从实体经济层面探析次贷危机成因——兼对美国经济所受冲击之客观评价

美国次贷危机的成因,从实体经济层面看,是由于美国由制造业经济转变为服务经济,使得美国经济增长模式转变为消费拉动,而服务经济下收入分配偏向于知识型阶层的特征,使得美国多数家庭的消费以借贷消费为主.因此,在服务业为主的经济结构下,当美国货币政策扩张引起资产价格上涨却不再引发通货膨胀时,由资产价格上升刺激借贷消费需求,就可以拉动经济强劲增长.由此,美国进入一种扩张货币政策、资产价格上涨、借贷消费需求增加、经济增长的循环中,而一旦资产价格下跌,个人偿付能力出现问题,就会引发金融系统的危机,经济也会由消费不足陷入衰退.     

刍议中国劳动力价格与经济增长路径转变

改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令世人瞩目的成就,与此同时,经济运行中不和谐的因素也日益增加.投资和消费的比例关系失衡,表现为投资率偏高而消费率偏低.从劳动者收入入手研究投资、消费比例问题,在研究中国劳动力价格的现状后得出结论:相对于居民生活密切相关的粮价、油价、水电费、通讯费、教育费、医疗费来说,中国劳动力价格太低,因此,提高劳动力价格,增加其收入才是破解投资消费失衡的"密钥",也是促进中国经济从依赖投资的增长方式向依靠消费拉动经济增长方式的增长路径转变的"治本之道".     

像重视生产力那样重视消费力

根据科学发展观的要义,转变经济增长方式的一个重要方面是由现有的主要依靠投资、出口拉动转向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动,这对经济发展方式的转变具有标志性意义。长期以来,我国的经济增长基本是靠投资需求和出口需求的增长来拉动的,消费需求对经济增长的拉动力严重不足,由此产生的增长质量不高的效应已经显现。增强消费对经济增长拉动力的重要途径是提高消费力,要像重视生产力那样重视消费力。     

略论发展土特产品贸易拉动内需的有效途径

起源于美国的金融风暴,造成了全球性的经济衰退,抑制了国外市场的消费需求,从而影响到中国的出口增长.依靠内需保证经济的增长,成为关注点.要拉动内需,就必须首先保证居民有足够的收入.基于这样的背景,发展"土特产品"的贸易,带动地方经济发展,既能增加老百姓的收入,又开拓了拉动内需的动力,同时还能在低速的经济大环境中,找到扩大贸易规模、调整贸易结构的途径.     

2015年后中国消费政策的选择:结构性拉动消费

2015年之后,中国仍将面临着促进消费拉动经济增长,低碳消费保护环境的双重压力.鼓励低碳消费,抑制奢侈浪费,鼓励低收入者的消费、稳定中产阶级的消费、抑制高收入群体的奢侈性消费和炫耀性消费,即结构性拉动消费必然成为一种可行的选择.结构性拉动消费对短期经济增长可能具有负面效应,但对长期经济增长具有正面作用.低收入群体由于物质消费的增加而使自身的福利水平提高,富裕群体由于通过帮助弱势群体、投入社会公益、进行生态环境保护等消费同样可以提高自身的福利.结构性消费并不会降低居民幸福感.客观存在的收入差距为结构性拉动消费提供了可能.     

家庭债务问题研究综述

家庭债务(household debt)一般由住房抵押贷款(residential mortgage loans)和消费者信贷(consumer credit)两部分构成,其中前者占大部分。通常用家庭负债与可支配收入的比率来衡量家庭债务状况。近20多年来,许多国家家庭债务增长迅猛,这好像为家庭一生消费带来了便利,但是,已增债务增强了家户部门对利率、收入和资产价格变化的敏感性。居民消费支出对预期收入的变化也更敏感,这潜在地提高了消费支出的不稳定性,从而影响整个经济     

资产泡沫的成因与政策工具选择

资产泡沫具体表现为资产价格的不正常波动或者剧烈波动,由此引起风险积累和金融危机,并导致经济出现衰退。资产自身的特征、市场机制的缺陷及投资者的心理偏差等是资产泡沫产生的重要原因。货币政策作为宏观经济政策的组成部分,可以通过资产价格影响公司和家庭消费与投资行为。货币政策通过影响股票价格、房地产价格、外汇等资产价格影响实体经济。     

