中国和澳大利亚经济关系的战略转型与升级

当前,中国和澳大利亚经济关系面临着转型和升级。在双边层面上,中澳双方经济合作的结构需要优化;在亚太区域层面上,双方需要推动亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)和"区域全面经济合作伙伴协定"(RCEP)的实现,同时要合作推动亚太地区的结构改革,促进亚太一体化。此外,中澳双方需要增加战略信任,规避区域安全冲突。     

亚太地区区域贸易安排的发展与上海的作用

本文从当今世界多边贸易主义与区域贸易主义并行发展的实际出发,阐述了亚太地区区域贸易安排的发展和中国积极融入亚太地区区域贸易安排的实践以及上海在亚太区域贸易安排中的作用。     

“印太经济框架”的战略意蕴与中国对策

“印太经济框架”是美国为弥补“印太战略”的经济短板而制定的非传统型经贸协定，在议题设置上聚焦新兴经济领域，旨在保障美国在关键领域竞争中的主导权，实现对华开展地缘经济遏制以重返亚太地区经济合作机制的目标。尽管“印太经济框架”的效能还有待观察，但由于其针对中国的战略意蕴极其明显，可能对中国数字经济等新兴产业、“一带一路”倡议中的基础设施建设和制造业发展、中国在亚太地区供应链体系中的地位、企业的正当经济活动和话语权产生影响。有鉴于此，中国应以开放促改革，从双边、区域和多边层面推动亚太地区国家间经济合作，通过强化规则建构能力以提升话语权，更好地应对“印太经济框架”。     

透视中国的“新区域主义”——评《经济全球化新趋势下我国自由贸易区的战略定位研究》北大核心SSCI

21世纪以来,世界经济的区域主义开始新一轮浪潮。区域贸易协定增长迅猛,重叠交错,形成了复杂的“意大利面碗”效应。区域经济合作正彰显出规则化、巨型化、跨区域、多边化和机制化等特征。区域贸易安排的内容也逐步由市场准入问题向规制融合问题扩展。美国主导的“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定”（TPP）和“跨大西洋贸易投资伙伴协定”（TTlP）谈判以高端开放为契机,企图掌控和影Ⅱ向下一轮国际贸易规则的主导权,这些对我国全面深化改革和参与全球经济治理形成了新的挑战。随着我国主要贸易伙伴相关战略的调整,我国也需要对自由贸易区战略进行不断完善以适应风云变幻的国际经济形势。     

中国亚太地区区域贸易协定发展问题与对策研究

党的十八大报告强调"加快实施自由贸易区战略,加强双边多边经贸合作",为中国区域经济一体化指明了方向。中国亚太地区区域贸易协定建设经历了奠定基础、正式起步和稳步发展三个阶段,取得了一定的成绩。但在中国亚太地区区域贸易协定发展中存在着主导地位优势不突出、政治安全问题严峻、合作目标定位层次低等问题。为了能更好地推进亚太地区区域经济合作进程,中国应理性处理国家安全问题,构建以中国为核心的亚太经济一体化组织,提高合作目标层次。     

中国参与亚太区域一体化的两种路径选择

区域一体化在近十年内加速发展,成为替代多边贸易体制的重要形式,而亚太地区各种区域一体化机制对我国经济利益至关重要,与该地区各经济体达成的一体化协议和安排也成为影响我国外贸战略的重要因素。在亚太地区,自由贸易区是最为活跃的一种方式。从成员范围和主导权来看,已有和正在构想     

析东南亚地区主义的发展——从马来西亚与东盟关系的视角

通过分析马来西亚与东盟的关系,可以管窥到东南亚地区主义发展的特征与走向:未来发展摇摆于东亚地区主义与亚太地区主义之间,更倾向于向东亚地区主义方向发展;东盟不可能象欧盟那样高度机制化;具有明显的地域特色;仍在发展之中,充满着很多变数。     

新干预主义背景下全球经济治理的变革

新一轮的干预主义给全球经济治理带来危机,特别是对现有以新自由主义为基础的治理体系造成动摇。新干预主义的核心仍然是国家利益中心与保护主义,本质上应当是对全球经济治理的反动,但实际影响十分复杂。主要体现为：一是推动全球经济治理格局向划区域结盟对抗发展;二是改变了全球经济治理的基础,在响应全球化生产需要推动深度开放的同时,并行以扩展的“安全”原则;三是促使全球经济治理机制从多边主义重返大国中心主义。这些方面的变化反映着全球经济治理螺旋式上升的轨迹,也反映了广泛的新干预主义仍然重视对外参与治理,因此最终不可能逆转全球化的发展方向。     

