Market reaction to the merger announcements of US banks: A non-parametric X-efficiency framework

This paper investigates the short-term market reaction of nine profit-efficiency, pre-classified merger deals of US banks over the time period from 1992 to 2003. The findings show that mergers combining low efficiency acquirers and targets create significant market returns following the merger event, while mergers combining the least efficient acquirers with moderately efficient targets diminish the acquirer's wealth more than any other type of merger. Furthermore, findings show that acquirers generally lose about 2.5% of their wealth upon the merger announcement while targets experience, on average, significant market returns of 15.5% following the merger announcement.The findings of the cross sectional analysis show that the CARs of acquirers are positively related to their technical efficiency and geographic diversification, while targets' CARs are negatively related to both target size and revenue efficiency.     

The X-efficiency of commercial banks in Hong Kong

Using the stochastic frontier approach to investigate the cost efficiency of commercial banks in Hong Kong, this paper found that the average X-efficiency of Hong Kong banks was about 16–30% of observed total costs. However, X-efficiency was found to decline over time, indicating that Hong Kong banks were operating closer to the cost frontier than before, consistent with technological innovations in the banking industry. Furthermore, the average large bank was found to be less efficient than the average small bank, but the size effect appears to be related to differences in portfolio characteristics among different size banks.     

Revisiting the merger and acquisition performance of European banks

The study examines the value creation of Merger and Acquisition (M&A) deals in European banking from 1990 to 2004. This is performed, first, by examining the stock price reaction of banks to the announcement of M&A deals and, second, by analysing the determinants of this reaction. The findings provide evidence of value creation in European banks as the shareholders of the targets have benefited from positive and (statistically) significant abnormal returns while those of the acquirers earn small negative but non-significant abnormal returns. In the case of the shareholders of the acquirers, domestic M&As and especially those between banks with shares listed on the stock market, seem to be more beneficial compared to cross-border ones or those when the target is unlisted. Shareholders of the targets earn in all cases positive abnormal returns. Finally, although the link between abnormal returns and fundamental characteristics of the banks is rather weak, it appears that the acquisition of smaller, less efficient banks generating more diversified income is more value creating, while acquisition of less efficient, liquid and characterised by higher credit risk banks is not a value creating option.     

Riding the merger wave: Uncertainty,reduced monitoring,and bad acquisitions

We show that acquisitions initiated during periods of high merger activity (“merger waves”) are accompanied by poorer quality of analysts' forecasts, greater uncertainty, and weaker CEO turnover-performance sensitivity. These conditions imply reduced monitoring and lower penalties for initiating inefficient mergers. Therefore, merger waves may foster agency-driven behavior, which, along with managerial herding, could lead to worse mergers. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the average long-term performance of acquisitions initiated during merger waves is significantly worse. We also find that corporate governance of in-wave acquirers is weaker, suggesting that agency problems may be present in merger wave acquisitions.     

我国商业银行X效率和规模效率变迁的实证研究:SFA方法的运用

商业银行的业绩主要取决于其经营效率和竞争力。随着金融体制改革的深化，我国银行经营效率的整体水平有了一定程度的提高。为清晰刻画出转轨时期我国银行X效率和规模效率变迁的轨迹，本文采用SFA随机前沿方法，构建超越对数成本函数模型，对银行X效率和规模效率进行检验，并根据检验结果对银行效率整体格局的变迁做出总结。本文认为，今后银行的业绩水平将更加依赖于经营效率和竞争力的提高，而“流程银行”的改革、治理结构的完善等一系列战略举措也正符合当前银行降低效率损耗，提升业绩的内在要求。     

Innovation, diffusion and catching up in the fifth long wave

Does the new technological paradigm based on information and communication technologies (ICTs) create new windows of opportunity or further obstacles for catching up countries? The paper discusses this question by taking neo-Schumpeterian long wave theory as the basic framework of analysis. According to this approach, the current rapid diffusion of the ICT-based paradigm marks the initial phase of a fifth long wave period. The first part of the paper focuses on the major changes that characterize the techno-economic system in the fifth long wave, and points out that the new paradigm is leading to several new opportunities for developing economies. If public policies will actively foster the development process by rapidly investing in the new technologies and in the related infrastructures and skills, these new opportunities will indeed be successfully exploited. The second part of the paper shifts the focus to the socio-institutional system, and argues that institutional changes driven by some major actors in the industrialized world are creating a new international regime where the scope and the resources available for State interventions are significantly reduced. The paper concludes by suggesting the existence of a temporary mismatch between the techno-economic and the socio-institutional system, which makes the catching up process more difficult for large parts of the developing world.     

我国会计师事务所合并浪潮的回顾与分析

2000年以来,我国注册会计师行业出现了全国性的会计师事务所合并浪潮,截至2001年3月31日,全国共有28个省市区的407家事务所合并成105家,全国参加合并的事务所几近总数的10%.     

