The role of mutual funds in the sustainable energy sector

The integration of renewable energy criteria in mutual fund investment decisions could channel private resources into the funding of environmentally related projects implemented by firms contributing to sustainable development. This paper examines the performance of European renewable energy funds that invest globally by comparing their risk‐adjusted returns with those achieved by black energy and conventional mutual funds. It uses Carhart's model on a sample of 81 renewable energy funds, 125 black energy funds, and 4,337 conventional mutual funds. The results indicate that 32.1% of renewable mutual funds—most of which adopt energy producers, renewable energy technology, and energy efficiency‐focused criteria—perform significantly better than the S&P Clean Energy market benchmark, this percentage being affected by the different states of the economy. However, none of them are able to beat the fossil fuel energy (S&P Global 1200 Energy Index) or conventional market benchmarks (S&P Global 1200 Index). Furthermore, 37.04% of renewable energy funds significantly underperform the S&P Global 1200 benchmark. Therefore, the investment in renewable energy funds has a financial cost for investors in relation to conventional fund investors.     

熊市下我国开放式证券投资基金业绩持续性研究

采用基于回归分析的多期基金业绩持续性评价模型,对56只中国的各类开放式证券投资基金在熊市下的业绩持续性进行了实证研究。结果表明:在短期内,各类基金的业绩不存在持续性,基金业绩往往具有反转性。不同的基金超额业绩的计算方法有时会对评价结果影响很大。     

An empirical analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wall Street Journal’s</Emphasis> SmartMoney fund screen

We examine mutual funds that appeared in the Wall Street Journal’s SmartMoney Fund Screen column from September 2004 through July 2009. We find that the majority of funds listed do not have Morningstar’s highest five star rating. Regardless of Morningstar rating, the average prepublication performance of the funds is significantly higher than the benchmarks used to measure performance. Post publication, fund performance declines, and the decline is statistically significant across our performance measures. However, additional tests indicate that the SmartMoney funds which have a three or four star rating from Morningstar are better investment values than corresponding five star Morningstar funds with the same prospectus objective and expense ratio.     

A comparison of corporate versus government bond funds

We examine four separate classifications (high quality corporate, general corporate, government Treasury, and general government) of investment grade bond funds over the 1994–2009 period. We verify that distinct differences exist in investment styles across the classifications. We also document significant differences in performance as corporate funds outperform government funds by a risk adjusted average of 8 to 53 basis points on an annual basis depending on the model used. The performance differences are not strictly a function of expenses and are robust to alternative evaluation metrics. An examination of cash flows to the funds indicates that investment dollars are driven by the differences in risk adjusted performance.     

Emerging market mutual fund performance: Evidence for Poland

This paper provides evidence on the performance of mutual funds in a prominent emerging market; Poland. Studying an emerging market provides an excellent opportunity to test whether the consensus on the inability of mutual funds in developed and highly efficient markets to beat the market, also holds in less efficient markets. While the weaknesses of legal institutions and underdeveloped capital markets in emerging countries could negatively contribute to performance, a certain level of market inefficiency might also enable fund managers to successfully apply security selection and therefore beat the market. This paper presents an overview of the Polish mutual fund industry and investigates mutual fund performance using a survivorship bias controlled sample of 140 funds. The latter is done using the Carhart (1997) 4-factor asset-pricing model. In addition, we investigate whether Polish fund managers exhibit “hot hands”, persistence in performance. Finally the influence of fund characteristics on risk-adjusted performance is considered. Our overall results suggest that Polish mutual funds on average are not able to add value, as indicated by their negative net alphas. Interestingly, domestic funds outperform internationally investing funds, which points at informational advantages of local over foreign investors. Finally, we detect strong persistence in mean returns up to 1 year. It is striking that “winning” funds are able to significantly beat the market, based on their significantly positive alpha's. These results deviate from studies on developed markets that conclude that even past winners are not able to significantly beat the market.     

Interactions between Preemptive Competition and a Financing Constraint

We develop an investment and financing model in which two identical firms compete for first‐mover advantage in an opportunity to invest. We investigate the interactions between preemptive competition and a financing constraint. We show that a medium‐intensity financing constraint can play a positive role in mitigating the preemptive competition and improving firm value in equilibrium. This positive effect is in sharp contrast with the conventional negative effects of the financing constraint. The positive effect is strong, especially for IT venture businesses because of the following characteristics: severe preemptive competition, a lack of internal funds, high uncertainty regarding future project value, and high bankruptcy costs.     

