US and East Asian Security under the Obama Presidency: A Japanese Perspective

The most important factor determining the structure of East Asia will continue to be the strategic relationship between the USA and China. It is the key component of the six party talks on the North Korean problem as well as nuclear nonproliferation. Japan is obviously a lesser strategic player, which is in a position to encourage middle-power security cooperation among the East Asian countries breathing between the USA and China. There is a conceptual, if not geopolitical, competition between Japan and China over an ideal future of East Asian regionalism, which the East Asian countries and the USA should join in a constructive manner.     

Transition economies in the Middle East: the Syrian experience

There have been no in-depth studies of the post-socialist transition in the Middle East. Syria’s experience is a useful one to explore given its historically important role in the region and its distinctive characteristics. The Syrian economic transition, from the early 1990s to 2011, was in two phases: an incremental liberalisation phase and a transition to a social market economy phase. During both phases, Syrian policymakers showed a preference for a gradualist approach to economic transition, rather than a big-bang approach. This was facilitated by oil revenues and subsidies from the Gulf States. The Syrian experience therefore has its own distinct characteristics, as well as elements in common with the transitions in other post-socialist economies.     

Re-Mapping Transnational Connections in the Middle East

there is no abstract     

American Overreach: Strategic Interests and Millennial Ambitions in the Middle East

This article argues that American actions in the Middle East designed to advance democracy and/or ‘moderation’ tend to yield perverse outcomes that frustrate the aspirations of local actors while undermining the values purportedly being promoted by the US. In order to explain these contradictions, we emphasise the linkage between policies of democracy promotion and long-standing American commitments both to millennialism and geographical omnipresence. As a result of these policies and geopolitical vision, we argue that ‘democracy promotion’ often devolves into a simple defence of American interest – by producing electoral outcomes intended to strengthen local agents seen as compliant with US regional priorities. In this context, the shift from democracy promotion to a policy of pursuing ‘moderation’ in the region, understood as support for American policies, is entirely coherent. Commentators tend to present this shift (particularly in the wake of the Iraq War) as recognition by US political actors of the imperial overtones embedded in more heavy-handed approaches to regime change. Yet, the call for moderation is itself profoundly intertwined with American millennial aspirations, while remaining remarkably devoid of clear content and thus equally amenable to manipulation for strategic ends. By way of conclusion, we suggest an alternative basis for a less intrusive American position in the region, one that rejects the need for an overstretched territorial presence and that is grounded in a substantive respect for local self-determination.     

Risk sharing in the Middle East and North Africa

This study investigates welfare gains and channels of risk sharing among 14 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries, including the oil‐rich Gulf region and the resource‐scarce economies such as Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. The results show that for the 1992–2009 period, the overall welfare gains across MENA countries were higher than those documented for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations. In the Gulf region, the amount of factor income smoothing does not differ considerably when output shocks are longer lasting rather than transitory, whereas the amount smoothed by savings increases remarkably when shocks are longer lasting. In contrast, both factor income flows and international transfers respond more to permanent shocks than to transitory shocks in the non‐oil MENA countries. The results also show that a significant portion of shocks is smoothed via remittance transfers in the economically less‐developed MENA countries, but not in the oil‐rich Gulf and OECD countries. Finally, for the overall MENA region, a large part of the shock remains unsmoothed, suggesting that more market integration is needed to remedy the weak link of incomplete risk sharing.     

Introduction to the Special Issue: Bordering the Middle East

ABSTRACT

Seven years after the beginning of the Syrian uprising and thirteen years after the transformation of Iraq into a federal state, one can notice the permanence of the nation state borders in the Middle East despite the worst prediction of a general breakdown of the colonial lines. But the Middle East, like no other region in the world, seems to face such a challenge to the state border system with the lasting internal fragmentations in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq. In reaction to this threat, governments erected sophisticated and costly fences at the edge of the states, transforming the regional landscape, raising issues of states’ sovereignty and regimes’ legitimacy; they are also highlighting the existence of the local communities (religious, ethnic or tribal) that are largely straddling across the international borders, defining alternative boundaries of belonging. This special issue intends to deal with two main questions: how do borders influence actors’ identity building? And how do identity politics at the local or national level re/define borders and boundaries? Six case studies stemming from intensive fieldwork research provide insights on state-community relationships through the lens of border issues in the Machreq and the Gulf areas thanks to different disciplinary approaches. Through IS territorialisation, Jordanian Bedouins, Kuwait’s national identity representations, Israel’s Lebanese residents, Oman’s construction of political sovereignty and representations of Gulf and Middle Eastern borders, authors highlight multi-scalar processes of identity building and representations through the bordering of the national, tribal or religious group.     

US Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: Strategy and Policy Issues

East Asian trade and investment policies have attracted US investment into the region, but these policies should be fine-tuned for the region to compete effectively for US investment inflow and increase their global share of US foreign direct investment. The changes should consider the needs of the US investors and East Asia's own economic development. Bilateral free trade agreements with the US are the likely channel for these changes, but the question is whether East Asia is ready for a comprehensive and deep liberalization. East Asia should work toward a regional investment policy framework to facilitate and expand the regional production network developed by the US foreign direct investment.     

