香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

进入中国大陆的FDI主要来自日本、美国、中国香港等国家和地区。进入中国大陆的香港FDI主要有港商投资、在港中资机构投资和“假外资”投资等三种类型。中国大陆东部沿海地区是香港FDI进入的优先区域,并向内地呈梯度分布。我们以1980—2008年的中国省级面板数据为基础,实证研究了香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素。本文结论显...     

Why does so much FDI from Hong Kong and Taiwan go to Mainland China?

While the European Union, the US, and Japan (the Triad) supply 90% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and China is the second largest FDI recipient in the world, most FDI into China did not come from the Triad but from Hong Kong and Taiwan (HKT). Evidence presented in the paper reveals that the unusually large amount of Hong Kong–Taiwan direct investment (HKTDI) cannot be fully appreciated without understanding China's location characteristics and differences between HKTDI and the Triad FDI. Four determinants of the dominant HKTDI in China are identified: China's export-promotion FDI strategy, its large pool of cheap labor, HKT's specific advantages in export-oriented FDI, and their unique links with China (the Chinese connections). Empirical results suggest that HKTDI was primarily motivated by low labor costs while FDI from the Triad was market-oriented. As China's domestic markets become more open to foreign investors, the share of HKTDI may shrink and the importance of FDI from the Triad may rise.     

FDI and market entry/exit: Evidence from China

This paper considers the impact of FDI and FDI-related spillovers on the entry and exit rates of domestic firms in mainland China's manufacturing sector. Since we suspect that aggregate results obscure differing effects based on the source of the FDI, we disaggregate FDI into that originating from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan (HMT) area and the rest of the world. The empirical analysis, based on 4-digit industry level panel data over the period 2003–2007, reveals that FDI originating from the rest of the world has made a significant contribution to the entry rate of domestic firms in China and the spillover effect arising from backward linkages is also positive and significant. However, FDI originating from HMT area has not encouraged domestic entry, whilst it has contributed to an increase in the exit rate of domestic firms.     

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA BY HONG KONG'S CROSS‐BORDER GARMENT FIRMS

Hong Kong manufacturers have historically been one of the main sources of foreign direct investment to China, but their contribution to the transfer of technology to the mainland has been questioned due to the generally labor‐ rather than capital‐intensive, low‐value‐adding activities they perform there. Using data from eighty‐four Hong Kong‐based garment manufacturers that have invested directly in mainland China, this paper examines the role of Hong Kong FDI in the transfer of technology to China. Analyses show that Hong Kong garment firms are in fact human‐capital‐intensive and are endowed with valuable managerial technology and, moreover, act as effective channels for the transfer of such technology to mainland China.     

Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?

This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990–2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular from Japan and Korea.     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.     

中国内地与香港经济周期的区制依赖协同性分析——纳入美国经济影响的实证

本文运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的区制依赖特征以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行了分析。实证结果不仅证实两地经济周期的协同性存在依赖于经济周期区制状态的门限性质,而且显示:两地经济周期的正向协同性,隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响;当剥离出美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。在此背景下,促进中国内地与香港经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Clustering of Foreign Direct Investment and Enhanced Technology Transfer: Evidence from Hong Kong Garment Firms in China

Separately, both foreign direct investment (FDI) and industry clusters have each received considerable and growing attention in development literature. Each is broadly thought to affect economic growth positively through facilitation of knowledge and technology transfers. But FDI and industry clusters in conjunction have not hitherto been empirically considered specifically with regard to such transfers. This paper does so by examining the proposition that FDI within geographical industry clusters should transfer technology more than FDI that is geographically dispersed. Data are drawn from a quantitative survey of Hong Kong garment firms with manufacturing investments in Mainland China. Clustered FDI is shown to be significantly better than dispersed FDI at transferring technology in certain respects, implying that industry cluster and FDI policies should be considered in tandem rather than separately if developmental benefits from both are to be optimized.     

全球价值链分工下的双边贸易收益核算：以中美贸易为例

通过构建双边贸易收益核算模型,从总体规模、行业结构、实现方式等层面对中美双边贸易收益进行核算。本文发现中美双边出口中均包含着大量的对方国内增加值,与增加值贸易差额比较,传统统计口径的中美贸易差额出现明显高估。其中中国对美货物出口的贸易顺差被显著高估,而服务出口的贸易顺差被明显低估。在中美双边贸易中,中国对美出口包含的本国国内增加值比重不到七成,而美国对华出口包含的本国国内增加值比重超过八成。中国出口到美国的产品绝大部分表现为最终产品并且被美国当地消费,而美国出口到中国很大部分表现为中间品,并且通过对增值折返及对第三国出口的形式实现。     

New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region

Aggregate trade data with breakdown into related and non‐related party components show that US multinational enterprises use different trading strategies in the China region relative to other countries. US trade with the China region in 2002–2007 is characterized by arm's‐length transactions. State‐level trade data show great variability in state engagement with the region through trade: exports to the region range from 1 to 28 percent of state exports. In addition, compared to exports to other countries, exports to the region are highly concentrated. At the extreme, for some states, 96–98 percent of exports to the region are computer and electronic products. Finally, gravity regressions show that state exports to Hong Kong are positively associated with the relative size of the Hong Kong‐born population in the states. There is no evidence that stricter labor regimes lead to lower state exports.     