The Market Performance of Socially Responsible Investment during Periods of the Economic Cycle – Illustrated Using the Case of FTSE

The debate about socially responsible investment (SRI) portfolio performance compared with its non‐SRI counterparts remains inconclusive. This paper contributes to the debate by adding a new approach, examining the issue of a full economic circle through economic boom, recession and recovery. We compare stock performance of two value‐weighted investment portfolios: FTSE4Good (SRI portfolios) and FTSE 350 (conventional portfolios) from 2004 to 2011 including 2007 to 2009 financial crash. The results indicate the SRI portfolio performed better and recovered its value quicker in post‐crisis than the non‐SRI portfolio, indicating that SRI portfolios are more resilient to economic turmoil and market shocks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles

Prior research has employed a number of methods to test for speculative bubbles in asset prices, including a method based on the concept of duration dependence. This study explores whether duration dependence tests for speculative bubbles are sensitive to specification decisions. Our results question the efficacy of using measures of duration dependence to test for speculative bubbles. In particular, we find that evidence of duration dependence is sensitive to the method of correcting for discrete observation of continuous duration, the use of value-weighted versus equally weighted portfolios, and the use of monthly versus weekly runs of abnormal returns. (JEL C41, G12)     

Mutual fund selection and performance persistence in 401(k) Plans

We examine how plan sponsors/providers select mutual funds for 401(k) plans and whether performance persistence exists for mutual funds listed in 401(k) plans. Using a hand-collected data set of 401(k) investment options, we find that plan sponsors are likely to choose actively managed growth funds, including aggressive growth funds and long-term growth funds. Furthermore, more than 50% of the mutual funds in our sample of 401(k) plans are selected from the top 10 fund families in terms of total net assets. On average, plan sponsors select funds that outperform the funds with the same investment objective and that have low expense ratios. The performance of mutual funds in 401(k) plans only persists in a short horizon. Our analysis indicates that the menus of 401(k) investment options do not exhibit a signaling effect, indicating that investment options in 401(k) plans do not supply useful information about the future performance of mutual funds for investors in selecting mutual funds.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

开放式基金和基金家族业绩持续性研究

我国证券投资基金快速发展,从属于同一家基金管理公司的单个基金越来越多,形成基金家族。本文研究从单个基金和基金家族的整体两个层面,采用实证检验方法对其业绩持续性进行研究,研究表明我国开放式基金仅具有短期的业绩持续性,而基金家族的整体业绩不存在持续性,籍此结果提示投资者不应仅仅关注基金的短期业绩,应更多关注基金的长期业绩表现,规避投资中对家族和规模的偏好,关注高价值基金,才能最大程度保障资金安全和自身的利益。     

基于DEA方法的投资基金业绩评价

本文在传统投入产出效率分析———数据包络分析 (DEA)方法的基础上 ,通过采用改进型的投入产出DEA模型 ,对深圳证券市场2002年前上市的25家封闭式证券投资基金在2002年上半年的业绩进行综合评价。结果表明 ,在评价期间内大部分基金表现为相对无效。同时我们给出基金相对效率名次     

证券投资基金业绩度量模型探析

证券投资基金是中国资本市场上一支重要的力量,对其业绩进行客观评价是一项极其复杂的系统工程。本文试图运用风险调整收益的思想,分别选取风险价值VAR与尾条件期望CVAR的加权平均、以及ARCH模型计算出来的条件异方差作为风险测度指标,建立基金业绩评价模型。     

The discourse of inflation accounting

The value of a share is given by the dividend discount model as a simple function of future dividends; but the actual determination of the share price is rarely based upon the direct estimation of these future dividends. A ranking of the valuation models used by analysts and fund managers shows a preference for ‘unsophisticated’ valuation using, for example, the dividend yield rather than the dividend discount model. This finding is shown to depend upon the practical difficulty of using currently-available information to forecast future cash flows. This difficulty limits the quantitative basis of valuations to short forecast horizons, while the subjective, qualitative estimation of terminal value assumes great importance. Crucially, both analysts and fund managers use their own assessment of management quality to underpin the estimation of terminal value, on the basis that superior quality causes outperformance and that, whereas management quality can be assessed now, future performance itself is unobservable. Linked with this and with information asymmetry, valuation is a dynamic, company-specific process, focused on personal communication with management and embodying ongoing signalling and implicit contracting, using both dividends and other variables. This method of valuation causes formal valuation models such as the dividend yield to play only a limited role. They offer a benchmark of relative price differences, which serves as a basis from which to conduct subjective, company-specific analysis and to make investment decisions; but valuation models are not used exclusively, in themselves, to value shares.     

