新建隧道爆破振动对既有邻近设施的影响规律

为保证邻近既有线高速铁路在爆破施工过程中的运维安全,对其邻近隧道段进行爆破振动安全监测。以实测振动数据分析为基础,结合ANSYS LS-dyna有限元软件建立隧道爆破开挖对既有隧道影响分析的数值计算模型。通过仿真计算结果分析,得到隧道爆破开挖对邻近既有隧道内、路基、桥墩的爆破振动传播衰减规律。结合爆破振动经验公式对振动数据进行拟合回归分析,进而对50～300 m范围内邻近既有线隧道爆破施工最大允许安全药量进行计算。研究结果可为类似爆破工程提供可靠的实践经验和理论参考。     

温特线性与季节指数平滑法在气温中的应用

由于月平均气温是以一年为周期呈现周期性波动,因此用温特线性与季节性指数平滑法对气温进行预测。以福州市2000—2012年月平均气温数据为样本数据,利用MATLAB软件通过建立温特线性与季节性指数平滑预测模型对福州市2013年1—12月份的气温进行预测,并通过计算机的迭代运算,得到一组最佳的平滑常数（α,β,γ）,使得预测模型的均方误差MSE最小。研究结果显示,福州市月平均气温预测模型的平滑常数为（0.5,0.05,0.05）,均方误差MSE为1.9097,预测精度较高。     

软岩隧道支护结构受力特征分析

为研究软岩隧道支护结构的受力特征,优化软岩隧道支护方案及施工工法,以龙怀高速石凹顶隧道为依托,选取浅埋段、深埋段、破碎带断面进行现场监测,从支护结构受力的变化规律、空间分布、对比验证等,对围岩压力、接触压力、初支混凝土应力、钢拱架应力等进行系统研究。结果表明：软岩隧道采用CD法比预留核心土法施工扰动小,作用于支护结构上的荷载也相应偏小;作用于支护结构上的荷载与围岩破碎程度及所受构造应力大小呈正比关系;隧道施工中应尽量减少不必要的围岩扰动,充分发挥围岩自承能力。     

基于EMD-SE-LSTM模型的股指日内已实现波动率预测──以中证500指数为例

由于股指波动率具有非平稳、高嘈杂、非线性等特征,而传统的预测模型在建模时要求数据平稳、线性或近似线性,所以很难精准预测股指波动率。为提高股指波动率的预测效果,采用经验模态分解(EMD)、样本熵(SE)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)构建的模型对股指日内已实现波动率进行预测。以中证500指数为例,经过EMD分解得到一系列分量,再根据分量的样本熵大小进行重构,最后利用LSTM对重构后的各序列进行预测。结果表明,EMD算法对LSTM模型的预测精度有很大的提升,相较于传统模型,EMD-SE-LSTM模型在预测股指波动率时精度更高,拟合优度更好。     

基于百度指数的旅游景区游客量预测研究——对黄先开模型的改进

节假日游客井喷已经威胁到景区的生态环境。精准的预测节假日游客量能够为景区管理提供科学的支撑。黄先开等将网络搜索数据引入时间序列游客量预测研究,构建了基于百度指数的景区游客量预测模型,实现了对景区日接待游客量的有效预测,具有很高的实用价值。但该模型存在使用无法获取的预测当天网络检索变量和节假日景区接待游客量预测误差等缺陷。本文在修正变量问题的基础上,探讨了引入节假日变量提升模型预测精度的可能性,构建了新的预测模型,并以九寨沟为例进行了测算。结果表明:加入节假日变量后,百度指数游客量预测模型的整体预测精度比修正后的黄先开模型高了12%,节日预测精度高了21.5%。     

探讨大数据驱动下企业全面预算管理体系构建

随着信息技术的迅速发展和互联网的普及,大数据正成为企业管理和决策的重要驱动力。大数据驱动下的企业全面预算管理体系,为企业提供了更为准确、智能和灵活的预算管理方式。在传统的预算管理工作中,企业常常面临数据获取和整合困难、预测准确性不足、预算执行监控不及时等问题。而大数据驱动的预算管理,能够充分利用海量数据,通过展开数据挖掘和分析,提供精准的预测结果和决策支持,实现全面的预算编制、执行和评估。因此,将大数据与预算管理相结合,不仅是提升预算管理质量的关键,也是现代企业应对市场变化,实现资源优化配置和业绩提升的必然趋势。     

