Do banks price their informational monopoly?

Theory suggests that banks’ private information lets them hold up borrowers for higher interest rates. Since new information about a firm is revealed at the time of its bond IPO, it follows that banks will be forced to adjust their loan interest rates downwards after firms undertake their bond IPO. We test this hypothesis and find that firms are able to borrow at lower interest rates after their bond IPO. Importantly, firms that get their first credit rating at the time of their bond IPO benefit from larger interest rate savings than those that already had a credit rating. These findings provide support for the hypothesis that banks price their informational monopoly. We also find that it is costly for firms to enter the public bond market.     

Underwriters’ price support regulation and institutional investors’ trading: The case of the putback option

We examine a period in Korea during which a price supporting regulation called the putback option was imposed on the IPO underwriter. Under the regulation, individual investors of IPO had put options which can be exercised at 90% of IPO price. We find that during the regulation period, institutional investors’ flipping activity is evident not on the days following the IPO but on the days following the expiration of putback option. Our study shows that the regulation results in merely delaying the institutional investors’ documented trading behavior and provides evidence that the relationship between the underwriter and the institutional investors affects the trading of institutional investors.     

The oversight role of regulators: evidence from SEC comment letters in the IPO process

This study investigates how regulatory oversight affects the price formation of initial public offerings (IPOs). We provide evidence on the oversight role of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by examining the effects of comment letters issued by the SEC in the process through which companies are initially listed. We find that IPO issuers reduce their offer price if they receive comment letters. The reduction in price from the IPO filing date to the final issue date is greater when the IPO firm has more correspondence with the SEC. The pricing impact of SEC comment letters is more pronounced for IPO issuers with greater hyping incentives. Moreover, we find that IPO firms that receive more comment letters have similar levels of underpricing and outperform over the long run after the issue date, compared with IPOs with fewer comment letters.     

Implied Default Probability and Credit Derivatives

Recently many kinds of credit derivatives are traded in the market. The default probability implied in the market becomes important to price some credit derivatives. Also it is useful for managing the credit risk because it includes the market information. In this paper we show how to calculate the implied default probability in the default swap market or the defaultable bond market.This paper is developed from author’s master thesis (Matsumoto, 2000), Graduate School of Systems Management, the University of Tsukuba.     

合资承销商影响新股破发率的实证研究

新股破发是目前中国股市目前面临的一个重要现象。本文基于2004年至2010年上市的A股IPO,研究合资承销商对新股破发率的影响。研究发现,合资承销商所承销的新股破发率显著低于本土承销商。合资承销商的低破发率主要归功于更加有效且符合市场预期的一级市场发行定价能力,其表现为合资承销商发行的股票的短期市场价格相对发行价的偏离程度显著低于本土承销商发行的股票。另外,我们还发现合资承销商采取了一定的托市行为,该行为也减小了短期内新股跌破发行价的概率。本文的发现从新股发行的角度提供了开放金融市场对我国资本市场影响的新现象。     

Are share price levels informative? Evidence from the ownership, pricing, turnover and performance of IPO firms

We ask whether a firm's choice of IPO price is informative in the sense that it relates systematically to the firm's other choices and characteristics. We find that both institutional ownership and underwriter reputation increases monotonically with the chosen IPO price level. We also find that the relationship between IPO price and underpricing is U-shaped. In contrast, post-IPO turnover displays an inverted U-shaped relation to IPO price. Moreover, firms choosing a higher (lower) stock price level experience lower (higher) mortality rates. Our results are robust to controls for market liquidity and firm size, and for partial adjustment of IPO prices based on pre-market information.     

Syndicate structure and IPO outcomes: The impact of underwriter roles and syndicate concentration

We examine how the composition and concentration of the underwriting syndicate affects outcomes in U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) from 2002 to 2020. Most IPOs now feature “phantom” lead managers who underwrite significantly fewer shares than the lead-left bookrunner. We hypothesize that the phantom lead is the result of bargaining between issuers wanting greater information production and lead-left bookrunners preferring greater control of the IPO. Larger, less concentrated IPO syndicates feature more absolute price adjustments from the filing price during bookbuilding with downward revisions on average, and more analyst following post-IPO. The magnitude of price adjustments is greater when adding active joint leads relative to passive phantom leads. More concentrated IPOs feature higher first-day returns following positive price adjustments. Adding lead managers reduces the likelihood the lead-left will retain that role in follow-on equity offerings.     

Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina

This paper extracts both the implied default recovery ratio and the risk-neutral default probability term structure for Russian Federation and Republic of Argentina US dollar Eurobonds during the 1998 Russian default crisis. This crisis provides a unique window into the impact of changing default probabilities and recovery ratio assumptions on credit-sensitive sovereign bond prices. For the Russian Eurobonds, the sample paths suggest a two-phase crisis revaluation. Shifts in default probabilities account for most of the initial price collapse. Marked decreases in the implied default recovery ratio dominate the second phase. Investors never cut their recovery value assumptions for Argentine debt.     

Economy-wide bond default rates: A maximum expected utility approach

We consider the 12-month moving average aggregate default rate of S&P-rated US-bonds. We estimate the conditional probability distribution of this default rate as a function of a weighted average bond rating, a lagged default rate and a preliminary predictor that is based on lagged new issuance. Our modeling approach is asymptotically optimal for an expected utility maximizing investor. The resulting conditional probability density is consistent with our intuition. We measure the model’s performance by the out-of-sample expected utility. According to this measure, our model clearly outperforms a simple regression model, a regression model with ARMA error terms and a Poisson model.     

Did going public impair Moody׳s credit ratings?

We investigate a prominent allegation in congressional hearings that Moody?s loosened its rating standards to chase revenue after it went public in 2000. Consistent with this allegation, Moody?s ratings for both corporate bonds and structured finance products are significantly more favorable to issuers, relative to S&P?s, after Moody?s IPO. Moreover, Moody?s ratings are more favorable for clients subject to greater conflict of interest. There is little evidence that Moody?s higher ratings, post-IPO, are more informative, measured as expected default frequencies (EDFs) or as the probability of default. Our findings inform the debate on whether financial gatekeepers should be publicly traded.     

A Shortcut Way of Pricing Default Risk Through Zero-Utility Principle

Pricing the default risk is a hot challenge for every risk manager. The problem is tackled in the framework of the zero‐utility principle. According to Pratt (1964) , an approximation of the risk premium should be proportional to the Arrow–Pratt absolute risk aversion coefficient and the variance. Is that still true as a default risk is concerned? The answer appears to be negative, because the variance does not look to be an appropriate tool for asymmetrical risk. On the other hand, fear of ruin coefficient and probability of default are proved to be well‐tailored tools for a preliminary pricing. Bid and ask price approximations are both elicited and a necessary condition for risk exchange set out.     

Liquidity and Credit Risk

We develop a structural bond valuation model to simultaneously capture liquidity and credit risk. Our model implies that renegotiation in financial distress is influenced by the illiquidity of the market for distressed debt. As default becomes more likely, the components of bond yield spreads attributable to illiquidity increase. When we consider finite maturity debt, we find decreasing and convex term structures of liquidity spreads. Using bond price data spanning 15 years, we find evidence of a positive correlation between the illiquidity and default components of yield spreads as well as support for downward‐sloping term structures of liquidity spreads.     

Sovereign defaults by currency denomination

This paper explores the drivers of sovereign default in 100 countries over the period 1996–2012. We build a new data set of sovereign defaults and find that default events for local and foreign currency bonds are equally likely. However, governments default under different economic and financial conditions depending on the currency in which bonds are issued. The explained variation in default probability rises from 43% to 62% when we account for differences in currency denomination. We also provide evidence that global factors and market sentiment, which are known to drive sovereign spreads, do not help explain the probability of sovereign default. Hence, these factors appear to affect the price of sovereign credit risk, although not the risk itself.     

Credit ratings and convertible bond prices: a simulation-based valuation

This study presents a simulation-based model of convertible bond prices under the assumption of stochastic interest rates. The model is developed such that the convertible bond price explicitly depends on the credit rating at the time of issuance. Key ideas explored in this study include terminating the simulated sample path immediately when the issuer defaults on the bond at time t, which is the same as the investor and the issuer optimally exercising their options and discounting the resulting cash flows at a risk-free rate. In turn, the defaulted group of sample paths belongs to the bottom xth percentile of the realized stock prices at each time, which is exogenously given by the cumulative or marginal default probability of a firm that has the same rating as the issuer. Upon calibrating the model, we can see that the moneyness of convertible bonds is strongly responsible for influencing the convertible bond price when the rating changes. Furthermore, the effects of stochastic interest rates are shown to be possibly significant when the interest rate risk’s market price is not zero.     

