CHRISTIANITY, THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE LIMITS TO HUMAN KNOWLEDGE

At one time, the prevailing view amongst Christian clergy in Britain would have been sympathetic towards the spontaneous order of the market economy and not sympathetic towards socialism. The spontaneous order, would, of course, have included the rich tapestry of philanthropic organisations and mutual societies that used to provide welfare for the poor. The clergy today are not generally sympathetic towards the market order. An understanding of Austrian ideas takes us to the view that, at the very least, socialist rationalism is the common enemy of Christians and those who support a free market order.     

THE ECONOMY AT A TURNING POINT

In this Forecast Release we assess the evidence from the economic indicators and the latest official statistics for the view that the economy is at a turning point. We conclude that, while last year's rapid decline in UK output is coming to an end, a broadly-based recovery of the UK economy is unlikely until the world economy starts to grow again. The business surveys suggest that the upturn in European economy is less well established than the UK recovery. It may also be delayed further by high interest rates. The world turning point is thus likely to be some months later than die UK turning point, despite the strong upswing in the US. This implies that the UK recovery could be somewhat hesitant in the coming months.     

THE WORLD OUTLOOK

The upturn in economic activity in the world economy now looks to be rather stronger than previously expected this year and in 1995. It is the strength of recovery in Europe that gives this more optimistic tone without any signs of the added inflationary pressure that financial markets fear.     

THE WORLD OUTLOOK

The upturn in economic activity in the world economy now looks to be rather stronger than previously expected this year and in 1995. It is the strength of recovery in Europe that gives this more optimistic tone without any signs of the added inflationary pressure that financial markets fear.     

基于全球经济一体化的我国企业战略联盟思考

随着全球经济一体化步伐的加快，加入全球经济一体化的进程对中国来说是机遇更是挑战，中国如何抓住有机机遇，开展与其他各国的竞争合作是我国经济发展中的重要课题。实施战略联盟是其有效选择。本文就中国企业实施战略联盟所应注意的有关问题进行了探讨。     

提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力的研究

随着世界经济结构调整步伐的加快和经济全球化带来的全球产业重心从制造业向服务业转移,服务贸易在国际经贸领域中日益引起人们的高度重视,它不仅是影响各国经济发展的重要力量,也成为衡量一国国际竞争力的一项重要标准.本文分析了影响服务贸易提高国际竞争力的相关因素,提出了提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力的对策.     

论我国如何防范经济滞涨风险

受国际金融危机的影响,我国经济发展面临挑战;而同时物价在短期回调后又呈快速上扬态势。目前世界经济的发展态势也不明朗。因此,现阶段我国存在一定的经济滞涨隐患。要预防滞涨的发生,应注意多项政策配合使用,应采取多种措施拉动居民消费,调整经济结构,加速各项制度改革,要灵活运用财政货币政策,并改善人民币汇率机制。     

THE MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium-term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985-6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.     

爱国主义教育在高校形势与政策课教学中的实施策略

进入二十一世纪以来,信息化、网络化、经济全球化使我国经济高速发展,多数人民过上了幸福快乐的生活。但物质世界的高速发展,也对人们的理想信念带来了冲击,"爱国主义"思想意识淡薄。大学生是国家的未来和希望,是社会主义事业的建设者和接班人。突出大学形势政策课的"爱国主义"教育,对于在大学生中弘扬民族精神,树立正确的世界观、人生观、价值观具有积极重要的作用。     

Globalization and business cycle transmission

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison [Maddison, A. (2003). The world economy—Historical statistics. Paris: OECD Development Centre] to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870–1914), the period of the “bloc economy” (1915–1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960–2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross-correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.     