顺应潮流积极参与世界双边FTA活动

<正>以全球FTA特别是双边自由贸易的迅速发展为标志,世界经济区域化、一体化进入了以双边自由贸易为主的新阶段,出现了新的特点。中国在加入WTO后,积极参与区域经济合作和双边FTA是拓展对外经济和贸易增长空间,发挥比较优势,加快经济发展的重要措施。这不仅符合我国政治、外交和安全利益,也为我国现代化建设创造一个良好的国际环境。     

新区域主义范式下对我国区域合作治理的分析与思考

自20世纪以来,随着社会和经济快速发展,西方发达国家的城市化水平不断增进,向外扩张和向内集聚的城市发展模式使得其规模从原来的单一分散到冗杂繁复从而发展到后期的逐渐外延,区域合作的协调运作和城市功能重构成为必然。新区域主义理论在全球区域经济一体化的趋势中诞生,结合我国当前区域治理战略转型的困境分析,在新区域主义范式的催生下形成的区域合作治理实践对我国社会经济转型期加强城市管理具有重要的借鉴意义。     

TPP国家经济的比较性分析及影响研究

TPP作为一个APEC框架下的多边自由贸易协定,随着2009年美国的高调加入,引发了全球尤其是亚太经济体的广泛关注。但现有文献的研究多集中于政治战略层面,缺乏从某一具体层面对TPP进行深入剖析。本文结合TPP谈判的最新进展,从经济总量、贸易总量及贸易结构多角度对TPP国家经济进行比较性分析,进而研究TPP对亚太区域经济一体化产生的各种影响。     

Bilateralism, multilateralism, and the quest for global free trade

We develop an equilibrium theory of trade agreements in which both the degree and the nature (bilateral or multilateral) of trade liberalization are endogenously determined. To determine whether and how bilateralism matters, we also analyze a scenario where countries pursue trade liberalization on only a multilateral basis. We find that when countries have asymmetric endowments or when governments value producer interests more than tariff revenue and consumer surplus, there exist circumstances where global free trade is a stable equilibrium only if countries are free to pursue bilateral trade agreements. By contrast, under symmetry, both bilateralism and multilateralism yield global free trade.     

“一带一路”背景下制度距离对我国向中东和北非出口贸易影响研究

中东和北非国家是我国"一带一路"倡议的重要合作伙伴,该地区各国经济发展水平和制度环境迥异,在经济制度和政治制度方面与我国存在较大差异。基于全球治理指数和经济自由度指数相关数据,分别计算出我国与中东和北非地区24国的政治制度距离和经济制度距离,并采用2007~2016年我国对该地区的出口贸易数据,借助引力模型实证分析双边制度距离对我国出口贸易的影响及出口潜力情况。结果发现,我国与中东和北非国家政治制度距离和经济制度距离均存在临界值;只有当制度距离超过临界值时才会对我国的出口贸易产生负向影响。通过贸易潜力测算发现,我国对中东和北非部分国家出口贸易潜力巨大。最后,就如何减少双边制度差异提出建议。     

New Bilateralism in the Asia–Pacific

This paper reviews recent changes in the geographic pattern of regional trading agreements (RTAs), focusing on examples from the Asia–Pacific area. The general pattern is one of new bilateral agreements combined with a trend towards continentalism. The new trend towards bilateralism can be explained largely by a fear of countries being excluded from their major markets as other countries secure preferential and superior access to these markets. This pattern is creating many intersections between RTAs with consequential multi–tiered preferences and multiple systems of trade rules. Viewed dynamically, however, this pattern may have positive effects on world trade. It mitigates the effects of large continental RTAs and may lead to coalescence or enlargement of RTAs. The paper reviews models which ask the important question as to whether this process will progress all the way to free trade for the world economy.     

