Rethinking Industrial Policy for Low Income Countries

Abstract: The governments of low income countries should be giving more attention to ‘industrial policy’ than they and the aid donors have given in the past quarter century. (‘Industrial policy’ means any sectorally or activity‐targeted interventions, including in agriculture and services.) The first step is to discard the common assumption that industrial policy is about ‘picking winners’. The second step is to realize that industrial policy can be done ‘big’ or ‘small’, and by ‘leading the market’ or by ‘following the market’. It can be tailored to the available resources and state capacity. The third step is to see that the key issues of industrial policy are less to do with ‘what activities should be encouraged?’, or ‘what sorts of policy instruments are best?’, and more to do with, ‘how do we organize a process of discovery of sensible objectives and policies?’, and ‘how do we organize a constant nudging of producers to upgrade, diversify, link up with foreign firms?’ (where the nudging effort has to be targeted at some activities and sectors more than others). The paper illustrates with East Asian examples. One of the good effects of the current global crisis is that it has shaken confidence in the virtues of lightly regulated markets and free capital movements, and opened the way to a less ideologically charged debate about the role of the state in development—in which thinking is not precluded by easy jeers like ‘governments can't pick winners’ or ‘maybe the East Asians can do it but you can’t, so you have nothing to learn about industrial policy from them’.     

A ‘socialist’ economy in a capitalist world

Contending views about the ‘threats’ and ‘opportunities’ relating to China’s economic rise reflect the complex and, for many, confusing role of the state in China’s reform and development process. This in turn relates to a marked difference between China’s official perception of ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics’ and alternative views regarding the nature of its emerging capitalist system. This glaring gap in perceptions is problematic in an increasingly globalised world, complicating debates about what China should and will do to rebalance its domestic economy how other nations should and will react to the recent surge in Chinese investment overseas. This paper reflects on these debates in the context of China’s multifaceted and ever-evolving economic system.     

Narratives from a wetland: Sustainable management in Lukanga,Zambia

Wetlands are a key livelihood resource in southern Africa. Historically they have been managed using local knowledge systems, but these systems have in many instances been undermined by colonial and postcolonial legal requirements. The IUCN's Ramsar initiative, supported by organisations such as BirdLife International and the WWF, seeks to protect wetland resources. This qualitative study examined the political ecology of the Kapukupuku and Waya areas of the Lukanga wetlands in Zambia, designated a Ramsar site. This designation has given rise to competing ‘narratives’ by politicians and local community leaders over how Lukanga should be managed and used, and the resulting conflict is threatening its sustainability. The paper warns that the various parties' arguments are value-laden and that power asymmetry threatens to exclude poor local communities. Policy must take power interests into account to ensure that developments in the name of the poor really do benefit the poor.     

Stimulating Growth and Investment in Africa: From Macro to Micro Reforms

Abstract: How do we stimulate investment and growth in Africa? This paper focuses on low‐income countries that are ‘good performers’ and not especially endowed with natural resources. Many of these countries have undertaken a set of economic reforms, and have recorded growth rates in per capita GDP of around 5 percent over the past 10 years. But some constraints to growth persist. We look at three things — how business environments create ‘external costs’ for firms and inhibit performance, how investors perceive the constraints to doing business, and the role of political economy factors especially in those countries with lagging indigenous business sectors. Our analysis of investment climate and other data leads us to several recommendations for governments, donors and the private sector itself, including the following: deepen macro reforms; build a strong, unified business forum; create incentives for more responsive governments; and improve risk mitigation and broaden this to domestic investors.     

Chinese leadership of macroeconomic policymaking in a multipolar world

This paper discusses the kind of leadership in global macroeconomic policymaking that China might provide. The paper describes a form of leadership, which I call ‘concerted unilateralism’, that enables countries to pursue their own objectives, in a way which they would not have been able to do if they were acting on their own, and enables them to achieve a higher level of welfare. I contrast such leadership this with a form of authoritarian leadership in which the leader imposes obligations on other countries which are to the disadvantage of those countries. I argue that China could provide leadership of the first kind, by making use of the G20 Mutual Assessment Process, or G20MAP. In the short term, China might do this by consolidating the ‘2-in-5’ action plan, which Australia instituted within the G20MAP when it was Australia was President of the G20. In the longer term, China might do this by ensuring that there is convergence between the G20MAP and China's own One-Belt-One-Road strategy for international engagement in trade and finance.     

The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.     

