Static versus dynamic hedges: an empirical comparison for barrier options

We conduct an empirical comparison of static versus dynamic hedges of barrier options. Using more than five years of data, we compare a number of static hedges from the literature with dynamic hedges based on the local volatility model. The main result is that the variability of profit-and-loss distributions from certain static hedges is significantly smaller than that of dynamic hedges and robust to changing market scenarios. Furthermore, these static hedges are able to provide a robust tracking of barrier options’ sensitivities. This article reflects the authors’ personal opinion and not necessarily the opinion of their employers.     

Physical delivery versus cash settlement: an empirical study on the feeder cattle contract

This paper investigates the effects of the switch from physical delivery to cash settlement on the behavior of the cash and futures prices of the feeder cattle contract traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. A bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is applied to estimate the conditional volatility structure, with a possible structural break due to the switch to cash settlement. The results show that the volatility of the futures prices (but not the cash prices) declined after physical delivery was replaced by cash settlement. In terms of futures hedging, cash settlement led to smaller and more stable hedge ratios. The variance of the hedged portfolio also decreased substantially. The evidence suggests that cash settlement is beneficial to the feeder cattle futures market.     

An international analysis of REITs and stock portfolio management based on dynamic conditional correlation models

This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers and asymmetry between REITs and stock prices for nine countries (Australia, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States) using eight different multivariate GARCH models. We also analyze the optimal weights, hedging effectiveness, and hedge ratios for REIT-stock portfolio holdings with respect to the results. The empirical results indicate that dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models provide a better fit than the constant conditional correlation models. The DCC with volatility spillovers and asymmetry (DCC-SA) model provides a better fit than the other multivariate GARCH models. The DCC-SA model also provides the best hedging effectiveness for all pairs of REIT-stock assets. More importantly, this result holds for all cases and for all models that we consider, which means that by taking spillover and asymmetry into consideration, hedging effectiveness can be vastly improved.     

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on major industries in Japan: A dynamic conditional correlation approach

This study assesses the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases on the Japanese stock market. As of October 30, 2020, the cumulative number of cases in Japan has reached over one hundred thousand. COVID-19 has significantly affected both the lifestyle and the economy in Japan. First, this study develops composite stock indices by industry sector and prefecture, taking into consideration the effects of the increase in infections on industries and firms in the core prefectures. Second, this study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations between the composite stock index returns and the increment in COVID-19 cases using dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Finally, it can contribute to financial research in terms of coexistence of regional business economies with COVID-19.     

The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model

Country risk assessment is central to the international investment, which recently has increasingly focused on emerging markets (EM). In this paper we proxy for country risk in EM by using time-varying beta. We extend existing literature by applying a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. After confirming beta is time varying in twenty EM over the period January 1995 to December 2008 we investigate the GARCH (1,1) model and find the t-distribution generates the lowest forecast errors compared to the normal error distribution and a generalised error distribution. In a comparison of previous modelling techniques the results of our modified Diebold-Mariano test statistics suggest that the Kalman Filter model outperforms the GARCH model and the Schwert and Seguin (1990) model. Using a DCC-GARCH model our evidence suggests that considering dynamic betas can improve beta out-of-sample predicting ability and therefore offers potential gains for investors. Finally, we find dynamic betas across EM are strongly associated with each nation's interest rates, US interest rates and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and to a lesser extent the exchange rates. Our results have some similarities to those in previous studies of developed markets in the economic determinants of time-varying beta but differences exist in the results on best model to forecast time-varying beta. These findings have implications for estimating country risk for investment and risk management purposes in EM.     

Competition and disclosure incentives: an empirical study of HMOs

I examine Health Maintenance Organizations' (HMOs) voluntary disclosure of product quality, which is not as complete as unraveling theories predict. After controlling for cost and demand factors, I find that HMOs use voluntary disclosure to differentiate from competitors, with lower disclosure rates in highly competitive markets. These findings are consistent with product differentiation, but challenge the intuition that competition should lead to more provision of quality information.     

Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study

In this paper, we examine the currency market linkages of South Asian member countries using daily data from 6 January 2004 to 31st March 2016. Time invariant and varying Copula GARCH models show that South Asian countries, except for India and Nepal/Bhutan, have low levels of currency market linkages which can be ascribed to poor levels of intra-regional trade intensity and portfolio flows. We reconfirm the copula results through Diebold and Yilmaz methodology and document that currency market connectedness is very limited in the South Asian region. The trends of the fundamental determinants of currency co-movements for the South Asian member countries were compared with its neighbouring regional economic bloc in Asia which has a much longer history and a wider membership base i.e ASEAN + 6. From a comparative analysis, it was found that South Asia member states have to work on their governance parameters, improve on their trade linkages and trade tariffs and work towards greater degree of capital account convertibility with adequate safeguards to achieve higher levels of currency market linkages.     

