The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility

This research empirically analyzes the impact of various instruments of economic sanctions on official exchange rate volatility by employing data from a panel of 23 target countries covering the period 1996–2015 and using the Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) model. Our findings suggest that economic sanctions do significantly influence the target countries’ exchange rate volatility. Specifically, we are able to see different sanction present its different effects on exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, the robustness evidence of the eliminating country as Iran, eliminating variable of political ideology, intercepting time period, cross-sectional regression analysis, using real exchange rate volatility as proxy variable and a new sanctions database, are basically consistent with the previous finding. Overall, our empirical findings offer implications for those sanctioned countries about how to stabilize their exchange rate when facing sanctions.     

International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states

This paper investigates the impact of international sanctions on energy efficiency by employing the panel fixed effect as well as average marginal effect from the Tobit model via data on 30 sanctioned states over the period 1996–2015 with international sanctions including unilateral, plurilateral, U.S., EU, UN, economic, and non-economic cases. Overall, we find that the imposition of unilateral sanctions leads to a 0.067% decrease in energy efficiency, but that of plurilateral sanctions positively contribute to energy efficiency in the case of the full sample of countries. Moreover, the imposition of UN sanctions has a greater decrease on energy efficiency in the target states than the 0.042% reduction of energy efficiency when the sanctionist is the U.S. For robustness, empirical results indicate that the imposition of plurilateral sanctions results in a drop of energy efficiency in Islamic countries, but an increase in non-Islamic countries, while there are also negative shocks induced by the imposition of EU sanctions on energy efficiency in Asian countries, but not for non-Asian countries. We also consider endogenous problems and dynamic specification by using indicator variables and System GMM. In summary, our empirical findings provide policy suggestions for those sanctioned countries about how to maintain energy efficiency when facing international sanctions.     

Externalities of economic sanctions on performance of intra-industry non-sanctioned firms: Evidence from Zimbabwe

This paper investigates the effect of targeted economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union on the performance of intra-industry non-sanctioned firms. Using data of non-sanctioned firms listed on the Zimbabwe stock exchange during the period 2009–2018, our regression results show that non-sanctioned firms in the same industry as sanctioned firms perform better than ordinary non-sanctioned firms, signalling the positive competitive effect. A mediating test suggests that sanctions increase the market share of non-sanctioned firms in the same industry as sanctioned firms and subsequently increase their performance.     

The impact of two different economic systems on dishonesty

Using an artefactual field experiment, this paper tests the long-term implications of living in a specific economic system on individual dishonesty. By comparing cheating behaviour across individuals from the former socialist East of Germany with those of the capitalist West of Germany, we examine behavioural differences within a single country. We find long-term implications of living in a specific economic system for individual dishonesty when social interactions are possible: participants with an East German background cheated significantly more on an abstract die-rolling task than those with a West German background, but only when exposed to the enduring system of former West Germany. Moreover, our results indicate that the longer individuals had experienced socialist East Germany, the more likely they were to cheat on the behavioural task.     

The impact of artificial intelligence on economic growth and welfare

Focusing on the self-accumulation ability and the nonrival characteristic of artificial intelligence (AI), this paper develops a three-sector endogenous growth model and investigates the impact of the development of AI along the transitional dynamics path and the balanced growth path. The development of AI can increase economic growth along the transitional dynamics path, and can increase household short-run utility if an increase in the accumulation of AI is due to the rising productivity in the goods or AI sector, but can be detrimental to household short-run utility if an increase in the accumulation of AI is because firms use more AI to replace human labor. In addition, the development of AI is not necessarily beneficial to household welfare in the long run. The main results are unaffected when considering the case where AI can improve the accumulation of human capital, the traditional research and development model, and different kinds of physical capital.     

The economic impact of telecommunications diffusion on UK productivity growth

This paper investigates the relationship between telecommunications infrastructure competition, investment and productivity. Using a novel methodology comprising of econometric modelling and input–output economics, the extent to which telecommunications has contributed to national and sectoral productivity performance is examined. The main findings from this paper suggest that most industries have benefited from the incorporation of advances of telecommunications technology, which might have, amongst other things, emanated from encouraging infrastructure investment, in their production processes.     

