Testing weak form efficiency on the Toronto Stock Exchange

In order to test for weak form efficiency in the market a vast pool of individual stocks must be analyzed rather than a stock market index. In this paper, a model-based bootstrap is used to generate a series of simulated trials and a modified chart pattern recognition algorithm is applied to all stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The number of patterns detected in the original price series is compared with the number of patterns found in the simulated series. By simulating the price path specific time dependencies present in real data are eliminated, making price changes purely random. Patterns, if consistently identified, carry information which adds value to the investment process, however, this informativeness does not guarantee profitability. Conclusions are drawn on the relative efficiency of some sectors of the economy. Although the null hypothesis of weak form efficiency on the TSX cannot be rejected, some sectors of the Canadian economy appear to be less efficient than others. In addition, pattern frequencies appear to be negatively dependent on the two moments of return distributions, variance and kurtosis.     

Options on Leveraged Equity: Theory and Empirical Tests

We develop an option pricing model for calls and puts written on leveraged equity in an economy with corporate taxes and bankruptcy costs. The model explains implied Black-Scholes volatility biases by relating them to the firm's structural characteristics such as leverage and debt covenants. We test the model by comparing predicted pricing biases with biases observed in a large cross-section of firms with liquid exchange traded option contracts. Our empirical study detects leverage related pricing biases. The magnitudes of these biases correspond to those predicted by our model. We also find significant pricing biases for firms financed primarily by short-term debt. This supports our model because short-term debt introduces net-worth hurdles similar to net-worth covenants.     

The Stock Price-Volume Linkage on the Toronto Stock Exchange: Before and After Automation

This paper investigates the information content of trading volume on the Toronto Stock Exchange before and after the move towards fully electronic trading. It is argued that if price discovery improves under electronic trading, the predictive power of volume should be less significant. The empirical analysis supports more accurate price discovery under electronic trading. Results from both the structural and vector autoregression models indicate that the predictive power of volume for price variability disappears after full automation.     

Tests of Weak‐Form Efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Exchange

Abstract:   Conflicting evidence on weak form efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Market appears to stem from the use of monthly versus daily data, structural changes after the 1996 market crash, and the use of tests with or without heteroscedasticity adjustment. Heteroscedasticity‐robust tests indicate short‐term predictability of share prices prior to the crash, but not afterwards. Although a heteroscedasticity‐robust Box‐Pierce test was used by Lo and MacKinlay (1989) in their simulations, our study appears to be the first to apply this test to stock prices. Typical rejection of weak‐form market efficiency by the usual autocorrelation tests may be reversed by a heteroscedasticity‐robust test.     

基于阶段性的矿业基金联合投资的持股偏好及其影响研究 ——来自多伦多证券交易所的经验证据

作为风险分散的主要投资策略,联合投资在矿产投资中相较其他行业使用突出.本文以2008-2013年投资多伦多证券交易所矿产企业的国际矿业基金为研究对象,采用阶段性分析方法,来理解联合投资的投资决策行为及其影响.研究发现,与单独投资相比,采取联合投资策略的矿业基金更关注企业的盈利能力和企业规模.在投资中的持股变化阶段,联合投资者更注重对投资风险的分散及对收益的获取,这符合联合投资行为的动机.而且,"跟投"现象明显.最后,联合投资持股对被投资企业绩效有显著的正影响,并表现出持续性.由于联合投资的合作关系的积极效应,参与联合投资的矿业基金数量越多,基金之间实力越相近,对于被投资企业的绩效管理更为有利.     

企业外汇融资取向

资金是企业生存发展的血液。对与国际市场紧密联系的涉外企业来说,外汇融资对涉外企业生产经营、外汇资金运作和合理配置发挥着至关重要的作用。     

沪深两市信息非对称程度及其对比:基于MRR方法的经验研究

本文采用Madhavan,Richarson and Roomans(1997)模型对沪深两市A股市场的信息非对称程度进行了经验比较.首先将隐性价差分解为逆向选择成本和指令处理成本两部分,然后以隐性价差中逆向选择成本所占的比重作为市场信息非对称程度的衡量指标,最后以该衡量指标实证比较了沪深两市的信息非对称的日内变动模式和大小.经验分析表明,沪市信息非对称程度的日内变动模式呈倒"U"形,而深市信息非对称程度的日内模式无明显规律;与沪市类似,深市信息非对称在开盘初期呈上升趋势和午市连续竞价的末期呈下降趋势;沪市的信息非对称程度在大多数交易时段要大于深市.     

证券交易所竞争上市公司资源研究综述

本文把证券交易所上市资源竞争看成是证券交易所、企业和投资者三方间的博弈，并从证券交易所间竞争的途径与方法、企业的上市选择、投资者选择证券交易所以及证券交易所竞争产生的影响等方面归纳总结国内外学者的研究成果，希望能给国内学者进一步深入研究提供参考，同时给我国证券交易所应对上市资源竞争和企业上市选择提供借鉴。     

Analytic Pricing of Employee Stock Options

We introduce a model that captures the main properties thatcharacterize employee stock options (ESO). We discuss the likelihoodof early voluntary ESO exercise, and the obligation to exerciseimmediately if the employee leaves the firm, except if thishappens before options are vested, in which case the optionsare forfeited. We derive an analytic formula for the price ofthe ESO and in a case study compare it to alternative methods.     

