新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题。针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,本文建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析方法进行实证研究。结果显示:在核准制下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率。总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限。     

新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题.针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,本文建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析方法进行实证研究.结果显示:在核准制下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率.总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限.     

新股发行体制改革及其对市场的影响

研究新股发行体制的变迁,探讨本次新股发行体制改革对市场的影响,并进行实证分析。通过实证发现,本次新政改革只是部分解决了主板新股定价高,中小板和创业板高价发行状况没有有效改变,首日涨幅整体有所回落,但是资金申购效率提高,新股申购收益明显上升,可能会进一步助涨打新投机。建议取消对一级市场发行价格的限制,促进投资人树立价值投资理念,并进一步强化信息披露和发行定价过程的监管,推动资源向优质企业配置。     

关于新股发行定价效率研究综述

新股发行定价效率关系到资本市场资源配置的有效性,对于股票市场的稳定运行,扩大资本市场的规模,促进资本市场的健康发展均具有极其重要的作用。本文主要从IPO抑价理论、新股发行定价效率与一级发行市场、二级运行市场的关系三方面出发,对新股发行定价效率的研究进行概括与汇总,以对新股发行定价效率的研究有一定的认识与了解。     

新股发行价格确定的理论方法探析

<正>众多学者基于我国特有的制度和市场背景对于我国长期居高不下的IPO上市首日高抑价现象提出了各种观点。新股发行定价的理论及方法探讨在我国已逐步兴起,但是,由于中国证券市场与发达国家相比历史较短,研究文献较少,系统性不强。国内关于公司的新股发行定价的文献较少,尤其针对本文所涉及的最新发行体制改革后的新股定价研究,尚无其他专门性的文献可资参考。     

新股发行机制：沿革、问题与建议

温家宝总理在全国金融工作会议上提出要深化新股发行制度市场化改革,抓紧完善发行、退市和上市公司分红制度。2012年1月8日,中国证监会主席郭树清在全国证券期货监管工作会议中提出：“继续深化新股发行改革,完善新股价格形成机制,改革股票承销办法。”郭树清表示,要完善新股价格形成机制,改革股票承销办法,使新股定价与发行人基本面密切关联。完善预先披露和发行审核信息公开制度,落实和强化保荐机构、律师和会计师事务所等中介机构的责任。     

我国A股市场新股发行定价效率比较研究

新股发行定价是股票发行市场的核心环节,定价是否合理将直接影响到股票市场的资源配置效率。本文的研究目的在于通过定性与定量相结合的方式,来客观描述我国A股市场首次公开发行定价效率问题,比较研究不同时期下新股发行的定价效率。本文包括五个部分:第一部分是引言,介绍了本文的研究背景及目的。第二部分对三个阶段新股发行定价效率分析。第三部分介绍了研究方法及样本数据来源。第四部分为运用第三部分的数据进行实证分析。第五部分为本文的结论部分,根据第四部分的实证分析结果提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国股票市场新股发行高抑价率的实证分析

以上海股票市场1998—2001年发行并且上市的新股为样本，通过对中国股票市场上新股抑价程度进行统计，我们发现我国股票市场新股发行抑价率远高于其他国家。而中国股票市场的投机行为是其根源。因而抑制投机是解决高抑价率的根本措施。     

股价信息、价格运动特征与资源配置效率

行为金融学的研究表明,股价不仅受到公司基本价值有关信息的影响,而且还受到市场公共信息的影响。通过研究股票价格运动特征可以有效地判断股价所包含的信息特征,解释股票市场的资源配置效率状况以及市场发育程度。现阶段我国股价还不能传递足够多的企业特定信息,引导资源配置的信号功能较弱,这一结论和对资源配置效率的实证结果相吻合,即股市对金融资源的低效配置问题还相当突出。     

分析师跟踪和新上市公司股价表现研究

基于2006年至2008年6月之间新上市公司数据,考量分析师跟踪和新上市公司股价表现,结果表明,分析师对公司的跟踪越多,说明分析师看好该公司,对某公司进行跟踪的分析师数量传递了分析师对公司价值未来的预期。利用 Fama-Frcnch 三因素模型的截距项表征新上市公司超额收益,发现超额分析师跟踪越多的公司其新股超额收益越大。     

Earnings Metrics,Information Processing,and Price Efficiency in Laboratory Markets

