Behavioral Interventions to Increase Tax‐Time Saving: Evidence from a National Randomized Trial

We provide new large‐scale experimental evidence on policies that aim to boost household saving out of income tax refunds. Households that filed income tax returns with an online tax preparer and chose to receive their refund electronically were randomized into eight treatment groups, which received different combinations of motivational saving prompts and suggested shares of the refund to save—25% and 75%—and a control group, which received neither. In treatment conditions where they were presented, motivational prompts focused on various savings goals: general, retirement, or emergency. Analysis reveals that higher suggested that allocations generated increased allocations of the refund to savings but that prompts for different reasons to save did not. These interventions, which draw on lessons from behavioral economics, represent potentially low‐cost, scalable tools for policy makers interested in helping low‐ and moderate‐income households build savings.     

Windfall Income and the Permanent Income Hypothesis: New Evidence

This paper examines consumer response to windfall income. By using data from the 1972–73 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, an attempt was made to test Friedman's permanent income hypothesis. The results revealed that the marginal propensity to consume regular income was greater than the marginal propensity to consume windfall income for windfalls that were large relative to regular income. However, when windfall income was less than ten percent of regular income, the relationship reversed. Implications are drawn for short and long-run fiscal policies affecting consumers     

The Effect of Windfall Gains on the Sunk-Cost Effect

Prior research has extensively documented the sunk-cost effect – an irrational attention to irrecoverable past costs while making pending investment or consumption decisions. In a series of experiments, we show that the sunk-cost effect weakens and sometimes disappears when consumers receive a windfall (unexpected) income at the time of making a decision. This unbudgeted income allows consumers to write off their past losses, thereby eliminating the pressure to consume in order to satisfactorily close the account. We further show that the similarity between the nature of the windfall income and the past sunk-cost moderates this relationship. More generally, we argue that mental accounts can be flexible and consumers may have discretion in moving money between different mental accounts.     

Use of microcredit for household income and consumption smoothing by low income communities

This paper discusses findings of a study that investigated income, savings and consumption patterns of low income people and critical factors that influence the use of microcredit—a form of small instant loans targeted for low income people—for household income and consumption smoothing. The sample of the study consisted of households from low income communities living in a lower‐middle income country—Sri Lanka. It was found that microcredit borrowers were using the loans for purposes that can be identified as income and consumption smoothing, which is beyond the ideas and intended practice of microcredit. The findings suggest that the consequences of using microcredit for income and consumption smoothing could be costly for households and the society at large.     

Use of 12 groups of foods in households differing in size,income and receipt of food stamps

Using data from the Nationwide Food Consumption Surrey, 1977–78, this study assessed the influence of household size and composition, household income, and eligibility/participation in the Food Stamp Programme (FSP) on the weekly money value of specified food groups used from the household food supply. Mean money values of foods by food groups were calculated for various sample partitions and proportions of total food value allocated to the 12 specified food groups were analysed using ordinary least squares regression. Results indicated that household size had a statistically significant impact on household food consumption patterns. As per capita household income increased, percentage allocations to high-cost meats and beverages generally increased while percentage allocations for the other 10 food groups decreased. The money value of food used per equivalent food energy need increased with decreasing household size and with increasing per capita household income. These relationships occurred for total food and for most of the specified food groups. Households that participated in the FSP used food with higher money value per-equivalent food energy need than did households who were eligible but did not participate in the FSP.     

Cognitive Ability and the Stock Reallocations of Retirees during the Great Recession

Retirees are increasingly responsible for managing their retirement savings. The ability to manage these assets efficiently can have an important impact on retirement well‐being. Lower levels of cognitive ability in old age can reduce an investor's ability to control emotional responses to a loss. Greater sensitivity to loss may increase preferences for safety following a market decline, resulting in allocations away from stocks that are associated with long‐term underperformance. We investigate whether cognitive ability is related to stock reallocations among retirees during the Great Recession. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we find that cognitive ability is negatively related to allocations away from stock. Compared to those with the lowest levels of cognitive ability, respondents with higher cognitive ability are 40% less likely to reduce their stock allocation by 50% or more. These results suggest that the quality of investment decisions in old age may be compromised by cognitive decline.     