Developments in non-expected utility theories: an empirical study of risk aversion

This paper investigates different developments in non-expected utility theories. Our focus is to study the agent’s attitude towards risk in a context of monetary gambles. Based on simulated data of the “Deal or No Deal” TV game show, we first compare the performance of the expected utility model versus a loss-aversion model. We find that the loss-aversion model has a better performance compared to the expected utility model. We then study the attitude towards risk according to two parameters: the relative risk aversion coefficient defined over the value function and the probability weighting coefficient proposed by the Cumulative Prospect Theory. We find evidence for probability weighting being undertaken by contestants reflecting less risk aversion over large stakes. We also explore the performance of two models of rank-dependant utility: the Quiggin (1982) and the power probability weighting models. We find that the probability weighting coefficient is still significant for both models. Finally, we integrate initial wealth into the contestants’ preferences function and we show that the initial wealth level affects the estimates of risk attitudes.     

基于VaR的我国证券投资基金绩效评价方法

证券投资基金绩效的评价,不仅要考察基金的收益率,而且还要看它所承担的风险。投资基金绩效评价传统经典方法主要有特雷诺指数法、夏普指数法、詹森指数法及T-M模型、H-M模型。基于VaR的证券投资基金绩效评价方法——RAROC,这种经风险调整后的绩效评价方法能更客观、准确地反映证券投资基金的绩效。     

国内证券投资基金组合规模与风险关系的实证研究

本文选取2010年7月10日—2012年2月29日之间基金的数据,运用证券投资组合模型对国内各种类型的证券投资基金进行风险与组合规模关系的研究,结果发现,随着组合规模的增大,风险逐渐减少,当规模增大的一定程序,风险趋于一稳定值,不同类型的证券投资基金有着不同的最优组合规模。     

社会责任投资与价值投资相悖吗?——基于国际经验的比较

社会责任投资促进了公司绩效评价模式的变革。从美国和亚太地区的经验来看,社会责任投资的整体表现更好;社会责任形象较好公司股票价格表现更佳;强有效的资本市场一方面将推动社会责任形象好的公司股票获得更高估值,另一方面也将促使上市公司在社会责任领域投入更多资源。长远来看,社会责任投资与价值投资并不相悖。社会责任投资在中国的发展之路还属于起步阶段,中国上市公司对企业社会责任持有非常积极的观点,但中国资本市场并没有给企业社会责任积极评价。     

Looking for sustainable development: Socially responsible mutual funds and the low-carbon economy

Sustainable investment responds to demands for carbon and climate-neutral societies. To address the urgency around climate change and provide investors with more qualified information, Morningstar has developed the Low Carbon Designation (LCD) to indicate that the companies held in a portfolio are in general alignment with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The designation is given to portfolios that have low carbon risk and fossil fuel exposure scores. The present study builds on the LCD by examining the relationship between these scores and financial performance. With this aim, we analyze 3920 socially responsible mutual funds from across the world. Results show differences in financial performance according to scores and investment areas. We find evidence that funds considered to have higher levels of sustainability achieved better performance than funds with higher exposure to companies involved in carbon and fossil fuel industries. We provide insights on the informativeness of these new scores with a focus on climate change and their relevance in helping investors to identify climate-aware funds. This study highlights the importance of introducing strategies to develop green finance; the analysis confirms that sustainability improves performance. Finally, the LCD indicator is shown to be relevant for making fairer comparisons among socially responsible funds and, ultimately, for developing low-carbon economies.     

证券投资基金价值的模糊综合评价

通过建立证券投资基金价值的综合评价指标体系,运用模糊综合评价的方法,对证券投资基金的价值进行综合评价,从而得出基金的价值是否良好,以帮助投资者确定投资决策。