欧元债务危机现状与前景分析

为防止全球经济过度衰退,各国政府统一行动,采取了积极的财政货币政策,最大限度地减少金融危机所带来的影响,而欧元区国家却为此陷入了巨大的债务危机.本文回顾了2009年以来爆发的欧洲主权债务危机,对比了希腊和爱尔兰债务危机的差别,并对欧洲主权债务危机的前景进行了分析。     

欧渊主板债务危机对我国外向型企业的影响及应对之策

一、欧洲主权债务危机 （一）欧洲主权债务危机的演进自2007年夏天美国次贷危机爆发以来。无论发达国家还是发展中国家都普遍采取了货币与财政双宽松的刺激政策．有效地抑制了全球经济下滑；但由于举债规模的扩大．各国政府的债务负担也不断加大，特别是对欧洲一些本来就债台高筑的国家来说更是雪上加霜。欧洲主权债务危机正是在这种特殊的背景下既偶然又必然地爆发了。     

欧洲主权账务危机探源

受到美国次债危机的影响,欧洲主权国家政府负债大增,并且欧洲主权债务危机国本身经济长期增长乏力,再加上其中有些国家过度依赖房地产和金融行业等容易产生泡沫的行业来推动经济的发展,从而最终引发了欧洲主权账务危机。为了减少欧洲债务危机对债务国和欧共体乃至全球经济的负面影响,欧盟必须从债务危机国的财务救助,债务危机国财政赤字,债务危机国的福利制度,欧盟层面金融制度建设和金融监管等方面进行改革。     

欧洲主权债务危机爆发内在经济因素的实证分析

欧洲主权债务危机的爆发对欧洲甚至全球金融体系和实体经济都产生了重要的冲击,债务危机的发生有着深层的内部经济原因。文章在债务危机风险模型推导的基础上,对引发欧洲主权债务危机的内在经济因素进行了实证分析,结果发现,国内生产总值增长的下降、单位劳动成本的上升、出口贸易的下降及政府财政赤字的增加是欧洲主权债务危机发生的主要内在经济因素。文章最后进行了总结并提出了对中国地方政府债务管理的启示。     

主权债务危机下欧洲国家公共服务改革的新动向

主权债务危机催生欧洲公共服务改革自2009年12月希腊主权债务危机发生起,债务危机逐步向欧洲其他国家蔓延。目前,陷入主权债务危机的希腊债务总额与GDP之比为136.8%,爱尔兰为112.7%,意大利为115.8%。     

欧洲主权债务危机形成机理及对中国的启示

目前，随着希腊主权债务危机的蔓延，主权债务危机几乎威胁着整个欧洲。此次主权债务危机正在考验着欧洲一体化的进程，对欧元区稳定提出了严峻的挑战。本文以希腊债务危机为切入点，着重分析此次主权债务危机的形成机理，这对我们正确认识危机有着非常重要的作用，同时对我国也有着不可忽视的借鉴意义。     

从欧洲主权债务危机看建设理性政府的必要性

<正>2009年12月,全球三大评级机构分别下调希腊主权债务评级,希腊债务问题开始浮出水面。此后,西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和意大利等欧盟国家的债务问题也开始凸显出来。时至今日,这场发端于希腊的主权债务问题已经发展蔓延成为一场对全球具有巨大影响的主权债务危机。在这场主权债务危机的冲击下,不但欧元区和整个欧盟都深受困扰,而且也给全球经济复苏的前景增加了更多的不确定性。     

希腊主权债务危机研究以及对中国的启示

由于处在全球金融危机的时代背景和独特的欧元区经济环境之下,希腊主权债务危机的发生有着自身的特点。对希腊主权债务危机的研究将有助于其他国家防范主权债务危机的发生,对于拥有巨大外汇储备和地方政府债务风险积聚的中国来说,也同样具有积极的意义。     

欧洲主权债务危机对中国的启示

欧洲主权债务危机的发生和演进不仅给后危机时代的全球经济复苏带来了严峻的挑战,也提醒各主权国家应该对政府债务问题给予足够的重视和警惕。中国中央政府债务虽然远在警戒线之下,但是庞大的隐形地方政府债务问题不容忽视,目前中国地方政府债务风险实际上已经超过金融风险,成为威胁国家经济安全与社会稳定的首要因素。因此有必要从严控地方政府原始举债规模、降低地方债务违约率、加强逾期债务清偿能力三方面对地方政府债务风险进行有效防控。     

走出欧债危机的对策研究——基于欧洲主权债务危机与80年代拉美债务危机的成因比较分析

本文比较分析了典型的发达国家和发展中国家所爆发的债务危机,即当前爆发的欧洲主权债务危机与20世纪80年代拉丁美洲地区债务危机,其所爆发的成因有诸多相似之处,主要从危机爆发前的外部经济环境和危机爆发国家深刻的内在原因两方面进行分析。在此借鉴拉美国家应对危机的经验与措施,为欧债危机找寻出路。     

Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch

During the 2007–2009 financial crisis, US subprime mortgage risk exposures led to severe liquidity problems in several other foreign markets. Such risk contagion was caused by enormous changes in interest rates. Although risk contagion has been investigated by several literatures, the magnitude of propagated interest rate risk around global financial markets remains unexplored. Therefore, this study quantifies the degree to which the increased credit risk within the US financial system propagated to the European markets’ liquidity risks. Specifically, using a conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) model, we quantitatively measure interest rate risk of a European country, by looking at the upside risk in distribution of changes in interest rate. And such propagation risk measure considers additional value-at-risk conditional on the interest rate movements in the US. The results show significantly positive differences between European country's value-at-risk conditional on the US financial markets being in a normal or distressed state. This propagating effect increased from 2007, and was particularly pronounced in the 2008–2009. In addition, the interest rate risk contagion is especially severe for some countries in the Euro regions with greater sovereign debt problems. Hence our result foretells the deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis which started to unfold in 2010. Our work supplements the literature by successfully quantifying the magnitude of additional interest rate risk conditional on risk exposure from external sectors.     

基于模糊综合判断法的地方政府债务风险评价

世界性的金融危机让西方许多国家面临严重的主权债务危机,地方政府债务危机成为世界不稳定的因素之一。近年来,我国地方政府债务风险逐渐增大,2013年IMF、穆迪、惠誉及高盛等外资金融机构均发布了对中国地方政府性债务的警示报告,指出我国地方政府性债务存在失控风险。文章回顾了国内外政府债务风险评价研究现状,建立了地方政府风险评价指标体系,并试图通过模糊综合判断法和层次分析法建立地方政府风险评价模型,最后就我国某市地方政府债务指标进行实证研究,以论证模型的可行性。     

Symposium: Youth labour market and the “Great Recession”

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, followed by the “Great Recession” and the additional sovereign debt crisis in some peripheral countries of the Eurozone, resulted in huge and persistent effects on European youth labour markets. Theoretical and empirical investigations on this topic are still scarce compared with the importance of the topic and the consequent economic, social and policy implications. This paper consists of a very short introduction to a symposium that contributes to filling that gap. A multifaceted picture emerges with major policy implications for the three levels of government (European, national and regional/local) in order to reduce youth unemployment and the NEET phenomenon.     

Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.     

Let's fight the next sovereign debt war now

Recent difficulties in Mexico have reminded us of the dangers of financial crisis in heavily indebted countries. In this article, Richard Portes argues that we need to plan now to deal with the next sovereign debt crisis. He proposes a programme of reform to enable an orderly 'work-out'of debt in such situations. This, he argues, is preferable to an expensive bailout or a messy and dangerous default.     

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries. Besides, without exception, the marginal effects of sovereign spread drivers (specifically, the variables that measure global market sentiment) increased during the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period, especially in peripheral countries. Moreover, the increase in the significance of the banking level of indebtedness and foreign bank's claims in the public sector (mainly in peripheral countries) along with the crisis unfolding seems to highlight the interconnection between private and public debt and thus, between banking and sovereign crises.     

希腊债务危机的负面影响与警示

对希腊债务危机的内外部原因进行分析,剖析希腊债务危机的负面影响,主要表现在:影响欧元区乃至欧洲经济的稳定,危机可能会蔓延到部分欧洲银行,债务解决出现两难困境,可能诱发全球赤字浪潮爆发,造成全球经济的波动。总结出希腊债务危机启示:欧盟①组建强有力的欧洲货币基金组织对债务问题进行及时有效的救助,金融创新需要与实体经济发展相匹配;对中国而言,尤其是要关注各级地方政府积累的巨额债务。     

Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns

This paper adopts the robust cross-correlation function methodology developed by Hong (J Econom 103:183–224, 2001) in order to test for volatility and mean spillovers between Greek long-term government bond yields and the banking sector stock returns of four Southern European countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Its primary focus is on investigating the potential impacts of the recent European sovereign debt crisis. While most previous studies have focused on within-country causalities, we rather assess cross-country transmission effects. The presented results provide evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between Greek long-term interest rates and the banking sector equities of Portugal, Italy, and Spain that emerged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We also find significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from bank stock returns in Greece to Greek long-term bond yields during the crisis period as well as significant causality at the mean level from the bank equity returns in Portugal, Italy, and Spain to Greek bond yields.     

Banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union without central bank intervention

We analyze the conditions of emergence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis within a monetary union in which: (i) the central bank is not allowed to provide direct financial support to stressed member states or to play the role of lender of last resort in sovereign bond markets, and (ii) the responsibility of fighting against large scale bank runs, ascribed to domestic governments, is ensured through the implementation of a financial safety net (banking regulation and government deposit guarantee). We show that this broad institutional architecture, typical of the Eurozone at the onset of the financial crisis, is not always able to prevent the occurrence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis triggered by pessimistic investors’ expectations. Without significant backstop by the central bank, the financial safety net may actually aggravate, instead of improve, the financial situation of banks and of the government.