经济自由与可持续经济增长:中国的检验(1978—2008)

本文在新古典增长理论的模型框架内,诠释了中国改革开放以来经济自由与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,经济自由及其增量对我国经济增长具有重要的作用,经济越自由,越有利于经济增长率的提高。经济自由不仅直接对经济增长率产生影响,同时也通过物质资本和人力资本的途径产生间接的影响。分指标检验结果发现,贸易自由、城乡人口流动自由、金融自由和非国有化都有利于提升经济增长率,而通货膨胀、税收负担和地方政府干预则不利于经济增长率的提高。同时,基于动态面板数据的GMM估计方法表明,中国的经济自由与经济增长互为因果关系。这使我们认识到推进经济自由并不是单纯的制度建设,经济自由与经济增长两者之间可能存在一种内在耦合的演进逻辑。     

资源制约与长期经济增长--基于中国的实证分析

自然资源对我国经济增长的制约作用正日益凸显,而比较优势的动态转换是实现经济可持续增长和规避资源制约的有效途径。本文在罗默（2003）和索伦森与惠特-雅各布森（2012）分析框架的基础上,将生产过程中最为重要的3种自然资源水、土地和能源纳入模型考虑,考察自然资源约束对我国长期经济增长的影响。实证结果发现,现阶段自然资源对我国经济增长的制约作用很显著：由于能源、水和土地不能与劳动力以相同的速度增长（即在经济增长过程中存在资源约束）,使得中国经济增长率每年比没有资源约束的情况要降低5.25％。因此,在丧失资源比较优势的情况下,维持我国经济可持续增长的可行途径就是实现比较优势的动态转换。     

危机后期经济增长方式转变、指导思想与实践路径——必须依据马克思主义理论为指导克服危机

经济增长理论是社会经济增长的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论。但是发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整的建立经济增长理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国经济结构以及产业结构的调整,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践中经济结构及产业结构的优化升级。     

经济增长的动因与投资博弈均衡

经济增长是指产出的不断提高,对于增长的动因有诸多经济学解释,大致分为古典增长理论、新古典增长理论和新经济增长理论等.本文拟从资本要素流动和投资的角度切入,采用博弈分析的方法,对经济增长的深层动因进行尝试性探讨.     

关于城市土地与房地产经济相关问题的研究

在我国市场经济发展过程中,房地产经济扮演着非常重要的角色,成为带动经济发展的领先者,在我国国民经济生产总值增长中做出了很大的贡献。房地产经济发展始终与城市土地存在着非常密切的内在关系,通过合理规划,科学使用城市土地,不仅能够有效稳定房地产经济,有效避免出现房地产经济泡沫,还能进一步提升人民的物质生活水平。在我国综合国力...     

贸易、环境污染与经济增长——基于东北老工业基地振兴的一个内生经济增长模型

老工业基地衰落是一个世界性问题.分析其共性,发现是资源市场配置的必然结果.本文通过构建一个内生经济增长模型,探讨了在老工业基地发展中,国际贸易、环境质量与经济增长三者的内在关系以及相互作用的动力机制.通过对模型的竞争性市场均衡分析,给出了平衡增长路径的经济增长率,并系统地分析了在环境污染进入效用函数的情形下长期经济增长的内在机理.通过对最优增长路径进行比较分析,讨论了贸易对环境质量、经济增长的影响,污染外部性对长期经济增长的约束等.最后给出了模型的综合结论及其现实涵义.     

土地制度与中国发展模式

土地在中国经济奇迹创造中扮演的重要角色越来越引起高度关注,但是,现有基于政府特殊性的研究忽视了土地的重要性,影响了对中国发展模式的理解和解释力。本文刻画了政府通过独特土地制度安排主导发展权的"以地谋发展"模式的特征和典型化事实,构建了土地作用于结构转变和经济增长的机制,通过建立一个纳入土地要素的经济增长计量模型,利用全国地级市样本数据检验了土地经由工业化和城市化的结构转变和通过资本形成对经济增长的影响,分析了结构转变不同阶段的土地制度安排及其变迁影响工业化和城市化的程度和方式。需要说明的是,本文研究旨在描述和解释中国改革时期形成的推动快速结构转变和高增长的"以地谋发展"的事实和逻辑,随着经济发展阶段转换和内外环境变化,土地的功能和"以地谋发展"模式的风险和问题凸显,需要进行进一步的变革。     

环境规制对碳绩效影响的门槛效应分析

环境规制解决“温室效应”的关键在于其能否实现经济增长和碳减排之间的共赢。因此,寻求一条提升碳绩效的持续发展道路是当前政府环境规制之要务。本文从竞争均衡模型的构建深入探讨环境规制对碳绩效的作用效应,证实了环境规制与碳绩效之间呈现广义上的U型曲线关系。在此基础上,通过建立门槛面板回归模型实证检验了中国2000～2014年30个省市的环境规制对碳绩效的门槛效应,基于区域异质性假定证实了环境规制与碳绩效的双门槛效应及最优规制水平的存在,以期为地方政府环境规制的正确执行提供必要的参考依据。     

贸易资本化和经济增长

本文将贸易纳入新古典增长模型来分析国际贸易对经济增长的影响问题.分析表明,贸易对经济增长的动态影响取决于贸易对贸易国的资本化作用,当贸易推动了该国资本化进程时,贸易就提高该国人均资本、人均产出以及人均消赍,反之,贸易就可能对经济增长、消费和资本积累起消极作用.     

