Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: Comment

We take issue with the reasoning of Coniglio et al. ( 2009 ) that whereas better‐skilled illegal migrants will prefer to return‐migrate, lower‐skilled illegal migrants will not. We argue that under asymmetric information, all the illegal migrants are initially paid a wage based on the average productivity of the group of illegal migrants. The better‐skilled illegal migrants thus face two “taxes:” being paid less than if they were legal, and being averaged down. Therefore, better‐skilled illegal migrants can be expected to expend more effort to become legal than lower‐skilled illegal migrants. And once legalized, there is no reason for the better‐skilled illegal migrants to want to return to their country of origin more than the lower‐skilled illegal migrants. Thus, it is the lower‐skilled illegal migrants that are likely to dominate the return migration flow. We argue that in other respects too, the model of Coniglio et al. is not based on reasonable assumptions, and that even under the postulated assumptions, the model suffers from several inconsistencies. In particular, when the rate of return to savings is an increasing function of skill level, we would expect there to be few better‐skilled individuals among illegal migrants in the first place. Also, an obvious distinction between savers and borrowers is ignored.     

Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills

In this paper we show that highly skilled clandestine migrants are more likely to return home than migrants with low or no skills when illegality causes "skill waste", i.e. when illegality reduces the rate of return of individual capabilities (i.e. skills and human capital) in the country of destination. In a simple life-cycle framework, illegality is modeled as a tax on skills that reduces the opportunity cost of returning home particularly for the highly skilled. This proposition is tested on a sample of apprehended immigrants that unlawfully crossed the Italian borders in 2003. The estimation confirms that the intention to return to the home country is more likely for highly skilled illegal immigrants. The empirical results of this paper attenuate the common wisdom on the return decisions of legal migrants, according to which low-skill individuals are more likely to go back home (mainly because of negative self-selection).     

管理层海外经历、短视主义与企业创新：有调节的中介效应

高管海外经历具有知识溢出效应,能够促进企业创新。采用2012—2020年中国A股上市公司数据,实证检验管理层海外经历、短视主义对企业创新的影响机制。结果表明,管理层海外经历通过抑制短视主义促进企业创新,这一影响路径受到融资约束的前半路径调节和政府补助的后半路径调节。基于企业生命周期视角,上述影响路径在成长期和成熟期成立,在衰退期不成立,融资约束对上述影响路径的前半部分调节在成熟期成立,政府补助对上述影响路径的后半部分调节在成长期成立。研究结论有助于打开管理层海外经历对企业创新影响机制的“黑箱”,拓展管理层海外经历经济后果研究,为企业创新高质量发展提供经验证据。     

国外旅游创业研究及其对构建创业型社会的启示

通过对《旅游研究纪事》等三大国际旅游权威期刊1995—2008年6月以来发表的相关创业文献的梳理,发现其研究结果对经济危机背景下中国构建创业型社会有着重要的启示,集中体现在全民创业(尤其是返乡农民工和女性创业)、创业动机的激发、创业行为的引导与培育及政府职能强化等方面,提出中国加强旅游创业促进构建创业型社会需要加强几个方面的研究。     

国外社会创业研究述评与展望

本文试图通过大量的文献调研,探讨国外社会创业研究现状和问题,并且提出中国学者进一步研究的思路;本研究发现,社会创业作为一个独立的学术探寻领域,正在逐步被学术界认同。但理论文章甚多,严格意义之下的实证研究偏少。如果再进一步进行分析可以发现,目前社会创业研究存在的根本性问题是缺乏一个统一的科学、严谨、结构合理的基于社会创业原有模型的法则网络理论框架。通过对"社会创业导向"的有关研究进行综述发现,基于"社会创业导向"构建该理论框架并进行实证研究是未来社会创业研究的发展方向。目前,学者们对"创业导向"能运用于社会创业组织之中达成一定的共识。但对"创业导向"的五个维度包括创新、超前行动、风险承担、进攻性竞争和自主性是否都能反映社会创业过程的本质以及各维度在社会创业情境下如何定义和测量,争论不一,需要进一步研究。     

Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of devaluation in a model where, following structuralist theories, investment is treated as output of a composite good produced by combining domestic and imported components in fixed proportions. Introducing investment goods of this type alters a number of results. Most notably, the Marshall-Lerner condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for an expansionary outcome and, under simple and plausible conditions, a devaluation may worsen the payments balance.     

