Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Unveiling the breakthrough potential of established technologies: an empirical investigation in the aerospace industry

The present article sheds new light on the role of established technologies as a driving force behind technological evolution, hence unveiling their breakthrough potential. Specifically, going against the conventional wisdom that only nascent technologies significantly shape future technological developments, we examine the likelihood that established technologies have to become breakthrough solutions. Furthermore, we also analyse if and how the breadth of knowledge base characterising those inventions influences this probability. Based on a sample of 21,000 patents belonging to the aerospace industry granted at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), our results reveal that established technologies have an inverted U-shaped effect on the likelihood of becoming breakthroughs, and that such relationship is negatively influenced by a wide knowledge breadth.     

Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories. Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet

This paper considers the Web as a big data container that can be used by Technology Observatories and administrations to track emerging issues and more specifically emerging technologies. It considers information that is available on the Internet for free from different sources, and proposes a framework that can be useful to characterise them and to detect patterns of dissemination. This framework is made up of 30 metrics obtained from different kinds of sources (general web, patents, scholars?…). Some of them are obtained directly as the number of hits retrieved by queries on a search engine, and other ones calculated by means of ratios. This paper contains the development of a complete case that utilises this framework to characterise emerging technologies included in the well-known Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, in this case the 2015 release¹ and to analyze patterns of dissemination of these technologies on the Internet.     

Technology transfer in the IT industry: A Korean perspective

Recently Korean Government announced ambitious IT strategy to establish Korea as one of leaders in world IT market. To implement this strategy, technology transfer from research lab to market should be successfully performed. This study is to identify factors influencing technology transfer and to examine contribution of these factors on success of technology transfer in Korean IT industry. Survey results show that technology project leaders evaluated “Concreteness of Technology” as the most influential factor for technology transfer, followed by “Communication Channels,” “Collaboration among Participants,” “Management Support,” “Government Support,” and “Incentives for Transfer.” Out of 135 technology transfer projects, respondents rated 33 projects as sustaining (28.44%), 38 as promoting (28.15%), 26 as demonstrating (19.26%), 27 in incubating (20.00%), and the remaining 7 in imaging stage (8.15%). This statistics means that 28.15% of technology transfer projects did not reach production stage. Regression analysis identifies that “Communication Channels,” “Management Support,” “Concreteness of Technology” “Sense of Common Purpose,” and “Awareness of Technology Transfer” were statistically significant in explaining success of technology transfer.     

Growth opportunities and trade credit: evidence from Chinese listed firms

Private firms in China have led the explosive growth of the country’s economy, but with restricted or no access to formal financing. It is puzzling that these firms use relatively less trade credit than their counterparts in developed countries. We argue that firms with more growth opportunities should rely mainly on internal financing owing to high asymmetric information, especially in a financial market environment biased towards state-owned enterprises (SOEs) such as China. To explore growth opportunities, these firms may reduce their level of trade credit in the trade-off they face in deciding where to invest. Using panel data of Chinese non-financial listed firms for the period 2003–2013, we find that the relationship between growth opportunities and trade credit (both accounts receivable and payable) is significantly negative and is more pronounced in private firms than in SOEs. Furthermore, we also find that subsequent to the new receivable pledge policy being introduced, Chinese firms with more growth opportunities have higher accounts receivable, but similar levels of accounts payable.     

Adoption of safer irrigation technologies and cropping patterns: Evidence from Southern Ghana

The new irrigation technologies introduced in sub-Saharan Africa aim at ensuring safer vegetable production when untreated waste water is used as irrigation water. This paper examines the adoption of safer irrigation technologies and crop choices among vegetable farmers, using cross-section data from urban Kumasi in Ghana. The study employed a two-stage conditional maximum likelihood approach to examine the impact of crop choices and farm-level characteristics on the adoption of safer irrigation technologies. The empirical results indicate that apart from household and farm characteristics such as access to extension agents, belonging to a farmer's organization and education, cropping patterns tend to influence adoption of irrigation technologies for safer vegetable production.     

Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies

Technology Assessment reflecting on R&D and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (> 10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socio-economic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media. In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool ‘roadmapping’ to contribute to the solution of this problem. This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe.     

