Principles of network development and evolution: an experimental study

This paper reports on an experimental investigation of the evolution of networks and the individual decision-making processes that guide it. Inasmuch as there is no history of experimental work on network formation, part of the paper is devoted to the formulation of problems that can be examined experimentally. The results are that networks, composed of decentralized decision makers, are capable of overcoming complex coordination and learning problems and converge to stationary configurations. While stationarity is frequently observed, such an achievement is not guaranteed, and when it does not occur, significant and persistent inefficiencies can result. The models of equilibration based on the principle of Nash equilibrium are more reliable than models based on the alternative principles of efficiency seeking or focalness of the network configuration. However, individual decision making within networks is not in accordance with the simple decision rule of Nash best response. Instead, we observe complicated strategies that appear to trade short-term profits in order to signal to and teach other agents the strategies required for long-term profit maximization.     

从经济理性到有限理性:经济学研究理性假设的演变

"经济理性"是经济学的传统研究假设,却因背离现实而受到质疑.基于行为人稀缺的心理资源和系统固有的不确定性而产生的"有限理性"正逐步取代"经济理性"成为经济学研究的理性假设.不同的理性观点可以从决策的视角得到系统地解释和比较.并且,随着理性假设的演变,经济行为的决策标准也相应从单一静态最优向多元动态平衡转变.     

基于行为决策理论的投资决策研究：发展及实践意义

以“理性人”假设为基础的传统财务决策理论将决策者独立于投资决策过程之外，认为决策者完全能够依据理性决策模型做出最优的决策，但现实并非如此。本文对行为决策理论中关于投资决策的研究文献进行了梳理，揭示了决策者的行为特征会影响到投资决策及投资回报率的设定，展望了行为决策理论在我国的发展前景及实践意义。     

Improving public health emergency preparedness through enhanced decision-making environments: A simulation and survey based evaluation

Public health emergency preparedness officials use several modes of education and training programs to improve their response capability, including tabletop exercises. Tabletop exercises allow participants to role-play during a health emergency in an experiential practice environment and evaluate performance using existing benchmarks. Although tabletop exercises are routinely used in public health to identify gaps in emergency planning, quantitative measures of the impact of participating in an exercise are less common. To this end, we have designed a state-of-the-art simulation-driven hybrid tabletop exercise which is informed by local leadership interests and options, and tied into a research platform that enables rigorous assessment and improvements. The exercise and assessment were used by the state of Arizona during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak. The simulation allows participants to respond to a hypothetical pandemic influenza scenario and make iterative policy decisions in a group setting. The exercise provided a valuable forum reviewing and assessing emergency plans for schools to prepare for, respond to, and recover from an influenza pandemic. After the exercise, participants reported a significantly increased level of confidence in performing core public health functional capabilities around the five main topic areas.     

Dynamics of social factors in technological substitutions

Diffusion models of technological innovations are often based on an epidemic structure which has a good fit to historical data but whose communication assumptions lack explanatory power. They assume a simplified decision process, uniform decision criteria across adopters categories, and a fully interconnected social structure. The objective of this paper is to show that the dynamics of social factors during technological substitutions have significant effects on substitution patterns. The success of a paradigmatic shift is not only a function of technological characteristics but also depends on change agents and many social dynamics. Such complexity requires analysis at several levels of granularity. We start with cognitive processes at the individual level using concepts from cognitive psychology and decision making under uncertainty and then move to interpersonal communications at the aggregate social level. We show that population heterogeneity generates different decision criteria and a social topology which greatly affect perceptions and the formation of expectations. The structure of interpersonal networks also explains how the relevance and credibility of information impact the critical mass dynamics of technology adoption. A more complete model accounting for social interactions provides a useful framework for understanding complex substitution patterns and reducing the risk of misreading the market.     