银行惜贷现象的博弈分析

惜贷又称存差，是指相对于银行部门日趋庞大的负债规模而言，银行贷款的存量或增量规模并没有得到同步发展。其表现为：一方面，银行负债方的存款总额在不断增加(我国居民储蓄已经超过8万亿元)；另一方面，资产方的构成比例在不断变化，其趋势是贷款资产(尤其是企业贷款)的比重不断下降，而国有资产和外汇资产的比重却在不断上升。本拟从我国目前的投融资体制入手，在适当假设条件下，利用博弈论的分析方法，找出我国银行惜贷现象的成因，并提出相应的对策。     

Bank loan loss provision decisions: Empirical analysis of Taiwanese banks

By adopting the stochastic frontier model, this study follows Anandarajan, Hasan, and Lozano-Vivas (2005) and examines the efficiency frontier of the Loan Loss Provision (LLP) model in the Taiwanese banking industry during the period 1997–2004. The determinants of the inefficiency LLP are also analyzed. The main results are as follows. (i) The overall efficiency LLP index was 0.3282, indicating 67.18 per cent inefficiency of LLP decision making, similar to one major finding of the study by Anandarajan et al (2005), which suggests that inefficiency does exist for the LLP decision making. (ii) The LLP estimator is significantly and positively correlated with default loan loss. (iii) Large firms are generally subject to an especially close scrutiny by financial analysts and are thus highly motivated to maintain their credibility. In addition, they are more financially transparent relative to small firms and are more efficient in LLP decision making. (iv) Banks with higher non-interest expenses are inclined to manage LLP inefficiently.     

A quantitative analysis of qualitative arguments in a bank merger

This study analyzes a merger between two Scandinavian universal banks to determine the arguments for the merger at the time of the merger announcement. The merger was a response to changes in legislative and competitive environment, as well as a quest for broader functional competency and improved competitive position by integrating a smaller, more successful bank into a state-owned bank. Overall, the cognitive maps used in the analysis reveal that the most important causes of the merger were complementing branch networks and competencies, particularly in corporate banking. The most important predicted effects were improvements in the profitability and market position.     

上市中小股份制银行:盈利能力与模式的分析

根据年报所披露的数据,总体看2006年上市股份制银行均保持了较好的发展势头,各行盈利能力的提升和盈利模式均有拓展,但有时单独分析年报数据仍然不能说明全部问题。     

Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the European banking industry. Based on a broad set of European banks for the period 1996–2002, our study first shows that banks expanding into non-interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans. However, considering size effects and splitting non-interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities. A higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies, in some cases, lower asset and default risks.     

Time series analysis of financial stability of banks: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Islamic banks are characterized by their compliance to Islamic laws and practices, primarily the prohibition of interest and the trading of loans. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when a large number of conventional banks announced bankruptcy, no Islamic bank failures were reported. However, there is no clear consensus in the literature on the question of whether Islamic banks are more or less stable than conventional banks. To shed some light on this issue, we studied a sample of Saudi banks using quarterly data over a period centered on the 2008 financial crisis. Careful analysis of the data suggested first of all that many of the variables typically used in financial stability studies may be non-stationary, a methodological point largely ignored in the literature. Using time series methods suitable for this type of data, we concluded that individual heterogeneity may matter more than either the conventional or Islamic nature of the banks. Concentrating on the largest banks, we find the Islamic banks contribute positively to the stability of the system.     

The entry and the activity level of foreign banks in Italy: An analysis of the determinants

Although the theory of multinational banking has pointed out the importance of local profit opportunities, the empirical evidence is still poor and deserves further investigation. To this end, we analyse entry decisions and activity levels of foreign banks operating in Italy between 1983 and 1998. We consider 22 OECD countries, 10 of which had at least one bank (branch or subsidiary) in Italy. Entries and activity levels were related to the degree of economic integration as well as to the financial market features of the home country relative to Italy.Unlike other studies, besides economic integration, the relative profitability of the banking activity proves to be a significant variable in that it highlights the importance of local market conditions. In the past decade, increased competition in the Italian banking sector has reduced these profit opportunities, driving foreign banks towards more innovative sectors of financial intermediation.     

The price-setting behavior of banks: An analysis of open-end leverage certificates on the German market

This paper presents the first analysis of open-end leverage certificates on the German market. The major innovations of these certificates are twofold. First, issuers announce a price-setting formula according to which they are willing to buy and sell the certificates over time. Second, the product’s lifetime is potentially endless. Our main findings are that the price-setting formula is (i) designed to strongly favor the issuer and (ii) is consistent with the main outcome of the ‘life cycle hypothesis’ for structured financial products [Stoimenov, P.A., Wilkens, S., 2005. Are structured products ‘fairly’ priced? An analysis of the German market for equity-linked instruments. Journal of Banking and Finance 29, 2971–2993]. (iii) This holds for different product features and also in the presence of issuers’ credit risk and jump risk in the underlying.     

