Structural change in the U.S. import prices of manufactures

Zusammenfassung Strukturbruch in der Gleichung für die amerikanischen Importpreise von Industrieerzeugnissen. — In den achtziger Jahren hat der Wechselkurs des US-Dollar stark geschwankt, aber im allgemeinen scheinen diese starken Wechselkursbewegungen einen geringeren Einflu\ auf die amerikanischen Importpreise gehabt zu haben als in der vorangegangenen Dekade. Um dieses r?tselhafte Ph?nomen zu verstehen, wurde die Parameter-Stabilit?t in der Gleichung für die US-Importpreise getestet. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, da\ das absolute Glied in dieser Gleichung in der Zeit von 1980 bis 1982 betr?chtlich kleiner geworden ist; allerdings ist dessen quantitativer Effekt ziemlich gering, um dieses merkwürdige Ph?nomen erkl?ren zu k?nnen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen auch, da\ die Sensitivit?t der amerikanischen Importpreise in bezug auf Wechselkurs?nderungen in der Periode von 1982 bis 1984 erheblich nachgelassen hat. Dieser Befund k?nnte bei aller Vorsicht die erh?hte Starrheit der amerikanischen Importpreise in den achtziger Jahren erkl?ren helfen.

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Résumé Le changement structurel dans l’équation des prix d’importations américainespour les produits manufacturés. — Le cours du change pour le dollar américain a dramatiquement fluctué pendant les années 1980, mais ces grands mouvements des changes semblent avoir causé moins d’effet sur les prix d’importations américaines qu’ils avaient causé pendant la décade précédente. Pour mieux comprendre ce phénomène on a fait des tests sur la stabilité des paramètres de la fonction des prix d’importations américaines. Les résultats montrent que la constante d’une telle fonction a été baissée d’une manière significante pendant la période de 1980 à 1982. Pourtant, son effet quantitative n’est pas assez important pour expliquer le phénomène. Les résultats indiquent aussi que la sensitivité des prix d’importations américaines aux variations du cours du change semble avoir diminué substantiellement pendant la période de 1982 à 1984. Ce résultat, même s’il est regardé comme une tentative, semble être utile pour expliquer la rigidité augmentée des prix d’importations américaines pendant les années 1980.

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Resumen Cambio estructural en los precios de manufacturas importadas en los EE UU. — La tasa de cambio del dólar EE UU ha fluctuado dramáticamente en los a?os ochenta, pero generalmente se considera que estos importantes movimientos del dólar EE UU han tenido menor impacto sobre los precios de importación en los EE UU que los que tuvieron lugar en la década anterior. Con la intención de explicar este fenómeno se llevaron a cabo tests de estabilidad de parámetros de los precios de importación de los EE UU. Los resultados sugieren que el miembro constante de la ecuación de precios de importación de los EE UU se ha movido hacia abajo de manera significante en el periodo 1980-82. Sin embargo, su efecto cuantitativo es más bien pequeno en cuanto a su contribución a explicar el fenómeno. Los resultados también indican que la sensitividad de los precios de importación de los EE UU a movimientos de la tasa de cambio parece haber disminuído bastante durante el periodo 1982-84. Este resultado, a pesar de ser tentativo parecería ser util para explicar el aumento de rigidez de los precios de importación de los EE UU en la década del ochenta.

     

美国医改怎么改

在中国百姓看来，奥巴马政府“让人人都能享有医疗保险”的医改方案，值得拍手叫好。但在美国，却招致半数以上的民意反对，原因何在     

The impact of a change in exchange rate pass-through on U.S. imports

The Impact of a Change in Exchange Rate Pass-Through on U.S. Imports. - One import demand equation is specified that is potentially affected by a breakdown in pass-through and one that is not. From the difference in the forecasts of these two equations an upper-bound estimate is derived for the impact on U. S. non-oil imports of the breakdown in exchange rate pass-through during the 1980s. The empir-ical evidence suggests that exchange rate pass-through may have changed after 1985. Without this shift in pass-through U. S. non-oil imports may have been a maximum of 15 percent lower by 1990.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

Engel versus Baumol: Accounting for structural change using two centuries of U.S. data

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States.     

时事要闻企业交通通讯补贴将征个税

国家税务总局近日发布通知，就企业向职工发放交通通讯补贴扣缴个税等相关问题进行明确。 通知称，企业采用报销私家车燃油费等方式向职工发放交通补贴的行为，扣除一定标准的公务费用后，按照“工资、薪金”所得项目计征个人所得税。公务费用扣除标准由当地政府制定，如当地政府未制定公务费用扣除标准，按交通补贴全额的30％作为个人收入扣缴个人所得税。     

U.S. census data uses

"This article examines the principal applications of the statistics yielded by the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. Before doing so, however, a framework of census policy and operational features that directly influenced the content of the questionnaires will be outlined.... Having established this background, the uses of census data will be addressed, citing case examples in some instances, for...major groups of data users."     

