楼市“330新政”,谁的利好谁的大坑?

3月30日,央行在辟谣楼市将出台利好政策后3个小时,就戏剧性地释放了重磅“彩蛋”:二套房商贷最低首付比例降至40％;公积金贷款购首套房最低首付20％,二套房最低30％;二手房营业税由“满五年”放宽为“满两年”.新政一出,率先进入视野的新闻,一则是成都一市民在新政公布5分钟内花600万购房,另一则是部分房东开发商涨价“任性”,福建一楼盘单价甚至是应声涨了3000元.消息稍微沉淀之后,专家开始继续各说各话,有的认为差不多是2009年救市的翻版,房价将暴涨,至少有10％的上涨空间;有的认为不会改变楼市大势.那么,究竟该怎么看待楼市“330新政”、怎么预判楼市“330新政”的影响呢?     

四个新定位再次奏响龙岗经济社会发展最强音——努力建设产业发达、平安和谐生态优美、人文荟萃的现化新城区

深圳市龙岗区正迎来2011年世界大学生运动会、特区内外一体化、深港合作三大历史性机遇,具有空间、生态和后发优势,天时、地利、人和兼备,处于发展的黄金时期.近日,广东省委副书记、深圳市委书记刘玉浦到龙岗区检查文明城市创建迎检工作时,寄望龙岗区建设产业发达、平安和谐、生态优美、人文荟萃的现代化新城区.龙岗区委书记余伟良指出, "继续解放思想,坚持改革开放,以科学发展观为统领,以举办大运为契机,努力建设产业发达、平安和谐、生态优美、人文荟萃的现代化新城区"是龙岗区的总体城市定位,与原来提出的"以科学发展观为统领,以建设和谐、效益、平安、生态、人文龙岗为抓手,努力把龙岗建设成为代表深圳21世纪水准的新城区"这两者之间是一脉相承的,但标准更高,要求更高,期望更高,是针对未来龙岗经济社会发展再次发出的最强音.     

OK精彩重庆!——"华宇杯"外国人眼中的重庆摄影大赛获奖作品选登

现代化的繁华大都市,极富巴渝韵味的老街小巷,薄雾依稀的江水幽岚,如梦如幻的洪崖夜景,以及勤劳快乐的山城人民……这些来自在重庆生活、工作、学习、旅游的外国人眼中的重庆景色,散发出迷人的光影.     

武警重庆总队组建9年,在直辖市的经济社会建设中处处都有他们的身影——护航驰劲旅奉献壮军威

中国人民解放军建军80周年,全军将士换上07式服装.对祖国的日益昌盛、军队的科技化、现代化的无尚荣光,武警重庆总队总队长谢春光少将说:我军80岁生日,我穿上了更威严、更庄严的07式新军装,感到无比光荣与自豪!我们的军队是一支威武之师、文明之师!     

对海西畜牧业发展的几点认识

一、畜牧业发展状况 海西州是我省重要的畜牧业生产基地之一,具有丰富的天然草地资源.全州草原面积957.23hm2,占全州总面积的27.72%,其中可利用面积709.82hm2.2005年全州大牲畜年末存栏数19.98万头,占全州牲畜总数的9.56%,其中牛16.33万头,占全州牲畜总数的7.8%,马2.84万匹,占全州牲畜总数的1.38%,骆驼0.01万峰,役畜0.07万头;羊年末存栏数191.57万只;年末出栏牲畜总数98.58万头(只);繁殖母畜111.45万头(只),成活各类仔畜83.13万头(只),成活率74.58%.肉类总产量20041吨,其中羊肉11568吨,牛肉5463吨;奶总产量11931吨,其中牛奶9093吨,羊奶2838吨;毛总产量2175吨;绒总产量258.96吨,其中山羊绒133.28吨,牛绒104.01吨,驼绒21.67吨.畜产品总产值按1990年不变价格计算达37425万元.     

红金台金场变成了战场

可可西里地区被夹峙在昆仑山和唐古拉山之间,而红金台则是可可西里的腹中之国.环绕着它的,有可可西里湖、太阳湖、月亮湖等.地质构造表明,红金台地区是一个断裂带,这里藏着巨大的金矿,而美国地球卫星提供的资料也证明了这一点.应该说,在西部山野矿脉延伸的巨大网系里,红金台是最值得骄傲的皇冠.据测定,它的绝对高度是5500公尺,相对高度为55公尺,是一个总面积约为650平方米的椭圆形小山包.     

产业链条长河涌波连通世界

产业发展的实践证明,支柱产业的崛起,需要有一条高效运转的、环环相扣的、拥有现代最新科技手段的产业链条做支撑.而今日三峡的百万亩柑橘产业,已然将选种、育苗、栽培、生产、深加工、营销、科研、游游等环节和要素集于一身,一条高效的、先进的黄金产业链从农户的田间地头、库区的工厂、科研机构、市场与世界各地息息相通,并发挥出越来越大的社会效益和经济效益.     

搏击市场竞风流——延安守山机械制造有限公司

延安守山机械制造有限公司是延安市姚店工业园区第一批人住的五家企业之一.2006年,被市委、市政府列为重点开发建设项目,总投资1.2亿元,占地面积98亩,属石油机械加工制造企业.公司内设三个分厂,即抽油杆分厂,年产量500万米;油管、套管分厂,年产量10万吨;抽油机分厂,年产量1500台.     

