Energy,knowledge and economic growth

It is argued that the explosive growth experienced in much of the World since the middle of the 19th Century is due to the exploitation and use of fossil fuels which, in turn, was made possible by capital good innovations that enabled this source of energy to be used effectively. Economic growth is viewed as the outcome autocatalytic co-evolution of energy use and the application of new knowledge associated with energy use. It is argued that models of economic growth should be built from innovation diffusion processes, unfolding in history, rather than from a timeless aggregate production function. A simple ‘evolutionary macroeconomic’ model of economic growth is developed and tested using almost two centuries of British data. The empirical findings strongly support the hypothesis that growth has been due to the presence of a ‘super-radical innovation diffusion process’ following the industrial deployment of fossil fuels on a large scale in the 19th Century. Also, the evidence suggests that large and sustained movements in energy prices have had a very significant long term role to play.     

Energy substitutions,climate change and carbon sinks

We determine the optimal exploitation time-paths of two energy resources, one being depletable and polluting, namely a fossil fuel, the other being renewable and clean. These optimal paths are considered along with the two following features. First, the cumulative atmospheric pollution stock is set not to exceed some critical threshold and second, the polluting emissions produced by the use of fossil fuel can be reduced at the source and stockpiled in several carbon sinks of limited capacity. We show that, if the renewable resource flow is abundant, the optimal path requires that sequestration is implemented only once the ceiling is reached. Moreover, the reservoirs should be completely filled by increasing order of their respective sequestration costs.     

Energy substitutions, climate change and carbon sinks

We determine the optimal exploitation time-paths of two energy resources, one being depletable and polluting, namely a fossil fuel, the other being renewable and clean. These optimal paths are considered along with the two following features. First, the cumulative atmospheric pollution stock is set not to exceed some critical threshold and second, the polluting emissions produced by the use of fossil fuel can be reduced at the source and stockpiled in several carbon sinks of limited capacity. We show that, if the renewable resource flow is abundant, the optimal path requires that sequestration is implemented only once the ceiling is reached. Moreover, the reservoirs should be completely filled by increasing order of their respective sequestration costs.     

Efficient Management of Insecure Fossil Fuel Imports through Taxing Domestic Green Energy?

A small open economy produces a consumer good as well as renewable (green) and fossil fuel based (brown) energy. It imports fossil fuel at an uncertain price and suffers from carbon emission damages. Unregulated competitive markets are shown to be inefficient. The implied market failures are due to the agents' attitudes toward risk, to risk shifting, and the uniform price for both types of energy. Under the plausible assumptions that consumers are prudent and at least as risk‐averse as the producers of brown energy, the risk can be efficiently managed by placing a tariff on fuel imports (which is equivalent to taxing carbon emissions in the model at hand) and taxing green energy. The need to tax green energy contradicts the widespread view that subsidization of green energy is an appropriate means to enhance energy security in countries depending on risky fossil fuel imports.     

Extraction in Four Dimensions: Time,Space and the Emerging Geo(-)politics of Deep-Sea Mining

ABSTRACT

Despite the truism that less is known about the deep-sea than outer space, deep-sea mining (DSM) is being promoted as the next frontier of resource extraction. In 2019, Nautilus Minerals hopes to become the world’s first company to mine the deep seabed in the waters off Papua New Guinea (PNG). DSM thus stands at the threshold of becoming a matter of politics; it has provoked a wide range of geopolitical imaginaries variously relating to ‘resource security’ and ‘progress’, on the one hand, and environmental disaster and precaution on the other. However, these accounts do little to address the specific ‘nature’ of the deep-sea, seabed and their extreme location and materialities, and are instead framed by classic geopolitical concerns with interstate relations. Against this background and illustrated by examples centred on PNG, this paper argues that future engagements with the geopolitics of DSM are more accurately conceptualised by an engagement with time as well as three dimensional space. This includes the multiple spatial and temporal registers through which both the geology and ecologies of seabed and seawater operate. By highlighting the importance of resource temporalities, it suggests that the geopolitics of both DSM and extraction in extreme places more generally is not only spatially complex, it is also a matter of time.     

Environmental terrorism: a critique

As terrorism once again makes news headlines and attracts renewed attention from scholars, the usage of terms related to terrorism may well outpace the development of sound conceptualization of these themes. A case in point is environmental terrorism about which a small body of literature has already been written. The objective of this paper is to examine the theme of environmental terrorism by applying critiques of the more developed but similarly problematic area of environmental security. Three critiques of environmental security literature argue that there is insufficient clarity on how natural resources are linked to conflict, that the term ‘environment’ is not sufficiently clear as a guide to or boundary of a research area, and that the term ‘security’ prioritizes a realist, state-centric perspective that provides a limited perspective on relationships between natural resources and conflict. In this paper, the theme of environmental terrorism is subjected to parallel critiques as a way to examine the usefulness of this concept. Environmental terrorism, as a label, may be only partially helpful as a guide to future research that would also be aided by context-specific examinations of vulnerable natural resource and energy systems.     

