Das Nebeneinander von Sozial- und Privatversicherung

Statutory health insurance and substitutional private health insurance are involved in a competition between the systems, primarily because of the income-related contributions charged on the basis of the experience rating system in the former and the risk-oriented premiums charged according to the funding method in the latter. This difference in contribution/premium charging can lead to the selection of insureds at the time of switching, although this is more than compensated for by the fact that private health insurance makes a disproportionately high contribution to financing the health care system, owing to the insurance protection to be guaranteed for life and the absence of the privileges of the social insurance system. This selection would be eliminated and the contribution to financing even greater if, in keeping with the principle of subsidiarity and following the example of the Netherlands, the group of persons with an income in excess of the compulsory insurance income ceiling were to be compulsorily assigned to the private insurance system. This competition between the systems is mutually beneficial, in terms of both the quality of health care services and the social elements of the protection — in old age, for example. However, convergence effects also arise from the competition between the systems, as indicated by the adoption of principles of private health insurance by the statutory health insurance system — from deductibles to reimbursement of expenses — and of elements of statutory health insurance by the private health insurance system which has introduced premium ceilings and elements of experience rating and financial equalisation. The dynamic German health insurance system is ready and able to face the future. The weakness of the statutory health insurance system with regard to provision for old age contrasts with the advantage that it is better equipped to cope with cost increases thanks to the support received from the legislature. European developments will be of particular importance in this context. Uniform regulation of the health care systems throughout Europe is unlikely for constitutional～ political and cultural reasons. However, location-based reasons will lead probably to changes in national regulations with the aim of improving efficiency. The chances of the system financed by premiums will essentially be dependent on avoiding state financing of any kind. If the currency union becomes a cradle of stability, the temptation to do so will be less and premium-financed arrangements will prove to be superior, particularly if they contain such dynamic elements as the structured health insurance system of the Federal Republic of Germany.     

Compulsory Savings: Efficiency and Redistribution On the Interaction of Means Tested Basic Income and Public Pensions

In the presence of means tested basic income for old age, households will tend to reduce precautionary savings to an inefficiently low level. We explore how this might serve as a justification for a compulsory public pension system. In a representative agent framework with two income types, compulsory savings are found to be Pareto-improving up to a point. Beyond that point, increases in contribution rates simply result in increasingly regressive (implicit) taxation. Similar results are found for pay-as-you-go pensions. On the basis of our model we argue that the introduction of a funded pension component may help the German pension system to cope with demographic change more efficiently.     

Self-enforcing agreements under unequal nationally determined contributions

The Paris Agreement builds on intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by most participating nations. The INDCs vary across nations, since national circumstances differ, including national incomes and damages. The INDCs follow a bottom-up approach, whereby nations submit their plans of actions in a Nash-like form (i.e., taking the other nations’ plans as given). We build a model with normal goods and an unequal world income distribution to consider the endogenous formation and stability of an international environmental agreement (IEA) under the bottom-up approach. Nations provide carbon abatement and produce R&D efforts that promote improvements in environmental efficiency of their outputs. Nations share R&D efforts and enjoy R&D spillovers if they join an IEA. Non-members do not enjoy R&D spillovers. Global carbon abatement rises as the IEA expands in size due to the R&D spillovers. We show that the Grand Coalition is stable under a nearly perfectly equitable income distribution, where all nations make positive carbon abatement and R&D contributions. We also consider a more realistic world income distribution, in which some nations lack sufficient income to provide carbon abatement and R&D. In this case, the stable coalition contains all (wealthier) nations that make positive abatement and R&D contributions. For a very unequal world income distribution, not even a bilateral IEA, with the two richest nations in the world, is stable. The stable IEAs provide too little carbon abatement relative to the first best.     

Anforderungen an eine gerechte und funktionsfähige Alterssicherung

The German pension reform 2001 neglected important structural aspects. Relatively the number of recipients of pensions will increase, the number of payers of contributions will decrease. This generates considerable difficulties in a pay-as-you-go-system as well as in a funded system. For the diffusion of risk the extension of funded elements will be useful, the sustainability of the solutions is not sure, however. Changes in employment and families were mostly neglected. Modifications of the employment system require an extension of compulsory insurance and new rules for low earned incomes. The increasing number of divorces and the decrease in the number of children require an independent security for man and woman and new rules for the acknowledgement of the education of children in old age security.     

