An institutional theory of hydraulic fracturing policy

The use of high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has increased substantially over the past five years in the United States. Use of this drilling technology to extract natural gas from hitherto impermeable shale is expected to increase even more in coming decades. Two institutions, integration contracts and well spacing requirements, evolved to mitigate the common-pool economic wastes associated with conventional oil and gas drilling. U.S. regulators have applied these institutions to fracking. However, shale plays differ geologically from conventional plays and are subject to different extractive technologies. We theorize that the point-source pollution characteristics of conventional drilling allowed integration contracts and well space requirements to minimize local negative environmental externalities as an unintended byproduct of minimizing common-pool economic wastes. The non-point source pollution characteristics of fracking, however, make these institutions insufficient to minimize negative environmental externalities associated with drilling in shale plays, because the economic waste problem is different. If policymakers understand the crucial differences between conventional oil and gas plays and shale plays and the drilling technologies applied to them, they should be better equipped to craft fracking regulatory policies that internalize problematic externalities.     

美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局,使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化,且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因,提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应,而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应,并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。     

美国页岩油勘探开发前景展望及其影响分析

对国内外页岩油的概念进行了系统分析,梳理了美国页岩油勘探开发历程,将其划分为发现阶段、认识突破阶段和快速发展阶段三个阶段。之后从剩余资源量、证实储量以及产量三个层次分析了美国页岩油产业发展的资源基础,认为美国页岩油产业具有良好的发展潜力。对美国页岩油产业的发展环境进行了分析,认为美国政府的扶持以及页岩油气潜力对国内外大量资金的吸引是美国页岩油产业在新时期发展的根本保障。最后,对美国页岩油产业的发展路径以及全球影响进行了分析和展望。     

美国大规模页岩气开发的若干问题

美国大规模页岩气开发取得了显著成效,能源安全得到有力保障,为经济复苏提供了坚实保障,增加了就业及政府收入,并有助于减少温室气体的排放。美国大规模开发页岩气,除源于能源供应紧张外,还有政府鼓励开发非常规能源以及页岩气开发技术日臻完善。水力压裂技术是页岩气开发的关键技术,但存在水资源被过度使用、地下水及环境被污染及人工诱发地震等潜在风险。美国页岩气持续稳定发展也面临气田产量衰减和公司盈利能力等问题。目前,为缓解天然气紧缺,欧洲也在考虑开发页岩气,但美国页岩油气爆发式发展的成功有许多是美国自身的因素,其他国家要照搬并不可取。     

Do shale gas and oil productions move in convergence? An investigation using unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper investigates the long-run trends of shale gas and shale oil productions by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM), GARCH-based, and PANICCA unit root tests to discover the mean-reverting behaviors. We employ monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016 of shale gas withdrawals and shale oil productions in the U.S. The empirical results both on specific state/oil well and panel data show that most structural breaks emerge around 2007–2011, during which shale energy was massively produced in the U.S. and the global financial crisis and energy shock occurred. Our results also indicate that most external shocks are transitory and the trends soon converge, and that cross-state/well factors have greater potential as temporary shocks than the state-specific/well-particular components. For robust analysis, we conduct additional LM tests of natural gas and crude oil productions for a comparison with the unconventional shale energy. The unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2010) on shale gas and shale oil productions help us to find more stationary evidence. Overall, we present powerful findings of the mean-reversion property and propose critical implications for authorities and market participants.     

欧洲页岩气开发现状及面临的挑战

美国页岩气革命取得巨大成功,由此可能带来的全球能源、经济和政治格局变化,引发了全世界的关注。欧洲希望复制美国成功模式。对欧洲页岩气开发现状及面临的挑战进行了研究和分析：目前,欧洲页岩气开发工作进展缓慢,在技术、成本和环境等方面面临重大挑战;但在开发方面也有诸多积极因素,如,油气资源衰竭、减排和环境保护等。我国页岩气资源潜力远高于欧洲,加快页岩气开发,对于改变我国油气资源格局,保障国家能源安全,促进经济发展,意义重大。     

Rural light pollution from shale gas development and associated sleep and subjective well-being

The shale oil and gas boom has had large economic, environmental, and social impacts on rural communities in the United States. This study provides novel estimates of the impacts of shale oil and gas development on light pollution in rural areas of the United States. Using nationwide, time-calibrated DMSP-OLS database from 2000 to 2012, we find robust evidence that the shale oil and gas boom significantly increased light pollution in rural areas. We then assess associations between horizontal drilling and subjective self-rated health using nationwide data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2000 to 2012. Our findings suggest that insufficient sleep and poor health (physical or mental) are associated with increased drilling in rural areas. These results provide support for drilling-related light pollution as an additional environmental pathway of concern for public health beyond the mechanisms of air or water pollution.     

Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy

Policy makers worldwide are recently debating options to implement an effective climate policy that would put a cap on green house gas emissions. At the same time, investors are carefully evaluating the profitability of unconventional fossil fuels such as shale oil. To enhance the understanding of the impacts of a climate policy such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, on oil shale production – and vice versa – we have customized an integrated assessment model, the Climate and Energy Assessment for Resiliency model for Unconventional Fossil Fuels to the U.S. Western Energy Corridor. Our analysis indicates that while the bill would increase the production cost of oil shale, the industry remains highly profitable in the longer-term, generating a potential profit of about $10 to $16 billion per year by 2040 at 2.5 million barrels per day. These results suggest that the oil shale industry may comfortably face the enactment of a carbon policy, albeit with some caveats. Furthermore, while its potential economic impact on non-compliant industries may be severe, it would generate mounting profits for those achieving energy efficiency gains, thereby increasing the profitability of energy efficiency investments.     

Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To that end, we analyze the rate of change in convenience yields for five futures prices time horizons (1, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month ahead), allowing for the both jumps and time-varying volatility. We find that both features exert a statistically important effect on convenience yields, for each of the five time horizons. We also calculate the implied probability that at least one jump would occur on any date, which reveals a period of relative calm at the start of the fracking boom, when large stockpiles built up at the trading hub for West Texas Intermediate, and a period of considerable churn, after the ban on exporting crude oil was lifted. Both elements underscore a linkage between inventory holdings and convenience yields.     

非洲石油与美国国家安全——基于非洲司令部的视角

在美国国内石油产量下降和世界主要产油区中东政治局势恶化的大背景下，美国认为非洲石油是实现其石油来源多元化战略的选择之一，为此美国设置了单独处理非洲事务的非洲司令部，从而揭示了非洲石油与美国国家安全之间的紧密联系。     

Effects of the structural change on transaction costs between North America natural gas spot markets

Threshold cointegration between market pairs before and after the potential structural break associated with the shale gas revolution is examined. Pairwise transaction costs differ between the pre- and post-break periods. During the post-break period, five of seven pairwise transaction costs decrease, while the remaining two pair-wise transaction costs increase relative to the pre-break period. Alterations in natural gas flows as the result of the shale gas revolution partially explain the changes in transaction costs.     

Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed.     

山东省原油自给能力预测与分析

基于1972—2009年山东省原油产量数据和1985—2009年山东省原油消费量数据,通过建立ARIMA(0,2,3)模型和ARIMA(2,1,2)模型,对2010—2015年山东省的原油产量和原油消费量进行了预测,旨在预测和分析2010—2015年山东省原油自给能力的变化趋势。结果表明:2010—2015年各年山东省的原油对外依存度将分别为46.85%、50.52%、54.97%、57.34%、58.75%和61.59%;山东省的原油自给能力将进一步降低。分析认为:山东省原油自给能力降低的主要原因是原油持续性生产受限和原油消费量持续性增长,因此需要通过利用国外市场协调、加大石油勘探力度、发展先进的勘探开发技术、提高石油资源加工转化效率以及加快替代能源开发利用等缓解此趋势。     

Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

新一轮工业革命正在叩门,中国怎么办?

新一轮工业革命已经悄悄降临,这一次新工业革命不仅仅是由于新技术发展导致一些新兴产业发展,而是由于新的技术革命导致制造业生产方式与制造模式发生巨大的变化。面对这样的变化,美国等发达国家掀起的所谓"再工业化"实质是要抓住新一轮制造业的大变革,占据新一轮全球产业分工体系中的优势地位,恢复美国经济的国际竞争力。我国目前制造业产值虽然超过了美国,但就我国制造业总体水平来说,一是技术含量还不够高;二是处在制造业价值链的中低端环节;更重要的是我国的制造业生产方式与制造模式还停留在工业化初、中期的状态,与新一轮工业革命相去甚远。能不能抓住新的工业革命这一历史机遇,甚至在这个过程中实现赶超,是我国制造业转型升级并快速提高、迎头赶上的关键,如果抓不住很可能就要继续落后。在这样的情况下,我们应该认真研究应对的思路与策略,应该试着找出一条制造业提升、变革、发展的新型工业化道路,在新型产业体系构建、战略性先进制造业选择发展、先进制造业与现代服务业匹配模式设计、知识产权保护、高端人才造就、服务创新推动、市场环境打造等方面大胆探索,深化改革,积极响应与投入即将到来的"第三次工业革命"。     

What drives the global official/policy interest rate?

We construct a GFAVAR model with newly released global data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to investigate the drivers of global official/policy interest rate. We find that 66% of movement in global official/policy interest rates is attributed to changes in global monetary aggregates (23%), oil prices (19%), global output (16%) and global prices (8%). Global official/policy interest rates respond significantly to increases in global output, inflation and oil prices. Increases in global policy interest rates are associated with reductions in global prices and global output. The response in official/policy interest rate for the emerging countries is more to global inflation, for the advanced countries (excluding the U.S.) is more to global output, and for the U.S. is to both global output and inflation.     

U.S. OIL DEMAND AND CONSERVATION

Recent history has lent casual support to three popular theories about U.S. oil demand: (i) U.S. oil consumption is very insensitive to changing oil prices, (ii) non-price conservation has reduced U.S. oil demand, and (Hi) U.S. oil consumption falls more when oil prices rise than it rises when oil prices fall. Together, these theories suggest that one could hold oil consumption constant without much economic sacrifice. The authors' econometric evidence does not support these theories. This evidence indicates that U.S. oil consumption is fairly responsive to price changes over the long run, but with a considerable lag. Sharp oil price increases—or an equivalent policy action—would be needed to hold oil consumption constant during the 1990s.     

U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices

This paper empirically investigates and provides further support for the oil price effect documented in Driesprong et al. (2008) in the U.S. industry-level returns. We find that oil price predictability is concentrated in a relatively small number of industry-level returns, the relevant measure for a study of the oil effect is percentage change in oil spot prices, and changes in oil futures prices have virtually no prediction power for industry-level returns. With percentage changes in oil spot prices as the predictor, approximately one fifth of industry returns are oil-predictable. We detect a two trading weeks delay in reaction to oil price changes which is consistent with the Hong and Stein (1996) underreaction hypothesis. These results are robust to various alternative specifications, and are shown to be unrelated to time-varying risk premia. Moreover, we demonstrate that trading strategies based on the oil effect generate superior gains in comparison with buy-and-hold strategy in the presence of reasonable trading costs.     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.