Location,governance, and strategic determinants of japanese manufacturing investment in the united states

A firm's decision to manufacture abroad depends on location, governance, and strategic factors. Governance factors are firm-specific. In spite of this, most empirical studies of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been conducted at the industry level (making it impossible to look at firm-specific determinants), and only a handful have considered governance, location, and strategic factors simultaneously. This paper is the first large sample study of the determinants of foreign direct investment at the product and firm-level. It examines the impact of location and governance factors, and of four types of strategic interactions, on a Japanese firm's propensity to manufacture in the U.S. The results support the view that foreign direct investment is explained by location, governance, and strategic variables. Economies of scale and trade barriers encourage Japanese FDI in the U.S. The larger a Japanese firm's R & D expenditures, the greater the probability it will manufacture in the U.S., but this is not the case for advertising expenditures. Some strategic factors are also important: Japanese firms with medium domestic market shares have the highest propensity to invest in the U.S. There is evidence of follow-the-leader behavior between firms of rival enterprise groups, but none of ‘exchange-of-threat’ between American and Japanese firms. Japanese investors are also attracted by concentrated and high-growth U.S. industries.     

Time delays,competitive interdependence,and firm performance

Research summary: Competitors' experiences of prior interactions shape patterns of rivalry over time. However, mechanisms that influence learning from competitive experience remain largely unexamined. We develop a computational model of dyadic rivalry to examine how time delays in competitors' feedback influence their learning. Time delays are inevitable because the process of executing competitive moves takes time, and the market's responses unfold gradually. We analyze how these lags impact learning and, subsequently, firms' competitive behavior, industry profits, and performance heterogeneity. In line with the extant learning literature, our findings reveal that time delays hinder learning from experience. However, this counterintuitively increases rivals' profits by reducing their investments in costly head‐to‐head competition. Time delays also engender performance heterogeneity by causing rivals' paths of competitive behavior to diverge. Managerial summary: While competitive actions such as new product launches, geographical expansion, and marketing campaigns require up‐front resource commitments, the potential lift in profits takes time to materialize. This time delay, combined with uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of competitive actions, makes it difficult for managers to learn reliably from previous investment decisions. This results in systematic underinvestment in competitive actions. The severity of the underinvestment grows as the time delay between an investment and its positive results increases. Counterintuitively, however, competitors' collective underinvestment increases profit‐making opportunities. In industries with large time delays, companies that do invest in competitive actions are likely to enjoy high returns on investment. It is also likely that rivals' paths of competitive behavior bifurcate. Together, these mechanisms generate large differences in competitors' profits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How law,politics and transnational networks affect technology entrepreneurship: Explaining divergent venture capital investing strategies in China

This article identifies three distinct patterns of investment behavior by venture capital firms investing in technology sector start-ups in China. The first pattern is the service-oriented, technology-light investment behavior exhibited by the foreign venture capitalist firms not founded by ethnic Chinese. The second pattern is the technology creation investment pattern exhibited by foreign firms founded by ethnic Chinese and embedded in ethnic Chinese communities. The third pattern consists of local state-funded Chinese venture capital firms that choose either to invest in state-directed projects or opt out of investing in technology start-ups entirely. What explains the differences in behavior between the strictly foreign and the ethnic Chinese-embedded foreign firms are the different legal environments in which these firms honed their skills. The different learned experience gained from operating in different environments explains why the foreign firms avoid investing in technology-generating activities in China whereas the ethnic Chinese firms are willing to do so despite China’s notorious weak intellectual property rights regime. The political factors influencing the distribution of finance in China explain the behavior and essential failure of the local state-run venture capital firms. These findings demonstrate that several distinct, separate and non-clashing institutional arrangements are concurrently operating within China and shaping the behavior of venture capital firms there.     

Generic and specific social learning mechanisms in foreign entry location choice

We combine economic and institutional theories of clustering in foreign entry location choice in an overarching social learning conceptualization. Prospective entrants learn about the attractiveness of alternative locations by observing the entry choices of previous investors (‘models’). We distinguish two types of learning that differ in observational focus width but can and do operate simultaneously. With assessment learning, firms judge the economic feasibility and agglomeration benefits of entering a location by observing and following a broad set of models. With bandwagon learning, firm‐level uncertainty narrows attention to, and prompts the following of, specific models, with recentness of model behavior an important moderator. We find broad support for our conceptualization in an analysis of the entries of 692 Japanese electronics firms into Chinese provinces during 1979–2001. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence in learning: Inter‐ and intraorganizational learning in foreign market entry decisions

From an organizational learning perspective, we argue that the information signaled by the distribution attributes of foreign investors already operating in a location will influence the entry decisions of later arrivals by affecting their level of confidence in imitating. In the context of foreign investment decisions, the proportion of experienced firms in a location was shown to first increase a follower firm's confidence about imitating them, but then to decrease it, due to anticipated competition. The impact of learning from target organizations also varies with the experience of the learning organization. Data on the location choices of 7,478 manufacturing ventures in China by U.S. firms supported the hypotheses. The results provide a more integrated and nuanced understanding of learning in foreign direct investment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

