THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES TO EMPLOYMENT CREATION AND GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA

This study examines the linkages between the manufacturing and services sectors, and between each of them and the rest of the domestic economy, based on analysis of input-output tables and employment trends. This reveals that manufacturing is particularly important as a source of demand for the services sector as well as the rest of the economy through its strong backward linkages, which suggests that in this respect a decline in manufacturing could negatively affect future growth. Services are especially important in terms of employment creation, both direct and indirect.     

EMPLOYMENT,CAPITAL, AND PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN URUGUAY

Using a sample of Uruguayan manufacturing establishments we analyze employment, capital, and productivity dynamics over a period of currency appreciation; changes in trade policy; and changes in the institutional setting of wage negotiations. As the relative capital–labor price ratio fell, capital intensity increased. At the same time, there was an increase in labor and total factor productivity. Creation and destruction rates were relatively high and pervasive over time, sectors, establishment size, and establishment age, with exits explaining a sizeable part of destruction rates. Most of the excess reallocation was due to movements “within” rather than “between” sectors. Thus, high reallocation rates were linked to establishment‐level heterogeneity rather than aggregate shocks.     

SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

AN ECONOMY ILL-SUITED TO YOUNGER WORKERS: CHILD AND YOUTH WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION IN COLONIAL QUEENSLAND, 1886–1901

This article explores the extent and significance of child and youth work in late 19th century Australia. It demonstrates that, while demographic changes meant that almost half the population was aged 19 years or less, this age cohort never comprised more than 18 per cent of the recorded workforce. It is argued that this under-representation reflects the fact that children and youths were ill-suited to the work demands of most colonial occupations. They did not threaten the position of adult males in the key areas of the economy such as construction, heavy engineering, pastoral work, mining and transport.     

WOULD CHEAPER CAPITAL REPLACE LABOUR?

Left‐leaning members of the ruling alliance should be careful what they wish for. By estimating elasticities of substitution and factor demand between capital and four labour types, we find microeconomic evidence that cheaper capital would reduce demand for labour. While capital and all occupations are substitutes, many but not all occupations are themselves complements. These results allow for endogenous changes in output and apply to the vast majority of firms in our sample.     

POST-CHANDLERIAN FIRMS: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND FIRM BOUNDARIES

While the Chandlerian firm has come to dominate large sectors of advanced economies, recent studies have shown that the properties of knowledge used by firms, the dynamic nature of transaction costs, and the impact of information and communication technologies on organisations might reduce firm scale and scope. We present a contingent model of firm boundaries that explains why, as a result of technological change, firms might simultaneously outsource some activities that they had formerly preferred to produce in-house while increasing their vertical integration in other areas. We support our conclusions with evidence from different industries.     

STRUCTURE, CONDUCT AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTO INSURANCE MARKET: 1980-2000

The traditional structure-conduct-performance framework makes the explicit prediction that market structure determines market conduct, performance and power. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate this prediction using the South African (SA) short-term auto insurance market. The empirical evidence shows that a link between market structure and market conduct, performance and/or power is not present. Prices and profits are not statistically significantly related to various sellers' concentration measure and do not follow any explicit trend over time. By construction, profits are directly related to prices and follow a cyclical trend, as observed in other countries. A secondary goal of this paper is to compare the findings for the US auto insurance market with the empirical evidence on the SA auto insurance market. While there are few similarities, there is an underwriting cycle in the SA auto insurance market such as is observed for the US auto insurance market.     

INFORMALIZATION OF INDUSTRIAL LABOR IN INDIA: EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET RIGIDITIES AND IMPORT COMPETITION

Since the 1980s, industrial labor in India has been increasingly informalized, manifested in a rising share of unorganized sector employment and the growing use of temporary and contract workers, and subcontracting in organized manufacturing. Using unit‐level data from the National Sample Survey employment–unemployment survey for 2004–5, the paper investigates econometrically whether labor market rigidities and import competition have been responsible for the informalization of industrial labor in India. The results of econometric models show that labor market reforms tend to increase the creation of regular jobs, while import competition tends to raise casual employment among workers with education levels above primary.     

DEVELOPING EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF INNOVATIONS: MICROECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This paper aims to identify the effects of innovation on employment and labor composition in Taiwan. Using a new and detailed firm‐level data set, the empirical results determine that innovations, measured by R&D investments or patent counts, have a positive impact on employment. Both of the estimated employment effects of product and process innovations are overall significantly positive. Although the effects of process innovations differ between high and low R&D‐intensive industries, the process innovation tends to expand the firms’ output and then increase employment for high R&D‐intensive industries. However, it frequently results in laborsavings in terms of production work and reduces jobs in low R&D‐intensive industries. Moreover, technological innovations are found to be non‐neutral, leading to a shift in labor composition in favor of skilled and more educated workers.     

REVISITING SOUTH AFRICAN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN THE 1990S

This article revisits South African employment trends recorded since 1995. In particular, it investigates whether the job losses and gains recorded by the October Household Survey jobs in the mid-1990s reflect the reality. This is done by comparing the different official data sets, and by exploring alternative sources of information for three sectors that substantially influenced this trend, namely formal agriculture, mining, and community, social and personal services. Potential inconsistencies within the October Household data are assessed, particularly in relation to the distribution of employees across formal and informal sectors and the categorisation of unpaid family workers. The implications of possible changes to the employment trend from 1995-2006 are considered. This article finds that the evidence is strong enough to call into question published employment trends. According to the October Household Survey, formal employment fell by 1.4 million between 1995 and 1997. The OHS and Labour Force Survey shows that formal employment then grew by 1.9 million between 1997 and 2006. According to the revised figures presented in this paper, 73,000 to 530,000 formal jobs were lost between 1995 and 1997 and 1.4 million net new jobs were created between 1997 and 2006. It is therefore possible that the plummeting and recovery of employment in the 1990s were both considerably less dramatic than that reflected in the official statistics. Further research and investigation would be required to validate these trends.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF EMPLOYMENT: A SECTORAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