Don't Waste a Free Lunch: Managing the Advance Refunding Option

A callable municipal bond issue funding a new project is usually eligible for “advance refunding”—that is, refunding between the issue date and the call date. Such refunding is accomplished by issuing new bonds, and investing the proceeds in an escrow portfolio of Treasury securities whose cash flows pay off the outstanding issue until the call date, when the old bonds are retired. Under favorable market conditions, advance refunding enables a municipality to lock in lower interest rates prior to the call date; waiting until that date would expose the issuer to the risk of higher rates. The right to advance refund is an option whose value depends not only on the issuer's borrowing rate, but also on Treasury rates, which determine the cost of the escrow portfolio. What makes this option (referred to by the authors as the “ARO”) unusual is that it is effectively a free lunch for the issuer. While investors pay a lower price for a callable bond, the price is not affected by the bond's eligibility for advance refunding. The free lunch is demonstrable when the yield of the escrowed Treasuries is higher than the issuer's funding rate to the call date. In such cases, the present value of the cash flows to the call date (which is how the market prices a deep‐in‐the‐money callable bond) exceeds the cost of the escrow. This excess effectively enables the issuer to retire the bonds below their fair market value. Another manifestation of the free lunch offered by advance refunding transaction occurs when the savings exceed the expected value of waiting—that is, when the value of the call option is less than the currently realizable savings. One important consideration when deciding whether and when to advance refund is that the ARO can be exercised only once in an issue's refunding life‐cycle. If an issue is advance refunded, its replacement cannot be. But if an issue is refunded once it becomes callable, the ARO stays alive in the replacement issue. In this article, the authors develop an analytical framework to help issuers deal with this problem. First, they explore how the value of the ARO depends on coupon, maturity, time to call, and prevailing Treasury rates. Then they use the results to make a recommendation about the advance refunding decision: act now or wait? To answer this question, the authors extend the standard measure of refunding efficiency to incorporate the ARO of the replacement issue. Incorporating the ARO of the replacement issue slows down the signal to advance refund, whereas failure to do so could lead to a suboptimal decision. Near the call date, issuers may be better off locking in savings with a hedge rather than sacrificing the eligibility of the replacement issue for advance refunding.     

内蒙古人口结构、收入增长与城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究

从历年反映人口结构的相关数据中,发现内蒙古的人口结构在逐渐变化,劳动人口对未成年人口的抚养比率逐渐降低,对老年人口的抚养比率却逐渐提高。内蒙古人口年龄结构类型逐步进入老年型,而人口老龄化势必会对居民储蓄率产生一定的影响。本文选取了1985-2012年的相关变量数据,通过建立向量自回归模型及协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分析等一系列针对非平稳时间序列建模的分析方法,在一定的经济理论基础之上,分析了人口结构、收入增长对内蒙古居民储蓄率的影响。本文在人口结构、收入增长与居民储蓄率的实证分析中,首先验证了凯恩斯的绝对收入理论,不考虑人口结构的改变,得出影响储蓄率的主要因素并不是收入,也说明凯恩斯的绝对收入理论并不能很好的解释内蒙古当期的储蓄现象。然后又以莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说为理论基础建模,得出的结论与生命周期假说一致。人口老龄化会导致储蓄率的下降,而且人口结构的变化对储蓄率的影响远大于收入。长期来看,由储蓄率、收入增长率、负担少儿系数和负担老年系数这四个变量构成的经济系统是稳定的。     

将对未来的估计包含在今天的财务报表中

本文阐释了将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的方式,而不是为什么应当将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的问题。在今天的财务报表中包含对未来的估计并不是一个新概念,但用处却日益增加。这主要是因为会计准则制定机构认为,反映当前经济状况、并根据对未来的预期更新的对资产和负债的计量方式,将产生有利于做出经济决策的更为有用的信息,这正是财务报告的目标所在。这也是会计准则制定机构关注公允价值会计的原因。如何将对未来的估计包含在财务报表中,取决于资产和负债的计量属性,以及从财务报告角度对资产和负债的定义。现行资产和负债的定义取决于确定产生预期经济利益流入或流出的过去交易或事项,对于预期经济利益流入,还需要关注对预期的控制。因此,并不是所有预期经济利益的流入或流出都予以确认。附注披露能够帮助财务报表使用者理解已经在财务报表中确认的估计,并提供尚未确认估计的相关信息。将对未来的估计更多地包含在今天的财务报表中,将会产生与目前反映的收益有所不同的收益计量方式,但值得讨论的是,这种计量能够对经济决策提供更好的信息。     

