Poverty and Inequality Maps in Rural Vietnam: An Application of Small Area Estimation

The objective of the present paper is to estimate poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam at different levels of aggregation by combining the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey from 2006 and the Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census from the same year. Using the small area estimation method, estimates at the regional, provincial and district level are produced, and both expenditure and income based measures are considered. It is found that all provinces across the country have experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999–2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces are experiencing reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with a larger poverty reduction in the period 1999–2006 tended to have a lower level of inequality in 2006. Results based on expenditure poverty estimates are found to be very similar to those based on income poverty estimates.     

Updating Poverty Maps with Panel Data

This paper extends the methodology of Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. O., & Lanjouw, P. (2003). Micro level estimation of poverty and inequality. Econometrica 71(1), 355–364 and presents a low cost approach to arriving at small area welfare estimates for non-census years. The approach requires panel data and the estimation of a relation between per capita consumption from the year of interest and household characteristics from the census year. The method is illustrated for Uganda. It is shown that with the exception of the North progress in rural poverty reduction was broadly shared during 1992–99. Areas with high initial levels of poverty appear to have benefited less from growth.     

Dynamics of Growth,Poverty and Inequality: A Panel Analysis of Regional Data from Thailand and the Philippines*

Using panel data for provinces compiled from household expenditure microdata, the present paper empirically investigates the relationships among growth, poverty and inequality in Thailand and the Philippines. The empirical model avoids the potential bias due to the fact that the entire distribution of individual‐level consumption changes over time and empirical variables for growth, poverty and inequality are often compiled from the consumption distribution. The system generalized method of moments estimation results strongly suggest that inequality reduced the growth rate of per‐capita consumption, and that differences in inequality explain a substantial portion of the Philippine–Thai difference in growth and poverty reduction since the late 1980s.     

Vulnerability of Vietnamese Elderly to Poverty: Determinants and Policy Implications*

We identify determinants of elderly poverty in Vietnam using household survey data from 2004. The elderly living in urban and rural areas face significantly different conditions. Some factors impact poverty in both urban and rural areas (e.g. age, marital status, region and remittance receipts), some factors are insignificant in both areas (e.g. living arrangements and household head characteristics) and some factors have a differing impact in the two areas (e.g. gender, ethnicity, and household composition and size). With these findings, we formulate policy priorities, including reducing regional disparities, promoting the rural economy and reforming social security.     

CAN VIETNAM ACHIEVE THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN HIGH INFLATION AND ECONOMIC STAGNATION?

An important aspect of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which Vietnam is committed is to reduce overall and food poverty. Although Vietnam has achieved remarkable reductions in poverty during recent years, Vietnam may not achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction because of high inflation and economic stagnation. This paper uses three recent Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSSs), in 2002, 2004, and 2006, to forecast poverty in 2008 and 2010 to examine whether Vietnam can achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction. The forecast takes into account high inflation in 2008 and economic stagnation during 2008–09. It is found that Vietnam may be able to achieve its MDGs on reduction of overall poverty; however, the MDGs on food poverty reduction may not be achieved.     

Trade Liberalization,Economic Restructuring and Urban Poverty: The Case of China*

Increased trade openness and rapid market-oriented transformation have largely altered the patterns of wealth accumulation and wealth distribution in post-reform China. In the present paper, with the help of Chinese provincial level data over the period of 1986 to 2000, simultaneous equations estimation and generalized method of moment techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between trade and poverty in urban China. Empirical results suggest that China's trade liberalization helps to reduce urban poverty both directly and indirectly through its favorable impacts on economic growth.     

Alternative Poverty Lines for Malaysia

Because of the shortcomings of the Malaysian official poverty line, this paper offers several alternative regional poverty line estimations with varying underlying assumptions. Using the Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, poverty lines are estimated based on the consumption patterns of 10th and 20th percentile household per capita expenditure. The regional poverty lines from these reference groups produced robust poverty measurement rankings across regions in the country. We suggest that the poverty lines from both reference groups be used as lower and upper poverty lines for the country.     

Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam War Draft

This article contributes to the literature examining how stress during the early stages of life impacts later-life health using a novel proxy for stress: risk of military induction during the Vietnam War. The article estimates that an increase in induction risk in young adulthood is associated with higher rates of obesity, endocrine disease, and hypertension later in life. These findings do not appear to be cohort effects; these associations exist only for men who did not serve in the war, not for same-aged women. These results suggest stress experienced during early adulthood can have adverse health consequences later in life.     

Robust Estimates of Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Post‐Independence Namibia

We estimate changes in the distribution of household consumption expenditure in Namibia since independence in 1990 and the effects on poverty. To produce comparability between two household surveys, we use survey‐matching techniques, and we apply the framework of stochastic dominance to test the robustness of our results. The results reveal a significant decrease in the poverty headcount over the period and small but insignificant decreases in the country's extremely high levels of inequality. Decomposition analysis shows that poverty reduction in Namibia is largely driven by growth in mean incomes rather than redistribution. Even so, there have been important changes in inequality among different social groups especially as educational attainment has replaced ethnicity as the main determinant of between‐group inequality.     