土地要素流动与二元经济结构转换：基于国情对刘易斯二元经济模型的修正

回顾文献,概括出了对二元经济理论进行创新的几个主要方向。在这些创新方向的启示下,考虑了由于现行土地制度使得二元结构被不断强化的特殊国情,借鉴和运用新古典经济学的分析技术,构建一个包含了土地要素流动的二元经济模型,并借此模型为我国的二元经济结构转换给出了简单的政策启示。     

转型期我国被征地农民的可持续生计问题探讨

近年来,我国加快由传统农业社会向现代工业社会的转型,经济快速增长,工业化和城市化进程加速推进。大量的非农建设项目对土地的需求量持续增长,不可避免地产生了被征地农民。本文论述了转型期我国被征地农民产生的动因及其可持续生计问题。提出了符合统筹城乡经济社会发展、符合构建和谐社会原则、符合着力解决民生问题这一目的的建议,为被征地农民完善就业政策、提供公共财政的资金支持、建立指向性较强的社会保障制度,以解决其可持续生计问题。     

Land use Controls: Can Landowners Force Governmental Bodies to Pay?

A governmental body has the right to regulate owners' use of their land by exercising police powers. However, when such regulation substantially deprives an owner of the use of land, the owner can argue that a taking has occurred. Traditionally, a landowner could seek a declaration that the governmental regulation was unconstitutional and should be enjoined. At times an alternative remedy available to the landowner has been to sue for monetary damages. This latter action is called inverse or reverse condemnation.
This article examines two recent United States Supreme Court cases that address whether or not an inverse condemnation action is a permissible means by which a landowner can challenge the excessive nature of a zoning regulation. Although these cases have not directly answered this question, this article concludes that such a remedy would be beneficial and should be allowed.     

我国城镇建设有关土地制度创新研究

目前我国土地管理中存在着土地市场不完善．国土基金管理不到位等问题。应完善我国土地市场和加强国土基金使用管理。应加快土地资源的市场配置．完善国有土地有偿使用制度．推进国有土地使用权的招标、拍卖和挂牌出让。建立土地收购储备制度．以促进土地的可持续利用。完善城镇土地的出租制．采取长租、短租或临时出租等方式，以保证土地的长期收益。建立集体土地流转制度。成立国土基金专户．国土基金专款专用．收支两条线．实行国土基金的计划管理制度和监管制度。     

Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?

Since the seminal works of Malthus and Boserup, scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people. Today these concerns are particularly relevant to Africa, with its rapid population growth, very small farms, and chronic food insecurity. In this paper we examine adaptation to falling land-labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways: intensifying agricultural production, diversifying out of agriculture, and reducing fertility rates. Using cross-country data and drawing upon the existing literature, we reach three conclusions. First, population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation, indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth. Second, there is little evidence of successful non-farm diversification in response to land pressures in Africa from domestic or international income sources. Third, rural Africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families, but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi-sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region.     

土地财政、产业结构演变与税收超常规增长——中国“税收增长之谜”的一个分析视角

本文考察了最近10多年来我国税收增长速度一直显著高于GDP增长速度的现象。特别从地方政府土地财政激励与产业结构演变的角度考察了当前中国特定体制下地方政府做大财政资源产业的经济与政治激励。基于1998-2003年中国地级城市面板数据．我们实证考察了地方政府协议土地出让对财政占GDP比例的当期和滞后影响。最后．本文从土地财政角度对税收增长可持续性进行了初步评估。     

Land constraints and agricultural intensification in Ethiopia: A village-level analysis of high-potential areas

Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of inform two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and higher gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.     

苏南经济发展中的土地资源约束探讨

苏南经济快速发展的背后是土地资源的日渐减少,土地资源先天条件不优越加上粗放浪费的使用模式使苏南较早地面临经济发展的资源瓶颈.土地资源趋紧带来了区域粮食安全的问题;导致了苏南商务成本的加大,低成本优势逐渐丧失;土地资源约束直接威胁到了全区的可持续发展.针对以上问题,文章通过比照国际上两种不同发展模式,从中得出有益的启示:今后苏南应尽快转变经济发展模式,通过技术创新,注重开发、培植新技术,走出低端竞争的误区.     

供给侧改革背景下我国城市建设用地最优规模分析

本文基于边际等值原理,综合城市经济效益、社会效益、环境效益以及建设效益,构建多因子城市建设用地最优规模决策模型,并结合我国城市建设用地供给实际进行分析。结果显示：2001～2015年,我国城市发展经历了从建设用地短缺到最优及至过剩的过程,对建设用地增长的强依赖逐渐转变为弱依赖。城市建设用地增长与边际建设效益弱相关;与边际经济效益之间呈库兹涅茨倒U型曲线关系;与边际社会效益呈正相关、边际环境效益呈负相关。目前我国城市建设用地已经达到最优规模,其中建设用地供给与经济发展失调,是导致净效益下降的主要动因。     

Is Real Estate Becoming Important Again? A Neo‐Ricardian Model of Land Rent

Classical economists believed that land rent as a share of total income would increase with economic growth. This belief was important to many 19th and 20th century critiques of capitalism. Land rents as a share of national income apparently declined for most of the 20th century, but increased during the 1990s. In this paper, we develop a model of the classical theory of land rent that allows rent to increase or decrease as a share of national income, depending on several parameters. It seems likely that the long decline in land rent is over and that land rent in the future will slowly increase as a share of national income.     

Scarcity amidst abundance? Reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is typically regarded as land abundant, and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland (PAC) have largely affirmed this perception. Such efforts, however, have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion. This paper re-estimates PAC for Africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions, using recent geospatial data. Existing PAC estimates for Africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access, and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources. The region’s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries, many of which are fragile states. Between one-half and two-thirds of the region’s surplus land is currently under forest cover; conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs. Most of the continent’s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets, limiting their economic attractiveness. In the long run, improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion. In the short to medium term, however, the potential for profitable smallholder-based cropland expansion in most African countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be.