Deterritorialisation and the Transformation of Statehood: The Paradox of Globalisation

Since the end of the Cold War, states and civil societies face a radically different security situation. In addition to state-to-state threats, transnational security issues have risen to previously unknown relevance. I will argue that – in order to create effective counter-policies against transnational threats – states must transform fundamental principles of traditional statehood according to the logic of global deterritorialisation. To develop this argument, the nature of changed security will be analysed which itself can be found in de-territorialisation: transnational actors withdraw from the territorial principles of traditional security, as best epitomised by transnational terrorism. Consequently, ‘national security’, developed according to the territorial ‘inside’-‘outside’-logic of the state, no longer counters those actors. States must elaborate deterritorial strategies. This development causes a transformation of the state since territoriality is the basic principle of modern statehood. Thus, the reassertion of the state in global security unveils a paradox: to react to deterritorialised security and to reassure their power in global politics, states must overcome their traditional principles of territorial politics and further the development of deterritorialisation.     

The economics of oil,biofuel and food commodities

We study the effects on the food price of introducing biofuels as a substitute for fossil fuel in the energy market. Energy is supplied by a price-leading oil cartel and a competitive fringe of farmers producing biofuel. Biofuel production shares a finite land resource with food production. A positive relationship results between energy and food prices. We establish that the equilibrium price of food will be growing as long as the oil stock is being depleted, and beyond if demand is growing. An analysis of the effects of the productivity of land use in either the food or the biofuel sectors is carried out. It is shown that, with a highly inelastic demand for food, an increase in the productivity of land in agriculture will decrease the price of food in the short-run, only to increase it in the long-run as the stock of fossil fuel is depleted.     

The economics of oil,biofuel and food commodities

We study the effects on the food price of introducing biofuels as a substitute for fossil fuel in the energy market. Energy is supplied by a price-leading oil cartel and a competitive fringe of farmers producing biofuel. Biofuel production shares a finite land resource with food production. A positive relationship results between energy and food prices. We establish that the equilibrium price of food will be growing as long as the oil stock is being depleted, and beyond if demand is growing. An analysis of the effects of the productivity of land use in either the food or the biofuel sectors is carried out. It is shown that, with a highly inelastic demand for food, an increase in the productivity of land in agriculture will decrease the price of food in the short-run, only to increase it in the long-run as the stock of fossil fuel is depleted.     

Tabloid realism and the revival of American security culture

At a time when notions like globalisation and cultural fragmentation are being used to describe the changing nature of international politics, a persistently conservative discourse of national security (re)surfaces in foreign policy literatures. The purpose of this essay is to analyse this ‘new’ discourse and sketch out some of its ideological intents. Referred to as ‘tabloid realism’, this discourse can be found in texts authored by American scholars such as Robert Kaplan, Samuel Huntington and Zbigniew Brzezinski. Tabloid realism is a discourse of geopolitics which resists the idea that territorial sovereignty and national security are currently being transformed. Imitating the narrative style of tabloid publications, tabloid realists seek to grab the attention of the public by providing highly sensationalistic and overtly panic-stricken representations of international affairs. By proliferating fear-inducing images of current realities and preparing for a soon to be anarchical future, tabloid realists hope to conservatively re-anchor the state to stabilising visions of national security, geographical borders, and economic interests.     

Austrian economics and climate change

The aim of this paper is to outline and defend an Austrian policy response to climate change. A privatised climate change policy, based on Austrian welfare economics, is the only way to defend to the greatest possible degree the liberties both of fossil fuel users and people whose property rights will be violated if carbon emissions cause climate change. Neoclassical and ‘Post-Austrian’ analyses of climate change are both theoretically unsound and impractical, in requiring for their implementation a foundation in reliable scientific knowledge that is not available. Anthropogenic climate change is a putative interpersonal conflict rather than market failure. The use of fossil fuels should be subject to side-constraints designed to avoid the infringement of other people’s property rights. Tort litigation would protect these rights, where necessary. Litigation would also promote the public understanding and even the advancement of climate science.     

Berlin’s electricity distribution grid: an urban energy transition in a national regulatory context

Germany has set ambitious targets to transform its energy system from being based on fossil fuels and nuclear to renewable energies, requiring electricity grids to be upgraded. As a result there is significant public pressure in some German cities to exert greater local control over electricity distribution infrastructure. A case study approach was used to investigate contestations around ownership and governance of Berlin’s electricity distribution grid. Actors at the local level perceive the national institutional framework supporting liberalised energy markets as not designed to adapt electricity distribution grids to the challenges of the Energiewende (energy turn) and to be instead hampering investment, innovation and the involvement of local actors. By analysing politics of grid ownership and governance, and emerging tensions between a national regulatory framework and more locally bounded energy system visions, our study contributes to the emerging academic debate on urban energy transitions.     

