The new meaning of quality in the information age

Software applications are now a mission-critical source of competitive advantage for most companies. They are also a source of great risk, as the Y2K bug has made clear. Yet many line managers still haven't confronted software issues--partly because they aren't sure how best to define the quality of the applications in their IT infrastructures. Some companies such as Wal-Mart and the Gap have successfully integrated the software in their networks, but most have accumulated an unwidely number of incompatible applications--all designed to perform the same tasks. The authors provide a framework for measuring the performance of software in a company's IT portfolio. Quality traditionally has been measured according to a product's ability to meet certain specifications; other views of quality have emerged that measure a product's adaptability to customers' needs and a product's ability to encourage innovation. To judge software quality properly, argue the authors, managers must measure applications against all three approaches. Understanding the domain of a software application is an important part of that process. The domain is the body of knowledge about a user's needs and expectations for a product. Software domains change frequently based on how a consumer chooses to use, for example, Microsoft Word or a spreadsheet application. The domain can also be influenced by general changes in technology, such as the development of a new software platform. Thus, applications can't be judged only according to whether they conform to specifications. The authors discuss how to identify domain characteristics and software risks and suggest ways to reduce the variability of software domains.     

新经济时代网上银行发展趋势的探索和对策

近年来,随着计算机技术、通信技术以及网络技术,尤其是互联网技术的发展和普及,金融系统的业务处理和经营管理模式正经历着新的变革:货币形态从实物货币向电子货币方向演变;服务模式由柜面模式下的"人-人"对话向网络模式下的"人-机"对话演化;资金流动的载体从实体凭证向电子凭证过渡;银行概念从实体银行向虚拟银行方向发展."电子银行"就是以知识经济为背景,以电子货币为经营对象,充分利用计算机、通讯、安全等技术手段,突破地域、文化界限,服务于人们各个生活领域的金融实体.由于电子银行突破了地域界限、时间界限和行业界限,所以电子银行可以为客户提供全天候、全方位的个性化服务;电子银行软件带有智能化特征,能衍生出更多的金融产品;电子银行可以实行统一的授信体系,使信贷资源在商业银行内部达到最佳配置,从而使金融资产风险管理日趋完善.基于这些原因,各国银行业纷纷实施银行电子化战略,尤其是自1995年世界上第一个网上银行--美国安全第一网上银行(SFNB)诞生以来,网上银行如雨后春笋般出现,据估算,目前国内50余家网上银行的企业与个人客户总量超过1000万.     

Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.     

New strategies and a new paradigm for Shariah-compliant portfolio optimization

In this paper we analyze the effects of different strategies to construct Shariah compatible financial portfolios. The difference between conventional and current Shariah portfolio management is the application of sector screens and financial screens by which the asset universe is reduced. Yet, here different schools of scholars define different screening rules leading to significant differences with respect to compliance, but also with respect to performance. After analyzing this discrepancy we propose several new strategies to apply the inconsistent rule systems and a new paradigm for defining Shariah-compliance. Under this new paradigm compliance is attributed to the portfolio and not to the individual assets of the universe. We report results of an empirical study analyzing the potentials of these strategies and of the paradigm. We can show that under the proposed concepts Shariah-compliant portfolios can be realized which have return and risk profiles comparable to the conventional non-constrained portfolios.     

Financial data science: the birth of a new financial research paradigm complementing econometrics?

Financial data science and econometrics are highly complementary. They share an equivalent research process with the former’s intellectual point of departure being statistical inference and the latter’s being the data sets themselves. Two challenges arise, however, from digitalisation. First, the ever-increasing computational power allows researchers to experiment with an extremely large number of generated test subjects (i.e. p-hacking). We argue that p-hacking can be mitigated through adjustments for multiple hypothesis testing where appropriate. However, it can only truly be addressed via a strong focus on integrity (e.g. pre-registration, actual out-of-sample periods). Second, the extremely large number of observations available in big data set provides magnitudes of statistical power at which common statistical significance levels are barely relevant. This challenge can be addressed twofold. First, researchers can use more stringent statistical significance levels such as 0.1% and 0.5% instead of 1% and 5%, respectively. Second, and more importantly, researchers can use criteria such as economic significance, economic relevance and statistical relevance to assess the robustness of statistically significant coefficients. Especially statistical relevance seems crucial, as it appears far from impossible for an individual coefficient to be considered statistically significant when its actual statistical relevance (i.e. incremental explanatory power) is extremely small.     