Injecting Competition into Public-Sector Return to Work: Prospects for the "Ticket to Work" Initiative

The Ticket to Work legislation (1999) introduces private-sector competition into the provision of return-to-work services for persons with disabilities who receive Disability Insurance (DI) payments. This article examines the likely effects of the Ticket to Work initiative using data from the Social Security Administration's Project NetWork experiment (1993–98). The analysis demonstrates that the efficacy of the Ticket to Work program will depend on whether the private sector replaces the vocational rehabilitative services currently provided by the public sector, or whether it expands the delivery of services—both in terms of the level and range of services provided, as well as increasing the portion of DI beneficiaries receiving services. (JEL H4 , I0 , J2 )     

Saving, Investment, and Capital Mobility in LDCs

The Coakley, Kulasi, and Smith current-account solvency model ( Economic Journal , 1996, pp. 620–7) is used to investigate saving and investment in LDCs. This model implies that saving and investment cointegrate with a unit coefficient irrespective of the degree of capital mobility. Panel and conventional unit-root tests indicate that LDC current accounts are stationary. The Feldstein–Horioka cross-section regression coefficient for LDCs is lower than the corresponding OECD coefficient, indicating different policy responses in these countries rather than higher capital mobility. Finally, adjustment toward solvency is slower in LDCs, reflecting their vulnerability to external shocks and the impact of financial repression.     

三峡库区移民人力资本因素与劳动报酬收入关系的实证研究

利用重庆云阳县529户移民户的调查数据,对三峡库区移民户的人力资本因素与其家庭劳动报酬收入的相关性进行了分析。实证分析结果显示:移民户的各人力资本因素(包括劳动力文化程度、技能状况、健康状况、就业培训状况、劳动工作持续时间)与其家庭年均劳动报酬收入均存在显著的相关性;家庭年均劳动报酬收入的增加会促使移民户家庭加大对子女教育的年投入和劳动力医疗年支出。     

Savings,remittances, and return migration

"We use a data set of immigrants to West Germany to simultaneously study both savings and remittances which we relate to individual characteristics, economic variables, migration experiences and remigration plans. Section 2 discusses the basic hypotheses and explains the data. Section 3 presents the empirical study and Section 4 summarizes." The results suggest that "savings and remittances of migrants can be well explained by remigration plans and economic as well as demographic variables. However, the planned future duration of residence in Germany has a negative and significant effect only on remittances."     

家族性、创业导向与家族创业绩效

家族企业不仅仅是创业的一种组织形式,创业也不仅仅是家族企业生命周期中一个阶段或战略,相反,家族嵌入式创业是关于家族对创业全面综合影响的恰当描述。因此,家族涉入创业活动产生了与创业理论和家族企业研究既有联系又有区别的独特的理论问题,正发展成一个新兴的研究领域。本文通过阐明家族涉入创业活动的家族性因素和创业导向,构建了一个基于资源视角的家族创业研究框架,并指出了未来的研究方向。     

Interest rate policy,effective demand,and growth in LDCs

Orthodox criticisms of ‘financial repression’ in LDCs argue that interest rate liberalization promotes investment and economic growth by increasing the supply of bank credit and improving the efficiency of credit allocation. The present paper develops a Kaleckian model in which increases in deposit interest rates may lower investment and growth by placing downward pressure on effective demand – even if interest rate liberalization results in decreased borrowing costs. The focus of the Kaleckian model on effective demand issues is then contrasted with prior criticisms of the proliberalization view. Finally, the relevance of the Kaleckian approach is demonstrated in connection with the important role of effective demand and distributional effects in the failure of the Chilean financial liberalization to promote a stable growth of output and investment.     

Credibility, Irreversibility of Investment, and Liberalization Reforms in LDCs

Empirical evidence of the impact of policy uncertainty on aggregate investment is mixed. However, if the relationship between policy uncertainty and investment performance is nonlinear, linear regression exercises might not capture the effect of policy uncertainty. In this paper, I present a simple model with investment irreversibility which shows that, in the presence of legal constraints on investment in foreign assets, domestic real investment performance is poorer when liberalization reforms are only partially incredible .     

Savings, Volume of Trade, and Growth

This paper develops a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth to analyze the effects of international trade on steady-stage growth. The two countries differ both in preferences and in technologies. It is shown first that both countries cannot simultaneously experience increases in consumption growth from trade. It is then shown that trade can increase output growth for both countries if the attitude towards saving matches the change in the terms of trade in each country. A country facing a decline (rise) in its output price grows faster if its intertemporal elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low (high).     

国外金融中心形成与发展的经验及启示

国外主要金融中心形成与发展的经验表明:金融中心的形成以发达的腹地经济为基础;政府推动是金融中心形成的重要因素;商务中心区(CBD)对金融中心的发展具有促进作用.这些经验为目前我国的金融中心建设提供了重要启示.     