Legacy sectors: barriers to global innovation in agriculture and energy

The US national innovation system has a dual structure: part suited to rapid innovation, and part stubbornly resistant to change. The complex, established ‘Legacy sectors’ that resist change, particularly disruptive innovation, share common features that obstruct the market launch of innovations, over and above the ‘valley of death’ and other obstacles that have been the traditional focus of innovation policy. Innovations in Legacy sectors must penetrate a well-established and well-defended technological/economic/political/social paradigm that favours existing technology, characterised by (1) ‘perverse’ subsidies and price structures that create a mismatch between the incentives of producers and broader social goals, such as environmental sustainability, public health and safety, and geopolitical security; (2) established infrastructure and institutional architecture that imposes regulatory hurdles or other disadvantages to new entrants (3) market imperfections beyond those faced by other innovations: network economies, lumpiness, economies of scale, split incentives, needs for collective action, and transaction costs (4) politically powerful vested interests, reinforced by public support, that defend the paradigm and resist innovations that threaten their business models (5) public habits and expectations attuned to existing technology and (6) an established knowledge and human resources structure adapted to its needs. Beyond these obstacles, more socially desirable technologies that are driven by environmental or other non-market considerations must overcome the lack of agreed replacement standards against which putative alternatives can be judged. We have developed a new, integrative analytic framework for categorising the obstacles to market launch faced by Legacy sectors, and earlier applied this method to energy, health delivery, the long-distance electric grid, building, and air transport. In energy especially, the requirement for innovation is sufficiently urgent that large-scale domestic and collaborative international research should take place even at the cost of possible competitive disadvantage and even if it is some time before the USA adopts carbon charges and thereby puts pressure on the prevailing paradigm of fossil fuel use. We now extend this method to sustainable agriculture. American paradigms in agriculture and in energy are exported worldwide, delaying the development and spread of needed innovations that are not consistent with them. Foreign manufacturers wishing to enter US markets must suit their products in these sectors to American paradigms, while American exports of technology may be insufficiently cost conscious or respectful of environmental sustainability. Developing countries are technology takers and suffer from asymmetric innovative capability. They need to choose sources of technology best suited to their situation. India and China constitute new competitive threats, but also represent ‘innovative developing countries’ that have large domestic markets in which they are launching innovations aimed at their lower income populations.     

Finding partners for complex system innovations through a trans-sectoral ‘matchmaking platform’

Complex system innovations require the concurrent implementation of trans-sectoral co-innovations. The case of fuel cell vehicle development in Germany may serve as an expedient example for this necessity to develop multiple innovative components within largely disconnected ‘technology islands’. The diagonal cooperation among organisations from formerly non-cooperating industries (i.e. from within those technology islands) that so far have not shared a common knowledge base, however, is hindered by structural information deficits, making it difficult to identify the ‘right’ cooperation partners. Based on the requirements as identified in the case study, we therefore propose a ‘matchmaking platform’ that aims at fostering a trans-sectoral dialogue by providing systematically generated corporate capability profiles of organisations with promising cooperation potential. The matching is grounded on factors derived from resource- and market-based theory.     

Technological progress and sustainable development: what about the rebound effect?

Sustainability concepts that rest on the idea of resource- or energy-efficiency improvements due to technological progress tend to overestimate the potential saving effects because they frequently ignore the behavioral responses evoked by technological improvements. Efficiency improvements also affect the demand for resources and energy, and often an increase in efficiency by 1% will cause a reduction in resource use that is far below 1% or, sometimes, it can even cause an increase in resource use. This phenomenon is commonly labeled the rebound effect, which is well-known among energy economists, but never attracted much attention in ecological economics. The paper starts with the traditional neoclassical analysis of the rebound effect in a partial equilibrium framework that concentrates on the demand of one particular energy service such as mobility or room temperature. It also provides an overview of some of the main empirical studies based on this model that mostly confirm the existence of the rebound effect, but are controversial about its actual importance. However, we have to go beyond the neoclassical single-service model in order to take care of the variety of possible feedback affecting energy use. The paper presents two important expansions of the single-service model in order to show the potential relevance of the rebound effect to ecological economics. First, it is shown that in a multi-services model it proves to be difficult to make general statements about the relevance of the rebound effect. In this case, the overall effect of an increase in energy efficiency on total energy use depends on the on the assumptions about the substitutability between the services considered and the direction of the income effect. Second, the paper also tries to take care of the fact that changes in resource use or energy use are frequently just ‘side-effects’ of other forms of technological progress. Especially technological change of a time-saving nature can have a large influence on energy use as many time-saving devices (for example, faster modes of transport) require an increase in energy consumption that is frequently reinforced by a ‘rebound effect with respect to time’. This effect will be especially strong when wages are high and, at the same time, energy prices are low, as is currently the case in most industrialized countries. Consequently, the paper also provides a strong argument for the introduction of energy taxes.     