Work versus windfall: An exploration of saving on subsequent purchase

Previous research has examined the effects of discounts and promotions on the future performance of a brand or store. However, no attempts have been made to explore how a consumer psychologically accounts for the way a savings is obtained or how that accounting process affects subsequent purchase decisions. This research employs an experimental approach to test the hypothesis that buyers will spend more (save less) of a savings that they obtain from a windfall gain than an equivalent amount obtained from a worked-for savings. Results are generally supportive of the hypothesis, revealing that consumers do treat savings differently depending on how they are obtained. This finding appears to hold over a wide range of saving magnitudes.     

Asset Policies During an Oil Windfall: Some Simple Analytics

Many developing countries are currently experiencing oil windfalls, whether due to discoveries or to price effects. Such windfalls pose a series of policy dilemmas. The literature has focused on one of these: the choice between using windfall savings for public capital formation and investment in foreign assets. There are good theoretical reasons for investing a substantial part of the windfall initially abroad: the return to investment would fall below the world interest rate if the windfall were to be used entirely for domestic investment. Investing abroad offers an escape from diminishing returns: foreign assets can be repatriated gradually and used for domestic investment. However, in practice the efficient balance between domestic and foreign assets is politically difficult to sustain. Also, even if politically feasible this strategy is inefficient due to the failure to expand the private capital stock (‘equipment’). The policy problem is that the government cannot undertake such investment itself and trying to induce private agents to undertake equipment investment by transferring part of the windfall to them is likely to fail as a result of information problems. We argue that domestic debt repayment solves this dilemma. It has the added advantage of making foreign asset accumulation difficult to reverse.     

我国城镇居民旅游消费的实证分析

通过选取城镇居民储蓄增加额、交通和文化娱乐消费价格指数和城镇居民收入三个指标,作为影响旅游消费的基本因素,应用OLS分析法,借助spss软件,构建旅游消费模型,并对模型进行了检验,得出三个指标对影响居民旅游消费的影响程度,结果表明旅游消费具有消费的一般特征,与储蓄增加额和价格之间存在密切的关系,即人均旅游花费与储蓄增加额呈正相关关系,人均旅游花费与交通娱乐消费价格指数呈负相关关系。     

基于风险预算的新疆居民家庭金融资产的风险资产配置

通过对新疆2013-2017年的居民家庭金融总资产以及投资和储蓄的分析,从宏观的家庭金融资产视角使用Markowitz的投资组合的均值-方差模型在风算预算的基础上,进一步计算出实际新疆居民每年应当用于储蓄或者用于投资与固定风险和较大风险的比例,即得出风险资产的配置,从而提高新疆居民的储蓄向投资的转化,加强居民金融资产的管理和风险资产的分配,提高居民的风险收益,为新疆居民家庭获取更多金融资产投资于风险性收入提供更好的政策建议。     

Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach

This paper studies the consumption and portfolio selection problem of an agent who is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk. The paper investigates how the optimal consumption and asset allocation policies deviate from the case where the financial market is perfect, i.e., the case where there are no liquidity constraints and uninsurable income risk. In particular, the paper shows that, for a given level of financial wealth and labor income, optimal consumption is smaller and the optimal level of risk taking is lower in the case where the agent is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk than in the case where the financial market is perfect. The paper also discusses how the agent assesses the value of lifetime labor income and relates this evaluation to optimal consumption and asset allocation policies.     

我国城镇居民旅游消费的实证分析

通过选取城镇居民储蓄增加额、交通和文化娱乐消费价格指数和城镇居民收入三个指标,作为影响旅游消费的基本因素,应用OLS分析法,借助spss软件,构建旅游消费模型,并对模型进行了检验,得出三个指标对影响居民旅游消费的影响程度,结果表明旅游消费具有消费的一般特征,与储蓄增加额和价格之间存在密切的关系,即人均旅游花费与储蓄增加额呈正相关关系,人均旅游花费与交通娱乐消费价格指数呈负相关关系。     

Advertising and National Consumption: A Path Analytic Re-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument

Abstract

A relatively new analytic technique, PATHEVAL, is used to re-examine an old issue, the relationship between advertising and national consumption. Using cross-national annual data collected on 53 nations, the authors find little evidence for Galbraith's view of advertising as a most persuasive force in altering people's spending and savings habits. Four variables are included in the path analytic model: national income, energy use — a proxy for industrial development, disposable income, private final consumption, and national advertising expenditures. In the Galbraithian argument, disposable income and industrial development predict to advertising, which leads to consumption. The contentions of Galbraith's critics are supported by the analysis: income appears to lead to consumption, which in turn, leads to advertising.     

