Capital gains tax and the capital asset pricing model

This paper develops a version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model that views dividend imputation as affecting company tax and assumes differential taxation of capital gains and ordinary income. These taxation issues aside, the model otherwise rests on the standard assumptions including full segmentation of national capital markets. It also treats dividend policy as exogenously determined. Estimates of the cost of equity based on this model are then compared with estimates based on the version of the CAPM typically applied in Australia, which differs only in assuming equality of the tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income. The differences between the estimates can be material. In particular, with a high dividend yield, allowance for differential taxation can result in an increase of two to three percentage points in the estimated cost of equity. The overall result obtained here carries over to a dividend equilibrium, in which firms choose a dividend policy that is optimal relative to the assumed tax structure.     

The options market response to accounting earnings announcements

We examine the reaction of the equity options market to accounting earnings announcements over the period 1996–2008 using changes in implied volatility to measure the options market response to earnings news. We find that positive earnings surprises and positive profit announcements produce a larger uncertainty resolution than negative earnings surprises and loss announcements. We demonstrate an inverse relation between the change in implied volatility and earnings news in a three-day window immediately after an earnings announcement. We refer to the magnitude of this relation as the ‘options market earnings response coefficient’. This ‘options market earnings response coefficient’ is stronger for both bad news announcements and positive profit announcements. We do not find any significant relation between changes in implied volatility and earnings news in the pre- or post-announcement periods. We conclude that the options market efficiently absorbs earnings information.     

International market response to announcements of US macroeconomic data

This paper presents empirical evidence relating the announcement effects of US money supply and inflation (CPI and PPI) to Eurocurrency interest rates and the foreign currency markets (both spot and forward) for seven industrial countries over the period 1977–1982. The results indicate that unanticipated components of announced changes in money supply have a significant positive effect on Eurocurrency interest rates and a negative effect (implying dollar appreciation) on the spot exchange rates. Unanticipated changes in PPI have a positive significant effect on interest rates, a small surprisingly negative impact on spot exchange rates, and a positive effect on gold prices. The CPI has no effect on either market.     

Investor behaviour in response to Australia’s capital gains tax

We calibrate the effect of Australia’s Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on share prices and market activity. Based on a large sample drawn from all listed Australian companies for the years 1994–2007, we find significant tax‐loss selling (TLS) of shares that lost value over the financial year, which is reflected in unusually high trading volume and more sell orders in June and a rebound in July. There is some evidence that small mining stocks are particular targets for TLS. Interestingly, the 1999 CGT reforms, which introduced concessions for long‐term capital gains, did not reduce the incidence of TLS.     

The price and volume response to earnings announcements in the corporate bond market

We examine abnormal returns and trading activity in bond markets around earnings announcements. Previous work provides mixed evidence on the relative impact of positive and negative surprises and the degree of response in investment-grade and speculative-grade bonds. We find that these announcements convey value-relevant information for both positive and negative earnings surprises in both investment and speculative-grade bonds. We also document significant heterogeneity in the response across industries, with muted responses in both abnormal returns and trading activity for bonds of firms in the financial and utilities industries.     

The fading stock market response to announcements of bank bailouts

We analyze the effects on bank valuation of government policies aimed at shoring up banks’ financial conditions during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Governments injected into troubled institutions massive amounts of fresh capital and/or guaranteed bank assets and liabilities. We employ event study methodology to estimate the impact of government-intervention announcements on bank valuation. Using traditional approaches, announcements directed at the banking system as a whole were associated with positive cumulative abnormal returns, whereas announcements directed at specific banks with negative ones. Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that individual institutions were reluctant to seek public assistance. However, when we correct standard errors for bank-and-time effects, virtually all announcement impacts vanish in Europe, whereas they weaken in the United States. The policy implication is that the large public commitments were either not credible or deemed inadequate relative to the underlying financial difficulties of banks.     

The Greenspan years: an analysis of the magnitude and speed of the equity market response to FOMC announcements

We examine the impact of monetary policy on the S&P 500 using intraday data. The analysis shows an economically and statistically significant relationship between S&P 500 intraday returns and changes in the Fed funds target rate. The significance and magnitude of the response is dependent on whether the change was expected or unexpected. An expected change in the Fed funds target rate has no impact on prices in the broad equity market; however, an unexpected change of 25 basis points in the Fed funds target rate results in an approximate 48 basis points decline in the broad equity market’s return. The speed of these market reactions is rapid with the equity market reaching a new equilibrium within 15 minutes.

Increased market response to earnings announcements in the 21st century: An Empirical Investigation

We examine the role of concurrent information in the striking increase in investor response to earnings announcements from 2001 to 2016, as measured by return variability and volume following Beaver (1968). We find management guidance, analyst forecasts, and disaggregated financial statement line items are more frequently bundled with earnings announcements, and each of these items explains part of the increase in market response. Furthermore, collectively, these concurrent information releases explain a substantial fraction of the increase in market response to earnings announcements since 2001. This is in contrast to the decline in market response to management guidance issued separately from earnings and the much smaller increase in market response to analyst forecasts issued separately from earnings over this time. The findings indicate that information arrival at earnings announcement dates has increased significantly over the past two decades, and that key components of this are increased disclosures by management of guidance and financial statement line items and forecasts by analysts.     

Capital gains tax,managed funds and the value of dividends: The case of New Zealand

The taxation of capital gains for Managed Investment Funds in New Zealand was abolished in October 2007, putting these entities on a similar footing to private investors. Prior to this change most private investors were not taxed on capital gains from investments in New Zealand companies, whereas Managed Funds were taxed on these gains. New Zealand company dividends carry imputation tax credits and thus had a tax advantage for Managed Funds before October 2007. After the change the value of dividends relative to capital gains declined substantially for Managed Funds. The evidence is that the market value of the dividends, particularly for high dividends, also declined substantially subsequent to the tax change.     