Das Umlageverfahren ist besser als sein Ruf

The article concerns three substantial aspects of the continuous discussion regarding the future ability of the pension system in Germany: The conclusions from rate of return comparisons between paygo system and fully funded system, the distribution of loads by the demography development and effects of the exertion of political influence. In a first step, the politico-economic conclusions drawn from rate of return comparisons are analysed critically. It is shown that the empirically measurable difference is nothing but a spurious reason for the introductions of a capital funded system. With help of simple economic thoughts, the second central argument for a change of system, the ?fair“ distribution of loads caused by the demographic development, turns out to be a spurious reason as well. The central problem of the pension scheme is the exertion of political influence — an aspect, which is hardly considered in the discussion. Thus it becomes clear that the problem of the pension system consists in the concrete arrangement and not in the system itself. Some approaches for the solution of this problem are pointed out.     

How to Design a Contingent Convertible Debt Requirement That Helps Solve Our Too‐Big‐to‐Fail Problem*

As bank regulatory reform tries to come to grips with the lessons of the financial crisis, several experts have proposed that some form of contingent convertible debt (CoCo) requirement be added to the prudential regulatory toolkit. In this article, the authors show how properly designed CoCos can be used not just to absorb losses, but more importantly to encourage banks to recognize losses and replace lost equity in a timely way, as well as to manage risk more effectively. Their proposed CoCos requirement strengthens management's incentives to promptly replace lost capital and enhance risk management by imposing major costs on the managers and existing shareholders of banks that fail to do so. Key elements of the proposal are that conversion of the CoCos into equity would be (1) triggered at a high trigger ratio of equity to assets (long before the bank is near an insolvency point), (2) determined by a market trigger (using a 90‐day moving average market equity ratio) rather than by supervisory discretion, and (3) significantly dilutive to shareholders. The only clear way for bank managements to avoid such dilution would be to issue equity into the market. Under most circumstances—barring an extremely rapid plunge of a bank's financial condition—management should be able and eager to replace lost capital in a timely way; as a result, dilutive conversions should almost never occur. Banks would face strong incentives to maintain high ratios of true economic capital relative to risky assets, and to manage their risks effectively. This implies that “too‐big‐to‐fail” financial institutions would not be permitted to approach the point of insolvency; they would face strong incentives to recapitalize long before that point. And if they should fail to issue new equity in a timely manner, the CoCos conversion would provide an alternative means of recapitalizing banks well before they reach the brink of insolvency. Thus, a CoCos requirement would go a long way to resolving the “too‐big‐to‐fail” problem. Such a CoCos requirement would not only increase the effectiveness of regulation, but also reduce its cost. It would be less costly for banks to raise CoCos than equity, reflecting both the lower adverseselection costs of CoCos issuance and the potential tax advantages of debt. And precisely because of the low probability of CoCo conversion, the Cocos would be issued at relatively modest (if any) discounts to otherwise comparable but straight subordinated debt. Thus requiring a mix of equity and appropriately designed CoCos would be less costly to banks, and would entail less of a reduction in the supply of loans than would a much higher book equity requirement alone.     

Quality of life aspirations: Exploring baby-boomer financial means-end goal structures

Motivated by industry concerns that baby-boomers are neglecting to plan for an eventual retirement, this study examines perceptions about the importance of financial means in contributing to their quality of life. Framed by means-end chain analysis and scholarship in consumer evaluations of life satisfaction, a number of theoretical expectations are empirically confirmed. Findings indicate that financial means are not high in the order of life domains that contribute to respondent quality of life. Retirement planning relies predominantly on compulsory superannuation contributions from employers, with the assumption that this would provide sufficient income to maintain their current lifestyle. Prior to retirement, respondents reported being more preoccupied with funding children's education costs and home mortgage payments. They also wished to avoid the embarrassment of approaching a financial planner until they had a reasonable sum that required more skilful investment advice. Finally, it was revealed that gender had an influence on the priority given to financial means and subsequent decisions to seek financial planning advice. These findings confirm the importance for financial planners to determine the core motivations and subordinate means through which baby-boomers envisage achieving quality of life on the journey into retirement.     