The impact of home production on economic inequality in Germany

Using representative income and time-use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we estimate non-monetary income advantages arising from home production and analyze their impact on economic inequality. As an alternative to existing measures, we propose a predicted wage approach that relaxes some of the strong assumptions underlying both the standard opportunity cost approach and the housekeeper wage approach. We also propose a method of adjusting the number of hours spent on home production to reduce the bias arising from multi-tasking and joint production in time-use data. Sensitivity analyses comparing results among different approaches provide indications of method effects. Although this study supports the evidence that considering home production leads to a reduction in inequality, we show that the size of this effect differs according to the variations in the mean and distribution of the estimated monetary value of home production across the three approaches. This finding underscores the need for a harmonized approach in cross-national comparative research.     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth

We present a model of growth driven by energy use and endogenous factor-augmenting technological change. Both the rate and direction of technological progress are endogenous. The model captures four main stylised facts: total energy use has increased; energy use per hour worked increased slightly; energy efficiency has improved; and the value share of energy in GDP has steadily fallen. We study how energy conservation policies affect growth over time and in the long run. Policies that reduce the level of energy use are distinguished from those that reduce the growth rate of energy inputs. Although these policies may stimulate innovation, they unambiguously depress output levels. The former policy has no impact on long-run growth; the latter reduces long-run growth both in the short run and in the long run.     

The economic impact of digital technologies in Europe

This paper analyses the economic impact of digital technologies in Europe distinguishing between different stages/domains of the digitalization process. A set of composite Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) indicators is used for capturing the access to ICTs, the ability to use them and the digital empowerment of individuals in key social and economic domains. We argue that the mere accessibility to ICT facilities is only a pre-condition for moving towards a digitalized society, while the ‘level’ and the ‘quality’ in the use of these technologies, as well as the conditions facilitating or hampering digital empowerment, play a much more important role. Several transmission mechanisms from ICT access, usage and digital empowerment to key macro-economic variables (namely labour productivity, gross domestic product per capita, employment growth and the employment rate) are identified. The econometric evidence supports our hypotheses showing that the usage of ICT, and mostly digital empowerment, exert the major economic effects, especially on employment also favouring the inclusion of ‘disadvantaged’ groups in the labour market. We conclude that digitalization may drive productivity and employment growth and that inclusive policies may effectively contribute to bridge the gap between the most favoured and the disadvantaged parts of the population, thus helping in achieving the 2020 Europe targets.     

The economic impact of reducing on-base naval housing

This article develops a methodology for estimating the impact on rents and home prices from a hypothetical reduction of on-base naval housing from 56 naval bases in the United States. Based on data from the Center for Naval Analyses and the U.S. Census of Housing, and response coefficients from housing economics literature, illustrative estimates are presented of the short-run and long-run and long-run impact of reducing naval housing.
Key factors determining the increase in rents and home prices include (1) the increase in demand for housing in the private sector resulting from the reduction of on-base naval housing, (2) the short-run and long-run elasticities of supply of private sector housing with respect to housing prices, and (3) the elasticity of demand to live in a defined housing area with respect to housing prices.
We find that the effects on rents and home prices are in most cases small in the short run and negligible in the long run. The median first-year rent increase in the 53 counties is estimated to be 0.90%, with only 9 of the counties still expected to experience rent increases of as much as 4%. In the long run, the median rent increase is estimated to be only 0.10%. Because the purchase of a home is a long-term investment, we find that the impact on home prices is negligible, similar to the long-run impact on rents.     

The economic impact of implementing an ergonomic plan

It is of paramount importance for executives to be well aware of registered nurse (RN) hidden replacement costs related to musculoskeletal injuries. Developing and implementing an ergonomic plan that includes procurement of appropriate lifting equipment at the point of care makes sense. Armed with an ergonomic plan, proactive case management, and a return to work program, the organization is positioned for fiscal success. The ANA's Handle With Care campaign addressed the fact that 12% of RN turnover and 38% of RN workers' compensation pay are related to back strains. Using the benchmarks reported in the Handle With Care campaign, the average cost of replacing an RN who leaves nursing due to a back injury ranged from $25,450 to $38,280 per nurse. Health care worker injury prevention should be valued as a retention strategy, as well as a fiscal responsibility where all stakeholders benefit.     

The impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity in OECD countries

Evaluating the effects of defense spending on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, on economic productivity is a critical issue. This study integrates Malmquist productivity index (MPI) with bootstrapping to establish statistical inferences that provide a complete, effective analysis of the impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity between 1993 and 2009 for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries. The findings indicate that the average MPI with defense expenditure is higher than that without defense expenditure. Additionally, region based productivity analysis indicates that the appropriate allocation of defense expenditure can increase regional economic productivity effectively across Asia, Oceania and Europe. Moreover, the results further prove that the effective defense expenditure strategies undertaken by government are important for improving economic productivity of countries. The integrated methodology approach applied in this study can be used for further similar studies.     

The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth

This paper analyses whether Maastricht and Stability and Growth Pact fiscal rules have affected growth in the European Union negatively. A growth equation is specified for a group of 15 European Union countries (and 8 OECD countries) over the period 1970-2005 to analyse this issue. Panel estimations using fixed-effects, pooled mean group and system-GMM estimators show that the institutional changes that occurred in the European Union after 1992 were not harmful to growth. Moreover, results show that growth is slightly higher in the period in which the fulfilment of the 3% criteria for the deficit started to be officially assessed, i.e. after 1997.     

The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy

Asset prices may react to news through changes in expected monetary policy. We examine whether economic news directly affects expected changes in monetary policy, measured by changes in federal funds rate futures prices. Because these prices depend on monthly averages of the effective funds rate, the timing of FOMC meetings relative to news announcements is important and we derive a method of weighting the news that incorporates this timing. We find that the market raises (lowers) its expected change in the funds rate target after news that inflation was higher (lower) than expected or employment was stronger (weaker) than expected.     

The effects of economic freedom,regulatory quality and taxation on the level of per capita real income: a preliminary analysis for OECD nations and non-G8 OECD nations

This study of the impact of economic freedom, regulatory quality and the relative burden of taxation on the level of per capita real income/GDP among OECD nations over the period 2003 to 2007 adopts a modified version of the overall economic freedom index computed by the Heritage Foundation (2013), one with the fiscal freedom and business freedom indices removed. This study then provides panel least squares fixed-effects estimates for five linear specifications/models. Each nation during this time frame can be regarded either as a nation per se or as a de facto ‘economic region’ within the OECD. The analysis first focuses upon all of the OECD nations and then, as a robustness test, subsequently focuses only on non-G8 OECD member nations. The estimations in this study all provide strong empirical support for the three central hypotheses proffered here, namely: (1) the higher the overall degree of economic freedom, the higher the per capita real income (GDP) level; (2) the higher the level of regulatory quality, the higher the level of per capita real income (GDP) and (3) the higher the overall tax burden, expressed as a per cent of GDP, the lower is the level of per capita real income (GDP).     

The impact of military technology transfer on economic growth: international evidence

The purpose of this article is to measure the impact of military technology transfer on economic growth for 67 selected countries during the period 2000 to 2005 through the application of the Malmquist productivity index, which is broken down into efficiency change and technical change. Our main findings are as follows. First, technology diffusion is all-pervading in half of the sampled countries due to pure efficiency and scale efficiency changes. Second, a higher-income level and an excess of arms imports lead to innovative activities. Third, middle-income countries have higher efficiency and pure efficiency changes; these contribute to higher total productivity change. Finally, after separating the impact of capital investment from that of arms imports, the diffusion of military technology has a more positive and substantial impact on economic growth, thereby revealing the presence of externalities between countries.     

The impact of third-country effects and economic integration on China's outward FDI

The study employs a spatial econometric model to explore the impact of third-country effects and economic integration on China's outward FDI (OFDI). The results show that the pattern of China's OFDI tends toward a complex FDI without third-country effects. The degree of economic integration and host country's political risk both have a negative influence on China's OFDI. Furthermore, greater cultural proximity between China and the host country, as well as greater per capita income (market size), both have significant benefits to China's OFDI. The host country's market opportunity has a significant negative effect on China's OFDI.     

On the heterogeneous impact of public capital and current spending on growth across nations

This paper captures the heterogeneous impact on growth, of public capital and current spending, for 15 developing countries. Using the GMM system panel estimator, we show that countries with substantial public capital (current) spending have strong negative (positive) growth effects.