China＇s Urban Employment and Urbanization Rate： A Re-estimation

The present paper argues that China＇s existing population and employment statistics are misleading, and have failed to include many of the migrant and labor force flows between urban and rural areas. The paper reconciles the differences between official census data and other survey statistics and attempts to recalculate China＇s urban population and employment figures. Our analyses indicate that official statistics of 2012 underestimate China ＇s urban employment by approximately 47 million while overestimating rural employment by 31 million. The adjusted urbanization rate exceeded 55 percent in 2012, almost 3 percentage points higher than the official statistics. Nevertheless, there remains much potential for rural-to-urban migration. More specifically, if the current bottlenecks in household registration, social security and public welfare systems can be removed or relaxed, China＇s urbanization rate could rise by another l O percentage points or even more over the next decade.     

Roots of Tomorrow＇s Digital Divide： Documenting Computer Use and Internet Access in China＇s Elementary Schools Today

This paper explores China＇s digital divide, with a focus on differences in access to computers, learning software, and the Internet at school and at home among different groups of elementary school children in China. The digital divide is examined in four different dimensions： （i） between students in urban public schools and students in rural public schools; （ii） between students in rural public schools and students in private migrant schools; （iii） between migrant students in urban public schools and migrant students in private migrant schools; and （iv） between students in Han-dominated rural areas and students in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities. Using data from a set of large-scale surveys in schools in different parts of the country, we find a wide gap between computer and Internet access of students in rural areas and those in urban public schools. The gap widens further when comparing urban students to students from minority areas. The divide is also large between urban and rural schools when examining the quality of computer instruction and access to learning software. Migration does not appear to eliminate the digital divide, unless migrant families are able to enroll their children in urban public schools. The digital divide in elementary schools may have implications for future employment, education and income inequality in China.     

Inequality and the Urban-rural Divide in China： Effects of Regressive Taxation

Using three comparable national representative household surveys for China in 1988, 1995 and 2002, the present paper reveals the regressivity and urban bias of China＇s direct tax and welfare system in this period It shows that a regressive taxation system and skewed allocation of subsidies increases the urban-rural income gap and enhances overall inequality. Modeling these relationships indicates that the relatively poorer rural population has a net tax liability, whereas those in the richer urban areas receive net subsidies. This pattern is common in China, although the extent of the bias varies. This skewed system of tax and welfare payments is a major cause of the persisting urban-rural income gap and contributes to the overall income inequality in China. The abolishment of the agriculture tax in 2006 has had a positive impact on rural people ＇s livelihoods.     

Poverty Reduction in China： The Contribution of Popularizing Primary Education

Using the instrumental variable model and the regression discontinuity approach,this paper explores how access to primary education affects the Chinese labor market and helps people to escape poverty.Several important findings are obtained.The popularization of primary education has significantly reduced poverty in China,especially in urban areas.In contrast,the Compulsory Education Law has not been well implemented for older children in rural areas.In addition,the labor market premium for completing primary education is much larger in urban areas than in rural areas.Poor rural school quality might explain this rural-urban disparity.Effort needs to be made to further reduce poverty by ensuring adequate financial resources for primary education in poor areas and improving school quality in rural China.     

China＇s Labor Transition and the Future of China＇s Rural Wages and Employment

This paper contributes to the assessment of China＇s rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one＇s province to destinations closer to home. The present paperfinds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China＇s rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China ＂s rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women （and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs）. Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China＇s growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm.     

Role of Green Governance in Achieving Sustainable Urbanization in China

Since economic reforms began in 1978, China＇s urban population has increased by half a billion. Over the next 20years, cities will likely add another 300 million people through local population growth, migration and the integration of nearby rural areas, Cities account for the majority of resource use and pollution so achieving greener growth will depend on developing and implementing a more sustainable urbanization model. China＇s leaders have responded to these challenges with ambitious goals and comprehensive environmental laws and regulations. These have so far not significantly reduced the harm from air, water and soil pollution.＂ in large measure because China ＂s green governance does not match its green ambitions. Drawing on the World Bank ＇s work on green growth and a recent joint urbanization study by the Development Research Center of China＇s State Council and the Worm Bank, this paper reviews recent academic research on green governance in urban China and discusses its main implications in the context of emerging global green growth concepts.     

Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China

Since 2003, China has been facing a trilemma of determining how to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. The present paper is an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by sterilization and offset coefficients, respectively, using monthly data between mid-1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, but not in terms of M2, and that China＇s capital controls still work but are not quite effective. Recursive estimation reveals that increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing effectiveness of sterilizations might undercut China＇s ability to maintain monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously. To solve the trilemma smoothly, China＇s monetary authority should continue to relax the management of the exchange rate, and take further steps towards deregulation of capital outflows.     

Population Aging and Housing Consumption： A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,     

Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

On the Coordinated Development of Urbanization and Rural Economy in China

Urbanization is one of important missions in china＇s modemization. The most vital task in the advancement of urbanization is to increase peasants＇ income and appropriately solve the issues concerning agriculture, rural areas and peasants, thus ensuring the accelerated development of rural economy. This paper mainly discusses five issues that urgently need solving in the development of rural economy and urbanization. They include peasant＇s qualification and right of the real management entity in the market, financial support, circulation and transference of agricultural land, welfare and social security of peasants and fairness of taxes on peasants.     

