投资者的理性、偏好、生存性与股票市场的均衡价格

投资者的理性、非理性和非理性程度以及与此相关的生存性，一直是行为金融学关注研究的热点问题。本文在既定的理性与非理性定义的基础上，运用一般均衡模型和一般效用偏好函数，分析了完全竞争市场中理性投资者理性与非理性投资者相互影响下的几种生存情况，并导证出此两类投资者的均衡红利(消费)分布、单独生存和共同生存的条件。最后在此基础上研究了股票市场的均衡价格。     

互联网环境下非理性消费行为及影响因素研究

传统的消费者行为学都假设消费者是理性的,消费者都会根据利益最大化原则做出决策。但在实际的消费行为中,消费者还是会受到各种因素的影响导致非理性消费行为的发生,文章描述了网络消费者的特征变化,并基于网络非理性消费的表现,从网络购物群体消费特征、消费情景和营销活动刺激三个方面讨论在互联网环境下消费者的非理性消费行为的成因。     

互联网环境下非理性消费行为及影响因素研究

传统的消费者行为学都假设消费者是理性的,消费者都会根据利益最大化原则做出决策。但在实际的消费行为中,消费者还是会受到各种因素的影响导致非理性消费行为的发生,文章描述了网络消费者的特征变化,并基于网络非理性消费的表现,从网络购物群体消费特征、消费情景和营销活动刺激三个方面讨论在互联网环境下消费者的非理性消费行为的成因。     

房地产非理性消费行为研究

房地产市场非理性消费行为在户籍、是否独身子女、就业情况存在显著差异;消费动因和非理性消费类型对房地产市场非理性消费行为具有良好的预测作用。研究房地产市场非理性消费行为可以为政府进行房地产市场宏观调控和企业进行经营决策提供更多、更全面的参考和决策依据;同时,合理引导消费者房地产市场消费行为,从而减少房地产市场非理性消费行为因素,促进房地产市场平稳和健康发展。     

非理性投资行为的形成机理

投资在人们的现代经济生活中起到的作用越来越大,理性的投资可以得到理想的投资回报,为将来的大消费打好基础,但现实中的投资并非都是理性的,股票市场的大起大落、越来越多的投资陷阱等等,都有非理性投资的身影。本文从行为经济学的理论知识探讨了非理性投资形成的原因和机理,对非理性投资的表现规律进行了分析,结论有利于加深对非理性投资行为的认识,有效减少非理性投资给人们的生活造成的损失。     

房地产非理性消费行为研究简

房地产市场非理性消费行为在户籍、是否独身子女、就业情况存在显著差异；消费动因和非理性消费类型对房地产市场非理性消费行为具有良好的预测作用。研究房地产市场非理性消费行为可以为政府进行房地产市场宏观调控和企业进行经营决策提供更多、更全面的参考和决策依据；同时，合理引导消费者房地产市场消费行为，从而减少房地产市场非理性消费行为因素，促进房地产市场平稳和健康发展。     

现代消费函数理论述评

自凯恩斯提出绝对收入假说以来,现代消费函数理论在不断的发展。在对消费者的假设上,经历了非理性假设、到完全理性再到有限理性的认知过程：在分析影响消费的主要因素时,从不考虑预期收入到逐步加入预期收入及其不确定性来进行研究,并进而演变为运用了现代计量分析工具进行实证研究。     

现代消费函数理论述评

自凯恩斯提出绝对收入假说以来，现代消费函数理论在不断的发展。在对消费者的假设上，经历了非理性假设、到完全理性再到有限理性的认知过程：在分析影响消费的主要因素时，从不考虑预期收入到逐步加入预期收入及其不确定性来进行研究，并进而演变为运用了现代计量分析工具进行实证研究。     

微信点赞有圈套需理性

伴随着手机微信的广泛普及一些商家利用微信开展点赞营销日渐升温,其中商家有失诚信、不兑现承诺的情况普遍存在.对此,有关部门发出消费提示,提醒广大消费者点赞营销多圈套,微信点赞需理性,参与点赞营销要多留心.     

