台湾《消费者债务清理条例》评析及对大陆出台个人破产制度的展望

随着中国大陆地区社会主义市场经济体制的确立和深化,无论是在法律制度的设计上还是广大群众的观念接受程度,都需要一定的磨合期,再加上城乡二元结构的差异,使得中国大陆在个人破产制度的推动上难度较大。本文尝试借鉴台湾经验,期望对未来中国大陆个人破产制度的增修作一比较参考,使整体市场退出机制更加完善。     

Reporting Discretion and the Choice of Fresh Start Values in Companies Emerging from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Using a sample of seventy-two firms that adopted fresh start reporting upon their emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, I test whether management estimates of fresh start equity values are misstated and whether such misstatements are related to characteristics of individual firms' bankruptcy process. I predict that the reported fresh start value reflects a tension between managerial incentives to promote the acceptance of the plan of reorganization, and incentives to enhance future reported performance. I test whether the tendency to overstate the fresh start equity value is increasing in factors affecting the acceptance of the reorganization plan (i.e., bankruptcy claimants' relative bargaining power) and decreasing in factors affecting postbankruptcy reported performance (i.e., the probability of future losses). I find that, relative to the market value of equity immediately after emergence from Chapter 11, the fresh start equity value is, on average, understated by about 4%. The difference between the fresh start equity value and market value also exhibits significant cross-sectional variation (an average absolute error of 11%). Consistent with my first prediction, the misstatement is increasing in the relative bargaining power of junior claimants. In contrast to my second prediction, the misstatement is also increasing in the likelihood of future reported losses. This result suggests that firms that are more likely to experience postbankruptcy financial distress are more concerned with obtaining acceptance for their plan than with the effects of the fresh start equity value on postbankruptcy performance. Finally, I document that the misstatement in the fresh start equity value is negatively related to whether firms have undergone prepackaged bankruptcies, and positively related to replacement of a prebankruptcy CEO.     

A Note on the Determinants of the Outcomes of Bankruptcy Petitions: Evidence From Korea

This study provides evidence on the determinants of the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions using Korean firms for the period from 1977 to 1994. We hypothesize that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, longer existing period, larger size, lower operating risk, and more goodwill would have higher survival prospects from the bankruptcy petition. The results from logit estimation confirm this hypothesis. The free assets, existing period, firm size, and goodwill have positive influence on the probability of reorganization, while the liquid assets, and operating risk are negatively related to the probability of reorganization. Among these variables, the free assets percentage is the most significant at the one percent level in determining the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions. This reveals that a bankrupt firm with more free assets tends to be reorganized because it would be easy to obtain additional financing needed for the successful reorganization. The liquid assets and existing period are also significant at the five percent level. We conclude that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, and longer existing period would have higher survival prospects in Korea.     

The Interaction of Solvency with Liquidity and its Association with Bankruptcy Emergence

Prior research has shown that accounting information available prior to a bankruptcy is associated with the likelihood of bankruptcy. We show that additionally, the accounting information available prior to bankruptcy is associated with whether or not a firm will emerge from bankruptcy. We predict that firms that exhibit low solvency risk and high liquidity risk are most likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Firms that exhibit high solvency risk and high liquidity risk are predicted to be least likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Cross–sectionally, our results support these predictions, but our findings differ across large and small firms.     

The Economic Impact of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy versus Out‐of‐Court Restructuring

Companies in financial distress have usually been able to choose between working out an agreement with their creditors (“private restructuring”) or entering into more expensive and lengthier formal Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. But 2015 rulings in two cases by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York may force distressed firms to enter Chapter 11 rather than seek negotiated out‐of‐court settlements. Using a large sample of U.S. companies that experienced financial difficulty during the period 2006–2014, the authors found that the companies that filed for bankruptcy and went through Chapter 11 proceedings experienced significantly more job losses and reductions of economic output than companies achieving out‐of‐court restructurings, both overall and on a per‐case basis. The authors' estimates of the overall losses in output associated with Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases ranged as high as 2.3% of 2014 GDP, as compared to at most 0.3% of GDP in the case of out‐of‐court negotiations. At the same time, the authors estimate that as many as 2.2 million job losses were attributable to cases involving bankruptcies while the out‐of‐court cases were associated with the loss of at most about 300,000 jobs. But, as the authors concede, these findings are exaggerated by a clear self‐selection bias—one that stems from the well‐documented tendency of more fundamentally profitable, and hence more solvent, companies to choose private restructuring over bankruptcy. Despite this limitation, the study provides a useful point of departure for future studies that aim to quantify the costs to the U.S. economy of limiting or removing the option of companies with valuable operations but the “wrong” capital structures to work out their financial difficulties outside of the bankruptcy court.     