Poverty Reduction and Effects of Pro-poor Policies in Rural China

The present paper describes changes in poverty reduction in recent decades and the effects of income growth and inequality on poverty reduction in rural China. The paper also examines the main poverty alleviation policies implemented in rural areas over the past l 0 years and assesses the effectiveness and efficiency of these policies from the perspective of targeting accuracy. It is found that China has achieved significant progress in rural poverty reduction in recent decades, although the speed of poverty reduction has varied from one period to another. The largest contribution to rural poverty reduction has been economic growth, which has been increasingly offset by the inequality effect on poverty reduction. In addition, poverty alIeviation policies are effective, but not efficient.     

Prediction of Labor Force＇s Supply and Demand in Urban Areas of China

In the recent years, with the promotion of reform and the exposing of some profound contradictions, the problem of unemployment is outstanding day by day and becomes an important problem in present China＇s economics. Based on the data offered by China Statistical Yearbook： 2003, the short-term supply and demand of labor force in urban areas of China is predicted in this paper.     

农村义务教育辍学原因与农户家庭基本情况的关联分析

The main purpose of this paper is concerned about children‘s discontining study in rural areas or dropout phenomena in rural children‘s education, and their relationships with the economic condition of the rural households. The conclusion is that family income, parents‘ education level and structure of family operations have cross-impact on the education of a country child. To reduce the dropout rate of rural children, a key measure is to increase farmer‘s income, but income increase alone is not sufficient. It is argued that reducing dropout is a relatively long-term process that cannot be solved with shot-term government policy adjustment. To increase the rate of junior middle school education in rural areas, an overall economic and social development in rural areas is necessary.     

Effect of Migration on Children＇s Self-esteem in Rural China

China＇s rapid economic growth has been facilitated by its large volume of rural to urban migration. China ＇s projected future development, especially increasing urbanization, implies that such migration will further intensify. However, migration does not come without cost. There are concerns about the potential negative impacts of migration on children＇s care, education, and, in particular, the self-esteem of children left behind in villages where one or both parents have out-migrated to cities. In this paper, we employ unique survey data collected from Shaanxi Province, where more than 4700 ninth grade students from 36 rural junior high schools in five counties were surveyed in late 2011. The results show that having both parents migrate into cities significantly reduced children ＂s self-esteem. The effects are also gender sensitive. Girls that had a father or both parents who had out-migrated were inclined to have lower self-esteem than boys. Moreover, our study findings indicate that parental migration decreased children ＂s self-esteem more for individuals with initial low self-esteem.     

Analysis of innovative water-saving irrigation systems in rural areas ——Taking Taocheng in Hebei province as an example

Since China＇s rural areas is short of groundwater resources, one focus in water management study is water waste in irrigation in rural areas. The root causes of water waste are inefficient management and market-based instruments which are due to the ＂common pool resources＂ property of water resources, and this property ultimately results in ＂public tragedy＂. Farmers＇ awareness of water saving and water resources＇s use efficiency can be promoted through the innovation of systems, the introduction of collective action, the establishment of autonomous organizations of water users, the implement of participatory management of water users, and the price adjustment by economic means. Saving water through system arrangement enriches the content of water resources management in theory and provides system sustainment for water-saving in engineering and agriculture in practice.     

Do Poor Rural Households Produce Less Grain than Non-poor Rural Households

China＇s poor rural households produce substantially less grain compared with non-poor rural households. The present paper applies a decomposition approach and uses China＇s rural household survey data to investigate the causes of this grain output gap The paper first compares the grain output gap between poor and non-poor rural households, and then decomposes the gap into differences in yield and area sown, The results indicate that the gap in grain output mainly results from differences in the amount of inputs used in production. Differences in the number of labor days and the level of intermediate inputs account for 13.6 and 47.S percent of the gap, respectively. Poor rural households are also less efficient in their use of intermediate inputs, which contributes to 13.2percent of the gap. However, the efficiency of poor households＂ labor days reduces the gap by 7.2 percent, while agricultural physical capital, househoM head education and agricultural training have no substantial impact on the household grain output gap.     

China＇s Sustained Economic Growth： Do Direct R＆D Spillovers Matter？

Using data from 1986-2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China＇s economy. We use telephone line penetration rates andpersonnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnelflows are important components of international R＆D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China＇s economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R＆D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R＆D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China＇s R＆D intensity.     

Regional Environmental Performance and Its Determinants in China

A growing awareness of environmental quality hasplaced increasedpressure on China to improve environmental protection and regulations in the country. How have the regional economies in the country performed in terms of environmental efficiency？ The answer to this question is yet to be explored in the case of China. The objective of this paper is to present a quantitative analysis of environmental performance in China＇s regional economies and to examine the determinants of regional variation in performance. The findings are used to draw policy implications for environmental protection and are helpful in the discussion of China＇s future sustainable development.     

Neighborhood Effects and Regional Poverty Traps in Rural China

The present paper investigates how neighborhood effects are connected to chronic poverty. We examine a large sample of groups of households and find that neighborhood effects are significant in a majority of groups, especially in the poorest groups. People living in poor communities tend to suffer from poverty over time. It is of theoretical and empirical importance to explore how neighborhood effects are interrelated with chronic poverty and the channels through which this occurs. Unlike other econometric analyses, we establish a multilevel econometric model to show that： （i） it is difficult for an individual living in a neighborhood with a high proportion of agricultural labor, low education levels, and poor transport and telecommunication infrastructure to escape from poverty traps; （ii） neighborhood effects dominate in poor communities; and （iii） although poverty is affected by group-level factors, individual factors still play a dominant role in regards to escaping poverty when income surpasses a threshold level Therefore, policy priority should be given to providing social protection and public services, especially in poor rural areas.     

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.