论贫益式增长与包容性增长的内涵及其政策要义

贫益式增长与包容性增长是人的发展经济学领域最新提出的两个概念,旨在重铸第三世界国家新世纪以来的发展目标。消除贫困,促进穷人的全面发展和倡导全社会机会平等、成果共享分别是贫益式增长和包容性增长的本质要求。第三世界各国政府可通过实施一揽子益贫式和包容性政策工具改变原有发展路径,彻底打破贫困恶性循环和两极分化的发展格局。     

论新时期中国的准联盟外交

近代以来,西方大国的崛起在对外关系上主要依靠联盟外交,如英、法、德等国家在欧洲的"合纵连横",日本的"与强者为伍"战略,二战后美国对北约和亚太联盟体系的经营,冷战后俄罗斯对独联体集体安全条约组织的依赖等。受制于自身独特的发展阶段以及社会主义国家性质和地缘环境,中国缺乏历史上大国崛起所拥有的"后院",中国的战略文化也排斥"势力范围"和"联盟政治"思想。作者从中国的时代需要出发,认为现阶段中国的四大外交战略——大国协调战略、区域整合战略、政治联合战略和国际危机管理战略均难以满足中国的安全需要,中国应在联盟外交与伙伴外交之外探索"第三条道路"——准联盟外交。实施这种"联而不盟"的特殊外交类型需具备四个条件:竞争性政治集团、动态性权力关系、严重性安全威胁和"统合性"战略文化。在新时期国际"多元格局"下,中国应尝试开展灵活务实、相互联动的"三环准联盟外交"——多边组织型、新兴合作型与传统友好型,它是中国实现和平发展,运筹与美国、欧洲大国、日本、印度等大国关系的战略支点。     

The challenges of policy coordination at a programme level: Why joining-up is hard to do

This article examines obstacles to policy coordination to promote development at a programme level. Contemporary efforts to promote coordination or ‘joined-up’ working across government entities highlight attempts to promote policy synergy and resource maximisation for achieving objectives that straddle the sector-specific boundaries of multiple departments. This paper assessed efforts to coordinate the actions of multiple departments towards achieving a single cross-cutting policy objective. Programme-level analysis of the Expanded Public Works Programme in South Africa revealed various reasons why joining-up is difficult to negotiate in practice. This consisted of policy goal and operational incompatibility between specialised entities, which appears sensitive to the specificity and stringency of policy goals and implementation regimens; as well as a host of difficulties related to how coordination is formally defined and designated. This included role definition and confusion, as well as the nature and locus of coordination mandates across and within individual departments.     

Notes and Communications, Horses for Courses: Why Europe Should Not Harmonise its Book Policies

European countries have similar cultural goals for books. The most common are the promotion of reading and the production of (literary) books (of a diverse nature). The extent to which the free market can achieve the cultural goals is uncertain and differs across countries. In cases where the free market does not achieve the goals or politicians do not want to accept uncertainty, a policy instrument is needed. Commonly used instruments in Europe include the fixed book price, subsidies, libraries, and lower VAT. We demonstrate that differences among European countries matter and that harmonisation of European book policies is not a good idea.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

Regional development in the Southern African development area

This article draws the conclusion that the present regional development strategy is an improvement on the previous policy of industrial decentralization, both in terms of its stated objectives and its achievements, but that it does not fully come to grips with the development problems of the Southern African development region (SADA). In spite of some very sound objectives on which the strategy is based, it still focuses too much on the development of growth points (or IDPs) and industrial development. Growth centre strategies have, however, only met with limited success, both internationally and in South Africa. A more comprehensive and bottom‐up approach to regional development is called for, but it will not be possible to finalize the regional development policy before clarity is reached on the future political dispensation of South Africa.     

South Africa's integrated environmental management policy at the crossroads of conservation and development

Sustainable development, as formulated in the 1980 World Conservation Strategy and subsequent elaborations, is being advocated in South Africa by the state through development of an integrated environmental management policy. This policy, however, does not adequately reflect the principles of sustainable development and therefore it cannot provide appropriate guidelines for the practice of integrated environmental management Accordingly, it may be said that South Africa has reached a crossroads in its quest for sustainable development.     