Banking efficiency and stock market performance: an analysis of listed Indonesian banks

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the monthly profit-based technical efficiency and productivity of listed Indonesian banks and their market performance. We examined the banks through the prism of two modelling techniques, efficiency and super-efficiency, over the period January 2003 to end-July 2007. Within this research strategy we employed Tone??s (2001) non-parametric, Slacks-Based Model (SBM) and Tone??s (2002) super-efficiency SBM to estimate the bank efficiencies. They were then combined with recent bootstrapping techniques, namely the non-parametric truncated regression analysis suggested by Simar and Wilson (2007), to identify the determinants of the efficiency scores. With respect to the latter, in the case of the SBM efficiency scores, the Simar and Wilson methodology was adapted to two truncations, whereas in the super-efficiency framework the original technique was utilised. The first part of the analysis reveals that listed banks?? average efficiencies varied widely over the sample period, from a low of 34% to a high of 97%, with only one bank having a score in excess of unity under the super-efficiency framework. The two most efficient banks were domestically owned. With respect to the truncated regression analysis, we found that the banks?? efficiency scores were positively correlated with share prices and return on equity in all models, and with the log of total assets in the super-efficiency analysis. Moreover, it was found that the JCI index of the Indonesian Stock Exchange is positively related to bank efficiency in all models. Another interesting finding is that the coefficient for the share of foreign ownership is negative and statistically significant in the super-efficiency modelling. This suggests that Indonesian banks with foreign ownership tend to be less efficient than their domestic counterparts. Finally, Malmquist productivity results suggest that, over the study??s horizon, the sample banks displayed volatile productivity patterns in their profit-generating operations.     

Fundamental analysis of banks: the use of financial statement information to screen winners from losers

This study investigates the efficacy of a fundamental analysis-based approach to screen U.S. bank stocks. We construct an index (BSCORE) based on fourteen bank–specific valuation signals. We document a positive association between BSCORE and future profitability changes, as well as current and one-year-ahead stock returns, implying that BSCORE captures forward looking information that the markets are yet to impound. A hedge strategy based on BSCORE yields positive hedge returns for all but two years during our 1994–2014 sample period. Results are robust to partitions of size, analyst following, and exchange listing, and persist after adjusting for risk factors. We further document a positive relation between BSCORE and future analyst forecast surprises as well as earnings announcement period returns, and a negative relation between BSCORE and future performance-based delistings. Overall, our results show that a fundamental analysis-based approach can provide useful insights for analyzing banks.     

商业银行数据仓库项目投资回报分析

目前,银行信息技术应用的重点正逐步从业务处理电子化向数据管理集中化、管理决策信息化发展。数据仓库技术因为能够为决策者提供有效的数据信息分析而备受金融信息化的青睐。在国际范围内,数据仓库技术已经成为商业银行开展科学化管理与决策的技术平台;国内商业银行也逐渐认识到数据仓库项目的意义,不约而同地开始实施或着手规划数据仓库项目的建设工作。然而,数据仓库毕竟是涉及银行业务管理、IT系统等多方面的综合工程,其开发具有相当的难度。数据仓库的应用调查显示:数据仓库应用所特有的高投入、高风险、长周期是投资者必须审慎对待的…     

银行经营分析数据仓库模型的设计

近年来．由于我行各项业务的迅速拓展，规模的扩大和客户的持续增加，加大了管理的难度。一方面，无法用量化的指标考核行员业绩，考核标准不统一，很大程度上挫伤了员工的积极性；另一方面，由于系统众多，数据分散，决策及管理部门无法及时准确地获取业务信息。因此，为了对行员（尤其是客户经理）绩效进行有效的监控和评价，强化内部竞争机制，更好地提高员工的积极性，我行决定建设一套科学化的业绩考核系统，同时建立一个集成的，逐步完善的决策分析平台，为以后其他分析管理提供基础，提升银行的科学经营管理水平。     

Financial deregulation and efficiency: An empirical analysis of Indian banks during the post reform period

The paper investigates the performance of Indian commercial banking sector during the post reform period 1992-2002. Several efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated using nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Three different approaches viz., intermediation approach, value-added approach and operating approach have been employed to differentiate how efficiency scores vary with changes in inputs and outputs. The analysis links the variation in calculated efficiencies to a set of variables, i.e., bank size, ownership, capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loans and management quality. The findings suggest that medium-sized public sector banks performed reasonably well and are more likely to operate at higher levels of technical efficiency. A close relationship is observed between efficiency and soundness as determined by bank's capital adequacy ratio. The empirical results also show that technically more efficient banks are those that have, on an average, less non-performing loans. A multivariate analysis based on the Tobit model reinforces these findings.