Real Balances, the Price Level and the Unit of Account

A bstract It is argued that Patinkin's introduction in his 1956 book of the stability analysis of the price level resulted in great measure from his reading of Wicksell's 1898 Interest and Prices. Both Patinkin and Wicksell based their treatments of the stability of the price level on what Patinkin used to call the "real balance effect." That effect, however, does not operate under Wicksell's assumption of a competitive "pure credit economy", where all transactions are carried out by bookkeeping transfers, and the unit of account is the same unit in which the accounts of banks are kept. In that case, Patinkin showed in the second (1965) edition of his book that the real balance effect–and, by that, the stability of the price level–would still be a feature of the system if profit maximizer banks held reserves, created by the central bank to settle temporary imbalances at the clearinghouse. According to Wicksell, on the other hand, a pure credit economy should consist of a central bank that attracts and remunerates deposits at the same interest rate charged for its loans, plus profit maximizer financial intermediaries that lend money for risky projects. The basic rate of interest set by the central bank decides, accordingly, the price level in such an economy. Wicksell's and Patinkin's approaches differ from the view put forward in the 1980s by the so-called "new monetary economics" that the key to price level stabilization is the separation of the function of money as the unit of account from its function as the medium of exchange in pure accounting systems of exchange.     

Between Wicksell and Hayek

A bstract Mises' Theory is grounded on the "ultra-Wicksellian" idea that the pure credit system represents the working of a modern monetary economy, and that forcing banks to raise the rate of money interest does not need to operate through some binding bank-liquidity constraint. It is the rise in the relative price of consumption goods against production goods that accounts for the end of inflation. According to Mises, it is in the power of the banks to resist this readjustment; in this event, the only end to hyperinflation comes from the breaking of the monetary system. Hayek develops the second side of Mises'argument, the capital-allocation effect, while the first side, the ultra-Wicksellian picture of the monetary economy, is either weakened or taken for granted. Wicksell's 1914 reaction to Mises'book is recalled. Some criticism of Mises'readjustment mechanism from a Keynesian-Schumpeterian point of view is offered in the concluding remarks.     

On the Analytics of Wicksell: A Comment on Abiakpor

Three essential concepts of Wicksell's contributions are probed. (1) Wicksell's commingling of a barter economy with a money economy led to a logical pitfall in his cumulative-process paradigm. (2) Wicksell sought to deduce a cumulative process involving price-level movements from an economy without money and, therefore, without a general price level. (3) Wicksell's idealized pure credit system can be logically reconciled with his law of the demand for money creating its own supply.     

国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响分析——基于VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的研究

采用VAR模型和冲脉效应函数实证分析国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响分析,结果显示：货币供给量、利率和国际短期资本流动之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系;利率变动和货币供给之间反向变动;国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响已经显现,然而国际短期资本流动带来的货币供应量的上升被国家货币政策的调控所冲销,而且冲销力度过大;由于我国对资本流动进行管制,因此隐蔽性资本流动对货币政策效果目标的影响不明显;进出我国的国际短期资本的套利动机虽然不显著,但是国际短期资本流动和利率的关联性已经很强。最后,以实证结果为依据,提出相应对策建议。     

The Evolution of the Sophisticated Quantity Theory: Marshall vs.Wicksell on Transaction Demand

When the money supply increased exogenously, Marshall's vs. Wicksell's versions of short run inflation transmission are shown to be different because of their ideas on money demand. During the approach to monetary equilibrium, the implication was that the demand for transactions cash balances would have to increase in order for inflation to stop. Marshall focused on the real, while Wicksell focused on the nominal, demand for such balances; Marshall assumed velocity of money was constant, while Wicksell assumed it to be pro-cyclic. These assumptions about money demand caused them to make different predictions on how much prices would eventually rise: Marshall described a price-undershoot, while Wicksell described a price-overshoot mechanism.     

Knut Wicksell and the Classical Economists on Money, Credit, Interest and Price Level: A Comment on Ahiakpor

ABSTRACT This is an invited response to James C. W. Ahiakpor, "Wicksell on the Classical Theories on Money, Credit, Interest and the Price Level." American Journal of Economics and Sociology 58 (July); 435-457. Wicksell's contribution was to introduce Böhm-Bawerk's theory of capital into a monetary setting.     

The monetary policy strategy of the Bank of England in 2020–21: An assessment

Excessive money creation during the Covid pandemic has resulted in Britain's worst episode of inflation since 1990–91. The backdrop to this failure of monetary policy is the Bank of England's aggregate demand/aggregate supply framework together with the Monetary Policy Committee's neglect of broad money. An alternative way to operate monetary policy is urgently needed. A significantly improved monetary policy outcome could be achieved by shifting from trying to steer the economy using interest rates and quantitative easing or quantitative tightening to reliance on the relative stability of income velocity (the ratio of nominal GDP to broad money) as a means of managing aggregate demand.     

Monetary policy,global liquidity and commodity price dynamics

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. Aggregated data for major OECD countries are therefore analysed in a cointegrated VAR framework. Our empirical results for the period ranging from the 1970s to 2008 support the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity and goods prices movements.     

金融发展中的货币需求稳定性研究--基于1994～2005年的协整分析

本文以经济改革和金融发展为背景，从经典货币需求理论分析出发，运用协整检验和误差校正模型对我国货币需求的稳定性问题展开研究。分析结果表明，货币需求、国民收入、利率和通货膨胀率之间存在协整关系；我国货币需求主要受收入因素影响而呈现出长期稳定性特征，长期稳定的货币需求对其即期增长的抑制作用不明显，货币需求函数表现出高收入弹性和低利率弹性，而利率的外生性削弱了货币需求对利率的调节作用；基于VEC模型的短期Granger因果检验，支持货币量、利率和货币政策最终目标之间短期均衡关系的存在。     

Reexamining the term structure of interest rates and the interwar demand for money

This paper reexamines whether the term structure of interest rates, rather than merely a single interest rate, should be included in the demand for money of the interwar era. In contrast to earlier work, we use cointegration techniques to model the equilibrium/error correction process, and find that a sufficiently rich dynamic model using a single interest rate has considerable explanatory power. Nevertheless, we conclude that the inclusion of the term structure may help to explain the turbulent monetary dynamics of the Depression era.     

