Competition Policy: What are the Costs and Benefits of Measuring its Costs and Benefits?

Summary  Competition authorities are increasingly measuring the effects of their enforcement actions, seeking a robust justification for the proliferation of competition policy. We highlight the importance of identifying the right counterfactual against which to measure effects, and set out the relevant categories of costs and benefits. We then explore how a balance can be struck between the benefits and inherent limitations of these measurement exercises. Relatively crude analyses of cartel action benefits can be sufficient to achieve public legitimacy for competition policy. Assessing the effects of merger and conduct inquiries is often ambiguous, but could be used to improve decision-making processes. Director and Managing Consultant, respectively, at Oxera, Oxford and London. The valuable comments of Fod Barnes, Kerry Hughes and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone.     

人民币升值对中国利大于弊

人民币面对升值压力。许多国家,尤其是日本与美国,要求中国让人民币升值。人民币升值对中国有利也有弊,本文论述为何利大于弊。笔者中学时期,思想非常左倾,积极参加由马来西亚共产党领导的秘密学生运动。当时,我们左倾学生中,许多人都怀疑西方帝国主义国家操纵各国汇率,把...     

国际货币的竞争稳定

随着欧元的出现,两大国际货币之间的汇率频繁波动,使人觉得现存的国际货币体系相比以前更加不稳定。如何审视欧元出现后国际货币的稳定性问题,是一个仁者见仁、智者见智的问题。本文通过分析得出了稳定的结论,并对现实从一个方面进行了分析。     

Costs and Benefits of Export-Oriented Foreign Investment: The Case of China

The costs and benefits of export-oriented FDI have been discussed by Helleiner (1973, 1998), Watanabe (1972), Sharpston (1975), and others. Processed exports generated from FDI have constituted over half of the exports of Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and China. Despite the importance of processed exports, empirical studies of their costs and benefits are difficult due to lack of data, especially on transfer earnings. Data on the division of benefits between the source and host countries are scarce and unreliable. This paper examines the costs and benefits of export-oriented foreign investment for China. China has been highly successful in exporting and in attracting FDI, especially export-oriented FDI from Hong Kong. Since 1993, China has become the second largest recipient of FDI in the world after the US, and Hong Kong has become the world's fourth largest source of FDI after the US, UK, and Germany. China's processed exports are largely re-exported via Hong Kong. As a result, good data on the total value-added of processed exports for Mainland China and for Hong Kong are available. It is found that the rate of value-added for Mainland China is relatively low compare with that for Hong Kong, indicating transfer pricing and absence of linkages in the mainland. This appears to be due to the rigidity of China's economic system which hampers backward and forward linkages. The mainland is thus dependent on Hong Kong for many services in the value-added chain. However, the rate of value-added for China has increased substantially since 1996, indicating an increase in both backward and forward linkages.     

人民币作为国际储备货币的前景分析:以韩国的需求为例

文章使用附加惯性、贸易和外债约束以及带交易成本的MV-DCC-GARCH模型,求解2012年第三季度至2015年第四季度韩国央行外汇储备的最优币种结构,分析人民币成为韩国储备货币后的最优权重及其动态变化,并通过情景假设模拟人民币充当韩国储备货币的前景。研究发现:人民币占比对货币收益率的刻画方式高度敏感,在随机游走和完全预见假设下,人民币的平均最优权重分别为16.37%和10.85%,在非抛补利率平价假设下,权重降至2.49%;人民币的引入主要挤占主导性国际货币尤其是美元的份额,说明央行投资方向调整客观上会造成储备多元化;汇率波动加剧不利于人民币储备地位的稳定;人民币使用惯性的增强、跨境贸易中以人民币结算比例的提高以及以人民币计价的外债增加均能增加其份额。     

Measuring the Economic Costs and Benefits of the EU

The EU has pursued protectionist policies not merely in food but also in manufacturing at the customs union level. In services it has not dismantled much of the existing national protectionism. The economic costs are calculated here at some 3% of GDP for the UK and some 2% for the rest of the EU. Added to its social interventionism, these costs suggest that the EU has put political integration before economic efficiency. This paper draws heavily on my book with Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell (Minford et al., 2005). I am grateful for helpful comments to Kim Huynh, Michele Fratianni and other participants at the IU 2006 conference in Fratianni’s honour. I contributed this paper in recognition of many pleasurable discussions with Michele over the years on this and many other topics. JEL Classification Numbers: F13, F14     

