The Time-varying Impact of China’s Economic Rebalancing on Korea’s Exports to China

While China seeks to shift from exports and investment to a consumption-oriented economy and to increase the self-sufficiency rate of exports, this study uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) to examine the impact of economic structural changes in China on Korea’s exports to China over time. The study results suggest that the impact of China’s export shocks on Korea’s exports has weakened, which demonstrates the slowdown in regional production fragmentation, considering that Korea’s export goods are mainly intermediate goods. Instead, the influence of China’s domestic demand shock on Korea’s exports has expanded, which implies that China has increasingly become the final destination of intermediate goods made in Korea.     

The Geopolitics of China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative

China’s “One Belt, One Road” project is comprised of two components: the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB)—that were announced separately in 2013. Each component has the potential to transform the global geopolitical landscape through the construction of interrelated infrastructure projects including ports, highways, railways and pipelines. Such hard infrastructure requires the complementary construction of soft infrastructure, such as free trade and investment agreements, and other accords. We introduce a special section focusing specifically on the geopolitics of the MSRI that stems from a workshop hosted in November 2015 in Shanghai. The origins, scope and content of the MSRI are described, along with a summary of the current literature discussing the project, and dominant geopolitical representations. The MSRI is a geopolitical project that involves a number of actors (governments, private companies and Chinese state-owned enterprises) at a number of geographic scales (cities, provinces, states and continents). Arrghi’s twin logics of territorial and economic power help frame and connect the papers of the special section to illustrate the complexity and dynamism of the geopolitics of the MSRI. The articles provide insights into the geopolitics of a large connectivity project.     

The Geopolitics of Neighbourhood: Jerusalem’s Colonial Space Revisited

This article will focus on an ongoing process of Jerusalem’s contested urban space during the last decade namely the immigration of Palestinians, mostly Israeli citizens, to “satellite neighbourhoods”, i.e. Jerusalem’s colonial neighbourhoods that were constructed after 1967. Theoretically, this paper attempts to discuss neighbourhood planning in contested cities within the framework of geopolitics. In more details, we will focus on the relevance of geopolitics to the study of neighbourhood planning, by which we mean not merely a discussion of international relations and conflict or of the roles of military acts and wars in producing space. Rather, geopolitics refers to the emergence of discourses and forces connected with the technologies of control, patterns of internal migrations by individuals and communities, and the flow of cultures and capital.     

Determinants of India’s Exports

The objective of this paper is to examine the key determinants of India’s exports. The estimated equations show that the two variables influencing India’s export demand are the real effective exchange rate and world exports. The time trend variable which was introduced to take care of the stationarity problem and India’s GDP which is a proxy for availability also are statistically significant. Equations were also estimated at a disaggregated level of commodity groups. The article also focuses on measuring the relative contribution of the variables. For this, a new methodology is proposed. World exports which emerges as the dominant variable is however exogenous to Indian policy makers. This leaves nominal exchange rate as the tool available to policy makers. In the market determination of exchange rate, besides current account deficit, capital flows also play an important part. There is need to moderate the impact of large capital inflows on exchange rate through appropriate intervention so long as we continue to have current account deficit. An appreciating currency will erode the competitiveness of exports. Truly speaking, the critical factor is not so much exchange rate as competitiveness. In this context, maintaining domestic price stability and improving the productivity, particularly of the traded goods sector are equally important.

     

Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble

Exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out early 2014, the Russian ruble lost 50% of its value against the US dollar. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on natural resource exports, another factor behind the deterioration could be the sharp decline in oil prices starting in summer 2014. Using high-frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on forces underlying the ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.     

New Frontiers of Profit and Risk: The Fourth Industrial Revolution’s Impact on Business and Human Rights

ABSTRACT

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by the fusion of physical, digital, and biological technologies, will have profound social and economic consequences. But what impact will it have on human rights? This article critically interrogates key writings and speeches about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which requires reading between the lines of technical, business, and policy-orientated materials that rarely address human rights explicitly. The findings are a mix of good and bad news. First, the traditional linkage between economic competition and violations of bodily integrity is weakening as new forms of profitability in tomorrow’s digital ecosystems require empowered and creative individuals. However, these celebratory visions of the profitable interpenetration of our bodies, hardware and virtual worlds has a dark side. The next-generation of human rights violations arising from transnational business activities will be increasingly subtle, diffuse, and sophisticated.     

