技能偏向型技术进步、教育—工作匹配与工资差异：基于搜寻匹配模型的理论推演

现有的对工资差异的经济学研究多集中于发展经济学范式,尤其是在高等教育扩展的背景下,多数文献都从高技能劳动力供给所产生的收入效应和替代效应来分析工资差异的长期演化。但仅仅从宏观层面上考虑高技能劳动力供给对工资差异的影响并不具有微观基础,没有考虑不同类型劳动力所从事工作的具体特征如何作用于劳动力的决策。因此,从传统的搜寻-匹配理论出发,以此来分析高技能劳动力的供给如何影响工资差异演化的方向。与此同时,高技能劳动力供给所决定的技能偏向型的技术进步也被内嵌进去。研究发现,在随机匹配下的劳动力市场约束中,高技能劳动力的供给存在一个阈值,当高技能劳动力的供给低于此阈值时,工资差异的程度随着高技能劳动力供给的增加而减小;当高于此阈值时,工资差异程度随着高技能劳动力的增加而加剧。     

农民工市民化的红利效应与中国经济增长的可持续性——基于动态CGE的模拟分析

文章基于可计算一般均衡模型(CHINAGEM)并考虑了农民工市民化的“职业依赖”特征,在多元劳动力转移矩阵中引入了农民工和城市非熟练劳动力的流动机制,设置了分阶段农民工市民化模拟场景,运用实际与拟合数据评估其动态经济效应.结果表明:城市非熟练劳动力和农民工“替代效应”引致的劳动力市场供给结构的变化,直接改善了劳动力供给的质量,并通过不同技能劳动力相对工资的变动促进了城市非熟练劳动力向熟练劳动力的升级,实现了整个就业市场的结构优化;在供给方面,劳动力市场的变化带动了不同行业的资本存量积累,从而推动了产业结构向制造业和服务业的转型;在需求方面,国民收入的改善促进了长期消费增长,而劳动力要素成本的整体下降则提升了出口规模.因此,农民工的市民化给中国经济增长带来了长期的红利.     

跨国公司离岸服务的工资效应研究

文章运用理论模型研究基于成本节约和技术进步动因的跨国公司离岸服务如何通过生产力效应、相对价格效应和劳动力供给效应三条渠道影响母国和东道国劳动力的工资水平。文章认为不同类型的离岸服务对母国和东道国不同技能水平劳动力的工资水平会产生不同的影响。     

劳动力市场歧视与高校扩招的影响--基于信号博弈模型的结构估计

本文建立了一个信号博弈模型,在该模型框架下实证研究了大学教育的人力资本积累效应对大学生收入溢价的贡献以及高校扩招对大学生非大学生收入差距的影响.基于模型的结构估计(structural estimation)证明该模型能很好地拟合大学生和非大学生的工资分布.模型的模拟结果表明:(1)大学教育的人力资本积累效应约能解释大学生工资溢价的72%;(2)与基于劳动力供给角度的分析不同,高校扩招可能通过劳动力市场歧视加剧大学生非大学生的收入差距.     

房地产税的宏观经济效应与分配效应研究

本文在一个引入房地产和居民抵押贷款约束的异质性个体世代交替模型中,加入消费税、资本所得税和劳动所得税以匹配中国的现实税制结构,并依据中国数据对模型参数进行了校准。在此基础上引入房地产税,研究房地产税的税率和免征额调整以及从消费税向房地产税的税制结构转换对宏观经济、收入和财富分配的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下：第一,普遍征收房地产税对消费同时存在收入效应和替代效应,最终影响要看两种效应的相对强弱;总产出则随着房地产税率的提高呈倒U型变化,而房地产和总财富分配差距则随着房地产税率的提高而扩大。第二,合理的免征额设置是实现房地产税改善收入和财富分配功能的关键。第三,在合理设置免征额基础上,实行税制结构转换可以更好地发挥房地产税改善收入分配的作用,同时也可以进一步促进消费。本文实现了在统一的理论框架内,同时研究房地产税的宏观经济与分配效应,有效解决了基于微观调查数据的静态模拟所存在的动态不一致问题,为房地产税改革可能产生的影响和税制设计提供了政策参考。     

劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究

在人口老龄化和高等教育大众化背景下,我国劳动力供给正发生深刻变化,并将对制造业结构优化产生深远影响.劳动力供给变化包括劳动力供给数量、质量与结构变化等多重维度;制造业结构优化主要表现为制造业结构高度化与合理化.文章以1992-2013年省级面板数据为样本,从劳动力供给数量、质量与结构的综合视角来探讨劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响效应.结果显示:一是劳动力供给数量增加有利于促进制造业结构合理化,但对制造业结构高度化影响不显著;二是劳动力供给质量提高显著提升了制造业结构合理化水平,却不利于制造业高度化发展;三是反映劳动力供给结构的老年、少儿抚养比上升显著抑制了制造业结构合理化与高度化发展,且老年抚养比的抑制作用明显大于少儿抚养比.此外,文章还通过更换样本与方法进行了稳健性检验,检验结果基本支持了文章上述的研究结论.因此,我们建议既要通过调整与优化人口政策,积极应对人口老龄化与劳动力供给数量下降对制造业结构优化的负向冲击;又要着力培养为产业发展所需的各层各类人才,尤其是高层次创新型人才,进而以创新驱动制造业结构优化.     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

人工智能对我国劳动力市场的影响——基于人口老龄化的分析

基于中国2005—2016年的省级面板数据,在分析人工智能以及人口老龄化影响劳动力市场的理论机制基础之上,构建动态面板模型实证分析了人工智能对我国劳动力市场的影响。结果发现：人工智能的发展对高、低技能劳动力就业有着显著的不利影响,人口老龄化缓解了人工智能对高技能劳动力的替代效应;但是对低技能劳动力的替代效应的影响并不显著;人工智能技术进步加剧了劳动力市场上的收入不平等的现象,而老龄化程度的加深则深化这一影响;当以老龄化为门槛变量的时候,人工智能对劳动力市场的影响有着显著的门槛效应。     

产业数智化与家庭消费升级

本文将省际数据与微观家庭面板数据进行匹配，基于OLS模型分析产业数智化对家庭消费升级的影响及机制。研究发现，产业数智化对家庭消费升级具有促进作用；产业数智化通过劳动力收入效应、产品质量效应和供需匹配效应影响家庭消费升级；产业数智化通过收入效应对中高技能劳动力家庭消费升级具有显著的促进作用；产业智化对东部地区家庭消费升级有显著促进作用；产业数智化对城镇居民家庭消费升级的促进作用大于农村居民；家庭互联网使用程度能够帮助产业数智化发挥供需匹配效应促进家庭消费升级，但对于低技能劳动力家庭存在一定门槛。本文为解决供给约束堵点，打通生产、分配、流通、消费各环节提供了理论支撑与有益启示。     

劳动力市场歧视与高校扩招的影响——基于信号博弈模型的结构估计

本文建立了一个信号博弈模型,在该模型框架下实证研究了大学教育的人力资本积累效应对大学生收入溢价的贡献以及高校扩招对大学生-非大学生收入差距的影响。基于模型的结构估计（structural estimation）证明该模型能很好地拟合大学生和非大学生的工资分布。模型的模拟结果表明：（1）大学教育的人力资本积累效应约能解释大学生工资溢价的72％;（2）与基于劳动力供给角度的分析不同,高校扩招可能通过劳动力市场歧视加剧大学生一非大学生的收入差距。     

效率与公平兼顾的最优所得税:理论框架及最优税率估计

最优所得税主要探讨税收如何兼顾公平与效率问题,以及给定公平偏好程度下,如何确定最优边际税率水平。即使在崇尚罗尔斯社会福利函数的社会里,政府同时兼顾再分配和财政收入目标的基础上,只要略加考虑税收对劳动供给的效应,哪怕是微弱的考虑和兼顾,最高边际税率都不会达到100%。而且,借鉴斯特恩最优线性所得税模型及美国个人所得税制度,估计我国现行个人所得税最高边际税率还可以适当降低到36%左右。     

Tuition Fees and the Dual Income Tax: The Optimality of the Nordic Income Tax System Reconsidered

Abstract. We examine the optimal tax and education policy in the case of a dual income tax. Incorporating an educational sector and endogenous capital taxation, we show that the results in Nielsen and Sørensen's study are vulnerable with respect to assumptions on the elasticity of unskilled labor supply. Tax progressivity results residually, whereas educational policy guarantees an optimal tax wedge on, but not necessarily efficiency in, educational investment. The less elastic are the unobservable educational investment and skilled labor (the latter relative to unskilled labor supply), and the more educational policy cares about the skilled labor supply, the more progressive the tax system will be. Education will be subsidized on a net basis if the complementarity effect on the skilled labor supply is strong and important; however, there is also an offsetting substitutability effect of the unskilled labor supply at play.     