The impact of old technologies on innovation: the case of the US biotechnology industry

This paper investigates the implications of a technology sourcing strategy maintaining a focus on the rediscovery of old technologies. Specifically, we study the different impact exerted by old technological solutions, distinguished on the basis of their organisational and industrial origins, on the innovation value. We develop a set of hypotheses about the impact exerted by four distinct types of old technological solutions (firm core technological heritage, firm lateral technological heritage, competitors’ technological heritage and others’ technological heritage) and test them on a sample of 1189 biotechnology patents registered at the US Patent and Trademark Office from 1979 to 2002. Results strongly support our hypotheses, revealing that: (1) using both firm core technological heritage and others’ technological heritage has an inverted U-shaped effect on innovation value; (2) employing firm lateral technological heritage is positively related to innovation value; (3) a negative relationship occurs between competitors’ core technological heritage and the value of subsequent innovations.     

知识溢出效应对企业技术能力的影响路径研究

在全球化知识经济的背景下,把握技术变化过程并不断发展新技术是企业赢得竞争的关键因素,具有更高技术能力并据其来提供新产品和服务的企业,才能够获得持续竞争优势。企业技术能力是企业在不断变化的环境中,通过使用、适应、改变现有技术以达到技术的有效利用和通过创造新技术来开发新产品或者新工艺的能力。文章将企业技术能力分解为技术开发能力和技术利用能力,并以二者为因变量,知识溢出各个效应为自变量,研究知识溢出效应的影响路径。文章通过实证调查共获得132个有效样本,研究结果表明,人力资源效应和竞争效应有利于技术开发能力成长,人力资源效应、示范效应和竞争效应有利于技术利用能力成长。合作效应、技术应用效应和市场开拓效应对企业技术能力的影响不显著。     

Technology adoption in response to changes in market conditions: Evidence from the US petroleum refining industry

This paper analyzes the determinants of the levels and rates of technology adoption for petroleum refineries that survived the period 1980–1989, during which the conditions of product demand and crude oil supply changed significantly. Regression models are specified to investigate the growth of technology-related capacity, the growth of technology complexity, and the rates of adoption estimated from a diffuse model of technology use. Both levels and rates of adoption are hypothesized to be affected by refinery size, regulatory status, elements of local markets, and geographical factors. Empirical results generally suggest that compared with the supply-side factors of crude oil sources and regulatory subsidies, refinery size and demand-side factors, such as total consumption, consumption growth and fluctuation, and changes of the consumption mix, are responsible for the most part of the determination of technology adoption for refineries surviving the 1980s.     

Emerging technologies in emerging markets: Introduction to the special section

Emerging technologies have significant implications and profound consequences for firms, markets, government policy, and society as a whole. In emerging markets, however, social uncertainties are as important as technological and market uncertainties, and moreover are somewhat more complex. The papers in this special section offer views of how these important social uncertainties can be considered concurrently with technological and market uncertainties, particularly because they play a relatively larger role in emerging markets than in more advanced markets.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Implementing a technology strategy in developing countries: The experience of the Indonesian rolling stock industry

Integration of business and technology strategies is an attractive approach for industries in developing countries. However, to be successful, these strategies cannot be implemented according to a company's objectives alone regardless of the involvement of other players. Furthermore, consideration of interrelated technologies should be included if a product resulting from the strategy is expected to perform well and be sustainable. This article attempts to give a broader view of factors to be considered in implementing business technology strategies in developing countries. Supporting evidence is given from the rolling stock industry in Indonesia, which has been implementing a type of business technology strategy.     

全球价值链驱动下的本土产业升级

全球价值链内产业升级的传递机制是企业的内生技术能力,但技术能力的演化具有明显的路径依赖.尽管全球价值链的国际链接与异质参与者的多样性能够为本土企业提供局部的外部知识,但链条内部的知识溢出并不足以实现本土企业技术能力的线性发展,也无法实现链条内部自动传递的产业升级,这就需要企业进行持续的技术学习,在充分利用全球价值链内局部知识外部性的基础上,整合企业内部与外部知识,实现技术能力的线性发展,从而推动本土产业的持续升级.     