中国民营上市公司债务融资破产威胁功效的实证研究

以2002～2007年陷入财务危机的民营上市公司（ST公司）为研究样本．通过相关分析实证检验了中国债务融资的破产威胁功效.研究发现,中国民营上市公司债务融资总体上对财务状况恶劣的公司起到了债务治理作用,发挥了破产威胁功效。短期债务能够对陷入财务危机的民营上市公司起到改善业绩的作用,较好地发挥破产威胁功效,而长期债务未能发挥破产威胁作用。银行贷款能够促进陷入财务困境的民营上市公司改善业绩,发挥破产威胁功效,而商业信用却没能发挥破产威胁功效。     

The Accuracy and Incremental Information Content of Audit Reports in Predicting Bankruptcy

A series of corporate failures in which auditors failed to warn about impending bankruptcy led to widespread criticism of the UK auditing profession during the last recession. For a sample of 976 quoted companies (1987–94), this paper shows that there are two reasons why audit reports were not accurate or informative indicators of bankruptcy. First, audit reports poorly reflected publicly available information about the probability of bankruptcy. Secondly, strong persistence in audit reporting reduced the accuracy of audit reports     

自然人债务清理咨询制度研究:域外经验与启示

我国市场经济的发展,迫切需要自然人债务清理咨询制度的建立,这也是自然人市场主体有效处理债务危机与我国破产立法体系完善的必然选择.诸多市场经济国家结合本地实践适用了不同的债务咨询规范.我国自然人债务清理咨询制度的建构,适宜区分正式自然人破产制度建立的前后时段,借鉴美国经验,设置任意性的破产程序前置咨询制度,并与纳入破产程...     

The Impact of Financing Surpluses and Large Financing Deficits on Tests of the Pecking Order Theory

This paper extends the basic pecking order model of Shyam-Sunder and Myers by separating the effects of financing surpluses, normal deficits, and large deficits. Using a panel of US firms over the period 1971-2005, we find that the estimated pecking order coefficient is highest for surpluses (0.90), lower for normal deficits (0.74), and lowest when firms have large financing deficits (0.09). These findings shed light on two empirical puzzles: 1) small firms, although having the highest potential for asymmetric information, do not behave according to the pecking order theory, and 2) the pecking order theory has lost explanatory power over time. We provide a solution to these puzzles by demonstrating that the frequency of large deficits is higher in smaller firms and increasing over time. We argue that our results are consistent with the debt capacity in the pecking order model.     

美国商业地产融资情况及对经济的影响

无论是参与主体、融资结构、证券化率,还是银行贷款质量,美国商业地产融资状况与住房市场相比均存在较大差异,从而对房地产市场本身以及宏观经济产生不同的影响。次贷危机以来,美国商业地产也经历了上世纪90年代以来最大的波动,一度有观点认为商业地产可能是令美国经济受损的第二只鞋,监管当局也对商业地产市场衰退拖累银行体系和整体经济存在担忧,而新近发生的迪拜事件再次使商业地产问题引起公众的关注。本文从市场基本面和融资的角度,分析了美国商业地产运行现状及对经济的影响。     

盈余管理对企业融资约束的影响研究

本文基于信息不对称、委托代理及预算软约束理论,以2011-2014年的沪深A股上市公司为样本,检验企业盈余管理对融资约束的影响.研究表明:应计盈余管理加剧了企业的融资约束状况,但是外部投资者没能有效识别真实盈余管理,其反而缓解了企业的融资约束状况;国有企业弱化了盈余管理对融资约束的影响;在竞争激烈的行业中,应计盈余管理对融资约束的加剧作用表现更强,而真实盈余管理对融资约束的缓解作用被削弱.     

征信体系对中小企业融资的影响分析

本文研究银行信贷管理中对中小企业信用信息的需求,重点是基层银行了解中小企业最可依赖的信息来源和信息类型等方面;分析征信系统在降低银企交易成本、增加中小企业融资机会和形成信用约束机制中的影响;就进一步完善征信系统,促进中小企业融资提出政策建议.     