Asset allocation and age effects in retirement savings choices

We examine the asset allocation decisions of members of three large Australian retirement savings funds. Superannuation Guarantee legislation in 1992 made Australian employees compulsory investors by requiring employers to contribute a fixed proportion of earnings to a superannuation fund on behalf of employees. A majority of these employees can choose an investment strategy for these contributions. We examine how actual investment strategy and asset allocation choices of members change with age in view of the conventional wisdom that individuals allocate less to risky assets as they age and investments theory which provides conflicting advice on the issue.     

北京市城镇无保障老人养老保险问题研究

近年来,城镇无保障老年人的养老问题日益受到政府和社会的关注。全国已有部分省市对城镇无保障老年人提供了一定的养老补贴待遇,但是,不同省市采用补贴形式各不相同,补贴标准也有一定的差异。目前,北京市城镇无保障老人主要是通过福利养老金制度覆盖,对满足年龄条件的无保障老人,每人每月都可以领取230元财政补贴。那么,在政府财力有限的条件下,如何提高无保障老人收入水平?本文提出了建立无保障老人个人缴费与政府补贴相结合的新制度,并依据2007年北京市城镇无保障老人调查数据,构建北京市无保障老人养老保险收支模型,计算并预测了未来10年的养老保险收支情况,通过这一模式表明,政府财政补贴在适度提高的前提下,无保障老人养老待遇会有较大幅度增加,而且该模式运行的稳定性较强。     

Impacts on Economic Security Programs of Rapidly Shifting Demographics

Abstract

This paper analyzes in some detail potential impacts on economic security programs—government, employer, and individual—that the aging of the baby boom generation may create. It begins by defining what is meant by “population aging” and concludes that fertility shifts are more important than improving life expectancy. It also argues that calling the baby boom the “postwar baby boom” is inaccurate and will lead to missed targets for product development and marketing. Finally, this section of the paper notes that the most rapidly growing segment of the population will be the oldest old—those age 85 and over, who will also put the greatest stress on the provision of health care and retirement income security.

The paper then looks at other demographic shifts of importance, in particular female labor force participation rates. The impact of shifting demographics is reviewed for each sponsor of economic security programs: the government (health care and social security); the employer (pension plans and group benefits); and the individual. Points of concern and offsetting opportunities for the insurance industry are noted. Finally, the paper looks at whether we will be able to “afford” the sudden retirement of the baby boom. The conclusion is that this will be affordable if we can convince a portion of the labor force to stay active longer, and if we have healthy productivity growth rates. The problems of an aging population can all be viewed as opportunities for those who have the map.     

Gaps in the IFRS Conceptual Framework

Abstract

The stated purpose of the IFRS Conceptual Framework is to assist the IASB to develop Standards that are based on consistent concepts, and also to assist preparers to develop consistent accounting policies when Standards either do not apply or allow a choice of accounting policy. Yet, the Framework actually does surprisingly little to help the IASB (or preparers) determine which assets, liabilities, income and expenses should be recognised, and how they should be measured. The Framework’s focus on assets and liabilities implies that the accounting can, and should, be determined from the balance sheet. Yet, many current financial reporting requirements focus initially on the income statement, and so they are not so much derived from the Framework as instead in need of being reconciled back to it. At its heart, the problem here is that, while the Framework states that accrual accounting provides a better basis for assessing past and future performance than cash-based information, it does not explain why. To do so would require a conceptualisation of how entities’ business models are employed to create value, and of the strengths and limitations of accounting data in enhancing investors’ understanding of that value-creation. The lack of explanation of the purpose and informational objectives of accruals, how they relate to business models and how they cause the income statement and the balance sheet to interact are gaps in the Framework. Filling those gaps would provide a more robust, and natural, way for the IASB to develop recognition and measurement requirements in its Standards.     