Capital market behavior and operational announcements of layoffs,operation closings,and pay cuts

This article examines the relation between stock returns and a set of operating decisions: layoffs, operation closings, and pay cuts. We find evidence that cost-cutting measures occur after significant stock price declines. Announcements of layoffs and temporary operation closings are associated with negative returns, while permanent operation closings do not have significant announcement effects.     

Alcohol taxes,tax revenues and the Single European Market

This paper addresses the issue of whether tax revenue from alcohol lost through cross-border shopping could be recouped by cutting excise duties. This in turn depends on the elasticity of demand for alcohol. We use data from the Family Expenditure Survey 1978–96 to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for beer, wine and spirits before and after completion of the Single Market. We find no evidence of a significant change in elasticities after the Single Market. The tax rates on beer and wine are currently below their revenue-maximising rates, implying that a cut in the duty rate on beer or wine would lead to a decrease in indirect tax revenue from alcohol. We cannot reject that the current tax rate on spirits is at the revenue-maximising rate, implying that further increases in the duty on spirits are likely to cause indirect tax revenue to fall.     

Corporate governance and the stock market reaction to new product announcements

This study examines the explanatory power of corporate governance mechanisms on the wealth effect of firms?? new product strategies. We show that board size, board independence, audit committee independence, CEO equity-based pay, analyst following and shareholder rights are all of significance in explaining the variations in the wealth effect of new product introductions. Our results reveal that the new product strategies announced by firms with better corporate governance mechanisms tend to receive higher stock market valuations than those of firms with poorer governance mechanisms. This study provides empirical support for the notion that enhanced governance mechanisms can reduce both agency and information asymmetry problems for firms announcing new products.     

Corporate tax avoidance and the timeliness of annual earnings announcements

Consistent with an agency theory of tax avoidance, this study investigates the extent to which tax avoidance results in a less timely annual earnings announcement. Using 16,340 firm-years spanning the period 1993–2010, evidence is presented suggesting tax avoidance that manifests through greater temporary and permanent book-tax differences results in a less timely annual earnings announcement. This result is robust to including several controls previously documented to affect reporting delay, including the magnitude of the earnings surprise, size, profitability, auditor-related influences, shareholder composition, capital intensity, financial reporting aggressiveness and financial condition. Evidence is also presented suggesting that tax avoidance impacts the value-relevance of earnings to investors at the announcement date, evaluated by the earnings response coefficient.     

Value-at-risk in a market subject to regime switching

Many empirical researches report that value-at-risk (VaR) measures understate the actual 1% quantile, while for Inui, K., Kijima, M. and Kitano, A., VaR is subject to a significant positive bias. Stat. Probab. Lett., 2005, 72, 299–311. proved that VaR measures overstate significantly when historical simulation VaR is applied to fat-tail distributions. This paper resolves the puzzle by developing a regime switching model to estimate portfolio VaR. It is shown that our model is able to correct the underestimation problem of risk.     

Capital gains tax,supply‐driven trading and ownership structure: direct evidence of the lock‐in effect

This study investigates the effect of differential capital gains tax rates on investor trading and share prices in a unique market setting that facilitates the resolution of conflicting prior evidence of holding period tax incentives. In particular, we examine whether the concessionary tax treatment of long‐term capital gains increases the supply of shares that qualify for long‐term status, thereby causing downward price pressure. We find evidence of abnormal seller‐initiated trading following the 12‐month anniversary of listing for IPO firms that appreciate in price (‘winners’) and report no such evidence for firms that decline in price (‘losers’). Consistent with the tax concessions being greater for individual than institutional investors, we report that abnormal seller‐initiated trading is mitigated by higher levels of ownership by institutional investors. We also report limited evidence, for winners, of declining share prices upon qualifying for long‐term tax status.     

Capital gains taxation and shareholder wealth in takeovers

Before December 1999, the capital gains of shareholders who sold their shares into Australian takeovers have been taxable irrespective of payment method. Subsequently, shareholders can elect to rollover capital gains in equity takeovers. We examine the effect of this change on the association between target shareholder capital gains and bidder and target firm shareholder wealth. The results indicate that prior to the regulatory change, cash consideration results in higher target shareholder returns for non‐taxation reasons. After the introduction of capital gains tax rollover relief, we find that target and acquiring firm shareholders earn lower returns when cash consideration is offered to shareholders with greater capital gains.     

Macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market

This study shows that the dominance of the overlapping trading hours of London and New York in the price discovery of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY markets only applies on days with U.S. announcements. Different from Cai et al. (2008) and Wang and Yang (2011), we highlight the informational advantage of local traders at the arrival of macroeconomic announcements in the local market, and find that macroeconomic announcements affect the pattern of price discovery across different markets, consistent with Chen and Gau (2010) and Jiang et al. (2012). We also examine changes in information shares before and after the announcement. A significant increase in price discovery before the announcement suggests the possibility of information leakage, while enhanced price discovery efficacy after the announcement suggests that prices gradually adjust to new information, not just immediately respond to the arrival of announcements.     

The origin principle and the welfare gains from indirect tax harmonization

This paper establishes a parallelism between indirect tax harmonization when taxes are levied according to the destination principle and its counterpart when taxes are imposed on an origin basis. Using a simple two-country model of international trade it is argued that, under normal circumstances, indirect tax harmonization under the origin principle, considered as a movement of domestic taxes toward an appropriately designed average tax structure, is potentially Pareto improving. It is also shown that if the initial position is a Nash equilibrium, there are exceptional situations under which the above-mentioned reform may generate an actual Pareto improvement, so that both countries improve their welfare without any need for a compensating international transfer.