Household Taxation, Income Splitting and Labor Supply Incentives - A Microsimulation Study for Germany

We analyze potential labor supply effects of a shift from thecurrent German system of joint taxation of married couples toa system of limited real income splitting on the basis of aneconometric household labor supply model embedded in a tax benefitmodel. Our simulation results show relatively small labor supplyeffects of a shift from the current system to one of limitedreal income splitting system. In the benchmark scenario of ashift to separate taxation labor supply of wives would increasesubstantially in west Germany, while a significant number ofhusbands would drop out of the labor force. (JEL H31, H24, J22)     

New evidence on taxes and portfolio choice

Identifying the effect of differential taxation on portfolio allocation requires exogenous variation in marginal tax rates. Marginal tax rates vary with income, but income surely affects portfolio choice directly. In systems of individual taxation – like Canada's – couples with the same household income can face different effective tax rates on capital income when labor income is distributed differently within households. Using this source of variation we find portfolio responses to taxation among more affluent households. The estimated effects are statistically significant but economically modest. In a “placebo” test, using data from the U.S. (which has joint taxation), we find no effect of the intra-household distribution of labor income on portfolios.     

Labor supply,uncertainty, and efficient taxation

We analyze the structure of an optimal linear income tax when workers are uncertain about their wages at the time they choose their labor supplies. Background for the normative analysis is provided by an outline of the positive theory of wage taxation and labor supply under uncertainty. It is then shown that given imperfect information about wages, lump-sum taxation is not necessarily efficient. Because a wage tax reduces the riskiness of wage income, some combination of a lump-sum tax and a wage tax generally will minimize excess burden.     

Asymptotic Marginal Tax Rate of Individual Income Tax in China

This paper examines the asymptotic marginal rate of individual income tax which maximizes China's social welfare through numerical simulation based on the elasticity of China's labor supply, income distribution and the social objectives of redistribution in accordance with the optimal direct taxation theory. Taking advantage of the optimal direct taxation model with consideration of the income effect, it comes to the conclusion that combined with China's reality, the asymptotic marginal rate of individual labor income tax in China should be between 35% and 40%.     

Labor or consumption taxes? An application with a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents

This study analyzes the effects of tax reform that shifts tax burden from labor to consumption. In this context, I also deal with the issue of progressivity. Even though this kind of tax policy change has recently gained popularity, its positive effects are debatable while the offsetting effect of a consumption tax on labor supply makes the net output change rather ambiguous. I examine these effects using a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The model is calibrated to fit certain characteristics of the Finnish economy. In addition to output and employment effects, I study the tax reform's effect on income and wealth distribution. First, I find that eliminating progressivity in labor taxation increases output via increase in capital accumulation that comes, however, in expense of slightly more inequality. Then, tax reform that replaces progressive labor taxes with a flat-rate consumption tax leads to a significant rise in capital accumulation, a negligible change in labor supply and gross labor income distribution, but a relatively considerable increase in wealth concentration.     

Optimal Taxation with a Trade-off Between Income and Children

This paper explores the implications of endogenous fertility for optimal redistributive taxation in the presence of a trade-off between labour income and children. The labour supply is a decreasing function of the desired quantity and quality of children. Since children enter into the parent's budget constraint in a nonlinear form, their shadow prices are directly distorted by the income tax rate. It is shown that the substitution effects of the income tax rate on the quantity and quality of children cannot be signed uniquely although the effect on labour supply is negative. The aggregate substitution effect of the income tax rate on the quantity of children plays an important role in the determination of the signs of the income tax and child subsidy rates at a Rawlsian or Benthamite social welfare optimum.
JEL Classification Numbers: H21, J13, J22     

A Case Against Zero Capital-Income Taxation

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the optimal level of capital income taxation in light of stochastic endogenous economic growth. Although endogenous human capital is incorporated into our model, we restrict our investigation to the issue of optimal physical capital income tax; and the labor supply is also endogenously determined. This paper proves that the optimal capital income tax should be zero provided exogenous government expenditure on production; however, capital income should be taxed if we consider endogenous government consumption.     

The effects of joint taxation of married couples on labor supply and non-wage income

The United States changed its tax treatment of married couples in 1948, from a system in which each spouse paid taxes on his or her own income to a system in which a married couple is taxed as a unit. The switch from separate to joint taxation changed incentives for labor supply and asset ownership. This paper investigates the effects of the conversion to joint taxation, taking advantage of a natural experiment created by cross-state variation in property laws. Married individuals in states with community property laws had always been taxed as if each spouse had earned half of the couple's income, and thus were unaffected by the 1948 legal change. Comparing the behavior of highly-educated taxpayers in affected and unaffected states indicates that the tax change is associated with a decline of approximately 2 percentage points in the employment rate of married women, consistent with the higher first-dollar tax rates they faced after 1948. Women married to self-employed men were also less likely to have non-wage income after 1948, reflecting pre-1948 allocation of family assets to wives for tax purposes. The effects of joint taxation on married men's labor force participation and non-wage income holding are generally not statistically significant.