Measuring the future : Statistics and the information age

If the information age is to be more than a slogan, we need to address the issue of how to measure its emergence, and how to assess developments within it. This may well pose challenges to our existing statistics-,since structural change can render established definitions and frameworks inadequate. So far, most discussion of this issue has been conducted within a tradition of counting up the ‘information workforce’. This article argues for a different approach, focusing on the generation, diffusion and application of new information technology (IT). It considers how far available statistics can be used to throw light on IT-related developments, provides some examples of what these data tell us about possible future developments, and examines the implications for the future of statistical frameworks and statistical analysis itself.     

A new paradigm for forecasting security returns in a market regulated by price limits

Numerous futures markets in the US and many stock markets around the world set a “limit” price before each trading session, based on the settlement price at the end of the previous trading day. Price limits are boundaries set by market regulators to restrict large daily fluctuations in the price of securities. Once the return limit is triggered, traders cannot observe the equilibrium return that would have prevailed in the absence of such regulation. We develop an innovative approach for forecasting security returns (and prices) in a market regulated by price limits. Our forecasting model allows for multiple limit-hits. The model is robust, straightforward and easy for practitioners to use. A few numerical predictions are provided for hypothetical securities, and for seven traded futures contracts.     

超越均衡分析范式的相机抉择：一个汇率分析新思路

主流汇率研究理论的基本分析框架无外乎均衡分析，而这隐含的前提便是均衡汇率的存在。然而，这一前提未得到充分的论证。退一步讲，由于系统不可测性及模型不可测性，预测均衡汇率本身可能是徒劳的。因此，我们不妨摒弃均衡分析范式，用类似宏观政策分析的“相机抉择”的思路来分析问题。     

信息时代银行业的变革和发展思路

发端于上个世纪中叶的新科技革命,对世界技术进步和科技发展产生了广泛而深远的影响.以电子技术、网络技术为代表的高新技术突飞猛进,以信息产业为主体的新兴产业方兴未艾,信息化蔚然成为世界潮流.在此进程中,科技成果的商品化、产业化周期大大缩短,国际经济结构调整加速,经济全球化明显加快,人类社会的生产力得到空前发展.在赋予传统银行业空前机遇的同时,信息经济也带来了巨大的机遇和挑战.     

The Theory of Fair Markets (TFM) toward a new finance paradigm

In this paper I offer the Theory of Fair Markets (TFM) as an alternative to the ubiquitous CAPM/EMH that has been ruling unabated academia's financial economics for the last four decades. According to the TFM what counts is whether society is better off with a market system which is carefully monitored and corrected by a democratically elected government and social, labor, and other laws that serve as its infrastructure than with the notion of laissez faire. Admittedly, the theory is in its infancy and as such it is subject to both evolutionary changes/modification and exploratory empirical research. Without a doubt, it is also subject to criticism. Nevertheless, I contend that the EMH should be scrutinized and abandoned, because it is a reality-retardant theory, falsely implying Pareto optimality.     

Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock

Historically, attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle focus on narrowly defined monetary aggregates, such as non-borrowed reserves, the monetary base, or M1. Many of these efforts fail to find a short-term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations. More recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling. However, little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle, since in nearly every case, work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates, which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error. In this paper, we examine the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by (i) providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple-sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle, and (ii) testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted VAR.     

The new ecological paradigm and responses to climate change in China

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Chinese-Mandarin version of the revised new ecological paradigm (NEP-R) scale. In a sample of 515 Mandarin-speaking Chinese nationals, we first assessed the factor structure and internal consistency of the NEP-R and assessed its validity by examining associations with global warming risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Respondents completed the NEP-R scale, together with measures of risk perception and mitigation behavior. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a two-factor solution, reflecting ecocentric and anthropocentric worldviews, best fit the data. Multi-group path analysis revealed that respondents with stronger ecocentric and weaker anthropocentric worldviews perceived more risks associated with global warming. In turn, respondents who perceived more risks reported engaging in more global warming mitigation behaviors. But importantly, the path between risk perceptions and behavior was significantly stronger for highly educated respondents than for less educated respondents, suggesting that education may represent an important strategy for bridging the gap between perceived risks about global warming and action.     

