Taiwan's Industrial Policy in the 1980s: An Appraisal

In the early 1980s, Taiwan embarked on a development programme designed to shift the economy away from reliance on labour-intensive industries towards the development of technology-intensive products and industries. While continuing to pursue ongoing trade liberalization, the government simultaneously adopted a sectoral policy of identifying and promoting “strategic industries” in order to further industrial development and restructure industry. This assessment suggests that the success of this strategy has at best been debatable.     

从产业政策到产业链政策:“链时代”产业发展的战略选择

产业政策的诞生、演进、转型、创新和发展受政府职能转变、国际规则对接、时代发展变化、企业需求调整等因素的影响。在构建新发展格局背景下,这些因素也在发生变化,要求产业政策进行适应性调整和升级。从全球范围来看,产业政策制定正在成为一项不可忽视的全球现象,国际产业竞争正在从产品竞争升级到产业链群之间的竞争,主要经济体纷纷出台政策措施加强对产业链供应链的“国家干预”,产业链成为世界各国战略竞争主战场。我国在推动产业政策转型创新的同时,需要更加关注实施产业链政策,增强产业政策制定的“链式思维”和系统思维,尽快制定更具系统性和更有针对性的产业链政策方案,“强基、韧链、优企、提效”,统筹推进产业基础高级化、产业链安全稳定、竞争力提升和现代化升级。     

产业政策与金融:台湾地区发展经验

后进国家或地区常藉由产业政策推动经济发展,但产业政策是否能有效执行,政治基础的支持与金融体系的配合至关重要。文章先由"发展型国家"理论的文献着手,梳理出产业、金融与政治三者的密切关系,再从台湾地区的发展经验出发,说明公权力部门是如何运用金融体系推动产业发展。在20世纪80年代中期以前,由于实行威权统治与金融管制,台湾地区当局遂能排除社会的干扰,将资金引导至计划发展之产业,从而主导了工业化的发展。在20世纪80年代中期以后,随着台湾地区政治民主化与金融自由化的发展,商业利益开始介入政策过程,企业取得资金的渠道也日渐多元,公权力部门主导产业发展的能力减弱,由主导逐渐转变为协调与配合的角色。     

关于上海新一轮发展中的产业政策

本文主要从产业政策有效性的角度来分析上海新一轮发展中的产业政策导向，建议对目前以选择和扶持优先发展产业为主要内容的产业政策加以重新思考和调整。     

产业全球化及其对中国产业发展的影响

产业全球化是经济全球化的重要内容和组成部分,其动力来自于由跨国公司的全球化战略所推动的一体化国际生产体系的形成与发展,其结果则不仅深化了当代国际分工的形式和内容,更丰富和加剧了产业国际竞争的形式与程度。本文从产业全球化的内涵界定入手,分析了产业全球化的特征与显著指标、产业特征与产业全球化程度的相互关系,进而讨论由此对中国产业发展的若干启示。     

促进西藏产业发展的财税政策研究

由于发展经济的自然条件恶劣,西藏经济比较落后,中央对西藏的发展一直予以高度重视,实行特殊的优惠政策,尤其是1994年以来,利用倾斜财税政策的调节导向作用,加强生态环境建设,加快基础设施投资,完善公共服务设施,优化升级产业结构,培育西藏经济发展的支柱产业,推动了西藏经济的跨越式发展。     

Trends in the Male-Female Wage Gap: The 1980s Compared with the 1970s

Despite a more rapid increase in female work behavior in the 1970s than in the 1980s, the male-female wage gap in the 1970s narrowed one-eighth as quickly as in the 1980s. This paper uses 1972 through 1988 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data to explain why women's wages rose less quickly in the 1970s. It illustrates how new female labor market entrants in the 1970s brought down mean female wages, thereby driving down female wage growth. This decline played itself out in the 1980s as the relative growth in female labor market entrants diminished and as the proportion of women's potential work years actually worked increased.     

京津冀协同发展:河北的产业结构调整

产业融合是京津冀协同发展的基础条件和重要任务。目前,河北产业结构不合理的问题仍然突出,影响了京津冀产业对接与融合的步伐。应抓住京津冀协同发展的重大机遇,结合自身产业基础及比较优势,充分利用京津优势资源和市场空间,加快农业发展方式转变和工业结构转型升级,提高服务业发展层次和水平,实现产业竞争力的整体提升。     

Policy responses to major disturbances of the 1970s and their transmission through international goods and capital markets

Zusammenfassung Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktionen auf die wichtigsten St?rungen in den 70er Jahren und ihre übertragung durch die internationalen Waren- und Kapitalm?rkte. — In diesem Aufsatz werden die wichtigsten St?rungen untersucht, die die acht gr?\ten Industriel?nder in den 70er Jahren betroffen haben, sowie die binnen- und au\enwirtschaftlichen Ziele dieser L?nder, ihre wirtschafts- und zahlungsbilanzpolitischen Gegenma\nahmen und die Reaktionen des Marktes auf St?rungen und wirtschaftspolitische Ma\nahmen. Es zeigt sich, da\ die Wirtschaftspolitik und die Reaktion des Marktes die expansiven Wirkungen des Dollarabflusses in den Jahren 1971–72 verst?rkten, weil dieser sich in einem zyklischen Tief ereignete. Andererseits wurde durch sie die kontraktive Wirkung der ?lpreiserh?hung von 1974 gemildert, da diese nach einem zyklischen Hoch eintrat. Au\erdem werden in diesem Aufsatz die Wirkungen flexibler Wechselkurse bewertet, und zwar mit unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen, weil man sich zu sehr auf die Wirkungen flexibler Kurse verlassen hat.