Local tourism value chain linkages as pro-poor tools for regional development in western Uganda

Building on the model of Meyer [(2007). Pro-Poor tourism: from leakages to linkages. A conceptual framework for creating linkages between the accommodation sector and ‘poor’ neighbouring communities. Current Issues in Tourism 10(6), 558–83], this paper focuses on the regional development potential of local linkages with the supply chain and community partnerships of established tourism businesses in western Uganda. Results show that supply-related inconsistencies of local produce undermine the existence of supply chain linkages with local farmers, and favour business linkages with local intermediary suppliers, dominantly shaping the regional development potential of supply chain linkages in western Uganda. Yet, this research found several ‘windows of opportunity’ for local suppliers to connect to the tourism value chain. Results on community partnerships suggest that most businesses do not move beyond the absolute minimum partnership intensity that is required to be able to strategically use for marketing purposes and obtain a unique selling proposition. Finally, our research exposes the complexity of locating responsibility among different stakeholders of the value chain in suggested paths for (regional) development.     

我国参与国际碳金融市场面临的问题及对策

当前,应对气候变化已成为全球各领域关注的问题,其中市场机制和金融工具发挥着重要的作用。本文将从我国参与国际碳金融市场现状谈起,分析我国参与发达国家维持的碳金融规则、秩序时面临的问题,并给出相应的对策。     

The Role of China in the Global Strategy of Multinational Enterprises

This paper moves from the general to the particular. First, it examines the differential speed of globalization in different types of market – specifically markets in finance, goods and services, and finally labour markets. It then analyses the location and ownership strategies of multinational enterprises (MNEs), both as regards individual national markets and then in terms of the interaction between national markets (the ‘local/global’ spectrum). This analytical framework is applied to the place of China in the global strategy of MNEs. This application illuminates the role of DFI (direct foreign investment) in China and illustrates the peculiarities of China's place in the global system. The distortions in China's domestic system interact with the global strategies of MNEs to produce several interesting results, including: (1) the importance of MNEs’ ownership strategy; (2) non-optimal location decisions; (3) the ‘excessive internalization’ of activities in China; and (4) the growing importance of China as a location for DFI and, in future, the potential for growth of outward DFI from China.     

2012年全球风电发展现状及未来发展趋势预测

随着能源格局变化,在着力提高能源供应安全,积极应对气候变化,寻求新的经济增长点的大背景下,风能受到了世界各国的高度重视,全球风电产业处于蓬勃发展阶段。到2012年,全球累计风电装机容量达到282,275MW。文章总结了2012年全球风电发展情况并对未来几年的发展进行了预测。     

价值观匹配对员工应对组织变革的影响研究：多个模型的比较

以往探讨员工应对组织变革的研究忽视了组织环境中一些长期稳定的因素,也缺乏从人与环境交互的角度来考虑员工的行为策略.文章试图探索个人—组织价值观匹配对员工应对组织变革的影响,并考虑员工变革承诺在这一影响过程中的作用.来自总共297份问卷的数据分析结果表明,价值观匹配能够显著影响员工应对变革的策略选择,而员工变革承诺则在这一影响过程中起部分中介作用.这一结论提醒企业的管理者可以通过预社会化和社会化的策略提高员工与组织的价值观匹配,以引导员工在变革中的应对策略选择.     

Mainstreaming sustainable adaptation to climate change into municipal planning: An analysis from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Municipalities are well positioned to support adaptation of vulnerable people to climate change; however, they seldom integrate climate change into their planning for social development. The building of adaptive capacity for sustainable adaptation requires that municipalities understand and mainstream climate change into their plans, and develop context-specific adaptation strategies that address existing social development issues. A desktop analysis was conducted to compare the planning landscape in six District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, focusing on Municipal Integrated Development Plans (IDPs). A scoring system was developed for comparing the IDPs of the municipalities, based on levels of context-specific information about climate change, mainstreaming of climate change with other development concerns, and vertical integration across district and local municipalities, amongst other themes. Overall, the mainstreaming of climate change in municipal IDPs in the Eastern Cape remains weak, and requires critical attention if sustainable adaptation is to be achieved.     

The ten commandments of renewable energy analysis

This paper presents a series of 10 analytical ‘Commandments’ intended to guide the global community of planners and energy professionals in their search for new sources of renewable energy, especially for the poor. Although technically speaking, there are numerous new energy systems which could be applied to the daily tasks of the poor, the author's emphasis is on finding new systems which must fit socially and economically as well as technically if they are to do more good than harm. Thus, the search for new systems of renewable energy must be ‘reality-led’ rather than ‘technology-driven’.     