Exploiting comparative advantage: A paradigm for value added research in accounting information systems

Following the lead of recent papers by Demski [Demski J. Is Accounting an Academic Discipline? Account Horiz 2007;21(2): 153–157], Fellingham [Fellingham J. Is Accounting an Academic Discipline? Account Horiz 2007;21(2): 159–163] and Hopwood [Hopwood A. Whither Accounting Research? Account Rev 2007;82(5): 1365–1374] which questioned the direction and value added of non-AIS accounting research, we discuss the state of research in Accounting Information Systems. AIS researchers face a significant hurdle in undertaking value added research given that the financial and human resources that industry devotes to research and development of AIS technology dwarf the capabilities of academic researchers. In these circumstances, we put forward a paradigm for AIS research based on the principle of comparative advantage, which is the powerful economic force that ensures that trade can take place even between parties where one has an absolute superiority over the other. It is our contention that if AIS academics are to succeed in creating value added research then they have to identify what they can do that the AIS industry, despite all its financial and human resource advantages, cannot or will not do. And what economic theory indicates is that such opportunities to add value always exist — if only academics are willing to seek them out. We illustrate our paradigm by analyzing three potential sources of comparative advantage for AIS researchers and discussing illustrative examples of research in each of these areas.     

Epistemology and public policy: using a new typology to analyse the paradigm shift in Finnish transport futures studies

The aim of the article is to present a new typology of paradigms of futures studies with specific focus on decision-making. Possible roles of futurists and other actors in long-term planning and decision-making processes are formed using logical analysis. The resulting seven schools of thought are interpreted in the light of literature of futures studies and planning theory. Connections to the philosophical discussion on the role of knowledge and values in policy recommendations are presented as well. Some futures studies methodological applications are attached to the paradigms. The new typology forms a gradient from technocracy performed by professionals to direct citizen participation. Finally, the paradigm shift of Finnish national transport futures studies is analysed using the new typology.     

Partial anticipation, the flow of information and the economic impact of corporate debt sales

Corporate debt sales have been regarded as 'no news' eventsbecause there is no significant price reaction on average totheir announcement. We explore the hypothesis that this lackof average price reaction to debt sale announcements is explainedby the partial anticipation of debt offers. Theory suggeststhat the demand for debt capital is fundamentally related tochanges in the sources and uses of funds, and we find evidencethat earnings are significantly lower, investment growth issignificantly bigger, and, for some issuers, debt refundingrequirements are significantly greater in the period immediatelyprior to issue than in periods well before and after the issue.We find that this preissue information conditions investors'expectations of issue, thereby affecting the cross-sectionalannouncement date price reaction to debt sales in two ways.First, announcement date price reactions are negative, on average,for unanticipated offers or for those offers where prior informationsuggests that an issue is unlikely. Second, holding the probabilityof issue constant, announcement date price reactions are significantlymore negative for offers that raise more capital than investorsexpected. These results are consistent with cash flow signalingand asymmetric information models of corporate financings.     

Inferring future volatility from the information in implied volatility in Eurodollar options: a new approach

We study the information content of implied volatility fromseveral volatility specifications of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton(1992) (HJM) models relative to popular historical volatilitymodels in the Eurodollar options market. The implied volatilityfrom the HJM models explains much of the variation of realizedinterest rate volatility over both daily and monthly horizons.The implied volatility dominates the GARCH terms, the Glostenet al. (1993) type asymmetric volatility terms, and the interestrate level. However, it cannot explain that the impact of interestrate shocks on the volatility is lower when interest rates arelow than when they are high.     

亚行专家称白银市为经济转型的新样板

中国的资源枯竭型矿业城市白银市现在正转变为一个工业中心,为其他面临矿业资源开始枯竭的城市提供了一个恢复再发展的样板。“甘肃白银市发展项目”的总投资额为16,153万美元,其中包括亚洲开发银行（亚行）提供的8,000万美元贷款,     

The brain, the mind, and societal and cultural learning: the emergence of a new paradigm of futures research

Research reveals that historical episodes of societal and cultural change have always been mediated by out groups which seek direct experience of reality and the personal transformation it entrains. The strictly rationalist model of cultural change used in Futures Research is out of step with this fact. A new model of cultural change is proposed and its implications for Futures Research discussed. The main implications are: Futures Research should be layered, in the sense that the various levels of mental modality should be made explicit in any piece of research; the dynamics of interaction between these layers needs to be explored: a complete Futures program would combine analysis of the inner lives of humans with scientific and social scientific data.     

Conditioning manager alphas on economic information: another look at the persistence of performance

This article presents evidence on persistence in the relativeinvestment performance of large, institutional equity managers.Similar to existing evidence for mutual funds, we find persistentperformance concentrated in the managers with poor prior-periodperformance measures. A conditional approach, using time-varyingmeasures of risk and abnormal performance, is better able todetect this persistence and to predict the future performanceof the funds than are traditional methods.