Dietary Diversity,Food Security and Undernourishment: The Vietnamese Evidence*

As is widely known, Vietnam experienced a rise in living standards and a decline in expenditure poverty during the first half of the 1990s. This paper extends this knowledge by providing evidence on the Vietnamese experience of food security, undernourishment and poverty from the late 1990s to the early part of the new millennium. The results suggest that poor households did not experience increases in food consumption, calorie intake and dietary diversity of the same magnitude as non‐poor households. Nevertheless, Vietnam experienced impressive reductions in both calorie deprivation and expenditure poverty at the turn of the century. Non‐poor households, in particular, experienced spectacular increases in calorie intake and dietary diversity during the period 1997/1998–2004. This paper also reports regression results which point to the role of urbanization and improvement in education levels in promoting dietary diversity and nutrient intake. The present study finds evidence of sharp regional differences in calorie intake and calorie costs, which suggests that the authorities should set provincial poverty lines, contrary to the current practice adopted by Vietnam's General Statistical Office.     

Determinants of Remittances: Recent Evidence Using Data on Internal Migrants in Vietnam*

The present paper examines the determinants of remittance behavior for Vietnam using data from the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey on internal migrants. It considers how, among other things, the vulnerability of a migrant's life at the destination, their link to relatives back home, and the time spent at the destination affect remittances. The paper finds that migrants act as risk‐averse economic agents and send remittances back to the household of origin as part of an insurance exercise in the face of economic uncertainty. Remittances are also found to be driven by a migrant's labor market earnings level. The paper highlights the important role of remittances in providing an effective means of risk‐coping and mutual support within the family.     

The Impact of Self‐Perceived Relative Income on Life Satisfaction: Evidence from British Panel Data

This is the first article that uses panel data to investigate the impact of individuals' self‐perceived relative income on life satisfaction. Analyses show that the self‐perceived relative income has a significant impact on life satisfaction, but the impact is asymmetric. The decline in life satisfaction is much more significant due to perceiving a lower relative income in comparison to the rise in life satisfaction because of perceiving a higher relative income. Absolute income is only significantly and positively associated with life satisfaction in the pooled ordinary least squares estimations, but the association is never significantly different from zero when individual fixed effects are controlled. Household savings have a positive but small impact on life satisfaction. Among different financial‐related shocks, people's self‐perceived relative income varies the most due to changes in household net income, total savings, and employment status.     

Poverty Effects of the Philippines’ Tariff Reduction Program: Insights from a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

A computable general equilibrium micro‐simulation model is used to assess the economic and poverty impacts of tariff reduction in the Philippines. Tariff reduction induces consumers to substitute cheaper imported agricultural products for domestic goods, thereby resulting in a contraction in agricultural output. In contrast, tariff reduction reduces the domestic cost of production, benefiting the outward‐oriented and import‐dependent industrial sector. The national poverty headcount decreases marginally as lower consumer prices outweigh the nominal income reduction experienced by the majority of households. However, both the poverty gap and severity of poverty worsens, implying that the poorest of the poor become even poorer.     

Firm agglomeration and local poverty reduction: evidence from an economy in transition

We examine the linkages between firm agglomeration and the welfare of households in Vietnam. We measured firm agglomeration by per capita firm output at the district level and household welfare by per capita income, expenditure, and poverty. We find that firm agglomeration helps households move from the informal sector to the formal sector. As a result, there is a positive effect of firm agglomeration on per capita income, per capita expenditure, and poverty reduction, albeit of a small and time‐decreasing magnitude. The effect of firm agglomeration on per capita expenditure tends to be higher for households with men, younger, and more educated heads than households with women, older, and less educated heads. Households in rural areas and those that do not have crop land are more likely to benefit from firm agglomeration than those living in urban areas and having crop land.     

Socioeconomic Changes and the Decline in Poverty: A View from Three Villages in the Philippines, 1985–1997*

The present paper examines socioeconomic changes and decline in rural poverty using a panel dataset collected in the Philippine villages in 1985, 1993 and 1997. The most important finding is the transition of the rural economy away from a regime of low nonfarm income to a regime of high nonfarm income accompanied by a marked decline in poverty. The relative contribution of access to land on rural poverty reduction declined, whereas the relative contribution of human capital, more importantly represented by college schooling, increased over time.     

Deterioration of Firm Balance Sheet and Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel Data on Thai Firms*

Using firm‐level data, the present paper investigates whether, and to what extent, firm balance sheet problems mattered for investment over the period 1992–2002. Various categories of firms are compared, with firms grouped according to their a priori degree of liquidity constraint. Firms are also divided into pre‐crisis and post‐crisis periods to examine the impact of the financial crisis on firms’ investments. The results support the existence of the balance sheet channel and suggest that Thai firms faced greater liquidity constraints following the financial crisis. Small firms and non‐bond‐issuing firms are found to have been more adversely affected by the crisis than large firms and bond‐issuing firms.     

Trade Flows,Exchange Rate Uncertainty,and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.     

Multidimensional Poverty and Perceived Happiness: Evidence from China,Japan and Korea*

We compare multidimensional poverty and its associations with perceived happiness in China, Japan and Korea. Using largely comparable nationwide survey data, we focus on multidimensional poverty in terms of income, schooling, health and social protection. We find multidimensional poverty to be more prevalent in China than in Japan or Korea; sex and age‐based differences are largest in Korea. We further confirm significant associations between multidimensional poverty and perceived happiness. For all three countries, the aggregated poverty dimensions could largely identify unhappy individuals, with both wider coverage and higher odds than is possible through unidimensional analyses.     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.