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Résumé Les réponses de politique aux perturbations majeures des années soixante-dix et leur transmission par les biens internationaux et les marchés des capitaux. — L’article examine les perturbations majeures qui affectuaient les huit pays les plus industrialisés pendant les années de soixante-dix, leurs buts internes et externes de politique, leurs réactions macroéconomiques et de politique de balance des paiements, et les réponses de marché à ces perturbations et politiques. Nous concluons que les politiques économiques et les réponses de marché magnifiaient les effets expansionnistes de l’émanation de dollar 1971–72 parce qu’il se passait pendant un creux cyclique d’une vague. Les réponses politiques et de marchés affaiblissaient l’impact contractionniste de l’augmentation de 1974 prix de pétrole, comme il se passait après un sommet cyclique. Nous évaluons les effets des taux de change flottants et trouvons des résultats mixtes, parce qu’on a placé trop de confiance en eux.

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Resumen Respuestas de politica a las perturbaciones más importantes de los a?os 1970 y su transmisión a través de bienes internacionales y de mercados de capitales. — En este artículo se examinan las perturbaciones más importantes que han afectado a los ocho países industrializados más grandes durante el decenio de 1970, sus objetivos de política interna y externa, sus reacciones macroeconómicas y de balanza de pagos y las respuestas del mercado a estas perturbaciones y políticas. Se concluye que estas políticas económicas y respuestas del mercado magnificaron los efectos expansivos de la evasión de dólares entre 1971 y 72, porque coincidió con un valle cíclico. Las políticas y respuestas del mercado amortiguaron el impacto de contracción del aumento de precios del petróleo de 1974, debido a que vino después de un alto ciclico. Se evalúan los efectos de tasas de cambio flotantes y se encuentra que han tenido un resultado ambiguo, porque se ha confiado demasiado en ellas.

     

Industrial Policy and Global Big Business Revolution: the Case of the Chinese Coal Industry1

China has actively implemented an industrial policy during the last two decades. However, despite important progress, the overall result is rather disappointing. Should China continue to pursue industrial policy? Should China focus instead on developing successful globally competitive firms within the global value chain? This paper, based on an in-depth case study on the Shenhua Group, which has been deliberately built as an indigenous globally competitive coal corporation, argues that it is still possible for China to build powerful big businesses in some sectors. However, a well-designed industrial policy is necessary.     

Keeping Up with the Jones': Decentralization,Policy Imitation,and Industrial Development in China

Decentralization is often hailed as a means of improving economic policy because it improves the flexibility of policy-making. This article explains why arguments in favor of decentralization, and in particular, theories of market-preserving federalism, may be overstated in this respect. Although economic decentralization may change the incentives of local officials overnight, the impact of local-center relations on the political and economic institutions of a locality is cumulative. The article uses the Chinese auto sector to demonstrate how local institutional arrangements hinder policy change despite decentralization. Local obstacles to change were only overcome by increased international competition.     

Expansion of the economic frontier: Paraguayan growth in the 1970s

The rapid growth of the Paraguayan economy over the last decade is analyzed in terms of the expansion of agricultural production and an increase in construction activity. Construction of the Itaipu Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, has provided employment and spurred private construction. A government colonization programme and spontaneous Brazilian immigration has brought new land into production. Favourable international prices for Paraguayan exports and funds from the Itaipu project swelled foreign reserves and served to maintain the Paraguayan currency at an already overvalued rate. The paper argues that the overvaluation, combined with extensive smuggling, undermined incentives for investment in manufacturing and deprived the government of revenues needed to finance infrastructure for sustained economic growth and development.     

The Sources of Industrial Leadership: A Perspective on Industrial Policy

This essay reports on a historical study of the evolution of seven major high-tech industries. The aim was to identify key factors leading to the emergence of industrial leadership. A few lessons have come to the fore. First, firms that become dominant on world markets first became strong in their home market. Second, important sources of comparative advantage often reside in sectoral support systems e.g. a university especially strong in organic chemistry. As to the debate about industrial policy, history shows many instances that support the case for targeted support. On the other hand, we should not ignore that the success of industrial policy depends to a large extent on the interaction between firms and the relevant government agencies.     

1978年以来的农村金融体制改革:政策演变与路径分析

1978年以来农村金融体制改革经历了以农业银行为主体、以农村信用社为基础、非正规金融为补充的金融体系初步形成和以农村信用社改革为主体、政策性金融和商业性金融相互分工、非正规金融受到压制、正规金融体系得以深化的两个阶段。农村金融体制改革,是政府主导型的强制性制度变迁,沿袭正规金融体系及机构,压制非正规金融的诱致性制度变迁,忽视金融机构的基本功能,具有显著的路径依赖特征。应结合两种变迁方式,逐渐转变到以诱致性变迁为主的路径。农村金融改革迈向现代化的过程中,需要多样化多层次的制度供给。