Party Politics and the Political Economy of Ghana’s Oil

Ghana’s status as a new oil producer raises questions about the developmental effects of resources, and the role of political institutions in these processes. The conundrum this paper addresses is the rather limited impact of oil exploitation in Ghana despite the country’s strong democratic record and internationally acclaimed oil governance legislation. The reasons for this lie in the nature of elite-based political coalitions and we root our analysis of Ghana’s hydrocarbons in the political settlements literature, which moves us beyond the ‘good governance’ approaches so often linked to ‘resource curse’ thinking. We also move beyond the instrumentalism of political settlements theory to examine the role political ideas play in shaping resource governance. We argue that inter-coalitional rivalry has generally undermined the benefits of Ghana’s oil but that a crude interests-based interpretation is insufficient to explain differences between these coalitions.     

Geopolitics,Eurasianism and Russian Foreign Policy Under Putin

This article interprets the strategies that have been associated with the war on terror against the backdrop of historical geographies of colonial violence and dispossession. It joins those who argue that wider anxieties about the sources of danger, criminality, violence and terror have become intertwined. These reveal as much about sensibilities of race, class and ‘security’ as they do objective dangers. Thus the article considers how, drawing on the British case, detentions and deportations marked by race are connected with and form part of an overlapping regime of ‘security’, ‘immigration’ and asylum. This is exemplified via an account of the trajectory British sovereign territory of Diego Garcia, leading to wider reflections on contemporary forms of sovereignty and the operation of ‘race’ in geopolitics.     

Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets

A cap on global warming implies a tighter carbon budget which can be enforced with a credible second-best renewable energy subsidy designed to lock up fossil fuel and curb cumulative emissions. Such a subsidy brings forward the end of the fossil fuel era but accelerates fossil fuel extraction and global warming in the short run. A weaker fossil fuel oligopoly implies that anticipation of a given global carbon budget induces fossil producers to deplete reserves more voraciously and accelerate global warming. This race to burn the last ton of carbon is more intensive for the feedback than open-loop Nash equilibrium, so that the Green Paradox effect of a renewable energy subsidy is stronger. There is an intermediate phase of limit pricing to keep renewable energy producers at bay, which becomes much more relevant when a cap on global warming is enforced. A stronger fossil fuel oligopoly lengthens the period of limit pricing and typically brings forward the carbon-free era. Finally, the mere risk of a cap on global warming being enforced at some unknown, future date makes fossil fuel extraction more voracious and accelerates global warming.     

The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis

We study a dynamic carbon pollution model where carbon accumulates both inside a nonrenewable and a renewable reservoir with a constant regeneration rate. Two primary energy sources are available: a cheap exhaustible fossil fuel (coal) and an expensive clean energy alternative (solar). To avoid catastrophic climate events, the global carbon concentration has to remain below some critical mandated ceiling. We show that there exists an upper bound on the coal endowment that can be consumed, which distinguishes two main cases: coal is initially abundant or scarce. If the energy sector has to provide a constant aggregate energy flow to the final users, cost-effectiveness requires that the global ceiling should be attained only when solar energy is introduced. Then the economy stays forever at the ceiling and coal use is progressively replaced by solar energy use. In the abundant coal case, this energy sources substitution process lasts for an infinite duration while in the scarce coal case, coal exploitation ends in finite time. Under a welfare maximization criterion, if coal is abundant, we show that the economy may follow a sequence of phases at the ceiling and below the ceiling before the final transition towards clean energy.     

The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis

We study a dynamic carbon pollution model where carbon accumulates both inside a nonrenewable and a renewable reservoir with a constant regeneration rate. Two primary energy sources are available: a cheap exhaustible fossil fuel (coal) and an expensive clean energy alternative (solar). To avoid catastrophic climate events, the global carbon concentration has to remain below some critical mandated ceiling. We show that there exists an upper bound on the coal endowment that can be consumed, which distinguishes two main cases: coal is initially abundant or scarce. If the energy sector has to provide a constant aggregate energy flow to the final users, cost-effectiveness requires that the global ceiling should be attained only when solar energy is introduced. Then the economy stays forever at the ceiling and coal use is progressively replaced by solar energy use. In the abundant coal case, this energy sources substitution process lasts for an infinite duration while in the scarce coal case, coal exploitation ends in finite time. Under a welfare maximization criterion, if coal is abundant, we show that the economy may follow a sequence of phases at the ceiling and below the ceiling before the final transition towards clean energy.