基于GS-LGBM的乘用车使用寿命预测研究

为准确预测乘用车使用寿命,提出基于网格搜索优化LightGBM（GS-LGBM）模型的乘用车使用寿命预测方法。通过对2014—2019年乘用车报废数据进行大量实验,并与9种流行的机器学习算法进行对比,结果表明,LightGBM在平均绝对误差（MAE）、中位绝对误差（MEAE）、均方误差（MSE）和拟合优度判定系数（R2）4项指标上均明显优于其他算法。为进一步提升模型预测精度,采用网格搜索算法对LightGBM进行参数优化构建GS-LGBM模型,效果显著提升（MAE降低11.02%）,说明该方法能够更准确高效地预测乘用车使用寿命。     

深圳市海平面高度预测相关研究

本文统计分析了2003-2013年深圳市的海平面高度数据变化状况,为了更有效地研究海平面高度的变化规律,在可利用数据较少、内部因素难以划定的情况下,需要做长期预测,因此,本文通过对现有所得海平面数据不同方式的拟合,运用Matlab编程求解,分别得出了一元一次函数、一元二次函数、一元三次函数的函数表达式,然后将各自预测出的2009-2013年海平面高度与真实高度相比较,分析各自的误差情况,最终确立了更具实效性的一元线性拟合模型,通过对模型的求解得出海平面高度随时间的具体变化趋势,进而对深圳市在2020和2050年的海平面高度做出预测,并进行模型的检验,验证预测值的科学性和合理性。     

基于数据特征量挖掘技术的锅炉吹灰优化系统研究

随着国内大型火电厂越来越重视"节能减排"工作,各厂不仅对锅炉吹灰优化运行优化的认识与重视程度不断提高,还开发出了部分应用于生产现场的吹灰优化系统,但由于锅炉实际运行情况的复杂多变、运行参数多具有相互耦合特性使其真正的实际应用效果比较有限,因此此类系统并未被大规模广泛地使用。文章研究的阚山发电厂通过和上海明华公司共同开发基于数据特征量挖掘技术的燃煤锅炉受热面实时灰污监测与吹灰优化系统,研究了计算基础数据的预处理方法、燃煤特性对锅炉受热面灰污程度的影响因子、运行参数变化特征量的软测量方法、最终开发了以最小运行成本为目标的吹灰优化系统,该系统目前运行稳定,取得了不错的指导效果。     

11041工作面回风巷锚杆支护设计

锚杆支护设计合理与否是建设安全高效矿井重要一环。本设计根据工作面地质条件和开采条件,结合现场工程实践和矿压观测情况,采用理论计算和数值模拟相结合的方法进行初步巷道锚杆支护设计。并根据矿压观测数据进行分析,优化锚杆支护设计方案,得出合理的锚杆支护设计方案,有效的控制了巷道围岩变形。     

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

Stature growth in industrializing Argentina: The Buenos Aires industrial belt 1916-1950

A sustained long-term increase in average stature accompanied the process of import-substituting industrialization in the main suburban area of Argentina, the Buenos Aires Conurbano. This gain in net nutrition was attained before the rise to power of a re-distributionist political party: the Peronists. The article also provides evidence of a decline in average heights during the period 1939-1945, which challenges us to revise the traditional wisdom about the impact of World War II and Peronist social policies and its implications for the nutrition and health of children. The new evidence on heights shows also persistent social and regional differences over time that had not been documented before.     

The Transfer of Property Rights from the Public to the Private Sector in Hong Kong: A Critical Assessment

Abstract

The privatization idea may have lost some of its luster in recent years, but it remains relevant in today's socio-economic environment and is pursued consistently in industrialized and industrializing countries alike. Hong Kong has followed the general pattern in a manner reflecting its particular circumstances and its institutional modus operandi. The underlying logic may not appear highly compelling, from a short-term perspective, yet there are sound grounds for approaching the task positively, if viewed from a multi-year standpoint. Rather surprisingly, for such a quintessentially capitalist society, Hong Kong has not confronted the privatization challenge astutely on the political front and has handled it somewhat mechanically in managerial terms. The benefits to the community may have thus been more modest than one could legitimately expect, given the historical backdrop.     

Measuring performance: Ranking state success over two decades in India

This paper proposes new composite measures of relative and dynamic state performance to improve governance and delivery of public programs in developing countries with a federal structure. We illustrate the use of the indices to rank the performance of 19 major Indian states on two large development programs launched by the Indian government over the last two decades using publicly available data. Although we find volatility in performance over time, there exists a positive correlation between measures of initial (administrative) state capacity, development and accountability with program outcomes. Our findings have important implications for both the design and implementation of large-scale public programs across developing countries.