基于灰色遗传BP神经网络的铁路货运量预测

铁路货运量受限于社会建设、投资和政策调控等多方面的影响.为了给货运系统提供更好的调配支撑,基于铁路货运量影响因素,加强BP预测性能,提出灰色遗传BP神经网络的铁路货运量预测模型(GR_GA_BP),对铁路货运量进行灰色关联分析,找出与铁路货运量关联程度较高的指标作为GR_GA_BP预测模型的输入对货运量进行预测.通过MAPE、RMSE和MAE对比GR_GA_BP模型与其他模型,实验结果表明,GR_GA_BP模型优于其他模型,可以作为新方法预测和研究铁路货运能力.     

综合交通运输体系构建与困境摆脱:铁路行业例证

十一五时期以来,我国增加了对铁路建设的投资,加快铁路发展建设。铁路客运由于地域差异,货运量规模也体现出区域差异,铁路客运在时间上表现出季节性供给不足。解决客运难、货运难的问题,除加速铁路里程建设,还要重点加强跨区域的铁路建设并合理组织铁路的运营、构建和谐的综合交通运输体系。     

铁路货运量预测过程中的关键技术分析

可靠的铁路货运量预测对铁路部门计划、建设、运营等决策具有重要意义。主要影响因素筛选、预测方法选取等是预测过程中的关键技术问题,对预测质量有重要影响。基于已有研究成果,首先分析了预测机理,探讨了影响因素的界定方法;接着提出了主要影响因素的识别原则和策略;然后归纳出各主要预测方法的优缺点;最后给出相关建议,以期更加科学合理地预测铁路货运量。     

基于GM（1,1）模型群的重庆货运量预测研究

货运量是货运市场体系中的重要统计指标,预测货运量发展趋势是制定货运发展战略的前提和基础。文章根据重庆市货运发展状况,收集了重庆2001-2011年货运量的数据,采用GM(1,1)模型群对重庆市货运量进行模拟、预测。经过模型精度检验,最后选择等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型对未来四年内的重庆货运量进行预测。     

论中国铁路的技术发展规律及技术创新轨迹

从技术经济学的角度论述铁路这种运输方式的发展历程,根据该运输方式的过去和现状,推测铁路将来的发展趋势,即客运高速化、货运重载化、牵引动力现代化、货物运输集装化和集中化、运营管理信息网络化,并总结铁路运输在发展历程中的技术发展规律和技术创新轨迹。     

到2010年欧洲与亚太国家间通过西伯利亚大铁路运送的货流将增加30％

俄罗斯交通部的官员透露，到2010年欧洲与亚太国家问通过西伯利亚大铁路完成的集装箱货运量将增加30％，达到90万—105万t。2003年欧洲与亚太国家间通过西伯利亚大铁路的集装箱货运量为67．6万t，是集装箱货运业务开展以来情况最好的一年。     

铁路货运现代物流运营模式研究

随着我国铁路货运供给侧改革的不断推进,尤其是党的十九大报告提出要大力发展现代物流产业,因此作为支撑运输业的铁路运输部门必须要积极构建以现代物流体系的运营管理模式,实现集约化、系统化、智能化以及现代化的服务。本文结合多年的工作实践就铁路货运现代物流运营模式进行深入剖析,以此推动铁路货运企业的可持续发展。     

俄中铁路客货运输量增长迅速

从2000年开始,俄罗斯与中国间的货运量已超过2900万吨。俄罗斯交通部副部长哈·扎比洛夫说,铁路运输在俄中货运总量中所占的比例已经达到95％。自2000年以来,铁路部门参与完成的俄中货运总量已经增长了55％。2002年铁路直接运送的货物已接近1800万吨,比2000年增长了70％。与此同时,海上货运量增长了34％。     

满洲里口岸进出口货运量突破2800万吨

据内蒙古自治区满洲里市口岸委最新统计数据显示,2012年,满洲里口岸进出口货运量突破2800万吨,同比增长5.9%;口岸进出境人员累计168.8万人次,同比增长20.1%。2011年,满洲里铁路口岸进口原油被取消,形成约900万吨的口岸货运缺口,口岸货运形势十分严峻。面对困难和挑战,满洲里口岸联检联运部门千方百计采取措施,通过新增煤炭进口品类、增加大宗货物进口运量,实现了口岸货运量逐步增长。2012年,木材进口890.1万立方米(712.1万吨),同比下降12.4%。受宏观经济形势和国家对房地产业严格调控的影响,国内木材市场需求不振,而且自8月23日开始,俄罗斯对中国出口原     

吉林铁路货运站转型物流中心的设想

吉林市铁路物流的业务量主要以吉林车务段为依托,通过对铁路货运站运营情况的分析,勾划出建设吉林铁路物流中心的宏伟蓝图。目前吉林车务段货运站运营虽面临的一些困难,存在一些问题,但针对问题进行分析,对吉林车务段货运发展物流进行规划,同时对吉林市物流中心选址方案进行比选,对建立吉林区域物流中心提供理论依据。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.