美国经济：保持复苏态势

第三季度GDP为2008年第二季度以来首度增长 美国第三季度经济出现一年多来首次扩张。第三季度GDP季调后年率上升3．5％,高于此前经济学家预期的3．2％,这是2008年第二季度以来首次GDP增长。其中,第三季度消费者支出增长3．4％,对GDP增长的贡献度为2．36个百分点。第三季度除去食品和能源之后的核心通胀率由第二季度的2．0％降至1．4％,表明物价压力逐渐缓和。     

Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates

Romero‐Ávila and Usabiaga (2007) find that many U.S. state unemployment rates are stationary, a result at odds with the traditional view that unemployment rates are path‐dependent and subject to shocks that have permanent effects. They base their results on multivariate unit root tests that provide for two breaks in mean. This note extends the analysis to directly examine whether the series were fractionally integrated. When no allowance is made for breaking means, the results suggest evidence in favor of hysteresis, an outcome that generally applies when one break in mean is considered. Allowing for two breaks demonstrates that the evidence in favor of the natural rate and the hysteresis hypotheses is temporally sensitive.     

The Future of U.S. Capitalism

In this work, Frederic Pryor tries to predict the future of U.S. capitalism through the year 2050. His laboriously constructed arguments, spread out over perhaps too many pages, offer the reader a decidedly downbeat future. Using a model that relies on three main dimensions—degree of governmental influence, degree of economic competition, and degree of social solidarity—he concludes that declines in economic competition and social solidarity may lead to a future where an oligarchic market economy may well prevail. While there is much to agree with in this effort, Pryors discussion is disproportionably devoid of the topics that are generally associated with the success of capitalism—namely, the issues of private property ownership, the efficiency of the price system, the role of the entrepreneur, and the benefits of competition. He argues that if capitalism is to survive, then individual self-interest, as we know it, will have to be replaced by a more communal type of decision making—one where people make decisions on the basis of mutual best interest.     

美国纺织服装区域性生产网络与中美纺织品协议的效应评估

为了应对全球化的挑战,美国与周边的墨西哥和加勒比海地区(CBI)国家合作,形成了一条以纵向一体化为核心的区域性纺织服装生产网络(regional production network,RPN)。由于RPN合作国家是美国纺织产业重要的出口市场,因此后者在该网络中具有既得利益。美国政府进而签订的《中芙纺织品协议》(以下简称"协议")旨在抑制后配额时代中国输美服装类产品对该RPN的冲击。本文就"协议"的实施对相关贸易流量的影响进行了评估。结果显示,"协议"已经对中国输美服装类产品产生贸易破坏效应,而墨西哥和CBI国家对美国的服装出口则从中受益。然而,研究并未显示"协议"的实施有助于美国增加纱线、面料等纺织类产品向RPN合作国家的出口,因而"协议"对美国纺织产业的实际保护效应有必要予以反思。本文的研究结论对于2008年"协议"到期后相关政策的制定和调整具有重要的借鉴意义。     

美利坚之魂

华盛顿故居位于弗吉尼亚州的波多马可河岸边。临近故居还有几公里时,路两边的树木就看出一种异乎寻常的茂盛。树都很粗,树叶乌黑黑的,树林很密,看不到边际。故居在一个小山包的山顶上,叫弗农山庄。弗农山庄是华盛顿同父异母的哥哥劳伦斯在其父亲所盖的一处房子基础上改建的,起名叫弗农山庄是为纪念哥哥心目中的一位偶像、一位英国海军上将。     

中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。     

美国经济：继续回暖

美国二季度的经济数据最新修订后显示,二季度美国内生产总值折合成年率为环比下降0.7%,初值为1.0%。美国权威研究机构蓝筹经济指标（Blue Chip Economic Indicators）10月份对顶级经济学家的调查结果显示，美国第三季度经济增长年率将达到3．2％，     

U.S. professional football game-day attendance

This paper uses Tobit analysis to estimate a model which explains game-day attendance at professional football games in the U.S. Several potential determinants of attendance are accounted for in the model. The data used in the analysis pertain to 392 regular season games played during the 1986 and 1987 National Football League seasons. The estimation results suggest that attendance is greater when the opposing teams—particularly, the home team—are of higher quality. There is also evidence that games expected to be close in score are more heavily attended than those that are not. Rainy conditions reduce fan turnout, although warmer temperatures lessen the negative effect of precipitation. Higher ticket prices lead to lower attendance, and fans are apparently indifferent to whether games are played either indoors or outdoors.     

享受美国售后服务

在国内，人们买了商品后退货要费很多口舌，甚至吵闹一番也没有结果。在美国，商家的服务方式和服务速度都让我们感到震惊。看看美国的售后服务，也许能给中国的商家们一些启示和反思。