超大城市住房调控动态分析框架的思路探讨

基于货币幻觉、理性预期等相关理论,尝试建立从非理性情形到理性情形的超大城市住房调控动态分析框架,提出了“非理性预期”“接近理性预期”“理性预期”三种理性情形,认为住房调控是为了弥补在资源配置中市场调节的不足,在不同理性情形时住房调控的关注点和具体措施应有所差别。从贴近现实、稳定预期、回归理性的政策出发点考虑,超大城市住房调控应重点关注“非理性情形”的短期调控策略和“接近理性情形”的中长期调控策略。     

GM(1,1)模型在航材消耗预测中的应用

传统的预测方法很难对部分消耗数据少、影响因素不明确的航材进行准确预测。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,可以对"小样本"、贫信息"这类航材进行更为准确的消耗预测。     

循环消费中的社区商店模式研究

循环消费是循环经济在流通领域的重要表现形式,循环消费能使旧货和产品在流通领域实现再次流通和周转,使人、资源、环境得到协调发展。社区商店是可以在我国积极推行的一种循环消费模式,目前我国的社区商店主要分为慈善型和中介型两种,社区商店存在供给和需求不对接、管理人员缺乏、管理制度不完善的问题,需要从这三方面加强社区社区商店的规划和管理。     

Demand for cash with intra-period endogenous consumption

We extend the literature on the demand for money by relaxing the assumption of a constant rate of consumption. Although total consumption is still fixed over the period, agents can choose more than one rate of consumption and cash depletion in the period to minimize the cost of money management. Consistent with empirical evidence, we find that agents do not smooth intra-period consumption. Instead, their rate of consumption will be positively related to their cash position. This positive correlation depends on the volatility of the consumption process.     

政府审计、公款消费与费用操纵

采用双重差分方法实证检验政府审计对国有企业公款消费的影响,研究发现：在政府审计介入当年及以后年度,被审计的国企控股上市公司消费性现金支出费用化率和波动性显著下降,公款消费实质性减少,公款消费计入存货的费用操纵行为显著减少,政府审计对公款消费的监督和治理职能得以证实;然而,管理层仍然可能会将消费性现金支出转入非流动资产处置损失等营业外支出科目,并且在政府审计介入之后,消费性现金支出的粘性并没有显著降低,可见政府审计并没有完全解决公款消费相关的代理问题。     

Consumer credit and consumption forecasts

Recent advances in the theory of consumer behavior indicate that consumption may exhibit non-linear dynamics characterized by occasional surges. Building upon them, and taking explicitly into account the forward-looking nature of consumption, this paper argues that rising consumer debt can signal such surges, as well as the consumption underprediction which will occur if they are not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting. This insight is tested with and strongly confirmed by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts for the USA. The results should be of interest not only to professional forecasters and policy-makers, but also to theoretical economists and econometricians who study non-linear dynamic models.     

Implementation of competitive nonlinear pricing: tariffs with inclusive consumption

The paper studies how the optimal nonlinear quantity-payment allocation can be truthfully implemented by optional tariffs in a differentiated goods duopoly. Consumers choose from a menu of tariffs and are subsequently billed according to this. We find that implementation by simple two part tariffs may not be a feasible strategy in a duopoly because the optimal nonlinear tariff exhibits a convexity for lower quantities. We show that the optimal outcome can be implemented if the firms can use two part tariffs with inclusive consumption. The fixed fee includes a free consumption allowance, whereas subsequent consumption is charged according to a steep unit price. That way the firm is able to secure voluntary participation without violating the incentive constraint. The paper shows some examples from the telecommunications industry where firms offer two part tariffs with free call minutes to low demand segments.     

ENDOGENIZING CONSUMPTION IN THE INPUT‐OUTPUT MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Since the basic model of input‐output analysis does not take into consideration the income effect on consumption expenditure, we constructed a model which endogenizes consumption and breaks down integrated production inducement into Leontief and Keynesian effects in a generalized context and in two solution approaches. Using short‐term marginal consumption propensities, we estimated that Keynesian effects make up about 14% of the integrated inducement effects for Japan. The public services sector, which is not influential in the basic model, becomes very influential in consideration of Keynesian effects. Manufacturing and service sector products are the main targets of the expanded consumption. The impact of a change in exogenous final demand can be easily simulated by applying the suggested apparent input coefficient matrix to the integrated inverse matrix.     

城市交通系统的节能降耗技术政策研究

能源逐渐枯竭和环境日益恶化成为世界各国所面临的最严峻的问题.城市交通是能源消耗、温室气体和污染物排放不容忽视的领域,加快城市交通节能降耗技术的研究和推广,是我国应对全球性能源危机不可缺少的环节,也是实现城市可持续发展、构建资源节约型和环境友好型社会的重要举措和发展策略.本文分析了城市交通能耗状况,提出了城市交通节能降耗技术政策建议.     

Environmental depletion,defensive consumption and negative externalities

This paper analyses economic dynamics in a context in which the production and consumption choices of economic agents generate environmental degradation. Agents can defend themselves from environmental degradation by increasing the production and consumption of output, which is assumed to be a (perfect) substitute for environmental quality. We consider the cases in which agents can coordinate their actions or not, and we show that if the dynamics is conditioned by negative externalities (so that there is no coordination), then a self-reinforcing mechanism may occur leading to production and consumption levels higher than the socially optimal ones. A complete analysis of the dynamics and of the welfare properties of the stationary states is provided.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.