国际货币体系的属性——基于国际货币契约的研究

本文从国际货币契约视角探讨国际货币体系的演变发展。文章认为现行国际货币体系的最根本属性在于无约束的纯信用本位货币特质,当前全球经济失衡问题正是在这种信用货币本位下的储备国道德风险作用的集中表现。本文对关于国际货币地位形成的"抵押资产契约"说进行评析,并认为未来国际货币体系将通过货币竞争朝着多元化方向发展来克服无约束的信用本位的弊端。     

货币危机对国际贸易的影响

本文在一般均衡框架下分析货币贬值对国际贸易的影响。与传统理论的预测不同,在一般均衡框架下,预期中的货币贬值对进出口只有短期影响,而意外的大幅度货币贬值会产生持久性冲击。通过应用引力方程对世界五十二个主要经济体1980～1998年间双边贸易额分析,我们发现,实证结果为理论预测提供了较好的支持。     

双本位国际货币体系的形成及其历史趋势——三大趋势如何冲破固化的世界经济格局

世界经济格局正在被美国经济的衰落、欧洲经济的整合和中国经济的崛起这三大趋势冲破.虚拟经济与实体经济的二元化运行方式,严重削弱了美国经济的自我恢复能力和经济政策的效力,美元正在失去霸主地位.欧元的出现和欧元区的经济整合使世界进入了"双本位国际货币体系",也使世界进入了空前动荡时期,世界流动性膨胀已经失控.与此同时,中国经济以其特有的方式实现了市场化与高增长并存的发展模式,顺利实现了市场化和外向型经济的转型,流动性膨胀正在诱使中国资本国际化,并带动人民币的国际化和中国经济的全球化发展.这三个趋势正在打造的世界经济新格局最终会稳定下来,并成为新的国际货币体系形成的基础.     

中药的入世之路

虽然中医药是中国的闰粹,但其命运一直与同为国粹的京剧差不多,如果不是中国经济由短缺变为过剩,商品供应由卖方市场转变为买方市场,大概没有人会去考虑中药的市场开发问题。但当我们真正关注中药市场,特别是面对开放的全球市场后,我们才猛然发现不只是国内市场巨大,国际市场更是一个诱人的大蛋糕。据专家介绍,目前中国国内的中药年销售额     

Making Sense of the Costs and Benefits of Brexit: Challenges for Economists

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union will have a wide-ranging effect on the British economy, but the scale and sequencing of the likely effects are hard to gauge. The uncertainties surrounding how a country separates itself from a regional economic bloc have posed challenges to the economics profession about how best to analyse the many consequences. The paper discusses the main lines of relevant economic argumentation, and reviews the evidence from studies of the likely effects of “Brexit”. It then considers how the UK’s economic linkages with the EU might evolve and examines some of the ensuing political economy challenges. The concluding section ponders the role of economists in so contentious a political development.     

日元作为国际储备货币的实证研究

本文利用计量经济模型对作为国际储备的日元进行了实证研究,并以实证结果为依据进一步解释了日元国际储备地位变动的原因,大致得出如下结论:日元国际储备地位的变动是多变量共同作用的结果,其中日本GDP和日元资产收益率起到了重要作用。     

欧盟东扩的收益、代价及其影响

欧盟东扩一直是欧洲一体化进程中难度最大的问题。从2004年5月1日起，波兰、匈矛利等中、东欧10国将陆续成为欧盟的新成员国。这就是说，长久以来欧盟东扩的计划即将实现。欧盟东扩不仅将极大地促进欧洲的稳定和经济发展，而且将提升欧盟作为多极世界中一极的国际地位和影响力。本文首先分析了新旧欧盟成员国基本经济状况和经贸联系以及东扩给欧盟成员国带来的有利影响，然后对东扩的不利影响以及对全球经济影响分别进行了讨论。     

Economic Costs and Benefits of Combating Terrorism in the Transport Sector

Countering the risks of terrorism imposes enormous costs. While it is impossible to remove completely the risk of terrorist attacks in the transport sector, measures designed to counter terrorism can add certainty and stability to the global economy, raise investor confidence and facilitate trade. Modelling suggests productivity losses associated with the increasing threat of terrorism can be more than offset by the positive effects of enhanced security. Nations have much to gain from cooperating to reduce the risk of terrorism.