Nonlinear dynamic correlation between geopolitical risk and oil prices: A study based on high-frequency data

This study investigates the nonlinear dynamic correlations between geopolitical risk (GPR) and oil prices using nonlinear Granger causality and DCC-MVGARCH methods based on high-frequency data. The relationship between GPR and oil prices is found to have a complex nonlinear relationship rather than a simple linear one. Further, a bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality is found to consistently exist between GPR and oil volatility across different components of realized volatility. In terms of returns, GPR has relatively weak unidirectional nonlinear Granger causation with oil returns. The dynamic correlation analysis shows that GPR mainly affects oil volatility rather than returns. Moreover, GPR mainly affects oil volatility through the jump component of the oil market after the financial crisis, and there is a strong positive correlation between GPR and volatility jumps. Our findings innovatively suggest that GPR can potentially be utilized to improve models of volatility jumps and provide reference for investors and price analysts in oil markets who want to design sensible risk-management strategies.     

极值风险价值和预期损失的估计应用:以影子银行和A股市场为例

在检测金融时间序列极值的风险价值和预期损失时,由于金融时间序列具有尖峰和厚尾的特征,首先利用广义帕累托分布的安全阈值模型Hill图观测.当样本数据不多时,利用Gibbs抽样和蒙特卡洛模拟马尔科夫链来检验参数的拟合效果.最后,对从Hill图观测出的极值情况基于MCMC和MLE方法估计其风险价值和预期损失.本文以中国的影子银行规模、上证指数、上证成交量时间序列为例,检测了三者的极值风险值和预期损失,经过比较发现:上证成交量极值风险更大,影子银行极值风险相对较小.     

Large returns,conditional correlation and portfolio diversification: a value-at-risk approach

This paper, using daily returns on 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks for the period 1991-1999, investigates the possibility of portfolio diversification when there are negative large movements in the stock returns (i.e. when the market is bearish). We estimate the quantiles of stock return distributions using non-parametric and parametric methods that are widely being used in measuring value-at-risk (VaR). We find that the average conditional correlation of 30 stocks is much higher when the large movements are negative than that when the market is 'usual'. Further, we find that, contrary to the results of previous studies, there is no notable difference between the average conditional correlations when the large movements are positive and when the market is 'usual'. Moreover, it is evident from the results of the conditional CAPM that the portfolio's diversifiable and non-diversifiable risks, as measured by the error variance of the CAPM and beta respectively, are highly unstable when the market is bearish than that when it is 'usual' or bullish. The overall results suggest that the possibility of portfolio diversification would be eroded when the stock market is bearish. These findings have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management in particular and for finance in general. The ideas presented in this paper can be utilized for testing contagion in the international financial markets, a much-researched topic in international finance.     

Equity accounting adoption in regulated and unregulated settings: an empirical study

This article examines equity accounting adoption by Australian companies before and after standard AAS 14 (1984), the first standard on equity accounting in Australia. To bypass a legal constraint, AAS 14 and its successor ASRB 1016 (1989) required that equity accounting of associates appear in supplementary disclosures (third-column or footnote) and not in consolidated accounts. Before AAS 14, extensive voluntary adoption of equity accounting occurred in consolidated accounts. Equity accounting adopters from 1971 to 1989 were matched in their adoption years with companies that could have used equity accounting but did not. Throughout, equity accounting adopters' EPS tended to be declining and equity accounting adoption tended to increase reported earnings. After AAS 14, adopters showed equity accounting via a third column if it increased reported earnings but in footnote disclosures if it reduced reported earnings. Leverage is associated with adoption before but not after AAS 14, perhaps because the standards required equity accounting in supplementary disclosures which had no impact on borrowing constraints, while no such restriction on equity accounting existed before regulation. Pre-AAS14 adopters tended not to be audited by large audit firms. Adopters after AAS 14 had higher ratios of investments in associates to total tangible assets; before AAS 14 they did not. The results are consistent with equity accounting being adopted opportunistically; there is limited evidence to support contractual efficiency motives.     

