Multivariate proxies and asset pricing relations: Living with the Roll critique

A framework is developed in which inferences can be made about the validity of an equilibrium asset pricing relation, even though the central aggregate in this relation is unobservable. A multivariate proxy for the true market portfolio, consisting of an equal-weighted stock index and a long-term government bond index, is employed in an investigation of the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. The empirical evidence suggests that we can reject the joint hypothesis that (a) CAPM is valid, and (b) multiple correlation between the true market portfolio and proxy assets exceeds 0.7. Connections to the equilibrium factor pricing literature are also explored.     

活跃因子和杠杆因子表现分析——基于A股市场的多因子资产定价研究

多因子资产定价理论是继CAPM理论之后的重大创新,也是时下资本资产定价研究领域的最新成果。本文搜集整理多因子资产定价理论的相关文献,分析梳理其发展脉络。通过理论探究,引入以市值增长率为代理变量的活跃因子和以资产负债率来衡量的杠杆因子。基于我国A股市场进行Fama-MacBeth横截面和时间序列的回归检验,发现加入活跃因子和杠杆因子后的八因子模型解释能力可以得到进一步的增强,其中活跃因子的表现显著,而杠杆因子对股票超额收益解释能力相对较弱,但仍强于六因子模型中的风格因子。     

Liquidity,Skewness and Stock Returns: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

In this paper, a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) incorporating liquidity and skewness factors is proposed and tested by using the Chinese stock market data. The empirical results indicate that, under various market conditions, the liquidity-adjusted three-moment CAPM provides a better fit to the realized returns of various stock portfolios. Overall, this research reveals that illiquidity cost, liquidity risk and as well as skewness have important impacts on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market.     

A perfect storm in the financial market

This study provides a model explaining how small changes in asset prices may disrupt an entire financial market. Based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), our model implies that during a market crash, asset price changes affect the relative distribution of the CAPM betas of individual assets and force all tradable assets to co-move. Using US stock market data, our empirical results are consistent with the model’s predictions. Overall, the study aids understanding of the price patterns of assets during substantial market downturns, such as financial crises.     

Ownership Restrictions and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese Markets

In this paper, I test a one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) under share ownership restrictions to explain differences in prices and expected excess returns between the classes of shares that can be bought and traded by domestic and foreign investors, respectively, in the Chinese stock markets. I find that cross-sectional variability in the spread between the expected domestic and foreign share excess returns is related to differences in individual shares' market betas. The empirical results are by and large consistent with the CAPM. After the betas are controlled for, idiosyncratic variance and firm size have no effect.     

Evaluating asset pricing models in the Korean stock market

This paper evaluates and compares asset pricing models in the Korean stock market. The asset pricing models considered are the CAPM, APT-motivated models, the Consumption-based CAPM, Intertemporal CAPM-motivated models, and the Jagannathan and Wang conditional CAPM model. By using various test portfolios as well as individual stocks, we conduct time-series tests and cross-sectional regression tests based on individual t-tests, the joint F-tests, the Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) distance, and R-squares. Overall, the Fama and French (1993) five-factor model performs most satisfactorily among the asset pricing models considered in explaining the intertemporal and cross-sectional behavior of stock returns in Korea. The Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, the Chen et al. (2010) three-factor model, and the Campbell (1996) model are the next. The results indicate that the two bond portfolios, term spread and default spread, play an important role in explaining stock returns in Korea.     

Alternate approach to unify CAPM and APT

We utilize the joint elliptical distribution to model a multi-factor return generating process and derive an equilibrium multi-beta capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in which the market portfolio and a set of nonelliptical factors are sufficient to price all financial assets. Most important, it is shown that the market portfolio, while generally nonelliptical, can proxy all elliptical factors and hence: including elliptical factors in addition to the market portfolio in the pricing equation contribute nothing to asset pricing. While the representative investor prices the exposure of aggregate wealth to various nonelliptical systematic risk factors, individual securities are priced in accordance to their contributions to different aspects of the risk of aggregate wealth. The present model collapses to the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM when either the market investor is neutral to nonelliptical risk factors or when all risk factors follow a joint spherical distribution. When residuals cancel out of the market portfolio, the present model collapses to Conner (1984) pricing model.     

Asset pricing dynamics

This paper is concerned with the issue of dynamics in financial data and asset pricing models such as the CAPM. A literature review in this area is undertaken and highlights the need for a modern time series econometric approach in asset pricing. Such an approach is discussed and deals with problems related to structural breaks and microstructures, dynamics in the mean and variance process, and non-stationary regressions and cointegration. An empirical application using UK stock market data demonstrates the merit of the proposed methodology in correcting market model regressions.     

NONNESTED PROCEDURES IN ECONOMETRIC TESTS OF ASSET PRICING THEORIES

In this paper nonnested tests are used to contrast the performance of the capital asset pricing (CAPM) and consumption capital asset pricing (CCAPM) theories in describing the U.S. stock market. The procedures employed include the N‐test, the NT‐test, the W‐test, the J‐test, and the Encompassing test. The tests are carried out using data on firms as well as portfolios based on beta, capitalization, and Standard Industrial Classification codes. The findings indicate that although during 1973–82 the CAPM dominates the CCAPM, during 1978–87 the results are mixed, and during 1983–92 the CCAPM dominates. The finding in favor of the CCAPM in 1983–92 conflicts with much of the existing literature, which favors the CAPM.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