Performance Measurement for Nonprofits

The capital market for financing charitable work is far from efficient, and could be improved dramatically. Donors and the nonprofit agencies they fund do not share a standard set of measures and procedures to evaluate performance. Lacking measures of impact, donors—a group that includes government agencies, foundations, corporate CSR programs, and individuals—and charity “watchdogs” often focus on available information that typically has one main focus: the overhead expenses reported by nonprofits in public disclosures. The problem, however, is that the use of overhead expense as a proxy for operational efficiency and effectiveness has many shortcomings. There is no shared understanding of what expenses constitute overhead; overhead spending says nothing about the quality of a nonprofit's programs; and an excessive focus on this single dimension can cause management to underinvest in infrastructure. Management of nonprofits should be encouraged to communicate the results of their key programs—in particular, their impact on the communities they serve. For example, for at least their largest programs, nonprofits could describe the key performance indicators established at outset of their programs, and how they are currently performing against these benchmarks. A substantive management discussion that includes an explanation for any underperformance, and the corrective actions being taken, would help other agencies avoid similar pitfalls while providing potential donors with valuable information that improves not only their decision‐making, but the “efficiency” of the entire market for charitable giving.     

Income smoothing among European systemic and non-systemic banks

There is scant research on the financial reporting behaviour of global systemically-important banks (G-SIBs) and non-global systemically-important banks (non-G-SIBs). We examine the link between financial reporting and financial system stability given the understanding that income smoothing is a stability mechanism for banks. We empirically examine whether the way G-SIBs use loan loss provisions (LLPs) to smooth income differ compared to non-G-SIBs and the incentive to do so. We examine 231 European banks and find that income smoothing is pronounced among G-SIBs in the post-crisis period and pronounced among non-G-SIBs in the pre-crisis period. Also, G-SIBs exhibit greater income smoothing when they: (i) have substantial non-performing loans, (ii) are more profitable and meet/exceed minimum regulatory capital ratios (iii) engage in forward-looking loan-loss provisioning and during recessionary periods. The implication of our findings is that capital regulation and abnormal economic fluctuations create incentives for systemic banks to use accounting numbers (loan loss provisions) to smooth income, which also align with the financial system stability objective of bank regulators. Our findings are useful to accounting standard setters in their evaluation of the role of reported accounting numbers for financial system stability, given the current regulatory environment in Europe which focuses on systemic banks.     

试论老年精神保障系统的构建

养老保障应是一个全面的完整的老年人支持体系。"经济支持、生活照料和精神慰藉"是养老的三个基本内容。本文利用国内相关的实证材料和研究以及国外相关的理论和经验对我国老年精神保障的三个争议焦点——现阶段需不需要保、保什么和谁来保进行分析和讨论:(1)需要的满足并不只取决于经济发展水平,还取决于一个社会的文化价值观念和社会发展状况。快速转型所带来的文化和社会结构尤其是家庭结构的变迁削弱了我国传统的老年人精神支持模式。我们应该建立精神保障系统以维护老年人的生存健康和生活质量;(2)老年人是由不同年龄、性别、收入和教育程度等组成的群体,老年人的基本精神需要的界定需建立在社会福利的视角下——适度的、具备一定条件的需要,且与一定的文化和社会结构相适应;(3)结合对福利多元各极在我国老年人精神支持中的作用和现状的分析,我们现阶段应建立一个政府主导的多种社会力量参与的老年精神保障体系。     

个人收入分配研究中必须澄清的几个问题

所谓公平，从根本上讲是生活水平的公平，这样定义不仅符合社会现状，也使国家有了更多的实现公平的手段。不同性质的收入与效率的关系不同，对社会稳定和经济效益的影响程度不同，有的收入方式明显不具备一般的公平与效率的关系。作为判定分配结构状态的基尼系数在不同的国家说明的问题不完全一样，应当结合一些具体因素，对该数值进行适当修正。国家要调节分配结构，最有效率的方式是事先调节，通过提高义务教育资金保障程度等方式，提升农民及其他低收入的收入获取能力，应当被放在更为优先的位置。     

义务教育能提高代际流动性吗？

提高代际流动、促进机会均等对经济社会健康发展至关重要。本文基于2013年中国家庭收入调查数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,利用1986年颁布的义务教育法在省份间的实施时间差异作为外生冲击,使用双重差分方法探究义务教育政策对代际流动的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,义务教育显著提高了代际之间的教育流动性,原因在于父母教育水平、职业层次、收入水平较低的孩子,受教育年限提升得更多。本文的政策含义在于,应当进一步发挥公共政策在提高代际流动性方面的作用,通过教育机会均等化来促进社会公平正义。