Annals of a Crusade: Wright Patman and the Federal Reserve System

A bstract . As a Congressman from Texas from 1929 to 1976, Wright Patman supported Populist-type legislation which aided farmers, small businessmen and consumers. His perennial target in the postwar era was the Federal Reserve System. He resented the central bank's political independence and believed that "high" interest rates brought about by monetary policy actions benefited banks and harmed ordinary citizens. Rather than attacking the Fed's control of monetary policy directly, Patman tried to improve Fed accountability to Congress by subjecting the Fed's budgetary process and expenditures to government audit and/or the Congressional appropriations process. Despite numerous investigations, reports, and pieces of legislation, Patman's crusade failed to achieve its objectives. Nevertheless, his persistent criticism over 25 years undoubtedly created an atmosphere for change. Eschewing the indirect approach, Patman's political heirs in Congress demanded and received more accountability (and less secrecy) from the Fed regarding monetary policy objectives. Ironically Patman's abortive crusade may have paved the way for their later success.     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

POST-KEYNESIAN MONETARY THEORY: SOME ISSUES

Abstract. Post-Keynesian monetary theory is of increasing interest to economists in the light of world-wide financial deregulation of financial markets. This paper offers an exposition of the main issues in this area, including an overview of the most divisive issue, that of interest rate determination, and hence, the slope of the money supply function. Post-Keynesian monetary theorists divide into two camps with respect to the determination of interest rates: the 'markup school'and the 'liquidity preference school'. It is argued in the paper that the post-Keynesian theory of the business cycle, which incorporates endogeneity of the money supply, requires a liquidity preference notion of interest rate determination.     

Central Bank or Monetary Authority? Three Views on Money and Monetary Reform

The global financial crisis triggered profound changes in the conduct of monetary policy, with ultra‐low interest rates and asset purchases becoming the main policy tools. This represents a major shift towards interventionism that even ten years after the global financial crisis has not been reversed. In this article, I assess three views on money and monetary reform. I argue that a central bank regime with a narrow focus on refinancing property at market interest rates remains an attractive alternative to the current regime and provides an essential benchmark to assess the progress of monetary normalisation.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE GERMAN BUNDESBANK AFTER 1983

A cointegrated VAR model describing a small macroeconomic system consisting of money, income, prices, and interest rates is estimated on split sample data before and after 1983. The monetary mechanisms are found to be significantly different. Before 1983 the money supply is controllable and expansion or contraction of money supply has the expected effect on prices, income, and interest rates. After 1983 the conventional mechanisms no longer seem to work. The empirical analysis points to the crucial role of the bond rate in the system, particularly for the more recent period.     

WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING?

This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary policy regime per se as distinct from other shocks. For this purpose, we estimate a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the classical Gold Standard era. We use this model to conduct a counterfactual experiment to assess whether a monetary policy conducted on the basis of a Taylor rule characterizing the Great Moderation data would have led to different outcomes for macroeconomic volatility and welfare in the Gold Standard era. The counterfactual Taylor rule significantly reduces inflation volatility, but at the cost of higher real‐money and interest‐rate volatility. Output volatility is very similar. The end result is no welfare improvement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations from the economic and financial crisis are included. Both excess measures and the spread are useful for predicting inflation.     

Price and interest rate dynamics induced by multiperiod contracts

This paper suggests a mechanism by which nominal price rigidities can create a transmission mechanism for monetary shocks through relative price distortions in an economy with both spot and contract markets. The globally unique equilibrium time path of interest rates and prices following an impulse shock to the money supply is characterized. The model predicts that prices and interest rates cycle around the new steady state, with real interest rates initially falling and prices overshooting in the case of a positive shock. The volatility of spot prices and interest rates exceeds that of contract prices.     

中国银行间市场利率结构、信息溢出与形成机制研究

目前全球主要货币市场已高度融合,而中国银行间市场各利率品种间信息传递尽管比国际市场间更顺畅,但利率结构矛盾突出。同一品种不同期限之间利率差异显著,但缺乏共同时间价值基础;同一期限不同品种之间利率水平较接近,但功能定位不清晰。且这些矛盾与利率的内在形成机制一致。此外,利率水平偏高、风险居中的特征使得中国银行间市场对国际资本很有诱惑。这些问题如不尽快解决,中国银行间市场就很难在利率市场化中彰显基础作用,甚至可能在开放过程中被国际游资操纵。     

Can money matter for interest rate policy?

In this paper it is shown that money can matter for macroeconomic stability under interest rate policy when transactions frictions are non-negligible. We develop a sticky price model with a shopping time function, which induces the marginal utility of consumption to depend on the (predetermined) stock of money held at the beginning of the period. Equilibrium stability and uniqueness are then ensured by a passive interest rate policy, whereas activeness is associated with an explosive equilibrium. By reacting to changes in beginning-of-period real balances, the central bank can restore stability. Interest rates further depend on lagged real balances even if the central bank acts in an entirely forward-looking way, as under discretionary optimization. If the model is revised such that end-of-period money provides transaction services, money can in principle be neglected for a stabilizing interest rate policy. Discretionary monetary policy is, however, likely to be associated with equilibrium indeterminacy, which can be avoided if interest rates are set contingent on beginning-of-period real balances.