The development of the ‘electronics complex’ and government policies in Brazil

This paper reports some of the results of research conducted at the Instituto de Economia Industrial of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro on the pattern of development of two industries of the ‘electronics complex’ — electronic data processing equipment (EDPE) and electronic semiconductor components (SCC). The industries were selected because of their technological and economic importance and for their potential inter-relatedness, as well as for policy-related reasons.The research focused on the analysis of the international characteristics of the two industries (based mainly on secondary sources) and an empirical investigation of their pattern of competition in Brazil. Following a brief characterization of the ‘electronics complex,’ the next section of this paper describes the evolution of imports, local production and exports and the pattern of competition in the Brazilian market. The third section analyzes in more detail the inter-relations between consumers, international firms, local producers and Government policies, focusing mainly on the EDPE industry ‘infant-industry’ experience. The last section focuses on the intended policy for the SCC industry, exploring the implications of industrial interdependence and drawing from the experience of the EDPE industry. The article concludes by presenting some requisite characteristics of policy for fostering an ‘electronics complex’, which may be useful not only for Brazil, but for other LDCs as well.     

Place,belonging and population displacement: new ecological reserves in Mozambique and South Africa

This paper investigates the effect the proclamation of conserved areas in southern Africa may have on the ability of inhabitants in these areas to retain control of ancestral territory and to access long-standing livelihood options in the future. In particular, it examines how two national parks (in South Africa and Mozambique) effect a change in ownership and land use, and the resulting impact of such a change on local socio-cultural patterns of identity, or ‘place’. This is achieved by examining the dilemma confronting social and ecological scientists in planning these parks – where interventionist policies often deny customary tenure of land and thus prevent a thorough understanding of any historical claims to land prior to actual proclamation of the area. Accordingly, this paper argues for greater cooperation between social and ecological researchers in order to prevent the politicisation of national reserves and the intense opposition that has accompanied most instances of population displacement in the subcontinent.     

Policy-makers’ perceptions of the tourism–climate change nexus: Policy needs and constraints in Botswana

Tourism is a key sector for most southern African economies endowed with unique natural capital, and the industry is increasingly being used for socio-economic development and diversification of national economies in the region. However, it has become clearly evident that the natural capital upon which the sector depends is highly vulnerable to climate change. This has created urgent governmental needs to take action through policy formulation and implementation. The paper uses in-depth interviews to determine Botswana policy-makers’ perceptions of climate change and tourism with the aim of determining policy needs and constraints. The results reveal that the policy-makers do see climate change as a concern requiring urgent establishment of relevant policy. However, they foresee inadequate information as well as uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change on the natural capital. This may hamper the formulation and effective implementation of such a policy.     

观念创新与企业发展

随着经营环境的发展变化和竞争强度的提高,企业在应对环境剧变和竞争压力的过程中,一系列新的企业经营观念正在被创新出来,对企业的发展产生了根本性的影响。本文采取对比的方式说明这些新的观念是如何突破旧的观念在推动企业的发展。     

Belonging and community: understandings of "home" and "friends" among the English poor, 1750-1850

This article is based on unique ‘narratives of the poor’, that is, letters from poor people to their parishes of settlement, petitions to the London Refuge of the Destitute, and letters from mothers to the London Foundling Hospital, with supportive evidence from newspapers. These display fundamental concepts among the English poor, who were often poorly literate, and who comprised the majority of the population. Discussion focuses upon their understandings of ‘home’, ‘belonging’, ‘friends’, and ‘community’. These key concepts are related here to modern discussions, to set important concerns into historical perspective. ‘Friends’, valuably studied by sociologists such as Pahl, had a wide meaning in the past. ‘Home’ meant (alongside abode) one's parish of legal settlement, where one was entitled to poor relief under the settlement/poor laws. This was where one ‘belonged’. Ideas of ‘community’ were held and displayed even at a distance, among frequently migrant poor, who wrote to their parishes showing strong ties of attachment, right, and local obligation. This discussion explores these issues in connection with belonging and identity. It elucidates the meaning and working of poor law settlement, and is also an exploration of popular mentalities and the semi-literate ways in which these were expressed.     

Representations of Development in 19th and 20th Century indonesia: A Transport History Perspective

Contemporary debate in Indonesia over ‘people's economy’ and ‘globalisation’ recalls the vigorous 1950s debate over ‘dualism’. Taking as a case study the rise and eclipse of railways, this paper argues that the colonial phenomenon of dualism can with hindsight be reinterpreted as a phase in a previous cycle of globalisation. However, economic history has overlooked the remarkable vitality of the small-scale transport sector. Focus on the small-scale sector highlights the inadequacies of familiar paradigms and suggests the need to reconceptualise long-term socioeconomic change. This analysis has important implications for responses to the current wave of globalisation and how they may be manifest in a more democratic post-Soeharto Indonesia.