Trading patterns of big versus small players in an emerging market: An empirical analysis

This study uses a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to examine interdependencies among institutional investors, big individual investors, and small individual investors, and the effects of their trading on stock returns on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE). The results imply that, during the sample period, big individual investors are the most well informed players; their trading affects not only stock returns but also small individual investors. Small individual investors are not well informed and are slow learners. Their orders to trade tend to provide liquidity to institutional and big individual investors, but there is no compensation for their liquidity services. We find that institutional investors follow neither positive-feedback nor negative-feedback trading strategies. Overall, the responses to shocks, except for those of small individual investors, decay quickly, indicating that the TSE can absorb shocks quickly and efficiently. Our analysis implies that small individual investors would be better off institutionalizing their investment decisions (e.g., by investing in mutual funds).     

Another look at GAAP versus the Street: an empirical assessment of measurement error bias

Bradshaw and Sloan (2002, Journal of Accounting Research, 40, 41–66.) document a significant increase in the difference between the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) for GAAP and Street (I/B/E/S) earnings over the 1990s, suggesting that the market has become increasingly reliant or fixated on Street earnings. In this study we investigate whether, alternatively, an “errors in variables” problem caused by a mismatch between the definitions of realized and expected earnings drives the ERC divergence. Our findings suggest that results from conventional analyses of GAAP and Street ERCs, including the ERC divergence pattern, are significantly contaminated by measurement errors in earnings surprises.     

Excess funds and agency problems: an empirical study of incremental cash disbursements

This study investigates the excess funds hypothesis using samplesof special dividends, regular dividend increases, and self-tenderoffers. All three types of firms tend to have funds in excessof industry norms before the events. The excess funds are largelynonrecurring for special dividend and self-tender offer firmsand recurring for regular dividend increase firms. The analysisof the stock price reaction suggests that large incrementaldisbursements mitigate the agency problem associated with excessfunds. In particular, the stock price reaction is positivelyrelated to excess funds for self-tender offers and large specialdividends, but not for regular dividend increases (which tendto be smaller) or small special dividends.     

The rule 10b5-1 loophole: an empirical study

This paper seeks to empirically examine the market effects of a loophole in insider trading law that allows insiders to cancel supposedly irrevocable pre-planned trades under SEC Rule 10b5-1 based on inside information. Based on an econometric analysis of a dataset of 81 NASDAQ-listed companies from 2004 to 2006, the paper concludes that: (1) the trading public attaches primary significance to the announcement of a 10b5-1 plan rather than the specified start date of that plan; (2) insiders make above-market profits using 10b5-1 plans but do not appear to arbitrarily or continually create such plans; (3) 10b5-1 plans have a significant negative effect on the liquidity of a firm’s shares, and therefore the firm’s cost of capital; and (4) insiders do not appear to increase the volatility of their own firms’ shares in order to profit by trading on the basis of material nonpublic information under the protection of the 10b5-1 safe harbor.     

日内回转交易的市场效果：基于上海证券市场的实证研究

本文利用沪市逐笔交易数据,实证研究了日内回转交易制度对市场的影响.结果表明,日内回转交易提高了市场流动性和定价效率,但并未加剧价格波动和增加投资风险.波动性与产品特征有关,与日内回转交易制度无关.日内回转交易有助于减少投资者损失,降低交易风险.     

基于多层次模糊综合评价的中小企业信用风险评估

引入多层次模糊评价方法,设计包括行业状况、上下游状况、产品状况、管理水平、财务状况和资信状况的指标体系,构建多层次模糊综合评价的中小企业信用风险评估模型。算例分析表明该方法综合了定性因素和定量因素,能有效地评价中小企业的信用风险。     

German managers'' attitudes towards Anglo-American accounting: Results from an empirical study on global accounting harmonization

The starting-point of the present paper are systematic differences between the answers of German corporate managers and professors in an empirical study by C&L Deutsche Revision AG (1995) on accounting harmonization. In this study, managers expressed themselves in all questions more positively towards current German accounting and more negatively towards US accounting than professors. The fundamental assumption put forward in this paper is that these differences are due to differences in the economic interests of the two groups. To test this empirically, hypotheses are deduced with regard to the accounting-related interests of the executive managers. The idea behind the hypotheses is that managers' answers to questions in the C&L Industry Study can be explained by structural features of their respective companies. The hypotheses are tested using multiple regression analysis. The results of the tests show that managers' answers can, to some extent, be explained by the suggested multiple regression approach. However, the answers to the rather general and abstract question (the preferred balance between the true-and-fair-view and prudence accounting principles) are much better explained than the answers with regard to detailed US-GAAP regulations. We must assume that the managers' attitudes towards concrete US-GAAP, which are directly related to corporate accounting practice, are influenced by a multitude of firm-specific and personal factors.     

Performance of advanced stock price models when it becomes exotic: an empirical study

Annals of Finance - We calibrate several advanced stock price models to a time series of real market data of European options on the DAX. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we price barrier down-and-out...