International tax competition with endogenous sequencing

This paper examines endogenous timing in an international tax competition model. Unlike existing studies, governments are assumed to decide not only tax rates but also whether they are set early or late. The Nash equilibrium provides four conclusions for alternative double tax allowances. First, tax deductions cause simultaneous tax competition, whereas tax credits yield sequential tax competition. Second, any double taxation relief would generate capital trade. Third, a credit system could maximize one country’s economic welfare but would lower another country’s economic welfare more than a deduction regime. Fourth, a home country’s government would choose credit regimes under a maximax rule, but select deduction methods under minimax and maximin rules, while all double tax allowances are indifferent to a host country. The findings resolve the question raised by Bond and Samuelson (Economic Journal 99:1099–1111, 1989) of why governments choose tax credits when tax deductions are clearly better. Namely, this paper shows that one country is better off but another is worse off with credits rather than deductions. Accordingly, we cannot clearly specify whether governments choose credit systems or deduction regimes. The possible double tax allowances employed by the governments depend on their own decision criterion.     

Asymmetric capital tax competition and choice of tax rate

This article provides an alternative mechanism that explains differences in capital tax rates, which applies to small jurisdictions. In the framework of standard capital tax competition models, regions have to be large, in the sense of having market power, otherwise they will tax capital, a mobile factor, at the same rate. In this paper, we consider a second mobile factor, labor, which is mobile only within metropolitan areas. We will show that this spatially limited mobile factor may explain the capital tax rate differences levied on the global mobile factor as long as no source-based wage tax is available. In addition to the theoretical treatment, numerical simulations also confirm this result and show a significant tax differential.     

Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration

This study investigates how and why different pairs of national equity markets display differing degrees of co-movement over time. We interpret a greater degree of co-movement to reflect greater stock market integration. We hypothesize the extent of stock market integration may depend upon certain macroeconomic variables that characterize and influence the degree of economic integration between two countries. As the degree of economic integration varies over time for a given pair of countries, we may expect the extent of equity market integration to vary systematically. We empirically investigate this hypothesis by employing a two-step procedure to explore first, how the degree of co-movement for a given pair of markets varies over time and second, why this interdependence varies over time. First, we employ daily data for nine national equity markets over 22 yearly samples to estimate annual Geweke [J. Am. Statist. Assoc. 77 (1982) 304–313] measures of feedback for different pairs of markets. For each pair of markets, the time series of 22 annual Geweke measures reveals the evolution in how co-movement in daily returns varies over time. Second, we specify a set of macroeconomic variables that characterize and influence the degree of economic integration for each pair of countries. Finally, we incorporate these variables in a pooled time series regression model across all possible pairs of these nine markets to estimate the influence of macroeconomic determinants on evolution in stock market integration.     

Optimal portfolio choice of gold assets in the differential market and differential game structures

Portfolio choices of gold-related assets for market investors and dealers may not only depend on price differences and the inflation rate, but may also react to the market participants’ strategic behavior and risk attitude. This study develops a two-agent stochastic differential game model to solve the portfolio choice problem of the asset allocations of gold spot, futures, and cash for market participators who are exposed to inflation risks. The equilibrium prices of spot and futures driven by the volatility rate and co-variances that reflect various risk sources are also determined. Specifically, regarding the choice of hedging tools, market participators may prefer gold spot to futures for the purpose of hedging inflation risk. By capturing the stylistic facts of differential market and multiple agent structures, the article can develop a more reasonable and practical model to usefully explain the gold portfolio choices and pricing in the gold markets.     

Tobin tax and market depth

This paper investigates—on the basis of the Cont–Bouchaud model—whether a Tobin tax can stabilize foreign exchange markets. Compared to earlier multi-agent studies, this paper explicitly recognizes that a transaction tax-induced reduction in market depth may increase the price responsiveness of a given order. We find that the imposition of a transaction tax may still achieve a triple dividend: (1) exchange rate fluctuations decrease, (2) currencies are less mispriced and (3) central authorities raise substantial tax revenues. However, if the price impact function is too sensitive with respect to market depth, stabilization may turn into destabilization.     

Optimal tax base with administrative fixed costs

This note characterizes the optimal base for commodity taxation in the presence of administrative fixed costs varying across goods. For low tax rates, the optimal base only comprises commodities whose discouragement index is greater than the ratio of their administrative costs to the tax they yield. An illustration with UK data shows that a category of goods should be taxed only if the revenue generated on this category is at least ten times greater than its administrative fixed cost. The cost imputable to the category of goods taxed at the standard rate would be at most 6 percent of total VAT revenue. The administration cost associated with categories of goods currently tax-free could justify exemption.     

Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data

Given the unique institutional regulations in the Chinese commodity futures market as well as the characteristics of the data it generates, we utilize contracts with three months to delivery, the most liquid contract series, to systematically explore volatility forecasting for aluminum, copper, fuel oil, and sugar at the daily and three intraday sampling frequencies. We adopt popular volatility models in the literature and assess the forecasts obtained via these models against alternative proxies for the true volatility. Our results suggest that the long memory property is an essential feature in the commodity futures volatility dynamics and that the ARFIMA model consistently produces the best forecasts or forecasts not inferior to the best in statistical terms.     

Tax competition and tax base equalization in the presence of multiple tax instruments

The literature on tax competition has argued that tax base equalization, which reduces regional disparities in tax bases, can serve as a means of internalizing horizontal and vertical fiscal externalities. This argument assumes that each government relies on a single tax base (a regional tax on mobile capital and a federal tax on savings). This paper considers the case in which a distortionary labor tax is also available. Internalizing fiscal externalities requires that while the regional capital tax base is fully equalized, a region’s equalization entitlement for the labor tax is positive when its tax base is “larger” than the average tax base of all regions. This efficient tax base equalization system is incompatible with the primary objective of fiscal equalization.

     

Product market threats and tax avoidance

In this paper, we find that product market threats increase firms’ tax avoidance. This association is especially observed for firms that pursue tax avoidance more than their optimal target level (i.e., actively tax-avoiding firms). In addition, among these firms with active tax avoidance practices, firms with weaker corporate governance structure, lower financial flexibility, and greater predation risk are more likely to experience the positive relationship between product market threats and tax avoidance. Further evidence suggests that higher levels of tax avoidance driven by product market threats do not come with higher levels of tax uncertainty and rather positively affect firms’ profitability. This result highlights the decoupling relationship between tax avoidance and tax uncertainty.     

Inflation,tax rules and the stock market

This paper shows how the interaction of tax rules and expected inflation can decrease substantially the share price per dollar of pretax earnings. The current analysis extends my earlier study [Feldstein (1978)] by recognizing corporate debt, retained earnings, and the role of diverse shareholder investments. As before, the analysis separates household and institutional investors.     

Optimal commodity asset allocation with a coherent market risk modeling

This paper fills a fundamental gap in commodity price risk management and optimal portfolio selection literatures by contributing a thorough reflection on trading risk modeling with a dynamic asset allocation process and under the supposition of illiquid and adverse market settings. This paper analyzes, from a portfolio managers' perspective, the performance of liquidity adjusted risk modeling in obtaining efficient and coherent investable commodity portfolios under normal and adverse market conditions. As such, the author argues that liquidity risk associated with the uncertainty of liquidating multiple commodity assets over given holding periods is a key factor in formalizing and measuring overall trading risk and is thus an important component to model, particularly in the wake of the repercussions of the recent 2008 financial crisis. To this end, this article proposes a practical technique for the quantification of liquidity trading risk for large portfolios that consist of multiple commodity assets and whereby the holding periods are adjusted according to the specific needs of each trading portfolio. Specifically, the paper proposes a robust technique to commodity optimal portfolio selection, in a liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk (L-VaR) framework, and particularly from the perspective of large portfolios that have both long and short positions or portfolios that consist of merely pure long trading positions. Moreover, in this paper, the author develops a portfolio selection model and an optimization-algorithm which allocates commodity assets by minimizing the L-VaR subject to applying credible operational and financial constraints based on fundamental asset management considerations. The empirical optimization results indicate that this alternate L-VaR technique can be regarded as a robust portfolio management tool and can have many uses and applications in real-world asset management practices and predominantly for fund managers with large commodity portfolios.     

Trade integration and corporate income tax differentials

Building on recent contributions to the New Economic Geography literature, this paper analyses the relation between asymmetric market size, trade integration, and corporate income tax differentials across countries. First, relying on Ottaviano and Van Ypersele’s (J. Int. Econ. 67:25–46, 2005) foot-loose capital model of tax competition, we illustrate that trade integration reduces the importance of relative market size for differences in the extent of corporate taxation between countries. Then, using a dataset of 26 OECD countries over the period 1982–2004, we provide supportive evidence of these theoretical predictions, i.e., market size differences are strongly positively correlated with corporate income tax differences across countries, but crucially, trade integration weakens this link. These findings are obtained controlling for the potential endogeneity of trade integration and are robust to alternative specifications.     