International Boundaries and Borderlands in the Middle East: Balancing Context,Exceptionalism and Representation

ABSTRACT

Renewed academic interest in the Middle Eastern border is inevitable with the marked increase in fortified territorial limits across the region and the appearance of new borderland spatialities in the sovereign margins of the war-torn Iraqi, Syrian and Yemeni states. If the consequent spectacle of displaced populations confronting state power at the international boundary seems a defining image, this article concentrates on two other dominant, less publicised but still relevant border representations from the recent past: territorial definition and its deterministic association with conflict in the northern Gulf and the resource-driven finalisation of the peninsula’s territorial framework. This follows consideration of the significance of the borderland in the region. The author reflects back here on a long record of research into these issues and argues that all of these contexts must be acknowledged in any balanced appraisal of the Middle Eastern border. The article comments on the challenge of extending regional approaches to the study of borders and – on the centenary of the infamous 1916 Sykes-Picot treaty – acknowledges that the Middle East region’s experience of international boundaries continues to be depicted as exceptional. Unsurprisingly, it will conclude that there is no one typical Middle Eastern border.     

Open Market Operations in Australia: A US Perspective*

This paper investigates open market operations in Australia and incorporates some key features of these operations into a simple rational expectations macroeconomic model Where relevant, comparisons with US operating procedures are made. The major finding is that the Reserve Bank of Australia like the Federal Reserve uses the overnight interest rate as its policy instrument However, specific features of the Australian money market imply that direct control of the interest rate will be a more efficient policy in Australia than in the United States.     

Re-employment after Retrenchment: Evidence from the TCF Industry Study

Industry Commission inquiries into the passenger motor vehicle and textiles clothing and footwear (TCF) industries have focused attention on the employment prospects of workers who are displaced as a result of structural change. The fact that older and less skilled workers face considerable difficulty finding new employment is now widely recognised. In this paper we examine the post-retrenchment outcomes for workers retrenched from jobs in the TCF sector. The method of analysis–discrete-time event history analysis–improves on previous studies of post-retrenchment out-comes because labour market conditions are incorporated into the statistical model, redressing the over-emphasis on supply-side issues that characterise previous research. The analysis shows that local and national labour market conditions are important determinants of employment outcomes. Personal characteristics, household circumstances and ascribed skill are also important as employers use these attributes to filter potential recruits. The analysis suggests that the utility of retraining is variable, enhancing the employability of workers with the best prospects (based on their personal characteristics and skills) before taking up retraining but decreasing the employment chances of those with poorer prospects.     

Return migration and the transfer of gender norms: Evidence from the Middle East

Does international return migration transfer gender norms? Focusing on Jordan, an Arab country where gender inequality and emigration rates are high, this paper exploits unique data in which detailed information on female empowerment allows us to construct several measures of social norms in Jordan on the role of women, female freedom of mobility, and female decision-making power. Controlling for both emigration and return migration selections, we find that women with a returnee family member are more likely to bear traditional gender norms than women in households with no migration experience. Further analysis shows that results are driven by returnees from more conservative Arab countries, suggesting a transfer of conservative norms from destinations with highly traditional gender roles. We also show the implications of our results beyond perceptions for several economic and development outcomes, such as female labour force participation, education and fertility.     

外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究

理论研究普遍认为外商直接投资对经济增长产生了积极的影响,但对外商直接投资如何影响新兴工业化国家的发展过程的具体机制却研究甚少。本文从新兴工业化国家的视角提出并验证了有关外商直接投资对经济增长作用的两个假设:(1)外商直接投资有利于减小国内生产的非效率,是提高生产技术效率的推动器;(2)外商直接投资有利于加快国内技术进步,是生产前沿的移动器。因为这种双重作用,所以外商直接投资是新兴工业化国家赶超世界发达国家的一个重要因素。中国过去几十年经济快速的发展为验证这两个假设提供了一个理想的范例。     

Fertility and the puzzle of female employment in the Middle East and North Africa

Female labour force participation rates across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have remained low for over four decades even though, in the same period, women's education rapidly increased and fertility rates substantially decreased. This study provides a better understanding of this surprising phenomenon by testing whether the number of children affects the mother's labour supply (using twins at first birth as an instrumental variable.) Despite a strong first stage, it does not find statistically significant effects in the second stage, even in the combined sample of over 100,000 observations. This non‐result, however, does not rule out that fertility affects women's employment in these countries. But it rejects impacts larger than 0.09. Similar twin‐studies in the United States found effects between 0.12 and 0.31. The paper discusses the implications of this result in understanding the puzzle of female participation in MENA and in designing policies to increase women's employment.     