Relationship, Contribution, and Resource Constrains: Determinants of Distributive Justice in Individual Preferences and Negotiated Agreements

This laboratory study investigated the impact of relationship, relative levels of perceived contribution, and resource constraints on individuals' allocation preferences and dyads' negotiated allocations. Dyads of female undergraduates – either strangers or roommates – were given performance feedback that one member produced the majority of the resources available to the dyad; the members of the dyad faced relatively scarce or abundant resources. Subjects indicated their individual allocation preferences and then negotiated the distribution of resources as a pair. Results indicate that all three factors are important predictors of the norms of distributive justice met by the individually preferred and dyadically negotiated allocations. Results also suggest that the degree of agreement between the norms implied by individually preferred allocations and dyadic agreements affect strangers' satisfaction with outcomes to a greater extent than roommates'.     

我国消费需求变动趋势分析与政策建议

文章在总结改革开放以来我国消费需求变动特点的基础上,从收入变动、收入差距、制度改革、产品供给结构、消费环境等方面分析了我国消费需求下降的原因,最后从改进国民收入初次分配和再分配、调整供给结构以及优化消费环境等方面提出了相应的政策建议。     

论温室气体排放配额的初始分配

温室气体排放配额初始分配的方式有无偿分配和有偿分配两类。无偿分配按照分配方法又分为基于祖父法则的分配和基于基准法则的分配。有偿分配主要有政府定价和拍卖两种。在当前各国的立法实践中,温室气体排放配额分配主要采取无偿分配方式。温室气体排放配额分配应当坚持效率原则、公平原则和环境效益原则,未来排放配额的分配应当采取有偿方式。     

文化消费推动我国消费增长及其结构改善吗?--基于省际面板数据的实证研究

本文结合我国2002-2013年跨省面板数据实证分析后发现,文化消费不仅有助于我国总消费水平提升,也显著改善我国消费的内部结构,突出表现为消费的服务化特点快速发展。在收入增长保证各类消费支出的“包容性”增长之下,文化消费并没有造成对非耐用品和耐用品消费支出显著的“挤出效应”。随着我国“收入倍增”计划带来长效收入增长机制作用的持续释放和社会保障体制改善带来居民预防性动机下过度储蓄的降低,文化消费通过关联作用下的“挤入效应”继续带动相关非耐用品和服务消费支出的增长。     

为什么中国经济会失衡——权力配置失衡下的经济失衡

为什么中国经济会失衡？已有文献分别从收入分配失衡、储蓄过度、资源要要素价格扭曲、计划生育政策所带来的扭曲等方面对此进行了解释。然而,本文认为中国经济失衡的本质在于收入分配的失衡,而决定收入分配失衡的原因在于国内的权力配置失衡和全球的权力配置失衡。国内的权力失衡会导致资源和收入向政府、国有垄断企业、资本所有者、企业主等经济主体的超额分配,使国内收入分配失衡。收入的失衡就会引致中国低消费、高储蓄、高投资和高出口。而美元霸权又导致全球资源向美国配置,并使中国的出口导向战略得以维持,从而加剧了中国的贸易和资本顺差。     

The Consumer Impact of Alternative Allocation Plans: The Case of Gasoline

This paper assesses the potential impact of rationing, “lifeline,” rationing with resale and tax-rebate approaches to extra-market allocation from the consumer's perspective. Basic microeconomic tools are used to demonstrate that the rationing with resale and tax-rebate plans have similar effects and that all consumers would prefer those policies to lifeline allocation. Conventional rationing is shown to benefit households consuming intermediate quantities of an allocated good while rationing with resale and tax-rebate programs provide large and small users with higher levels of satisfaction. These propositions are empirically confirmed for the case of gasoline. Quantitative results suggest that simple rationing and lifeline plans calculated to reduce aggregate gasoline consumption by 10 percent would have severe impact on high income consumers. Alternative policies would broaden the burden of conservation and cause income redistribution toward low income consumers.