Assessing the Temporary VAT Cut Policy in the UK*

This paper concerns the likely impact of a temporary VAT cut stimulus policy on consumer demand in the UK. It suggests that around 75 per cent of the VAT reduction will be passed on to consumers and that consumers will react by maintaining their expenditure levels and therefore increasing their demand for consumption goods. The uncertainty caused by the downturn makes this a more muted impact than we might have hoped, especially on the demand for durable goods. Nevertheless, it is a substantive impact. In general, the uncertainty caused by the recession will tend to reduce the impact of any stimulus package. It is also argued that synchronising the subsequent rise with the economic upturn is critical.     

The Economics of a Temporary VAT Cut*

This paper analyses the likely implications of the temporary cut in VAT in the UK to 15 per cent, with a return to 17.5 per cent in place for the end of 2009. We distinguish between the income effect of the cut and the (intertemporal) substitution effect. The former is likely to be small because the change in lifetime income is minimal. The second effect is likely to be much more important because the reduction in the price of goods bought in 2009 compared with 2010 gives an incentive to increase consumer spending this year. With an elasticity of intertemporal substitution of about 1, we would expect the cut in VAT to boost consumer spending by about 1.2 per cent over what it would otherwise be. The distributional consequences of the VAT cut are regressive because goods subject to VAT tend to be luxuries. Unlike a cut in interest rates, there is no difference in the distributional consequences for borrowers compared with savers.     

Testing for a Debt‐Threshold Effect on Output Growth

Using the Reinhart–Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the 5 per cent significance level for most cases. While we find no evidence of a threshold around 90 per cent, our findings from the post‐war sample suggest that the debt threshold for economic growth may exist around a relatively small debt‐to‐GDP ratio of 30 per cent. Furthermore, countries with debt‐to‐GDP ratios above 30 per cent have GDP growth that is 1 percentage point lower at the median.     

Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy, and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico

In 1995 Mexico experienced its largest contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) since the early twentieth century. I propose a simple mechanism to partially account for the contraction: the effects of changes in fiscal policy. The contraction of GDP was preceded by a financial crisis. The government responded by raising taxes and reducing spending. Using a model with taxation and government consumption, and the business cycle accounting methodology, I measure the impact of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy accounts for 20.7% of the fall in output.     

Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy

We investigate how the level of household indebtedness affects the monetary transmission mechanism in the U.S. economy. Using state‐dependent local projection methods, we find that the effects of monetary policy are less powerful during periods of high household debt. In particular, the impact of monetary policy shocks is smaller on GDP, consumption, residential investment, house prices, and household debt during a high‐debt state. We then build a partial equilibrium model of borrower households with financial constraints to rationalize these facts. The model points to the weakening of the home equity loan channel as a possible reason for the decline in monetary policy effectiveness when initial debt levels are high.     

“营改增”能否促进企业价值提升

"营改增"通过打通增值税抵扣链条、消除重复征税等,对企业税负降低和专业化分工会产生一定的促进作用,进而能够显著提升企业价值。而交通运输业由于"营改增"前后适用税率差异较大,且固定资产更新周期较长带来的进项抵扣不足,使得"营改增"对其企业价值的影响程度反而不及现代服务业。与私营企业相比,国有企业更容易受到政府政策干预或扶持,对税收政策的敏感性不及私营企业,即"营改增"对私营企业的企业价值的影响程度显著高于国有企业。鉴于"营改增"对企业价值的促进作用,国家应继续优化增值税体系,保持税收政策在促进企业价值提升时政策红利的延续性;在推行增值税改革的过程中,要增加配套税收优惠政策,以弥补政策效应对某些行业激励不足的短板;此外,要加快国有企业改革,营造公平的营商环境,促进税收中性原则的有效发挥。     

Some Equity and Efficiency Considerations of International Tax Competition

The paper uses a dynamic 2-country equilibrium model with imperfections in the labour market calibrated for the US and EU economy to investigate dynamic efficiency and equity aspects of international tax competition. We focus on tax policy where governments can only decide on the levels of corporate and labour taxes, given a constant share of government consumption and transfers in GDP and a constant VAT rate. We find that the welfare effect of a tax shift from capital to labour depends heavily on the distortionary nature of labour taxes. In contrast to existing results we find substantial positive international spillover effects of corporate tax reduction in one country, with long term gains outweighing short term losses. Results are very different, however, if one goes beyond the representative agent framework. According to our results, a tax switch is most likely not Pareto improving since net wages tend to decline in both regions even in the long run.     

Value-added taxation and consumption

One of the main rationales for taxing consumption rather than income is that it is believed that consumption taxes discourage consumption, encourage savings, and thus generate higher economic growth. However, empirical evidence on the actual effectiveness of consumption taxes in stimulating savings is very limited. In this paper, we estimate the impact of a broad-based consumption tax, the value-added tax (VAT), on the aggregate consumption of fifteen European Union countries over the period 1961–2005. Our empirical results indicate, across a variety of estimation methods and specifications, that a one percentage point increase in the VAT rate leads to roughly a one percent reduction in the level of aggregate consumption in the short run and to a somewhat larger reduction in the long run.     