Incentive Efficiency of Stock versus Options

This paper examines the relative incentive costs of using stockversus options in management incentive contracts that use market priceas the performance measure. We establish that if the manager'seffort has little or no effect on a firm's operating risk, thenthe cost of incentive risk is less using stock rather than options.However, this result is reversed if the manager's effort has asignificant impact on the firm's operating risk.     

Clearly Irrational Financial Market Behavior: Evidence from the Early Exercise of Exchange Traded Stock Options

This paper analyzes the early exercise of exchange-traded options by different classes of investors over the 1996 to 1999 period. A large number of exercises are identified as clearly irrational without invoking any model of market equilibrium. Customers of discount brokers and customers of full-service brokers both engage in a significant number of irrational exercises while traders at large investment houses exhibit no irrational early exercise behavior. Rational and irrational exercise is triggered for discount and full-service customers by the underlying stock price attaining its highest level over the past year and by high returns on the underlying stock.     

Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the use of tick-by-tick data for intraday market risk measurement. We propose a method to compute an Intraday Value at Risk based on irregularly spaced high-frequency data and an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. A log-ACD–ARMA–EGARCH model is used to specify the joint density of the marked point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for three stocks actively traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Compared to traditional techniques applied to intraday data, our methodology has two main advantages. First, our risk measure has a higher informational content as it takes into account all observations. On the total risk measure, our method allows for distinguishing the effect of random trade durations from the effect of random returns, and for analyzing the interaction between these factors. Thus, we find that the information contained in the time between transactions is relevant to risk analysis, which is consistent with predictions from asymmetric-information models in the market microstructure literature. Second, once the model has been estimated, the IVaR can be computed by any trader for any time horizon based on the same information and with no need of sampling the data and estimating the model again when the horizon changes. Backtesting results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active in the market.     

Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency

We derive empirical tests for the stochastic dominance efficiency of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets. The tests can be computed using straightforward linear programming. Bootstrapping techniques and asymptotic distribution theory can approximate the sampling properties of the test results and allow for statistical inference. Our results could provide a stimulus to the further proliferation of stochastic dominance for the problem of portfolio selection and evaluation. Using our tests, the Fama and French market portfolio is significantly inefficient relative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization and book‐to‐market equity ratio.     

Sampling Practices of Internal Auditors at Corporations on the Standard & Poor's Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index*

The purpose of this study is to find out how often statistical and nonstatistical audit sampling practices are used by internal auditors in companies listed on the Standard and Poor's (S&P) Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) Composite Index and how such practices are related to the training and background of the respondents. We adapted the questionnaire used by Hall, Hunton, and Pierce (2002) in their survey of U.S. auditors in public accounting, industry, and government. Although 20 percent of companies responding do not have an internal audit department, the other 80 percent use statistical methods to plan sample sizes 15 percent (+5 percent) of the time, random sample selection methods 23 percent (+5 percent) of the time, but statistical evaluation methods only 10% (+4%) of the time. Despite the low percentage use, almost half of the respondents reported substantial training in statistical sampling and evaluation methods. Moreover, we found statistically significantly higher proportions of respondents with substantial training in audit sampling methods among companies cross‐listed on U.S. exchanges compared with companies listed only on the TSX. Finally, respondents with a chartered accountant designation tend to have a negative impact on the use of statistical methods in audit sampling, and companies cross‐listed on U.S. exchanges tend to have larger internal audit departments than companies listed only on the TSX.     

基于深市上市公司IPO盈余管理实证研究

在分析IPO盈余管理动机的基础上,研究了IPO公司进行盈余管理的手段及其影响。以2008年在深圳证券交易所上市的71家公司为对象,通过研究其2006-2010五年的经济数据,运用改进后的Jones模型,得出两个结论：上市公司的业绩在IPO前后存在明显的差异,并且上市前两年的业绩高于IPO当年及IPO后两年;上市公司通过调整应计利润进行盈余的操纵。最后针对分析结果提出相应对策,以期对加强证券市场监管,完善公司治理结构,帮助投资者进行投资决策做出贡献。     

国际股票市场、汇率冲击对我国股票价格影响的实证研究

随着金融一体化的发展,20世纪90年代中期以后股票市场联动的现象日益显著,我国外贸依存度不断提高、金融服务业逐步开放,2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,汇率浮动区间的扩大是否起到了缓解国际市场冲击的作用成为理论界有待探讨的问题.本文分析了美国股票市场和汇率与我国股票价格之间的作用形式和程度,并对汇率是否起到缓解国际股票市场冲击的作用进行了检验.结果表明,在人民币升值的趋势下,汇率变化在股票市场面临负向冲击时,起到一定的缓冲作用;在股票市场面临正向冲击时,起到的是加速作用.     

交易所收入多样化的国际趋势

证券交易所从来未像今天这样感受到竞争所带来的生存威胁.特别是在交易所公司化之后,激烈的市场竞争把交易所推到了风口浪尖.股东对盈利能力的要求,技术进步引发的投资性需求等等,使交易所面临前所未有的盈利压力.若不能实现收入的持续增长,不仅无法在竞争中占据一席之地,更可能在风声鹤唳的并购市场被收入囊中.于是,收入多样化成为各交易所一致的目标选择.