技术移民、寻租与经济增长

发展中国家向外的技术移民会影响其经济绩效,但这种影响并不是单一的。本文构造了一个内生的职业选择模型,如果个体在从事寻租活动和从事生产性活动之间进行职业选择,且生产性技能更适合移民,那么一个向寻租更少的发达国家移民的前景会减少原籍国寻租活动的相对预期收益,这势必降低个体选择寻租职业的吸引力,原籍国这种国内人才配置改善的收益可能超过人才流失的损失。然而,一旦考虑到内生性保护,移民的有益影响可能被削弱,甚至移民有益论不再成立。在内生性保护下,如果移民概率取决于人力资本积累,那么熟练劳动力流出对原籍国有害,移民的说教效应消失。     

海外高层次人才创新创业政策研究:政策工具与创新创业过程视角

在全球人才流动加速的知识经济时代,中央和地方政府相继颁布了一系列鼓励海外高层次人才创新创业的政策。通过构建政策工具—创新创业过程二维框架,以浙江省“九五”至“十三五”期间颁布的海外人才政策为研究对象,采用内容分析法和扎根理论编码进行统计分析。研究发现：浙江省海外高层次人才政策数量增长迅速,从“十五”至“十三五”开局之年政策数量呈明显上升趋势;政策发文主体较多,但协调性较弱,浙江省财政厅是重要联合发文主体;从政策工具维度而言,供给类和环境类政策过溢、需求类政策偏少;创新创业准备阶段缺乏环境型政策,起步阶段缺乏供给型政策,发展阶段缺乏需求型政策。最后,提出优化海外高层次人才政策的对策建议。     

二代海外特征对家族企业组合创业的影响：代际冲突视角

基于代际冲突视角,结合烙印理论,以2000—2017年297家二代介入企业高层的家族企业为样本,探讨二代海外特征对家族企业组合创业的影响。研究发现,当家族二代介入企业高层后,二代具有海外经历的家族企业更倾向于选择组合创业;随着二代海外时间的增加,企业组合创业意愿随之增强,且这种影响在二代家族企业内任职时间更短、父辈行业地位更高的企业中更加显著。相比海外教育时长,二代海外工作时长更能促进家族企业组合创业;二代海外国家或地区为非亚洲区域的家族企业更倾向于组合创业。该结论可丰富传承情景下家族企业组合创业影响因素研究,为中国情景下企业高层管理者海外特征对企业战略行为的影响提供借鉴。     

Rural-urban migration,urban unemployment and underemployment,and job-search activity in LDCs

A quantity adjustment framework is used to analyze unemployment and underemployment in less developed countries (LDCs). The basic premise of the formal theoretical model presented is that the same kinds of forces that explain the choices of workers between the rural and urban sectors can also explain thier choices between 1 labor market and another within an urban area and are most likely made simultaneously. The decision makers, whether family units or individuals, are presumed to consider the various labor market opportunities available to them and to choose the one which maximizes their expected future income. In the model the primary equilibrating force is taken to be the movement of workers between labor markets, not changes in wages. The point of departure is the received theory of rural urban migration in LDS, which is the model of Harris and Todaro (1970). The 1st step is a summary of the basic features of the model. While accepting their basic approach emphasizing movement of workers rather than changes in wages, it is shown that the particular implication of the model with respect to the equilibrium urban unemployment rate substantially overstates the rates actually observed by Turnham (1971) and others. The analysis is then extended to consider several important factors which have previously been neglected--a more generalized approach to the job search process, the possibility of underemployment in the so-called urban "murky sector," preferential treatment by employers of the better educated, and consideration of labor turnover--and demonstrate that the resulting framework gives predictions closer to actual experience. Harris and Todaro in their original discussion concluded that a combination of a wage subsidy in the modern sector and physical restriction of migration would be required to realize a first best state lying on the economy's production possibility frontier. Subsequently Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1974) challenged them and demonstrated that a first best solution can be achieved by means of a variety of alternative tax or subsidy schemes, none of which require migration restriction. This analysis suggests 3 additional policy variables, beyond those considered by either pair, which might be expected to have an important effect on the volume of unemployment and underemployment in LDCs: a smoothly functioning labor exchange would reduce the incentive to remain unemployed while searching for a superior job; the size of the educational system would also influence the amount of unemployment; and it is job hiring in the modern sector, more than the number of jobs, which primarily influences workers' locational decisions.