The Structure and Composition of India’s Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980–2000)

Abstract

This paper analyses structural change in Indian manufactured exports empirically for 143 (mainly manufacturing) industrial groupings. Trade indices such as Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and variants are used. Detailed econometric analysis is employed to examine structural change. The stability and the process of the intertemporal evolution of the RCA indices is considered. Three technology categories (high technology, medium technology and low technology) are analysed individually. Our results point towards substantial industrial restructuring in manufactured exports. We find evidence of despecialisation within India’s manufactured exports for the time period studied, which is consistent with increasing specialisation in a subset of manufactured exports.     

The ‘Global Food Crisis’ and the Geopolitics of Food Security

Growing anxieties over food security have recently brought sharp geopolitical overtones to debates about the agro-food sector. Contending that this ‘geopolitical moment’ highlights the mutually constitutive nature of geopolitics and political economies of food, we examine how dominant geopolitical framings of food security extend and deepen neoliberal models of agro-food provisioning, and highlight the need for further attention to these dynamics from political geographers. We develop a preliminary research agenda for further work in the field, focusing on the recent spate of global farmland acquisitions, questions of agro-food governance, the securitisation of hunger and obesity, and the environmental impacts of dominant agro-food systems. Throughout, we highlight the value of a counter-geopolitics of food security for re-situating agro-food politics outside hegemonic policies and institutions, and of the alter-geopolitics of food pursued by communities embodying concrete alternative food production and consumption systems.     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

The effects of old and new media on children’s weight

Childhood obesity rates have recently been rising in many countries. It has been suggested in the literature that changes in children’s media exposure may contribute to explaining this trend. I investigate whether or not this hypothesis is supported by data. I contribute to the literature by focusing not only on television but also on new media – computers and video games. The Child Development Supplement to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used for the analysis. To address the endogeneity of children’s media exposure, I use dynamic and panel data models. This is another improvement upon the existing literature. Additionally, an extensive list of control variables is included in the regressions. I find that video game playing or computer use has no effect on children’s body weight. On the other hand, television viewing may increase children’s body weight slightly.     

‘Geopolitics of Integration’ and the Imagination of South America

The main tenet of this article is to argue that the process of regionalisation in Latin America is entering into a new phase, where South America is consolidating an own process of regional integration. From being not more than a geographical expression, South America is rapidly becoming a political and economic entity with increasing international actorhood. One important difference to the past is that there is now a ‘core state’, Brazil, with a clear strategy directed towards deepening South American integration. Yet, Brazil is not alone; there is also an increasing convergence with other South American states and old rivalries are being substituted for increased cooperation in areas such as economy, infrastructure, energy, security or aid. As this article explains, the logic of action of the forces behind the process of integration can be understood by analysing the evolution of South American geopolitical current called ‘geopolitics of integration’.     

The effects of inflation targeting on Okun’s law

This article provides the first empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) matters for the extent of tradeoff between unemployment and output, that is Okun’s law. Our full sample results indicate that IT leads to a more negative Okun’s coefficient, suggesting that, for a given reduction of output, the introduction of IT is associated with a higher unemployment rate. Subsample analyses reveal that the whole sample results are mainly driven by the industrial subsample outcomes, not the developing counterparts. Our findings point out that IT not only influences macroeconomic variables per se but also affects the relationship between/among macroeconomic variables.     

China’s Contingencies: Critical Geopolitics,Chinese Exceptionalism and the Uses of History

This paper examines the intimate relationship between narratives emanating from China and their uses of Chinese history, and how such perspectives inform China’s geopolitical positioning and practices in lieu of its purported ‘rise’. Taking inspiration from the deconstructive impetus of critical geopolitics, this article contends that these historical claims to China’s rise constitute deterministic accounts, hinging on the notion of Chinese exceptionalism to provide discursive backing for a Sinocentric geopolitical order in the coming decades. This in turn downplays ‘alternative’ historiographies that can shed light on how the nature of China’s emergence may be more dependent on and shaped by the external environment than previously acknowledged. Building on the historical-geographical expositions related to the idea of contingency, this article demonstrates how China (whether it be in the past or present) cannot be seen as operating in a vacuum but has to constantly negotiate and adjust its strategy of engagements/interactions based on the specific demands imposed by world politics. Specifically, by elucidating these dimensions through cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan, it is argued that understanding China’s contingencies can raise important questions for us to critically appreciate the contextual actors, processes and relationships that differentially impact on China’s engagements in the world.     