The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*

The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India

Using bank-level data from India, we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy, and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes. Our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank, and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. We also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short-term and more risky medium-term lending. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

An assessment of the potential VAT revenue collection for the United Arab Emirates

This study analyses the effect of a 5% VAT in the UAE for the period 2018–2022. The methodology includes collection efficiency, standard tax rate and the final consumption expenditure (FCE). Various scenarios are analysed, including a constant 5% VAT for 2018–2022; increasing it by 2.39% yearly; increasing it to reach the maximum 2014 country tax rate of 27%; or increasing it to reach an average tax rate of 19.1%. The collection efficiency values of 0.4–0.7 result in a 2018–22 tax revenue to GDP range of between 1.75 and 7.84%.     

增值税转型对企业融资约束的影响研究

本文基于2009年增值税转型改革,研究了后危机时代税制改革对企业融资约束的缓解作用。研究发现,增值税转型主要是通过对内源融资约束的缓解改善企业的融资约束,其政策效应呈逐年显现的状态。进一步研究发现,增值税转型对非国企融资约束的缓解作用强于国企;高管的金融背景越强,增值税转型对融资约束的缓解作用越大;企业所处地区的市场化程度越高,增值税转型对融资约束的缓解作用越明显。本文的研究不仅丰富了相关研究成果,拓展了宏观经济政策如何作用于微观企业、影响其财务行为的研究领域,结论对正在进行的营业税改征增值税的试点工作也具有一定参考价值。     

Fiscal Fan Charts: A Tool for Assessing Member States' (Likely?) Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules

This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, that of real GDP) or processes, and a parameter estimate of the sensitivity of the primary budget balance to the output gap for the member state under consideration. A model of the dynamic deficit–debt relationship allows the impact of random output growth to work its way through the fiscal arithmetic in a consistent and traceable way to produce fan charts over a five‐year forecast horizon. The initial set of fiscal fan charts included here for Ireland use the indicative public finance projections set out in its 2011 Update. The methodology makes the standard assumption of no fiscal policy response to any change in the budgetary position over the period such as could arise from changes in growth rates. Governments will, however, generally be in a position to adjust fiscal policy towards meeting a specific target, such as the 3 per cent Maastricht Treaty deficit target. A second set of fan charts is included that indicates how the probabilistic range of fiscal outcomes could be affected by a tightening of fiscal policy in 2013–15.     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession

In response to the 2008–2009 crisis, faced with distressed financial intermediaries, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked in longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) with full allotment. Using an estimated DSGE model with a frictional banking sector, we find that such liquidity injections have played a key role in averting a major credit crunch. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, absent these nonconventional measures, output, consumption, investment, and the GDP deflator would have been 2.5%, 0.5%, 9.7%, and 0.5% lower on average over 2009, respectively.     

The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.     

The Impact of a Minimum‐Wage Increase on Temporary‐Contract Workers

We study the impact of the 2016 increase in the Irish minimum wage on the hours worked and the probability of job loss of minimum‐wage workers. We pay particular attention to temporary‐contract workers, who may be more susceptible to changes to their working conditions than permanent employees. The results indicate that the increase in the minimum wage had a negative and statistically significant effect on the hours worked of minimum‐wage workers, with an average reduction of approximately 0.6 hours per week. For temporary workers, the effect was greater, with a decline of approximately 3 hours per week. We find no evidence that the increase in the minimum wage led to an increased probability of becoming jobless in the six‐month period following the rate change, nor did it affect employment shares in sectors employing large numbers of minimum‐wage workers.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

The value-added tax and growth: design matters

Previous research has shown that changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth. However, little is yet known about whether the way tax revenue is raised matters for growth. This paper examines whether, in the context of OECD countries, a revenue-neutral increase in the value-added tax (VAT), offset by a fall in income taxes, may have different effects on long-run growth depending on how the VAT is raised. We show that a revenue-neutral rise in the VAT promotes growth when it is raised through a rise in C-efficiency, while it does not when it is raised through a rise in the standard VAT rate, the rate applied to the largest portion of taxed consumption. C-efficiency measures the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption, which in advanced economies is largely due to the VAT that is not levied because of exemptions and reduced rates. Thus, our results suggest that an increase in C-efficiency, possibly reflecting the broadening of the VAT base through fewer exemptions and a more uniform rate structure with fewer reduced rates, promotes growth more than a rise in the standard rate.

     

The Economic Cost of Growing Up Poor: Estimating the GDP Loss Associated with Child Poverty*

One of the motivations for the UK government's target to reduce (and eventually eliminate) child poverty is the perception of a significant long‐term economic cost of growing up in poverty. This perception arises from the observation that individuals who experience poverty in their childhood earn less as adults, are less likely to be in employment, are more likely to engage in criminal or anti‐social activities and are more likely to experience poor health and lower life satisfaction. This paper quantifies these effects, and expresses them in terms of GDP losses to the nation. We begin by focusing on lost earnings that arise from poorer skills and reduced employment opportunities, and then move on to the wider costs associated with the higher crime rates, poorer health and reduced well‐being that are linked with growing up poor. We find a sizeable economic cost, with the cost of growing up in poverty amounting to at least 1 per cent of GDP.