An enduring issue in financial reporting is whether and how salient summary measures of firm performance (“earnings metrics”) affect market price efficiency. In laboratory markets, we test the effects of salient earnings metrics, which vary in how they combine persistent and transitory elements, on investor information search, beliefs about value, offers to trade, and market price efficiency. We find that including transitory elements in salient earnings metrics causes traders to search unnecessarily for further information about these elements and to overestimate their effect on fundamental value relative to a rational benchmark. In contrast, separately displaying persistent elements in earnings increases the accuracy of traders’ value estimates. Prices generally reflect traders’ beliefs about value, and prices are most efficient when transitory elements are excluded from earnings metrics entirely. Our study contributes to research on salience effects in financial reporting by showing that including transitory elements in salient earnings metrics causes inefficient information search and biased beliefs about value that can aggregate to affect market prices. We also contribute to research in experimental markets by showing that redundant disclosure is not always beneficial; redundant disclosure of transitory earnings elements, in particular, appears to have negative consequences for investor behavior and market efficiency.     

承销商托市与新股折价

引言新股首次公开发行(initial public offerings,IPOs)的高初始收益率(即上市首日交易价格高于发行价格)现象自20世纪70年代以来一直是财务学界研究的一个重要领域。我国的证券市场长期以来也一直续演着“新股不败”的神话，每一次新股发行往往伴随着巨额的申购资金和上市后的惊人涨幅。……     

Price discovery for cross-listed firms with foreign IPOs

We investigate the inter-market return and volatility linkages for an atypical case of firms with foreign IPOs that subsequently cross-listed in their domestic market. In particular, our data set consists of a unique sample of 29 Israeli firms that went public in the US (host market) and then cross-listed in the Israeli market (home market). To estimate the spillover effects, we employ bivariate GARCH models, assuming both constant and dynamic conditional correlation specifications. At the aggregate market level, we find unidirectional mean and volatility spillovers from the US to the Israeli market. For the portfolios of Israeli cross-listed stocks, we report significant spillovers, at both the mean and volatility levels, from the underlying stocks in the Israeli market to their American Depository Receipts (ADRs) but not vice versa. Thus, the home market dominates the host market in the price discovery process in this atypical international cross-listing case, providing new evidence in support of the home bias hypothesis. We also find that external shocks originating from the Middle East peace process have no impact on the conditional correlation between the two markets but external shocks originating from the world and regional markets impact the conditional correlation positively.     

论核准制下的新股竞价发行

我国新股发行已经由审批制转向核准制，核准制带来的一项主要变化是新股发行与定价方式的市场化，而竞价发行将成为核准制下新股发行与定价的主要方式之一。     

The Rationality and Efficiency of Stock Price Relative to Money Announcement Information

Recent studies find that stock price reacts only to unanticipated changes in the money supply. These studies assume a joint hypothesis of rationality and efficiency in their tests. This paper formulates a model in which stock price depends both upon anticipated and unanticipated money supply forecasts. From this model, an econometric model that separates the hypotheses of rationality and efficiency is estimated. The results show that investors rationally incorporate forecasts of the weekly current money announcement into stock price during the pre-October 6, 1979, sample period. However, efficiency with respect to money information cannot be corroborated in this period. Cross-equation restrictions implied by rationality are rejected during the post-October 6, 1979, period. In this period, efficiency again cannot be corroborated. Alternative money prediction specifications indicate the robustness of these results.     

Indexing and Stock Price Efficiency

Indexing has experienced substantial growth over the last two decades because it is an effective way of holding a diversified portfolio while minimizing trading costs and taxes. In this article, we focus on one negative externality of indexing: the effect on the efficiency of stock prices. Based on a sample of large and liquid US stocks, we find that greater indexing leads to less efficient stock prices, as indicated by stronger post‐earnings‐announcement drift and greater deviations of stock prices from the random walk. We conjecture that reduced incentives for information acquisition and arbitrage induced by indexing and passive trading are probably the main causes for degradation in price efficiency.     

信息不对称、过度自信与股价变动

信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。     

Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility

We examine the relation between futures price volatility and trading demand by type of trader in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500-stock index futures market. We find that volatility covaries negatively with signed speculative demand shocks but is positively related to signed hedging demand shocks. No significant relation between volatility and demand shocks for small traders is found. Our results suggest that changes in positions of large hedgers destabilize the market, whereas changes in positions of large speculators stabilize volatility. Consistent with models with asymmetrically informed traders, we find that large speculators are likely to possess superior forecasting ability, large hedgers behave like positive feedback traders, and small traders are liquidity traders.