JOINT VENTURE BUY‐OUTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

This paper provides a theory of joint venture buy‐outs in the presence of demand uncertainty. In an infinite horizon framework with demand uncertainty, we consider a foreign firm's decision on whether to form a joint venture or to open a fully owned subsidiary. Without the possibility of future share adjustment, the foreign firm enters the market through a joint venture if the host‐country firm helps to reduce the uncertainty significantly. Consequently, the firm enters at an earlier point in time compared to the situation in which opening a fully owned subsidiary is the only option to the firm. The possibility of future share adjustment in the joint venture further increases the incentive to speed up foreign investment. Although the possibility of share adjustment results in a joint venture buy‐out and can reduce the future profits of the host‐country firm, it may increase host‐country welfare by attracting foreign investment at an earlier point in time. We show the implications of learning in the joint venture.     

The effect of own-firm and other-firm experience on foreign direct investment survival in the United States, 1987–92

We argue that foreign firms operating in a host country generate information spillovers that have potential value for later foreign direct investment. We test two predictions. First, we expect foreign direct investments by firms with experience in a host country to be more likely to survive than investments made by first-time entrants. Second, foreign direct investments will be more likely to survive the greater the foreign presence in the target industry at the time of investment, subject to two contingencies. The first contingency is that the relationship will be weak or nonexistent among firms with no experience in the host country, because these firms have difficulty evaluating and taking advantage of the information spillovers. The second contingency is that the presence of other foreign firms will not affect investment survival among firms that already have a presence in the target industry and undertake expansion. These firms already possess general information about the target industries and are unlikely to gain additional benefit from information spillovers. We find supportive evidence based on the survival to 1992 among 354 U.S. investments undertaken by foreign firms in manufacturing industries during 1987. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dynamics of learning alliances: competition,cooperation, and relative scope

We show how the tension between cooperation and competition affects the dynamics of learning alliances. ‘Private benefits’ and ‘common benefits’ differ in the incentives that they create for investment in learning. The competitive aspects of alliances are most severe when a firm's ratio of private to common benefits is high. We introduce a measure, ‘relative scope’ of a firm in an alliance, to show that the opportunity set of each firm outside an alliance crucially impacts its behavior within the alliance. Finally, we suggest why firms might deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior patterns. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

R&D investment dynamics in agglomerations under weak appropriability regimes: Evidence from Indian R&D labs

What are the dynamics of R&D investment when firms agglomerate in environments with weak intellectual property rights protection? Specifically, do foreign and domestic firms present equal opportunities for free riding by domestic firms in such environments? We examine the impact on local firms' R&D investment from knowledge spillovers originating from co‐located foreign and domestic firms within and across industries. Building on fieldwork in India, we predict free riding by local firms on nearby foreign and local firms. Furthermore, we expect local firms to free ride more from other local firms within their industry and from foreign firms across industries. Analyzing a sample of 3,475 R&D lab investment decisions during 2003–2010 in India, we find that local firms free ride from other local firms both within and across industries. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Entrepreneurship?

In analyzing firm entry and exit across Belgian manufacturing industries, this paper presents evidence that import competition and foreign direct investment discourage entry and stimulate exit of domestic entrepreneurs. These results are in line with theoretical occupational choice models that predict foreign direct investment would crowd out domestic entrepreneurs through their selections in product and labor markets. However, the empirical results also suggest that this crowding out effect may be moderated or even reversed in the long-run due to the long term positive effects of FDI on domestic entrepreneurship as a result of learning, demonstration, networking and linkage effects between foreign and domestic firms.     

Declared essential patents and average total R&D expenditures per patent family

The sharp increase in SEP declarations and declaring firms emphasizes the necessity for understanding firms’ innovation investment behavior in standardization. This paper empirically investigates whether declared standard-essential patents (SEPs) and the declaring firm’s business model (operationalized as a firm’s location in the value chain) are associated with a firm’s innovation investment behavior. To this end, we measure firms’ innovation investment behavior through average total research and development (R&D) expenditures per filed patent family for publicly listed firms from 1999 to 2018. Our sample mainly includes major SEP family declarants. We rely on a binary business model taxonomy differentiating upstream and downstream firms. Within that setting, total R&D expenditures rise with increasing fragmentation of declared SEP families, suggesting that firms adjust their R&D investments to declaration developments in standard-setting organizations (SSOs). We also show that upstream firms have significantly lower total R&D expenditures than downstream firms, which could indicate structural differences in their intellectual property (IP) and R&D management processes. Our results can help SSOs and regulators better understand firms’ innovation investment behavior.     