An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery

We propose a model of time-varying price discovery based on a rolling-window error correction framework. We show that price discovery in nine commodities is dominated by the spot market, while, in only six commodities, price discovery is dominated by the futures market. Our findings, therefore, challenge the well-established view in commodity markets that it is the futures market which dominates the price discovery process. We also show the economic significance of price discovery through a portfolio construction and hedging strategy.     

论我国所得税种结构优化

税种结构，是一个国家依据本国国情和财政需要，选择若干不同性质和功能的税种组成有主次并相互配合、相互制约，结构严密的税种体系。目前我国税种结构应以流转税和所得税为主要税种。所得税种结构优化进在政府获取一定税收收入与达到一定收入再分配目的的同时，使市场效率损失达到最小和社会福利工数达到最少，从而充分实现效率与公平两大目标。个人所得税优化的内容包括：税制模式的选择，纳税人的范围、费用扣除和免税项目及税率等四个方面；企业所得税优化一是要建立法人所得税制，二是要制定统一的二档比例税率，三是要建立税前扣除制度，改变税法从属于财务制度的状况，四是进一步完善所得税的财政体制改革，将企业所得税作为中央与地方的共享税，统一税基，分别确定税率，分别征收管理，相应调整增值税在中央与地方之间的分配比例，保证财政收入的合理性，适当降低税率，巩固税基，增加企业所得税在整个税种结构中的比例。     

Adaptive market efficiency of agricultural commodity futures contracts

In this paper we investigate the adaptive market efficiency of the agricultural commodity futures market, using a sample of eight futures contracts. Using a battery of nonlinear tests, we uncover the nonlinear serial dependence in the returns series. We run the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to uncover the moments in which the nonlinear serial dependence, and therefore adaptive market efficiency, occurs for our sample.     

Value added tax non-compliance in the car market

We examine value added tax (VAT) non-compliance in the European Union (EU) car market. This issue is of paramount importance because of the loss of VAT revenue, the profound distortion of market mechanisms, and the dangerous variety of fraudulent schemes employed. In addition to the usual VAT fraudulent schemes on intra-community trade, the special regimes, and the different regulations for the sale of motor vehicles in the EU member states per se, favour non-compliance in the car market. Non-compliance also takes advantage of the lack of adequate and prompt information exchange among the tax administrations of different countries and, within each country, between the tax administrations and their departments responsible for motor vehicles. We highlight the fact that the current measures are insufficient to fight VAT non-compliance and that the new rules proposed in the ‘definitive VAT system’ are inadequate to control the proliferation of scams in the car market. Accordingly, we suggest more substantial measures: well-targeted and prompt cross-checks through archives and databases, and the monitoring of their effectiveness; electronic invoices; real-time exchanges of information between the different tax and transport authorities; and increased harmonisation of the special VAT schemes that aim to eliminate one of the most exploited opportunities for illicit gain, to the detriment of the EU member states.     

Calibrating a market model with stochastic volatility to commodity and interest rate risk

Based on the multi-currency LIBOR Market Model, this paper constructs a hybrid commodity interest rate market model with a stochastic local volatility function allowing the model to simultaneously fit the implied volatility surfaces of commodity and interest rate options. Since liquid market prices are only available for options on commodity futures, rather than forwards, a convexity correction formula for the model is derived to account for the difference between forward and futures prices. A procedure for efficiently calibrating the model to interest rate and commodity volatility smiles is constructed. Finally, the model is fitted to an exogenously given correlation structure between forward interest rates and commodity prices (cross-correlation). When calibrating to options on forwards (rather than futures), the fitting of cross-correlation preserves the (separate) calibration in the two markets (interest rate and commodity options), while in the case of futures a (rapidly converging) iterative fitting procedure is presented. The fitting of cross-correlation is reduced to finding an optimal rotation of volatility vectors, which is shown to be an appropriately modified version of the ‘orthonormal Procrustes’ problem in linear algebra. The calibration approach is demonstrated in an application to market data for oil futures.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

Measurement of market integration and arbitrage

We develop a measurement theory of market integration, basedon two notions of 'integrated markets'. First, two markets cannotbe perfectly integrated in any sense if one can construct twoportfolios, one from each market, that have identical payoffsbut different prices. In that case, the law of one price isviolated across the markets. Second, they cannot be integratedin a stronger sense if there are cross-market arbitrage opportunities.Two measures of market integration are developed, respectivelyreflecting these notions. The smaller the measures, the moreclosely integrated (in the respective senses) the markets. Amongother things, they are interpreted as measuring pricing discrepancybetween markets.