Debtor-in-possession financing and the resolution of uncertainty in Chapter 11 reorganizations

This paper investigates the use of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing by firms reorganizing under Chapter 11. A model is developed in which there is asymmetric information between the creditors of a distressed firm and its management. In this context, it is demonstrated that reliance on DIP financing resolves informational asymmetries regarding the true economic value of distressed firms. The model's conclusions are empirically supported in the paper and by results of extant research. The signaling role of DIP financing is evidenced both by the positive stock price reaction to DIP announcements and the fact that firms employing DIP financing have more successful reorganizations.     

我国商业银行经营投资银行业务对风险影响的实证研究

本文以2009-2018年19家商业银行为研究对象,运用波动性分析、相关性分析及面板数据回归分析方法,考察了经营投资银行业务对银行风险的影响。研究结果表明,投资银行收入无明显周期性趋势,波动性明显高于利息净收入,经营投资银行业务会加剧银行业收入的不确定性,但由于收入占比较小,投资银行业务并非造成我国银行业收入波动的主要因素。多数银行的投资银行收入与利息净收入表现为正相关性,银行难以通过经营投资银行业务实现风险分散目的。投资银行业务对银行风险影响的回归结果较为显著,随着投资银行收入在银行收入结构中的权重越来越大,银行多元化收入程度随之加深,银行风险也随之下降。     

保险公司破产的经济影响与监管研究:来自美国的经验及启示

基于美国保险业的破产数据和文献资料,分析阐述了美国保险业的破产概况和保险公司破产的经济影响,剖析了保险公司的破产原因,考察了美国的保险监管对破产保险公司的管理处置措施,最后对我国保险监管提出了对策建议。     

融资约束、代理成本对企业R&D投资的影响——基于我国上市公司的经验证据

本文以2009-2012年中国上市公司年报数据为研究样本,基于欧拉方程投资模型,采用Kumbhakar and Parmeter(2009)提出的双边随机边界法实证检验融资约束和代理成本对企业R&D投资的影响。结果发现:融资约束与R&D投资显著负相关,代理成本与R&D投资显著正相关。即融资约束导致R&D投资不足,代理成本导致R&D投资过度。进一步分析发现:融资约束使上市公司R&D投资的绝对值(相对值)整体上较最优水平低42.41%(43.27%),代理成本使上市公司R&D投资的绝对值(相对值)整体上较最优水平高22.48%(21.73%),二者抵消后最终表现为净低于最优水平的19.93%(21.54%)。这种差异在不同地区、行业、公司性质及年度里略有不同。由此可见,我国上市公司尚未陷入R&D投资的"加速化陷阱",仍有必要加大R&D投资。论文最后针对研究中发现的问题提出了相应的对策和建议。     

The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit availability. Data from Prosper.com, a peer‐to‐peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, indicate that homeowners in states with declining house prices experience higher interest rates, greater credit rationing, and faster delinquency. We find especially large effects for subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important role in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.     

我国《保险保障基金管理办法》的不足及完善

为将我国保险市场建成一个有进有出、优胜劣汰、动态平衡的市场。为使市场主体平稳退出市场时最大限度保护广大被保险人的利益,2004年底保监会出台了《保险保障基金管理办法》。但解读该《办法》,发现其存在诸多不足,文章针对这些不足提出了对策建议。     

商业银行规模与中小企业信贷融资问题综述

近年来,中小企业融资难这一世界性问题已得到广泛关注。国内外学者从不同的角度对这一问题进行了分析与研究,银行规模对中小企业信贷融资的影响分析是中小企业融资问题的一个重要方面。基于此,本文系统回顾和梳理了国内外关于商业银行规模对中小企业信贷融资影响的相关研究成果,并对该领域展望了进一步的研究方向。希望能够为学者更加深入研究此问题时提供有益的参考,从而有利于我国商业银行治理结构的优化调整,改善中小企业贷款难问题。     

中国银行业税负比较、绩效影响与对策选择

本文通过历史比较与国际比较,指出中国银行业虽然综合税负不断下降,但仍较国外偏重,进而运用面板数据模型论证了相对过重的税收负担对中国银行业经营绩效产生负效应,最后,提出降低我国银行业税负的若干政策建议,以应对经济全球化和国际金融危机的双重挑战,提高中国银行业在开放金融体系中的竞争力。