论市场经济条件下的宏观与微观经济间的关系

随着经济全球化的发展,传统意义上的宏观经济观念已经有所变化,它已经超越了一个国家,甚至一个地区而具有世界的意义。同样,微观的内涵也大大丰富了,超越了过去的微观。对于社会主义国家来说,微观已不是原有的国家和集体企业了,股份制和个体企业的大量出现使微观领域更加复杂了。全球经济结构产权私有化、经营专业化和公用事业竞争化。把国家干预与市场调节结合起来,使宏观经济与微观经济逐步协调、融合,已成为经济发展的一种必然趋势。     

县域金融支持县域经济发展的若干思考

郡县治,天下安。司马迁《史记》认为:"县集而郡,郡集而天下,郡县治,天下无不治。"县域涵盖城镇与乡村,具有承上启下、沟通条块以及连接城乡的枢纽作用。由于县域不仅有农业,还有非农业,因此,不仅是宏观和微观以及城市和农村的结合部,更是统筹城乡发展的关键载体。由于县域经济在联结城乡经济中起到了桥梁和纽带的作用,从而在我国的国民经济体系中占有十分重要的地位。加大县域金融对县域经济的支持力度,对于实现国家"十二五"规划的战略目标以及加快全面建设小康社会的进程具有十分重要的意义。     

The London Business School with Gower WORLD OUTLOOK

Although there are indications that the world economy is beginning to emerge from recession, the early stages of recovery are turning out to be extremely weak and industry worldwide has still not recorded any significant advance. Consequently business planners are now having to take account of the possibility that there will be no recovery during 1982 or even that the world will enter a prolonged downturn. We discuss these scenarios here and indicate why we consider them unlikely; our central forecast remains that the world economy will enter a recovery phase towards the end of 1982 and grow strongly in 1983-84.     

On the equivalence of location choice models: Conditional logit, nested logit and Poisson

It is well understood that the two most popular empirical models of location choice - conditional logit and Poisson - return identical coefficient estimates when the regressors are not individual specific. We show that these two models differ starkly in terms of their implied predictions. The conditional logit model represents a zero-sum world, in which one region’s gain is the other regions’ loss. In contrast, the Poisson model implies a positive-sum economy, in which one region’s gain is no other region’s loss. We also show that all intermediate cases can be represented as a nested logit model with a single outside option. The nested logit turns out to be a linear combination of the conditional logit and Poisson models. Conditional logit and Poisson elasticities mark the polar cases and can therefore serve as boundary values in applied research.     

AN INFRA-SURFER'S PARADISE: RIDING THE CREST OF THE LAND - VALUE WAVE

The author devoted his working life to adding wealth to the nation. Now, to expose the damage caused by taxes to the enterprise economy, he is an accredited Infra-surfer. And as he triangulates between deals in St Petersburg, up-state New York and the coast of Spain, he finds himself slipping into a dream-like world of virtual reality…     

Work in Roman Catholic Thought

This essay examines the idea of work in the Catholic social tradition. Following introductory comments about the Christian vision of work found in the writings of St. Paul and other early Christian authors, the essay provides seven claims as a summary of how work is treated in modern Catholic social teaching. Based on those summary claims, a vision of what good work in the Catholic tradition looks like is then developed. Finally, the phenomenon of the “gig economy” is presented as a contemporary threat to the meaning of good work.     

