地方政府负债三大诱因

经费少,管事多;形象和政绩工程盲目上马;政府层级过多,行政机构繁杂——     

地方政府融资平台的现状分析与对策

通过分析地方政府融资平台的现状以及存在的问题,提出相应对策,推动经济社会的进步和人们的生活质量。     

急刹地方政府融资

中央政府的精神并不是阻止地方政府的基建投资,而是努力控制债务急增,防控风险。     

我国地方政府融资平台存在的问题及对策建议

四万亿经济刺激计划下,2009年地方债务负担更加严重,其潜在的风险及暴露的问题,如果任其发展,必然会威胁到我国银行信贷体系甚至金融体系的稳健运行。由于地方政府融资平台是我国目前地方债务借入的主要途径,因此本文主要分析地方政府融资平台上,地方债务存在的风险以及问题,并有针对性地提出化解风险,解决问题的建议。     

勿“妖魔化”地方政府发债

短期之内,中国的地方债务并不会演化成崩盘式的风险。 中国的地方政府债务问题,已成为中外关注的重大问题。中央政府正在对地方政府各类融资平台进行持续的调控,商业银行纷纷对地方融资收紧信贷,近一两年新发展起来的信托、理财等融资渠道,也受到不同程度的调控。而近期不少外资评级机构、投资机构和基金经理先后唱空中国,地方政府债务也是其一个重要理由。     

再认识我国地方政府投融资平台公司的巨额负债

所谓地方政府投融资平台是指,地方政府组建的不同类型的公司,包括城市建设投资公司、城建开发公司、城建资产经营公司等。政府通过划拨土地等,组建一个资产和现金流大致可以达到融资标准的公司,必要时辅之以财政补贴等作为还款保证,融入资金后重点投向市政建设、公用事业等项目。     

浅析地方政府融资平台的问题及整改措施

我国未来较长时期城市基础设施建设需求庞大,要求政府有雄厚的财力的支持,然而地方政府的财政收入有限,这种事权与财权的不对等直接催生了地方政府融资平台的出现,在这过程中也出现了一些问题,本文着重于探究这些问题的成因以及相应的整改措施。     

地方政府融资风险防范研究

近日,关于地方政府债务的报道,再次将＂地方债＂推到了社会舆论的风口浪尖。如此规模庞大的地方政府债务规模,蕴含的风险是不言而喻的,如果不及时采取积极措施化解这一风险,对整个国民经济社会体系的危害是难以估计的。本文通过分析地方债务的风险及其成因,从地方政府自身转变、地方政府融资平台市场化、对现有债务分类处理三个方面,提出了应对风险的处理措施,具有非常重要的现实意义。     

地方政府融资平台发展综述

地方政府融资平台是在我国投融资体制改革的过程中产生的,目前已成为地方政府运用市场手段建设公共基础设施的重要载体。地方政府融资平台的发展历程包含4个阶段,包括初创萌芽阶段、起步探索阶段、稳步发展阶段、扩张繁荣和规范发展阶段,各阶段展示出了不同的特点和发展规律。     

地方政府融资平台存在问题及管理办法探讨

地方政府融资平台公司的积极作用及存在问题，加强整体规划管理，充实资本金，急需加强融台平台管理。     

Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

詹向阳论地方政府债务与融资平台

最近,围绕地方政府融资平台极其债务风险发生了很多争议。中国工商银行金融研究总监詹向阳指出,对这一问题应该辩证地看待——地方政府融资平台对我国经济的发展功不可没;到目前为止,其债务风险可控;但由于运作不规范等造成的隐患正在加速暴露,必须予以重视并加以改进。     

广西政府外债管理体制调查研究

通过对广西政府外债管理体制存在的问题及原因进行深入剖析,提出完善广西政府外债管理体制运作的方式和方法,为更好地利用国外贷款支持广西经济健康、持续、快速和协调地发展提供制度保障     

Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.     

效率政府建设与我国地方政府绩效管理研究

建设效率政府是我国经济社会发展的必然要求,而目前我国地方政府效率普遍低下,构建合理的地方政府绩效管理体系是建设效率型政府的有效途径。     

地方政府利益、地方政府行为与经济增长

目前,对中国地方政府的经济行为的研究强调了在经济转型过程中地方政府在多样化的地方经济发展模式中的主导作用,注意到了地方政府目标的多重性,本地区社会福利最大化,政府利益最大化以及中央政府的满意程度等。对地方政府在公共产品的提供、就业、收入分配、实现社会公平等方面行为不到位方面的研究是从定性方法来论证。本文试图在定性分析基础上建立一些基本的数学模型为将来的计量研究提供一个模型框架。     

Factor mobility, government debt and the decline in public investment

This paper aims at explaining the declining level of public investment in OECD countries. The theoretical framework hints to the relevance of a number of demand and supply factors—ranging from the yield of public investment to institutions like the EU deficit limits. The econometric results indicate that the decline is due to three developments: first to the increase in the public capital stock; second to the pile-up of public debt which has restricted the ability to finance new investment; and third to the increasing mobility of factors adding to the financing difficulties. In contrast to that neither the privatisation process nor EU deficit restrictions of the Maastricht Treaty have a robustly significant impact.

Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model

This paper establishes a nonlinear theoretical model and uses panel smoothing transitional regression to study the optimal levels of government investment and public debt in a growth model using a panel dataset of 65 developed and developing economies over the period 1991–2014. The empirical results show that the effect of government investment on economic growth is decreasing as the level of expenditure rises. When the government investment/GDP ratio reaches a certain point (threshold), the effect of government investment could change from positive to negative. The effect of public debt on economic growth demonstrates a similar pattern. Our results suggest that there must exist an optimal level of government investment or public debt as far as economic growth is concerned, although the optimal level may vary in different economies. The government investment/GDP and public debt/GDP ratios of China were respectively 15.66% and 41.14% in 2014. These levels did not reach their respective thresholds and hence their effects on economic growth were still in the positive territory. Despite the expansion of government investment and public debt in China after the world financial crisis, their scales had not affected the country's economic growth during the data period.