Institutions and FDI location choice: The role of cultural distances

Using an extensive data set on foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) in the Chinese mainland, we compare the sensitivities of the location choice of foreign direct investment (FDI) from six major source countries/areas (Hong Kong, Taiwan, US, EU, Japan and Korea) toward the variation in the strength of economic institutions across China's regions. It is found that FIEs from the source countries/areas that are culturally more remote from China often exhibit a stronger aversion to regions with weaker economic institutions. Moreover, this pattern is often more salient when FDI takes the form of fully-owned enterprises (FOEs) than when it takes the form of joint ventures (JVs).     

“港股直通车”对两地股市影响的实证分析

本文以股权分置改革后的最新数据为研究对象,首先剖析了香港股市与内地股市的高度关联性,然后运用计量经济方法检验两地股市的相关性、以及“港股直通车”前后两地股市关系发生的变化,从而得出结论：在当前背景下,不宜推出“港股直通车”。这也证明了中央暂停港股直通车的合理性与及时性。     

The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants

The linkages between the People's Republic of China and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the People's Republic of China and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Amongst all, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the mainland. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degree of financial and real integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages as well as exchange rate volatility. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (1) (2006) 128–153.     

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a bilateral preferential agreement signed among China, Hong Kong, and Macao which opens up the China market by providing zero tariff after accession. This paper sheds light to the impacts of the CEPA on merchandise trade with an in-depth analysis on export efficiency. Despite that merchandise trade has already been fully liberalized, the estimation results indicate that the efficiency of exports to China has been on the decline since 2000. This implies that the actual value of exports to China has departed from its full potential, and confirms our suspicions on the incapability of the CEPA to boost the exports of Hong Kong and Macao to China. There is also no evidence to support that the CEPA has successfully attracted foreign investment to Hong Kong and Macao for tariff free exports to China.     

香港商业拆迁法律制度及启示

我国内地目前尚未制定有关商业拆迁的法律,以致与之相关的拆迁纠纷尚没有一个妥适的解决依据。相比之下,香港特区已形成较完善的商业拆迁法律制度,尤其是通过有条件地运用强制售卖制度,较好地平衡了私人发展商和少数业主之间的利益,促进了土地的重新发展,对我国内地商业拆迁法律制度的构建具有借鉴意义。     

浅析CEPA框架下内地同香港、澳门服务贸易中的法律适用问题

本文从简要介绍CEPA入手,分析了CEPA框架下的法律适用原则;大陆与香港、澳门法律规定上的差别;我国现有服务贸易法制存在的缺陷等问题后,提出了解决大陆与香港、澳门的法律适用问题的些许建议,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

中国对外直接投资与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于美国、中国香港、越南的合成数据回归分析

由于人民币升值、外汇储备飙升，更多的中国企业选择以对外直接投资的方式参与国际经济分工，对外贸易与对外直接投资的关系也变得愈加紧密和复杂。选取1996-2006年中国对美国、中国香港、越南的FDI流量，进、出口量做合成数据回归分析，结果表明：中国对外直接投资与对外贸易的关系在空间上存在不同，二者关系以及关系强弱因东道国（地区）经济发展水平不同而不同。最后，提出了有关的对策建议。     

上市地产公司自组REITs的绩效分析

截至2008年1月,我国共有七只REITs在香港成功上市,其中就包括一只由内地物业组建的权益型REIT越秀。但内地至今未引入REITs制度。本文以越秀REIT为例,分析上市地产公司在REITs上市后的绩效,从而探讨REITs制度的引进,会对我国房地产企业和行业产生的短期,中期及长期影响。     

Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China, 1998–2007

As with many developing countries, the Chinese government hopes that knowledge brought by multinationals will spill over to domestic industries and increase their productivity. In this paper, we show that foreign investment originating outside of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan has positive effects on individual firm level productivity, while foreign investment from HKMT firms does not. We also test for both horizontal (within the same industry) and vertical (upstream or downstream) linkages from foreign investment. Using a manufacturing firm-level panel for 1998 through 2007, we find zero or weak positive horizontal externalities. However, our results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) has generated positive productivity spillovers to domestic firms via backward linkages (the contacts between foreign affiliates and their local suppliers in downstream sectors) as well as forward linkages (between foreign suppliers and their local buyers in the upstream sectors).