Adoption of navigation technologies: Five historical and contemporary cases

Five navigation technologies are studied with the aim of discovering why some of them have more difficulties and take longer time than the others to develop and reach the users. The case histories of their development are presented and compared according to their technological antecedents, their applications and the organizations involved. The analysis shows that multiple stakeholders with different agendas coupled with technological uncertainties and ambiguities have a negative impact on adoption. It also shows that entrepreneurs can play a significant role in accelerating the diffusion of technological innovations if the technological system allows for the parallel development of complements or new markets. The paper also highlights the need for deeper understanding of how complex products and systems should be managed in an environment marked by interconnectedness and multiple influential stakeholders.     

Discovering quiescent meanings in technologies: exploring the design management practices that support the development of Technology Epiphanies

In contemporary business and academia, design has been increasingly viewed as an important strategic asset such that several scholars and executives have recently investigated the links among design, innovation and competitive advantage. Indeed, recent and emerging literature streams are exploring the potential contribution design can provide in valorising and differently adopting new or existing technologies [Dell’Era, Marchesi, and Verganti 2010. “Mastering Technologies in Design-Driven Innovation – How Two Italian Companies Made Design a Central Part of their Innovation Process.” Research Technology Management 53 (2): 12–23 Buganza et al. 2015. “Unveiling the Potentialities Provided by New Technologies: A Process to Pursue Technology Epiphanies in the Smartphone App Industry.” Creativity and Innovation Management 24 (3): 391–414]. This paper aims to investigate the design managerial practices able to support Technology Epiphanies, which are defined as the discovery of quiescent meanings in new or existing technologies [Verganti 2009. Design-Driven Innovation. Changing the Rules of Competition by Radically Innovating What Things Mean. Boston: Harvard Business Press]. The paper relies on four in-depth case studies developed by both primary and secondary sources: Nintendo, Kartell, Technogym and KUKA Robotics. The paper identifies three design management practices that can guide managers in the development of Technology Epiphanies: interpreting technology as an enabling platform, building double-sided network and accessing new knowledge domains.     

Labor scarcity and the turning point in the Chinese rural sectors: empirical evidences from a frontier production function study

The purpose of this study is to examine whether overemployment has existed in the Chinese agricultural sector since 2000. The moment when overemployment ceases to exist is called the ‘turning point.’ After the turning point, an economy would be classified as entering the developed stage. Since the later half of the 2000s, many studies have analyzed the turning point of the Chinese economy. However, these studies have not reached a consensus as to the existence of overemployment. Varieties of data sources for the empirical studies have affected the discrepancies of these results. This study uses the flow data (e.g., the days of work and the daily wage) rather than stock. From our estimation results, we confirm that the Chinese agricultural sector has been increasing its production efficiency. In addition, our study indicates that overemployment is decreasing in almost all provinces and some regions have achieved a turning point.     

Diffusion of steam-powered firefighting equipment in the United States: innovation adoption at the municipal level

To date, econometrics-based diffusion studies have focused almost exclusively on the timing of adoption of new technology by firms and individuals. While there are detailed case studies on the evolution of firefighting for some of the largest U.S. cities in the nineteenth century, ours is the first formal econometric diffusion study of the timing of adoption of steam-powered, firefighting engines, whose first adoption was an important initial step in the evolution from independent volunteer fire departments to centralized control at the municipal level. We find evidence that the amount of manufacturing capital at risk of fire loss played a crucial role in influencing the timing of initial adoptions of this technology. This is consistent with the argument that increased industrialization in large cities was conducive to the growth in capital-intensive firefighting and centralized control of fire departments in urban America during this period.     

环境规制背景下的企业绿色技术创新探析

技术创新是破解企业发展困境的关键.在环境问题越来越凸显的今天,企业要在环境规制背景下,实现顺利发展,技术层面,亟需实施绿色技术创新.本文探究了绿色技术创新的内涵,阐释了企业实施绿色技术创新具有实现企业可持续发展、突破绿色壁垒、利用市场机会、塑造良好社会形象等重要意义,分析了我国企业在实施绿色技术创新中存在的诸多不足,论证了其根源在于环保意识相对薄弱、组织结构不合理、政策不够得力和有效、绿色市场尚未真正形成等因素,提出了应对企业绿色技术创新予以财税、金融、法律和政策的支持、倡导人们进行绿色消费、进行相应的制度创新和组织创新等建议.