Does international research and development increase patent output? An analysis of Japanese pharmaceutical firms

Internationalizing research and development is often advocated as a strategy for fostering the development of technological capabilities. Although firms conduct international R&D to tap into knowledge bases that reside in foreign countries, we argue that in order to benefit from international R&D investments firms must already possess research capabilities in underlying or complementary technologies. We examine the international R&D expansion activities, research capabilities, and patent output of 65 Japanese pharmaceutical firms from 1980 to 1991. We find that firms benefit from international R&D only when they possess existing research capabilities in the underlying technologies. In addition to refining our understanding of when international R&D enhances firm innovation, our results integrate asset‐seeking and asset‐based theories of foreign direct investment. Internationalizing R&D to tap into foreign knowledge bases is consistent with asset‐seeking theories of foreign direct investment, while the contingent nature by which firms benefit from international R&D is consistent with asset‐based theories of foreign direct investment and the notion of absorptive capacity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring longitudinal risk‐return relationships

We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk‐return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path‐dependent processes—a random walk and a stochastic trend. Computational simulations at low levels of learning in both environmental contexts are consistent with empirical data. However, the results are also consistent when firm behavior appears to be mindless in the form of a random walk. Hence, both imperfect learning and a mindless random walk can lead to the inverse longitudinal risk‐return relationships observed empirically. We discuss this apparent paradox and the possible resolution between mindless and conscious behavior as plausible causes of the longitudinal Bowman Paradox. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment decisions in troubled times: A Bayesian approach applied to Brazilian firms

This study analyses the investment decision of 497 Brazilian firms during a period of unstable macroeconomic conditions. The role of financial constraints is considered in a Bayesian econometric model. We estimate three different models, and the results indicate the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms. The recursive predictive density criterion indicates that the most preferred model is the one in which firm-specific effects are correlated with cash-flow. Financial restrictions are more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.     

Letter to the Editor: A Disputation Between the Authors and the Reviewing Editor

One of the major risks encountered in economic evaluation of foreign direct investment is the changes in future exchange rates that may affect the accuracy of the estimated economic worm of the investment. The objective of this article is to present a model for reducing the uncertainty associated with changes in foreign exchange rates when conducting economic evaluations of foreign direct investments. The model uses the Purchasing Power Parity Theorem and weighted averages for creating a procedural approach in which future changes in exchange rates are considered and included in the calculation of an overall profitability measure.     

Investment dynamics in markets with endogenous demand

I examine entry into markets where demand is an increasing function of past sales because of learning, networks, or fashion. Demand is initially unknown (with firms learning in Bayesian fashion) and grows endogenously over time. The competitive expansion path and the efficient/monopoly solution differ not only with respect to levels (the market's investment is too low), but also time patterns : externalities contribute to S-shaped diffusion. There is also path-dependence: small initial differences may determine whether the market will grow or not open. Policy arguments for subsidizing entry into new markets, especially in infant export industries, are examined.     

MERCHANT TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT*

We examine the performance attributes of a merchant transmission investment framework that relies on ‘market driven’ investment to increase transmission network capacity needed to support competitive wholesale markets for electricity. Under a stringent set of assumptions, the merchant investment model has a remarkable set of attributes that appears to solve the natural monopoly problem and the associated need for regulating electric transmission companies. We expand the merchant model to incorporate several attributes of wholesale power markets and transmission networks that the merchant model ignores. These include market power in wholesale electricity markets, lumpiness in transmission investment opportunities, stochastic attributes of transmission networks and associated property rights definition issues, strategic behavior by potential merchant transmission investors and issues related to the coordination of transmission system operators and merchant transmission owners. Incorporating these more realistic attributes of transmission networks and the behavior of transmission owners and system operators leads to the conclusion that several potentially significant inefficiencies may result from reliance on the merchant transmission investment framework. Accordingly, it is inappropriate for policymakers to assume that they can avoid dealing with the many challenges associated with stimulating efficient levels of investment in electric transmission networks by adopting the merchant model.     

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL RISK ON THE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DECISION: A CAPITAL BUDGETING ANALYSIS

Using a capital budgeting framework, we examine the impact of political risk on the foreign direct investment decision. Political risk may alter operating cash flows via discriminatory regulations as well as the investment via expropriation. We model the impact of political operating costs and expropriation costs on the NPV of a project under the assumption that the parameters that affect the NPV are constant over the life of the project. Next, we provide an illustration for the case in which the relevant parameters are variable over the life of the project. The paper concludes with an example of political risk in the 1990s, the case of Black Sea Energy Ltd.'s investment in Russia.     

外商直接投资、政府支出对中国技术进步效应的经验分析

本文将外商直接投资和政府支出结合起来,主要通过建立时变参数模型,利用我国2000～2014 年的数据,对比分析外商直接投资、政府支出对我国技术进步的影响。根据分析结果提出对 策建议,加快我国技术进步的速度必须依靠政府的力量,增加教育投入,调整政府科技投入 结构和加强对科技资金的管理以及提高利用外商直接投资的质量。     

Using Copula Functions in Bayesian Analysis: A Comparison of the Lognormal Conjugate

Bayesian techniques have been applied to analyze sequential investment decisions in the capital budgeting literature. This article introduces copula-based Bayesian analysis as an alternative to the traditional approach where conjugate relationships do not exist. Using a numerical example, we illustrate the steps involved in the copula-based Bayesian approach. Graphical techniques for selecting an appropriate copula are also discussed. The unique ability of copulas to model nonlinear dependence rationalizes the use of copula functions as an alternative technique.