Monetary Targets and the World Economy

The dominant obsessions to watchers of the world economy at the moment are the weakness of the US dollar and the fear that the world economy is stagnating. In this ‘Briefing Paper’ we seek to put both events into the same intellectual framework, and to show that they are the consequence of monetary policies which are not logically related to each other, nor to a common objective of bringing world inflation steadily down to an acceptable level. Specifically, the US - which for reasons outlined below can warrant monetary growth rather below the world average if it is to preserve some dollar stability - is showing an above average outturn in its monetary aggregates. Germany and Japan, which can accommodate increases well above the average, are in fact adopting monetary targets which are leading to exchange rate appreciation, arid a reduction in both countries' expectations for real growth. The dangers for the world economy in this situation are very serious, particularly at a time when further dollar devaluation could be risky both from the viewpoint of US inflation wide the dollar's role as the key reserve asset. It could lead at worst to US protectionism and a monetaryled recession, rein forcing the slow growth rates already being widely predicted in 1978 for many other industrial countries. However, we show in this ‘Briefing Paper’ that this is not a necessity outcome of the present situation, given three vital perceptions. The first, required by statesmen as much as by technicians. is that the recent stagnation in European & Japanese output and exchange rate instability are essentially a monetary phenomenon, requiring essentially monetary (rather than fiscal) remedies. The second is acceptance of the need and practicability of some monetary consignation, based on reasonably common objectives among the major countries regarding inflation, bands for exchange rate movement and red rates of growth. the third, at the most practical level, is agreement on the actual monetary numbers which broadly reconcile these objectives and also take account of the very different ‘unwanted’ rates of monetary growth between countries which reflect their different underlying conditions of output, productivity and demand for money. It is the (ambitious) aim of this ‘Briefing Paper’ to substantiate these perceptions and to provide the numbers mound which a consideration of monetary policies can be framed. The numbers are necessarily based on trends established over a number of years and need to be supplemented by detailed understanding of each country's financial status But the monetary targets provided do, in our judgement, embody trade-offs between inflation, growth and exchange rate movements which should broadly satisfy national ambitions, and reset the world economy on a worthwhile growth path during 1978 or 1979.     

论会计诚信的缺失及其防治对策

"诚信为本,操守为重。坚持准则,不做假帐"。这是原国务院总理朱镕基在视察国家会计学院时,对会计从业人员提出的要求和希望。会计工作的好坏,会计资料的真假,都直接与会计人员的素质相联系。随着世界经济的飞速发展和全球信息的一体化,我国会计行业面临着新的机遇与挑战,会计诚信的缺失已经成为一个严重的社会问题。本文主要围绕会计诚信是对会计人员的一项基本素质要求展开论述,通过分析引起会计诚信缺失的种种原因,提出防治对策。     

POPULATION AND THE ECONOMY DURING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The changes in population structure currently taking place in both developed and less‐developed nations are part of a very long‐term trend of demographic change that has yet to run its full course. The starting point of this trend is the complete rearrangement of demographic regimes characterised by significant declines in mortality coupled with widespread fertility control. This process started in a small group of European and non‐European societies during the nineteenth century and by the second half of the twentieth century had spread to much of the world. It has brought with it significant economic and social implications for societies affected which have differed by the timing of the transition but not in their basic thrust. Eventually the demographic transition promises to bring with it very rapid and widespread ageing and, within a few decades, world population decline. Some of the long‐term economic implications of this entire process are discussed in this article.     

God and green: Investigating the impact of religiousness on green marketing

As the population increases, more people are now aware of the impact of their consumption on the natural environment. Nonetheless, 1 important factor that is often neglected is religiousness. Studies of the impact of religiousness on individual behavior have become increasingly important because the majority of the world population belongs to 1 of the major world religions. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of consumers' religiousness toward proenvironmental identity, attitudes toward environmental issues, and subjective norms about the environment. Subsequently, this study investigates the impact of these variables on purchase intention of green products. Using sampling from Indonesia (n = 649), which has the largest Muslim population, the results show significant differences between religions. In general, similar findings were found in both samples of Muslim and Christian consumers, where intrinsic religiousness has a positive impact on proenvironmental identity, attitudes towards environmental issues, and subjective norms about the environment. The study also found that the 3 variables (proenvironmental identity, attitudes towards environmental issues, and subjective norms) are positive determinants of intention to purchase green products. Nevertheless, the role of extrinsic religiousness is different for the 2 samples. Extrinsic religiousness is negatively related to attitude towards environmental issues for Muslim consumers, where it has a positive influence on proenvironmental identity among Christian consumers. The results of this study have significant implications not only to managers but also religious leaders on how to encourage more positive attitudes toward the environment.