Defence and Promotion of Desired State Identity in Russia’s Strategic Narrative

This article examines how the Russian state promotes and protects its preferred self-identity, using the conceptual framework of ‘strategic narrative’. Nation branding practices, including state-funded ‘mega-projects’ like the Sochi Olympics, have contributed to the narrative by characterising Russia as a welcoming, attractive destination. However, a more salient feature of Russia’s strategic narrative is intense ‘anti-Western’ and ‘anti-American’ political and media discourse, formulated to defend against rival, threatening narratives projected from other countries. Through analysis of official statements and state television content, this article demonstrates how determination to protect ‘great power’ and ‘European’ identities underlay Russia’s strategic narrative in 2014. It considers responses which the narrative has prompted, arguing that desired results in domestic reception have been achieved at the expense of unsatisfactory results internationally. Heavy-handed attacks on the identities of other states boost collective self-esteem among Russian citizens, but they fail to produce – and arguably obstruct – desired responses among foreign audiences.     

The effect of a wife’s retirement on her husband’s mental health

This article examines the effect of wives’ retirement on their husband’s mental health in Australia. By exploiting the exogenous variations in women’s retirement induced by the age pension qualifying ages, we find that spousal retirement status has a positive impact on the mental health of older men. This beneficial impact is found to strengthen with wives’ time spent in retirement. We show that wife’s retirement affects the constituents of her husband’s mental well-being in different ways. We also have identified four channels for the positive linkage between older women’s retirement and the mental health of their spouse.     

The impact of NCAA men’s basketball probations on the quantity and quality of student applications and enrollment

Collegiate sports programmes have been characterized as the front porch of a university, serving to publicize the institution and draw students to the door. Previous research in this area has indicated a positive correlation between athletic success and the quantity and quality of students attending the university. Conversely, we seek to analyse if athletic malfeasance, as measured by NCAA probations of men’s basketball programmes, negatively affects either the quantity or quality of students at a university. Our findings suggest that while basketball probations do not change the overall quantity of applications nor enrolment at a university, there is a significant adverse impact on the quality of freshman enrolling at the university as measured by Scholastic Aptitude Test scores. Our finding suggests that athletics do indeed serve as a front porch to a university and that athletic sanctions in men’s basketball have a detrimental effect on the average quality of students attending a university.     

The effect of lender and loan type on a borrowing firm’s equity return

Past empirical studies appear to support the idea that banks and finance companies do not differ in their ability to resolve adverse selection problems associated with issuing new debt. In this article, we find there is a difference. More specifically, using an event study we find larger abnormal returns for secured loan disclosures to lower quality borrowers when the lender is a finance company versus a bank. This suggests the market views finance companies as more effective than banks in evaluating/monitoring lower quality borrowers obtaining secured loans. We posit this is due to finance companies’ greater expertise in this type of lending, resulting from specialization. Our findings extend the literature on how lender identity can influence signals about firm value from loan disclosures. Our results also support recent findings that positive abnormal returns to borrowing firms may not be a general feature across the loan population, but may be restricted to smaller, lower quality borrowers. Finally, we are the first to provide evidence that the market takes loan type into account, not just lender and borrower type, when considering the information embedded in loan disclosures.     

The innovation and performance impacts of venture capital investment on China’s small- and medium-sized enterprises

This study examines the impacts of venture capital (VC) on performance and innovation of China’s small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME). Using unbalanced panel data of 2699 VC-backed and non-VC backed firms in China’s pilot over-the-counter equities market, namely the National Equity Exchange and Quotation (NEEQ) market, during 2005–2014, we find that venture capital financing not only spurs innovation in the Chinese market, but also exhibits significantly positive impact on financial performance. Empirical evidence reveals that syndication of venture capital investment as well as the reputation of venture capitalists helps to create value for VC-backed firms. However, no evidence is found that foreign VC-backed firms perform better than domestic VC-backed ones. The results are robust to a variety of specifications. Our findings imply that the VC financing is an effective channel to promote the development of SMEs at China’s multi-layer capital market and syndicated VC investments and venture capitalists with high reputation shall be encouraged to play a bigger role in nurturing innovation and entrepreneurship in the future.