服务型企业国际市场进入模式及其影响因素探析

服务型企业国际市场进入模式选择是企业国际化战略的核心组成部分。服务型企业经营的内部环境因素和外部环境因素对企业选择国际市场进入模式有很大影响。通过企业国际市场进入模式决策的理论分析模型，我国服务型企业开拓国际市场要考虑诸多影响因素，同时要采取有针对性的有效策略和灵活的进入模式。     

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

作业成本法在我国企业产品决策中的运用

作业成本法相对于传统的成本计算方法，由于成本信息的准确性较高，因此，它在企业产品决策中得到了积极的运用。本文从四个方面分析了作业成本法在我国企业产品决策中的运用。     

A systematic quantitative backcasting on low-carbon society policy in case of Kyoto city

In order to realize a low-carbon society (LCS), it is necessary to formulate a comprehensive policy consisting of a large number of “options” (i.e., policies as well as technical and behavioral measures). Based on the concept of backcasting, this paper proposes a methodology and a model, called the backcasting model (BCM), that organizes a system of various LCS options and projects their detailed schedule toward a given target year. The methodology and model mainly focus on describing a complex system of LCS options and the consistency of their schedule. Other aspects such as the costs of LCS measures, stock dynamics of technologies, and effects of economic instruments are not explicitly considered. To permit quantitative treatment of various types of options, they are classified into several categories. The BCM calculates the schedule of the options under given quantitative information on the options and relationships between them. The methodology and model were applied to Kyoto City as an example. First, a quantitative snapshot of socioeconomic status and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was described. In the snapshot, a 45% reduction of GHG emissions compared with 1990 was achieved with moderate economic growth. The BCM was applied to about 130 options shown in an action plan of the Kyoto Municipal Government, and a schedule of the options was calculated. This methodology treats wide-ranging and complex low-carbon options in a quantitative and consistent manner and supports the policymaking process toward the realization of a low-carbon society.     

在利益博弈中寻求平衡:地方政府社会基本养老保障制度决策逻辑分析

我国社会基本养老保障制度区域政策差异显著,其政策形成是由地方政府主导并与中央政府、企业和民众利益博弈决策。各博弈主体均有不同利益诉求,分别表现为绩效考核、公共财政、经济发展与民生诉求,均对社会基本养老保障供给产生不同性质与大小作用力,而地方政府决策逻辑是在与各主体利益博弈基础上寻求平衡决策。在假设经济发展与民生诉求为固有矛盾前提下,现阶段地方决策是在公共财政与民生诉求间平衡,但当绩效考核与公共财政因素变化,或各利益诉求均有利于或均不利于社会基本养老保障提供的极端情况时,地方政府会有不同决策选择。     

Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system

This paper presents a new methodology to build internal business scenarios from the data gathered by some key performance indicators (KPIs) defined within a performance measurement system. The application of the principal components analysis technique leads to the identification of latent relationships between KPIs that underlies some important business aspects. Further, this methodology allows to represent not only the temporal evolution of the organisation as a function of these business aspects but also the definition and determination of internal business scenarios, being therefore the source of meaningful managerial information. At the end of the paper, results of a practical application are presented and discussed, as well as their importance for the organisation from a decision making point of view.     

Individual versus group behavior and the role of the decision making procedure in gift-exchange experiments

We test for behavioral differences between groups and individuals in gift-exchange experiments. Related studies in economics establish group behavior as often closer to the standard game-theoretic equilibrium under the assumptions of rationality and selfishness. We show that this result may depend crucially on the decision making procedure within groups and the nature of the task. A novel experimental decision making protocol opens the black box of group decision making and allows tracking important features of the group interaction process. We are also able to show that acting in a group may shift initial individual choices.

组织学习影响科技型企业连续并购决策的实证分析

并购是科技型企业的重要成长方式,并购中的组织学习对科技型企业提高并购绩效至关重要。利用生存回归方法,分析科技型企业并购经验惯例和并购绩效反馈对连续并购决策的影响,探究并购中组织学习机制。研究结果显示,并购次数多、并购绩效反馈好,则企业作出连续并购决策的概率大,好的并购绩效反馈会强化并购次数对连续并购决策的影响。     

略论企业间基本品牌关系与战略决策模式

从战略管理的角度,全面分析企业间品牌竞争的外部环境和企业间的相互关系,并提出企业品牌战略管理的基本框架和基本决策模式,可使企业的品牌战略成为一个完整的体系。