ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

We examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.     

国际商品价格波动与中国出口贸易的能源成本:一个实证分析

中国的出口贸易面临着国际市场能源价格快速上涨与工业品价格滞涨的双重压力。本文对2002—2007年中国出口商品所包含的能源成本进行的估算发现,以2002年不变价计算的能源成本在5年间增长了7.53倍。与此对应,能源成本在中国出口总额中所占的比例从2002年的8.4%上升到了2007年的21.2%。通过计算价格弹性发现,国际市场上能源相对价格的波动是引起我国能源成本率上升的主要因素。能源成本快速上升大大降低了我国出口商品的利润空间,表明我国的外贸质量在下降,这主要是由国际市场进出口价格体系以及我国出口商品结构不合理所造成的。     

THE IMPACT OF CLEAN FUEL SPECIFICATIONS ON ADELAIDE RETAIL PETROL PRICES*

In March 2001, the South Australian Government introduced a clean fuel policy which it claimed was designed to protect air quality. This paper quantifies the policy's impact on relative Adelaide retail prices for unleaded petrol through Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average methodology coupled with Box and Tiao intervention analysis. The analysis uses weekly price data spanning from January 2000 until the beginning of June 2002. It finds the clean fuel policy had a statistically significant impact on relative retail petrol prices, resulting in an increase of almost 1.9 cents per litre and, therefore, costing Adelaide motorists around an extra $15.8 million per annum. Based on claims that the quality of fuel produced by the local Adelaide refiner did not change in response to the implementation of the clean fuel policy, the paper concludes that the increase in relative retail petrol prices was most likely associated with the exercise of market power rather than an increase in refinery production costs.     

TESTS OF UNIT ROOTS AND COINTEGRATION HYPOTHESES IN ECONOMETRIC MODELS*

A number of statistical procedures for testing the unit roots hypotheses and the cointegration hypothesis have been proposed by statisticians and econometricians. This paper unifies many of the previous studies on unit roots tests and cointegration tests in the framework of a multivariate regression model and develops some new test statistics. We give a convenient quadratic representation of the limiting distributions of test statistics using stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motions. The test procedures in this paper include the statistics for testing the unit root, the double unit roots, the seasonal unit roots, and the cointegrating relations for special cases. We also discuss some useful generalizations of unit roots tests and cointegration tests for empirical studies.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES AND RENTS

This paper develops a theoretical model of price and rent determination in the commercial property market. Prices and rents are assumed to adjust to ensure market clearing. A series of theoretical relationships are derived between prices and rents and a number of exogenous variables. These are then subjected to empirical testing for three types of property: industrial property, shops and offices. The results indicate employment is an important influence on price, especially for industrial property. In most cases, price and rent are also found to be sensitive to interest rates and residential property values.     

EFFECTS OF TAXES AND BENEFITS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN KOREA

This paper examines the redistributive effects of Korea's fiscal policies, including consumption taxes and in‐kind benefits. Using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2007, we find that taxes and transfers reduce income inequality in Korea by 13.8 percent. Contrary to the popular belief that direct taxes are the key tool for redistribution, in‐kind benefits, direct taxes, and social security contributions all decrease the Gini coefficient by 6.7, 4.7, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. The redistributive effect of consumption taxes is small and negative (?0.5 percentage point). Policy simulations indicate that education spending financed by the personal income tax has a positive redistributive effect and that the lower 70 percent of households enjoy positive net benefits. Spending targeting the poor has a strong redistributive effect, which implies low popularity because the majority of households face net losses.     

上市公司股价与经理人薪酬合同设计

在成熟规范市场,由于股票价格长期看能比较准确地反映企业的市场价值,所以股票价格可作为经理人的长期和综合的业绩度量指标。股票价格的主要激励工具为经理人期权和限制性股权,期权作为股票价格的非线性合同,能够带来更强的激励效率,适用于能力较高的经理人和质量较差的项目。     

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE PRICES AND COMPARISONS OF NATIONAL AGGREGATE PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURE

"The whole question of making inter-spatial comparisons between countries is a most complicated and hazardous business" (Mr. Campion); international comparisons of a particular value aggregate between countries present a difficult problem connected with the conversion of national value aggregates into a comparable magnitude. This paper presents an alternative approach in that an internationally comparable value aggregate for each country is prepared by the international average prices of commodities which are determined simultaneously with the partial exchange rates of national currencies to a standard currency. The calculated partial exchange rates are so defined as to reflect the purchasing power of national currencies in respect of the group of commodities selected. Consequently, the resulting value aggregate for international comparison has a quantity dimension, eliminating the effect due to the different purchasing power of national currencies in which original prices are quoted. The other methods of international comparison so far being used by other research workers, such as C. Clerk and M. Gilbert and his associates, are examined in the light of the properties of the present method and the crucial differences are delineated. Using the method proposed, an international comparison is made of the aggregate value of agricultural products for 11 selected countries in the world, with sub-divisions into two regions.     

THE BUILT-IN FLEXIBILITY OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION TAXES IN NEW ZEALAND

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in New Zealand, based on the 2001 tax structure and expenditure patterns. Using analytical expressions for revenue elasticities at the individual and aggregate levels, together with a simulated income distribution, values for New Zealand were obtained. Results using equi-proportional income changes suggest that the aggregate income and consumption tax revenue elasticities are both fairly constant as mean income increases, at around 1.3 and 0.95 respectively. This latter estimate assumes that increases in disposable income are accompanied by approximately proportional increases in total expenditure. If there is a tendency for the savings proportion to increase as disposable income increases, a somewhat lower total consumption tax revenue elasticity, of around 0.9, is obtained for 2001 income levels. However, non-equiproportional income changes are more realistic. Allowing for regression towards the geometric mean income reduces these elasticities, giving an elasticity for income and consumption taxes combined that is only slightly above unity. Examination of the tax-share weighted expenditure elasticities for various goods also revealed that, despite the adoption of a broad based GST at a uniform rate in New Zealand, the persistence of various excises has an important effect on the overall consumption tax revenue elasticity, especially for individuals at relatively low income levels.     

BARGAINING OVER TAXES AND ENTITLEMENTS IN THE ERA OF UNEQUAL GROWTH

Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: “unequal growth,” where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a “status quo effect.” In a model calibrated to the United States, we show that sustained bargaining power by a party representing the poor results in a rising share of entitlements consistent with the data.