Bookbuilding vs. fixed price revisited: The effect of aftermarket trading

Investors who possess information about the value of an IPO can participate in the offering as well as trade strategically in the aftermarket. Both the bookbuilding and the fixed price IPO selling methods require more underpricing when aftermarket trading by informed investors is considered. Bookbuilding becomes especially costly, since the potential for profit in the aftermarket adversely affects investors' bidding behavior in the premarket. Unless the underwriter can restrict its bookbuilding effort to a small enough subset of the informed investors, a fixed price strategy that allocates the issue to retail investors produces higher proceeds on average, contrary to the conventional wisdom in the literature. We therefore find a benefit to limiting access to the premarket and, hence, provide an efficiency rationale for the practice by American bankers of marketing IPOs to a select group of investors. We also provide unique policy and empirical implications.     

A jump to default extended CEV model: an application of Bessel processes

We develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework which unifies the valuation of corporate liabilities, credit derivatives, and equity derivatives. We assume that the stock price follows a diffusion, punctuated by a possible jump to zero (default). To capture the positive link between default and equity volatility, we assume that the hazard rate of default is an increasing affine function of the instantaneous variance of returns on the underlying stock. To capture the negative link between volatility and stock price, we assume a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) specification for the instantaneous stock volatility prior to default. We show that deterministic changes of time and scale reduce our stock price process to a standard Bessel process with killing. This reduction permits the development of completely explicit closed form solutions for risk-neutral survival probabilities, CDS spreads, corporate bond values, and European-style equity options. Furthermore, our valuation model is sufficiently flexible so that it can be calibrated to exactly match arbitrarily given term structures of CDS spreads, interest rates, dividend yields, and at-the-money implied volatilities.     

Short selling activity,price efficiency and fundamental value of IPO stocks

In this study, we take advantage of the unique features of the Taiwan stock market, where short selling is forbidden within the first six months following an IPO. We examine the effects of short selling on IPO price efficiency and the relation between short selling activities and the fundamental value of IPO stocks. We find that price efficiency is improved with increased short selling after the lifting of short sale constraints on IPO stocks. We also show that short sellers tend to target IPO stocks with low fundamental ratios, but simultaneously avoid stocks with high transaction costs. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that short sellers focus more on temporary price fluctuations rather than temporary fluctuations in fundamentals.     

Longitudinal accounting comparability and bond credit spreads: Evidence from China

This paper proposes a procedure to measure firms’ longitudinal accounting comparability and investigates whether it affects bond risk premiums. The results provide robust evidence that bonds of firms with more longitudinally comparable accounting information have lower credit spreads. This effect is stronger when the firms’ financial performance is poor and for bonds with speculative credit ratings. Results also reveal that firms with less longitudinally comparable accounting information are more informationally asymmetric and do have a higher expected default probability. Finally, the effects of the longitudinal and the cross-sectional comparability in reducing bond credit spreads are incremental to each other.     

Fixed price and book building methods in an exogenous environment: Evidence from Indonesia stock market

Book building has become a popular method of selling new shares. Although previous models suggest that book building is an efficient method for price discovery in initial public offering (IPO) issuance, empirical evidence provides mixed results. Previous empirical findings on IPO methods have been obtained from markets that allow issuers to choose the IPO method, and this setting is not free from endogeneity issues. We investigate the effect of IPO method (fixed price vs book building) in Indonesia, which is an emerging market that offers an exogenous setting for IPO methods. More specifically, Indonesia used the fixed price method for IPOs before October 2000 and used the book building method thereafter following the introduction of new IPO regulations. Using estimation methods that consider clustering phenomena, we find that book building yields larger underpricing and greater volatility than the fixed price method. Moreover, a positive relationship is observed between underpricing and aftermarket volatility for the book building method and book building IPOs underperform fixed price IPOs. No relationship was observed between underpricing and long-term performance for book building IPOs. Compared with previous models, our findings suggest that book building does not represent a quality IPO method and suffers from agency conflict; thus, this method needs improvement.     

The Pricing of Initial Public Offers of Corporate Straight Debt

This study examines the initial-day and aftermarket price performance of corporate straight debt IPOs. We find that IPOs of speculative grade debt are underpriced like equity IPOs, while those rated investment grade are overpriced. IPOs of investment grade debt are typically issued by firms listed on the major exchanges and underwritten by prestigious underwriters. In contrast, junk bond IPOs are more likely to be handled by less prestigious underwriters and are typically issued by OTC firms. Our analysis also reveals that bond rating, market listing of the firm, and investment banker quality are significant determinants of bond IPO returns.