中国城镇居民收入层次与消费弹性分析

消费是宏观经济的主要变量。作为需求力量，不仅直接对经济增长起着拉动作用，而且还会通过其他经济变量的作用间接拉动经济增长。因此如何启动消费、拉动内需以促进经济持续增长就成了我们关心的一个重要问题。本文对中国城镇居民的消费结构变化以及消费弹性进行了研究，分析了城镇居民收入等级对消费的影响，并对如何促进消费提出了作者的看法。     

略论我国经济增长动力结构的调整对策

经济增长过分依赖投资和出口拉动,已经成为制约我国经济又好又快地持续发展的主要问题.调整我国经济增长的动力结构,构建以国内消费为主的新的经济增长动力体系,既是实现我国经济又好又快持续增长的当务之急,也是保持我国经济持续增长和国家经济安全的长远之计.调整我国经济增长的动力结构,一要着力调整分配关系,二要进一步建立和健全社会保障制度,三要抑制并降低畸高的房价.     

以扩大消费需求为着力点调整我国总需求结构

随着国家政策的倾斜,投资与净出口占GDP比重逐步增加,成为拉动国民经济增长的主要动力,而消费需求对国民经济的贡献率不断降低。单纯依托投资与净出口拉动的经济增长模式正逐步不可持续,需求结构转型已成为今后发展过程中面临的重要议题。2011年较高的通货膨胀抑制了居民的消费意愿,而信贷紧缩、房产调控等因素在短期内也影响到部分耐用品零售,这导致名义与实际消费增速较2010年出现明显下降。在"十二五"期间有效扩大消费需求,调整经济结构,稳定经济增长,必须采取有力措施。     

The impact of oil prices on income and energy

The major determinant of real income growth in Korea is real oil prices, followed by money supply, exchange rates, energy consumption, and government spending. Over the longer horizon, the effects of exchange rates, oil prices, government spending, and money supply become more pronounced. For energy consumption, the most important factor is oil prices, followed by exchange rates, government spending, money supply, and income. For the association between energy consumption and real income, energy consumption influences real income growth only through energy consumption, while real income affects energy consumption only through the error correction term. The findings of the study thus suggest that the level of economic activity and energy consumption mutually influence each other.     

Interpretable asset markets?

In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises—that is, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty. Moreover, future earnings growth rates are sharply predicted by current price-earnings ratios. It seems that much of the variation in asset prices can be attributed to fluctuations in economic uncertainty and expected cash-flow growth. This empirical evidence is consistent with the implications of existing parametric general equilibrium models. Hence, the channels of fluctuating economic uncertainty and expected growth seem important for interpreting asset markets.     

Time–frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices

Commodity and asset prices have a well-documented effect on economic growth as manifested through various channels. At the same time, the business cycle influences the commodity and asset prices. Whereas empirical evidence on the effect of commodity and asset prices on the long-run economic growth is ambiguous, most of the previous researches highlight a positive correlation in the short run. The aim of this article is to disentangle the short- and long-run co-movements between US historical business cycles and commodity and asset prices over the period 1859–2013. For this purpose, we use a time–frequency approach and we test the historical influence of oil, gold, housing and stock prices over the output growth. In contrast to other studies, we control for the effect of other prices and monetary conditions, using the wavelet partial coherency. In line with the previous works, we discover that co-movements between economic growth and commodity and assets prices manifest especially in the short run. We also find that stock returns and housing prices have a more powerful effect on the US economic growth rate than the oil and gold prices. The long-run co-movements are documented especially around the World War II. Finally, when controlling for the influence of the interest rate, inflation and other commodity and asset prices, co-movements become weaker in the short run. In general, the oil and housing prices lead the GDP growth, the US output leads the gold prices, while there is no clear causality direction between business cycle and stock prices.     