大师傅的地道济南菜

梁利修是济南晶晶大酒店餐饮总监.他制作出的百余种菜肴在业界颇受好评,曾获得"中国鲁菜大师"等称号,在中国国际美食节中国鲁菜技艺大赛中获热菜金牌、十三届中国厨师节中"乌龙载舟"获金奖,他在海参制作与-涨发、晒制方面更有自己的独到之处,涨发的海参弹力如球.看他做菜时候的一系列的绝招--"丝绸上切肉丝"、"蒙眼烹制菜肴、蒙眼切土豆丝"、"拉面穿针"、"空中大翻",无一不是盛大的视觉享受,而吃他做的菜更是一场美妙的味觉享受.     

投资数千万元改造的凤凰山森林公园开园迎宾

深圳西部宝安区福永街道素有"凤山福水福盈地"的美誉,这里有个小村有60多座明清民居构成的古建筑群,是目前深圳乃至广东地区现存古建筑最多、最集中、面积最大、     

Estimating Korea's Exchange Rate Exposure

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the exchange rate exposure of 392 Korean firms by employing not only changes in the exchange rate but also the standard deviation of exchange rates as foreign exchange risk. A logit model is also used to identify the major factors in exchange rate exposure. The empirical results in the case of using the standard deviation of exchange rates suggest that: the number of firms showing significant exchange rate exposure has been relatively increasing; exchange rate exposure is more likely for export‐oriented manufacturing industries than for nonmanufacturing industries; and large firms using hedging methods are likely to show a low degree of exchange rate exposure.     

Real Exchange Rate in China：A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

Does China＇s Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi？

A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straightforward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China's exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China's trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China's persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible.     

Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China： 2000-2009

This paper measures the industry-specific real effective exchange rate （REER） for China by matching domestic and foreign industry-level price and trade data series. We find that after 2005 the REER appreciates more in the ＂chemical, plastics, rubber and fuels industry＂ and the ＂＇machinery and equipment industry,＂ but remains roughly constant or even depreciates in other industries. The nominal exchange rate generally accounts for over 50 percent of the aggregate real effective exchange rate JTuetuations, but this conclusion does not apply to three of nine industries. We apply the industry-specific REER to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and trade, and find that the industry-specific REER index performs better than the traditional aggregate REER index. We recommend that the Chinese Government officially adopt industry-specific exchange rates instead of using the aggregate effective exchange rates to evaluate the competitiveness of Chinese industries in the international market.     

Inflation Targeting in ASEAN‐10

The paper addresses the empirical question of whether economies that do not systematically target inflation (non‐inflation targeters) experience higher exchange rate volatility as compared with inflation targeters in 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) from 1990 to 2010. The paper examines the role of real exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the reaction functions of central banks using dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results indicate that the output gap offers more useful information than the inflation gap in setting interest rates for inflation targeters, implying that the real term is more important than the nominal term. In turn, this suggests that an increase in interest rate can be wielded swiftly to reduce real gross domestic product and suppress inflation. The real exchange rate appears as a weaker determinant in setting interest rates for non‐inflation targeters. Inflation targeters experienced lower exchange rate volatility compared with non‐targeters in the ASEAN, which implies that implementation costs to their domestic economies may be marginally lower. Meanwhile, the non‐targeters follow a mixed strategy as both the inflation and real exchange rate are used as instruments to set the interest rates.     

SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN MEXICO

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination, which includes the relative GDP per capita, the real interest rates, and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model.     

人民币汇率制度改革以及汇率波动性研究

自我国1978年改革开放以来,我国汇率制度的改革大体上经过了3个阶段:复汇率制度、单一有管理浮动汇率制度、参考"一篮子货币"有管理浮动汇率制度。本文着重讲述了这三个阶段汇率制度的改革情况,分析了人民币兑美元的汇率走势,并对汇率波动性进行实证研究,然后指出我国汇率制度当前存在的问题,以及针对这些问题提出改革的下一步路径。     

IMPLICATIONS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THEORY,EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND APPLICATION TO GROWTH PERFORMANCE IN ZIMBABWE

The influence of exchange rate signals in an economy is very powerful and often pervasive. Moreover, sustained real exchange rate overvaluation will, by distorting resource allocation away from productive activities, eventually lead to drastic adjustments of relative prices and reduction of aggregate economic growth. However, the direct theoretical and empirical link between exchange rate misalignment and macroeconomic indicators still remains to be fully understood. Nonetheless, empirical studies continue to make attempts to understand this relationship by exploring relationships that incorporate different measures of exchange rate misalignment in traditional growth regression models. Based on a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate derived measure exchange rate misalignment, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and real exchange rate misalignment for Zimbabwe. After controlling for other structural and policy variables, the main findings demonstrate that exchange rate misalignment exerts a negative and highly statistically significant impact on growth. Overall, the results lend support to the hypothesis that chronic real exchange rate overvaluation was a key fundamental behind the post‐2000 economic growth contraction in Zimbabwe.     

Target Zones and Realignment Risk: An Integrated Approach

In this paper, it is shown that inflation differentials and trade deficits were significant determinants for exchange rate movements in the European monetary system. Since the target zone prevents EMS exchange rates from adjusting gradually to changing economic conditions, a standard regression model cannot detect this influence however. Therefore, a new econometric model is introduced, in which deteriorating competitiveness increases the probability of large depreciations and high volatility. These depreciations can be due to large devaluations or to panic reactions of the market due to expected devaluations. It is shown that the out-of-sample predictions of the model outperform the random walk, and that large arbitrage gains can be made in the foreign exchange market if our model predictions are used.     

论人民币汇率制度改革

自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调整的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。但是改革才刚刚开始,人民币汇率形成机制尚不完善,在这种情况下,汇率制度进一步的调整与改革是必要的。本文在基于我国经济开放的背景下,讨论了我国现行人民币汇率制度的特点、积极方面和存在的不足,在考虑制约人民币汇率制度进一步改革的因素后,提出了汇率制度进一步改革的方向、目标和相应的对策选择。