The Political Economy of United States’ Free Trade Arrangements

Far from being the leader, the US has been a ‘domino’ belatedly falling into line in the global rush toward bilateral and regional free trade arrangements. Often the initiative for negotiations has come from seemingly weaker trading partners. Once in the game, however, and aware of the asymmetries of market power and issue salience that enhance US bargaining leverage, the US has been aggressively pursuing a variety of commercial and diplomatic interests, both tactical and strategic, that include bolstering local democratic institutions and processes of economic reform, strengthening US security ties, accelerating region‐wide commercial liberalisation by allying with a regional leader, establishing new precedents to use as bench markers in future trade negotiations, and otherwise using free trade accords to advance its comprehensive global trade policy agenda. Bilateralism and regionalism have opened the door to an explicit introduction of political criteria, in contradiction to GATT/WTO apolitical universalism. While often reactive to the initiatives of other nations, the US has not been indiscriminate, deflecting the entreaties of suitors where US international political economy interests are not served.     

政治距离、文化差异与中国的对外贸易

政治利益与决策如何影响经济成为近年来学者关注与争议的焦点。文章基于中国视角,选取96个国家1992~2015年度数据为样本,实证考察了双边政治距离、经贸往来与文化差异之间的互动关系,结论如下:首先,政治距离显著降低了中国与贸易伙伴国间双边贸易往来,双边文化的差异则加深了彼此的政治风险,显著提高了双边贸易对政治距离的敏感性(偏效应)。其次,上述关系在不同时期呈现出不同的特征,尤其是在危机后的经济复苏阶段,中国与伙伴国的贸易往来却独立于双边的政治距离。最后,当对所涉及的贸易产品进行细分研究时,发现主要是在食品和活动物、制成品、机械和运输设备以及杂项制品这四类产品的贸易中显著存在上述贸易损害效应。     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Protection

In this paper, determinants of bilateral protection levels are empirically identified when controlling for multilateral trade regulation and importing‐country‐specific factors. Strong empirical support is provided of that three bilateral factors are influencing the bilateral protection level. Specifically, a country's protection level on goods from a trade partner is positively affected by the domestic import penetration of goods produced by the trade partner, negatively influenced by the intra‐industry traded share of these imports and positively affected by the trade partner's protection level on domestic goods. Moreover, very high explanatory values are provided in the cross‐section estimations, indicating that these determinants, policy regulations and importer‐specific factors jointly explain almost all of the variation in bilateral protection levels. The results are general in the sense that estimations are performed for a large sample of bilateral trade relations including 22 trade partners that are highly differentiated in terms of country characteristics. The overall results indicate that, to the extent that policy makers can affect bilateral protection levels under multilateral trade regulation, they act on political‐economy rather than economic goals.     

汇率变化与贸易平衡——基于中国与亚太主要贸易体的研究

基于中国与13个亚太主要贸易体的双边贸易数据以及最新的面板协整计量方法,本文对贸易平衡与汇率变动之间的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,人民币相对于各贸易伙伴的升值,在有限程度上能够减少我国的贸易盈余,改善伙伴国的贸易平衡状况。然而数据表明,贸易伙伴国贸易收支的恶化,主要还是由于其经济总量扩张导致对"中国制造"需求增长所致,汇率对于贸易平衡的影响要有限得多。对于美国等发达国家,要减少其相对于中国的贸易赤字,关键是要逐步取消对华技术产品的出口限制,试图通过逼迫人民币升值来改善其贸易平衡状况的想法忽略了问题的本质所在。     

Indonesia

Indonesia's long stability of over three decades came to a sudden end after the regional economic crisis of 1997–1998. The economic crisis not only shattered the Indonesian economy but also resulted in political turmoil. The national leadership has changed three times over the last five years. In such conditions, the confidence of foreign investors is very low. The present government has initiated a number of steps to restore political stability and economic recovery. This article provides useful information on the complex business environment, aimed to help foreign investors to develop a good understanding on key background knowledge for being successful in Indonesia. It reviews Indonesian historical development, political structure and climate, regional relations, and economy and foreign trade. Indonesia's infrastructure, legal framework, sociocultural setup, as well as market structure and potential, are also analyzed. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Free Trade Agreements and Governance of the Global Trading System

This article explores how far free trade agreements (FTAs) have strengthened or weakened global governance of the trading system. We open with an analysis of the altered political and economic context within which countries have come, in recent years, to assign a new importance to regional and bilateral trade agreements in their trade policies. We then consider each of the main provisions included in FTAs and comment on how these may separately affect the management of trade relations. We conclude with some observations of the broader trends affecting global governance that are associated with the spread of trade agreements as a whole.