Consumption patterns in Sri Lanka: a decomposition analysis

Knowing consumer reaction to changes in prices and income is important in formulating microeconomic policies, such as public utility prices and commodity taxation. This paper analyses the consumption patterns of consumer goods grouped into eight broad commodities in Sri Lanka during the period 1975–2016, using a system-wide framework. The analysis indicates that Sri Lankan consumers allocate more than half of their income to food and nearly four fifths of their income to food, housing, and transport combined. The estimated income and own-price elasticities reveal that food, housing, medical care, and transport are necessities; clothing, durables and recreation are luxuries; and demand for all commodities is price inelastic except for recreation. To investigate the consumption growth pattern, we decomposed the growth in consumption and change in budget shares of the eight commodities into income, relative price, and change in taste. We also simulated per capita consumption expenditure of the eight commodities under various policy scenarios and found that income growth has played a significant role in Sri Lankan consumption patterns.     

消费传导视角下资产 价格对物价水平的影响

本文在生命周期-持久收入（LC PIH）模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响，发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为，进而影响物价水平。在此基础上，本文运用ARDL UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响，实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系，房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素，但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。     

The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects

We investigate the long run relationship between private consumption, disposable income and wealth approximated by equity and house price indices for a panel of 15 industrialized countries. Consumption, income and wealth are cointegrated in their common components. The impact of house prices exceeds the effect arising from equity wealth. The long run vector is broadly in line with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis, if house prices are allowed to enter the relationship. At the idiosyncratic level, a long run equilibrium is detected between consumption and income, i.e. the wealth variable can be excluded. The income elasticity in the idiosyncratic relationship is significantly less than unity. Hence, the presence of wealth effects in consumption equations arises from the international integration of asset markets and points to the relevance of risk sharing activities of agents. Without sufficient opportunities, an increase in national saving rates would be expected, leading to a lower path of private consumption expenditures.     

房地产属性、收入差距与房价变动趋势

以往关于收入差距与房价之间关系的研究,较少兼顾房地产的消费与投资双重属性。文章基于双重属性的角度,首先从理论上阐述了收入差距与房价之间的动态关系。在经济发展水平较低的情况下,房地产的消费属性凸显,收入差距扩大会抑制房价上涨;随着经济的进一步发展,房地产单一属性不明显,收入差距变化对房价不存在显著影响;当经济发展水平较高时,房地产投资属性占优,收入差距扩大会促进房价上涨。进一步对理论结果进行实证研究发现,整体上我国收入差距与房价之间无显著相关关系,单一属性不明显;但就省际差异而言,在经济发展水平较高的省份,收入差距促进了房价上涨,而在经济发展水平较低的省份,收入差距则抑制了房价上涨。随着时间的变化,收入差距由抑制房价上涨转变为促进房价上涨。     

次贷危机对实体经济的影响及政策建议

2007年以来,美国次贷危机的影响进一步从金融层面传导到实体经济层面,危机的国际传导效应增大了全球经济的风险,国际经济形势更趋复杂.在此背景下,中国经济也不可避免地受到影响,其中主要体现在对出口、房地产及资产价格等方面.目前我国经济中存在着通胀增速过快及经济过热的双重压力,同时人民币又处于升值周期,这无疑加大了政府宏观调控政策实施的难度.次贷危机也对全球特别是中国的监管体制提出了挑战.     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

Labor income,borrowing constraints,and equilibrium asset prices

Summary We develop a duality approach to study an individual's optimal consumption and portfolio policy when the individual has limited opportunities to borrow against future labor income and cannot totally insure the risk of income fluctuations. The individual's intertemporal consumption and portfolio problem is cast in a continuous-time setting under uncertainty. We transform the individual's intertemporal problem into a dual shadow prices problem that solves the shadow prices for the individual's optimal consumption plan or equivalently the individual's intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. We show that the shadow prices process can be expressed as a product of a martingale and a decreasing process (normalized by the bond price). The existence of an optimal solution to the individual's intertemporal consumption and portfolio problem is established via duality. The duality approach also allows us to characterize in a sample way the individual's optimal consumption and portfolio policy in the presence of labor income and borrowing constraints. Equilibrium implications of borrowing constraints on asset prices are also discussed in the paper.This is a revised version of an earlier paper, entitled Consumption and Portfolio Decisions with Labor Income and Borrowing Constraints. We thank George Constandinides, Ayman Hindy, and Chi-fu Huang for helpful comments. We also thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Batterymarch Fellowship Program (for Hua He) is gratefully acknowledged.