Moving Beyond Culturalism and Formalism: Islam,Women, and Political Unrest in the Middle East

ABSTRACT

Scenes of political unrest throughout the Middle East are often coupled with media reports and public debates in the United States that have a recurring theme: the relationship between women and Islam. After discussing the culturalist accounts that portray women as being in grave danger from Islam and in need of Western protection and supervision, this contribution examines an emerging trend in political science developed under the influence of the formalism of neoclassical economics. The study argues that despite ostensibly universal assumptions about human behavior and alleged objectivity, the theoretical foundations of neoclassical economics and its methodological formalism fall short in providing an alternative to culturalism, and, instead, reinforce the misperceptions and misunderstandings about the region.     

中东地区何以经济落后：经济停滞的历史机理

虽然一千年以前中东地区经济发展并不落后,但到了十八世纪,其经济发展滞后的特征已很明显。这一转变的原因是,当其对手西方世界向现代社会转化时,中东宗教的法律框架中的某些元素却停滞不前。对进化起阻碍作用的制度包括限制了资本积累的伊斯兰继承法;伊斯兰教法中公司概念的缺乏以及随之而来的市民社会的薄弱;还有穆斯林宗教与社团组织,它将大量资源限制在非生产性的组织之内来提供社会服务。这些阻碍经济发展的障碍在十九世纪的激进改革中大多都得以克服。但伊斯兰教法仍是一个阻碍中东经济发展的因素。该地区私人经济部门的薄弱以及人力资本的匮乏,是传统伊斯兰教法的两个突出后果。     

Globalisation,Reterritorialisation and the Political Economy of Tourism Development in the Middle East

A major limitation of most political economy studies of globalisation is that they view globalisation almost exclusively in terms of deterritorialisation. This essay, in contrast, emphasises how increases in the transnational mobility of people, capital and information can also result in reterritorialisation, which is the increased relevance of location and characteristics of place for global economic activity. In contrast to the erosion of the territorially based powers of nation-states often associated with deterritorialisation, the reterritorialisation of economic activity can increase the power and regulatory influence of state, societal and transnational agents who are able to exert control over territorial assets and the reterritorialisation process. The essay uses the concepts of deterritorialisation and reterritorialisation to develop a framework to analyse the changing political economy of one of the most understudied aspects of globalisation, the international tourism economy. With a focus on the development strategies of states in the Middle East and North Africa, the essay explores efforts to generate ‘experiences of place’ for tourists and territorial-based economic rewards for firms and their political consequences.     

从美国次级债危机看中国房地产金融市场的风险

自2007年8月份全面爆发的美国次级债危机愈演愈烈,巳成为继1998年亚洲金融危机以来的最大一场金融风暴.美国次级债危机对我国的房地产金融市场提出了警示.本文认为,目前我国的房地产金融市场与美国次级债危机爆发前有着许多相似之处.同时,我国的房地产金融市场又存在着特殊风险,因而应针对国内房地产金融市场的特殊问题,制定有效对策,化解风险.     

Low Mortgage Rates and Securitization: A Distinct Perspective on the US Housing Boom*

In this paper, we analyse the impacts of low interest rates and lax underwriting standards on the US housing boom around the beginning of the new millennium. We suggest a time-varying mean of the log price-to-rent ratio (PtR) to capture the persistent changes in housing prices. We show that the increasing latent trend in the PtR was significantly affected by the increased securitization of residential mortgage loans and decreasing interest rates, with the former effect being about three times larger than the latter. In the absence of securitization, negative interest rates would have been needed to reproduce an equally large housing boom since 2003.     

Labor Market Segmentation and the Implications for Public Sector Retrenchment Programs

Despite the importance placed on reducing public sector employment in sub-Saharan Africa, remarkably little is known about the labor market transition paths of departing public sector workers. This paper uses household survey data from Conakry, Guinea to establish evidence of labor market segmentation between the wage and nonwage sectors. An empirical model of the unemployment durations experienced by departing public sector workers finds that transition paths vary significantly according to personal characteristics that also affect the resulting earnings opportunities in segmented labor markets. Particularly, there is a marked tendency of females to enter quickly the nonwage sector, relative to males, and a negative influence of severance payments on wage sector employment acceptance.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 385–402. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech University, 208 Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, Virginia 24060-0401 and Cornell University, 3M28 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, New York 14853.     

中国三大经济地带农村居民收入差距研究

文章采用基尼系数和泰尔指数及其分解方法研究了我国东中西三大经济地带农村居民收入差距问题。基本结论是:我国三大经济地带农村居民收入差距处在一个相对平均的阶段,但其差距有随时间变化而增大的趋势。基尼系数分解结果表明,工资性收入是导致基尼系数增大的最重要的因素,而家庭经营性收入则使基尼系数减小,财产和转移性收入对基尼系数影响不大。泰尔指数分解结果显示,东中西三大地带农村居民收入差距的组间贡献波幅不大,但组内贡献变化明显,三大地带内部差异是导致地区间农村居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。