This paper analyzes the effects of wages, openness, and demand on employment in the private manufacturing industry in Turkey based on panel data for the period of 1973–2001. The wage elasticity of employment increases after trade liberalization. Nevertheless, output elasticity of labor demand is higher than wage elasticity in the total manufacturing sector for the whole estimation period, and in the high- and medium-skilled sectors in the post-1980 period. Trade effects, after controlling for output, seem to have a low economic significance. The positive effects of exports on the labor intensity of production are low or are offset by labor saving effects of foreign trade, particularly in the high- and medium-skilled sectors. On the other hand, there is some evidence of a negative import effect in the low-skilled sectors, whereas in the high- and medium-skilled group a complementary relation between domestic labor and imported inputs dominates the effects.     

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL ENROLMENT AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA1

This paper investigates the determinants of demand for schooling in Kenya. Probit and ordered probit methods are used to model enrolment and attainment respectively. The results show that child characteristics, parental education and other household characteristics, quality and cost of schooling are important determinants of demand for education services in Kenya. The results further show that girls would be more affected by policy changes than boys. The findings call for targeting in efforts to boost and sustain demand for schooling in Kenya. The study recommends immediate policy interventions focusing on improving quality of education and poverty alleviation.     

THE IMPACT OF HIGHLY ACTIVE ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT (HAART) ON EMPLOYMENT IN KHAYELITSHA

This paper examines the impact of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on labour force participation of people living with HIV/AIDS in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox Proportional Hazard Models with stratum effects for three medical clinics, and Accelerated Failure Time Models with individual specific unobserved shared effects (frailty), are estimated for transitions from inactivity to unemployment, and transitions from unemployment into employment, using a longitudinal data set. The findings of this study indicate that HAART leads to greater activity in the labour market, but there was not a strong effect on re-entry into employment.     

THE SPEED OF STRUCTURAL CONVERGENCE IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES OF NEWLY INDUSTRIALISING ECONOMIES

We seek to identify the determinants of the speed of convergence in the structures of manufacturing to their steady-state levels as developing economies become fully industrialised. Applying a two-stage sequential estimation procedure to data on three-digit manufacturing industries for 45 mostly middle-income countries, we find empirical support for the hypothesis that production efficiency is a major determinant of inter-branch output share adjustment. This finding applies to many but not all industries. One implication for latecomers is that industrial policy must aim at rapid diffusion of core technologies to facilitate the acquisition of industrial capabilities in a diversified basket of exportables.     

THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION POLICY IN AUSTRALIA: THE ROLE OF RON BANNERMAN

The 1965 legislation to curb restrictive trade practices has been widely regarded as weak. By contrast, the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) has been considered as providing the platform for a more comprehensive competition policy. This paper argues that the 1965–67 and 1971 Acts were more effective than has been commonly recognised in raising awareness about the extent of restrictive trade practices, discrediting price agreements and laying the foundations for the 1974 Act. The role of Ron Bannerman, the sole Commissioner of Trade Practices, was critical to their success. This paper uses parliamentary debates, Bannerman's published works and an interview with him undertaken in early 2005.     

THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE EMPLOYMENT OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA, 1998‐2006

This paper shows that there has been a significant decline in the employment and labour force participation of persons with disabilities in South Africa over the 1998 through 2006 period. Disability is defined based on activity limitations. Data are from the October and the General Household Surveys. The paper also deals with the possible causes of the decline. While several causes can be invoked, preliminary evidence suggests that the rise of the Disability Grant programme might be responsible for a part of the decline. Recommendations are made for future research and data collection on disability and employment.     

REMITTANCES AND AGGREGATE LABOR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM SIXTY‐SIX DEVELOPING NATIONS

Do remittances reduce labor supply in recipient economies? This paper addresses this question with aggregate level data for a panel of sixty‐six developing countries from the Middle East and Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean over the period 1985 to 2005. The results exhibit a positive and significant relationship between remittances and aggregate labor supply. The effect is clearly driven by men in each of the three regions. Three potential explanations are put forward to explain these empirical findings: (1) non‐migrating household members are likely to increase their labor supply in order to defray migration‐related expenses; (2) neighboring households increase their labor supply to help family members migrate after they become more aware of the benefits of remittances; and (3) remittances overcome credit constraints, thus generating employment.     

INTEGRATED PRODUCTION AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATIONSHIP

This paper studies the role of production mode in determining the effects of an increase in uncertainty on the choice of investment outlay. In a continuous-time model of optimal capital investment with innovative R&D under demand uncertainty, we show that investments in both capital and innovative research decrease with an increase in uncertainty, and that such investments rise with the level of primary demand. Our result sheds light on the mode of production as a source of the negative investment–uncertainty relationship.     

IMPACT OF COMMUNIST PARTIES ON THE INDIVIDUAL DECISION TO JOIN A TRADE UNION: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

This paper analyzes the impact on individual decisions to unionize of several factors: the reach of communist parties, the degree of political activism, personal attributes of workers, and industrial characteristics. The workers examined are Indian nonagricultural regular workers, using micro-data from the 2004–5 Employment and Unemployment Survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation, linked to state-level factors. A notable result is that the reach of communist parties has considerable effect on unionization probability. Moreover, it seems that the mere existence of communist parties in a state also facilitates unionization to some extent. State-level political activism and unemployment rate also influence the individual decision to join a union. The paper concludes also that a worker's gender, marital status, ethnic background, employment status, experience, occupation, sector of employment, establishment size, and type of industry remain important in the determination of union membership.