考虑流动性的三阶矩资本资产定价的理论模型与实证研究

本文把流动性风险、偏态风险引进传统CAPM模型中,推导出基于流动性的三阶矩资本资产定价的理论模型。本文的模型表明,证券(组合)的收益依赖于它的期望流动性成本、其流动性成本和市场流动性成本的协方差以及其收益和市场收益的协方差与协偏态。本文采用我国A股市场的股票收益数据对模型进行了实证检验.检验结果表明,我国A股市场的证券(组合)的风险溢价在大盘升降区间体现了不同的特征,无论是在全样本区间还是两个子样本区间,基于流动性的三阶矩资本资产定价模型都能更好的拟合资产收益,说明了流动性和偏态因素在我国A股市场的资产定价中有重要影响。     

The Subjective Valuation of Indexed Stock Options and Their Incentive Effects

We analyze the potential role of indexed stock options in future pay‐for‐performance executive compensation contracts. We present a unified framework for index‐linked stock options, discuss their incentive effects, argue that indexation schemes based on the capital‐asset pricing model (CAPM) are the most suitable for executive compensation, and derive a subjective pricing model for the class of CAPM‐based indexed stock options. Contrary to earlier work, executives would not be motivated to take on investment projects with high idiosyncratic risk once their lack of wealth diversification and degree of risk aversion are factored into the analysis.     

The CAPM and value at risk at different time-scales

By resorting to wavelet analysis, we estimate the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) at different time-scales for the Chilean stock market. Our sample comprises 24 stocks that were actively traded on the Santiago Stock Exchange over 1997-2002. We find evidence in support of the CAPM at a medium-term horizon. We extend the literature in this area to analyze the impact of time scaling on the computation of value at risk. We conclude that risk is concentrated at higher frequencies of the data.     

Idiosyncratic momentum and the cross‐section of stock returns: Further evidence

In this article, we evaluate the profitability and economic source of the predictive power of the idiosyncratic momentum effect, by using five popular asset pricing models to construct the idiosyncratic momentum. We show that all five idiosyncratic momentum strategies produce similar return predictability and consistently outperform the conventional momentum strategy in the cross‐sectional pricing of equity portfolios and individual stocks. This positive effect of idiosyncratic momentum on returns is consistent with the investment capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Further analysis reveals that the firm‐level idiosyncratic momentum effect cannot extend to the aggregate stock market.     

Cashflow news,the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration

The decomposition of national CAPM market betas of European countries’ value and growth portfolio returns into cashflow and discount rate news driven components reveals that i) high average returns on value portfolios are associated with disproportionately high sensitivity to national cashflow news which corroborates recent evidence for the U.S. and ii) two-beta variants of national CAPMs capture the cross-sectional dispersion in European stock returns. The latter finding is suggestive of relatively well integrated stock markets among the core European countries and reflects basic asset pricing theory. One (national) discount factor should price any (international) asset.     

ASSET PRICING WITH IN- AND OUTFLOW CONSTRAINTS: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SWEDEN

The paper analyzes asset pricing and portfolio choice when domestic investors collectively cannot hold foreign assets beyond a maximum value. We add the constraint that foreign investors cannot hold more than a fraction of the shares of domestic assets. Consistent with Swedish stock market data, both domestic and foreign investors pay premiums for investing in the other country's assets. Some empirical observations are inconsistent with the CAPM framework.     

IS THE BOOK‐TO‐MARKET RATIO A MEASURE OF RISK?

We develop a leverage‐based alternative to traditional asset pricing models to investigate whether the book‐to‐market ratio acts as a proxy for risk. We argue that the book‐to‐market ratio should act as a proxy because of the expected relations between (1) financial risk and measures of capital structure based on the market value of equity and (2) asset risk and measures of capital structure based on the book value of equity. We find no relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in all‐equity firms after controlling for firm size, and an inverse relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in firms with a negative book value of equity.     

A reply to Mayers and Rice (1979)

Mayers and Rice do not resolve the basic problem in portfolio performance evaluation with the securities market line, the ambiguity introduced by being obliged to choose a market index. Other performance evaluation techniques exist and possess some superior qualities. The Mayers-Rice discussion of my critique of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) fails to recognize the CAPM's unusual testing implications and ignores the existence of alternative asset pricing theories. Residual analysis should give approximately correct estimates of the abnormal returns caused by specific events if it is conducted with the market model.     

Omitted debt risk, financial distress and the cross-section of expected equity returns

The study of Ferguson and Shockley (2003) shows that, if the Merton (1974) model can reflect reality, the omission of debt claims from the market portfolio proxy may explain the poor pricing ability of the CAPM in empirical tests. We critically re-assess this argument by first reviewing existing, but also new avenues through which the Merton (1974) model can point to a systematic bias in market beta estimates. However, we also show that some avenues are diversifiable, and that they all rely on excessive economy-wide default risk to create a non-negligible bias. We then use the Merton (1974) model to proxy for the total debt portfolio, but find that its application in empirical tests cannot improve pricing performance. We conclude that there are (so far) no valid theoretical reasons to believe that omitted debt claims undermine CAPM tests.     

Market proxies as factors in linear asset pricing models: Still living with the roll critique

A new model misspecification measure for linear asset pricing models is proposed for the case where misspecification maps to latency of one of the pricing factors; in this case, the market return. This measure is suited both for testing models that include the market return as a pricing factor in a traditional sense (i.e., whether the chosen model does or does not price a collection of risky assets) and ranking those models (i.e., determining which model performs best). The proposed measure is used in pricing portfolios reflecting the size, value, and momentum premia. The conditional CAPM of Jagannathan and Wang (1996) is found to best the performance of both the simple CAPM and the ICAPM of Petkova (2006). Moreover, it is discovered that winner stocks in a momentum portfolio may have higher market betas than loser stocks.