An empirical analysis on the effects of the inflation targeting framework on monetary policy in South Africa

This article examines the impact of the adoption of an Inflation Targeting (IT) framework in 2000 on the conduct of South Africa’s monetary policy. Taylor rule analysis is used to test empirically whether the implementation of IT in South Africa can be shown to have impacted on the conduct of monetary policy. In particular, the article analyses whether the implementation of the IT framework yields the expected changes when comparing the conduct of monetary policy pre and post the adoption of the IT framework. Thereafter, an analysis of term structure of interest rates, which serve as a proxy variable for market expectations, is used to test whether South Africa’s IT framework has resulted in more predictability and transparency in monetary policy conduct. Lastly, the article analyses the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the so‐called Great Recession, on the predictability and transparency of monetary policy in South Africa.     

Towards a science and technology‐policy for South Africa

The history of industrial development in South Africa is marked by lack of a coherent science and technology policy. The changing political and economic context has brought a recognition of the need for such a policy, especially for attaining international competitiveness. This article explores some considerations that should enter into the formulation of such a policy. It focuses on the definition of goal sets for science and technology policy and on the mechanisms needed to pursue them; discusses the debate between the structuralist and neoclassical approaches to the role of technology in growth and development; and examines the roles of various research and development agents and some of the main determinants of R&D activity for their implications for policy instruments.     

“万顷良田建设工程”中的土地权属调整研究

"万顷良田建设工程"是江苏省为促进城乡统筹和社会主义新农村建设而提出的一项政策创新。土地权属调整是这项政策顺利实施的关键。本文首先对土地权属调整的内容、原则、程序进行分析,接着针对土地权属调整过程中可能遇到的问题提出相应政策建议,为土地权属调整顺利实施提供一定参考。     

Conflict resolution and the deregulation of the South African transport sector

Transportation policy has achieved increasing recognition as a key variable influencing the development process in Southern Africa. The present paper explores the way in which the South African Transport Services have been forced to pursue two largely conflicting goals, namely to function as a commercial organisation while simultaneously obligated to further the economic and political objectives of public policy. It is argued that carefully planned deregulation provides a solution to the current impasse if certain preconditions for equal intermodal competition are established. The impact of such a policy of planned deregulation on industrial decentralisation and economic efficiency is examined, and an integrated approach is proposed to minimise any adverse effects on development.     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

普惠金融领域的研究热点及未来趋势

以中国知网（CNKI）作为数据来源,运用文献计量分析法,借助CiteSpace软件对2006—2021年普惠金融领域进行分析。结果表明：普惠金融的发展可分为线下普惠金融时期、互联网+普惠金融时期和数字普惠金融时期3个阶段,未来普惠金融的研究重点应转向乡村振兴战略下数字普惠金融的发展,为普惠金融研究的政策体系完善提供新思路。     

National and provincial PPPs: Issues of supervision and accountability

This article focuses on the key requirements for an enabling framework for the implementation of public‐private partnerships (PPPs) in South Africa. It contends that such an enabling framework should facilitate coherent government policies and legislation, secure procurement reform, enhance capacity, foster stringent ‐ albeit not constraining ‐financial regulation and put in place supportive institutional arrangements. Arguing that PPPs revolve around risk sharing between the public and private sector, value for money and affordability, key features of the South African policy environment as it affects PPPs are discussed. Amid considerable progress, policies across sectors could still be better aligned, legislative inconsistencies straightened out, procurement procedures and approaches updated to focus more sharply on value for money (rather than lowest price) and financial uncertainties countered. It is also noted that PPPs currently occur in an institutional vacuum in the public sector. It is therefore proposed that a dedicated institutional capacity be created to support PPPs more effectively.     

北京市医药健康产业政策分析——基于2014—2021年的政策文本

大力发展医药健康产业对于助推区域加快构建高精尖产业结构具有重要意义。文章以2014-2021年北京市医药健康产业政策文本为样本，从“政策工具-医药健康产业价值链”两个维度，采用政策文本分析法对政策条目进行了量化分析。得出结论：北京市医药健康产业政策总体上符合产业发展需求，起到了促进产业发展的作用，但也存在着供给面政策工具应用过溢、环境面政策工具中管制类占比过高、需求面政策工具应用不足等问题，研究提出了完善和优化北京市医药健康产业政策的对策建议，包括适当降低供给面政策工具使用频率、调整环境面政策工具分布以及突破需求面政策工具应用的局限性等，为完善北京市医药健康产业政策提供参考。     

贵州学前教育公共政策现实问题分析

重要领域公共政策的有效推进对国家和社会的发展具有重要的作用,学前教育公共政策作为政府实行学前教育目标和任务的行动依据和准则,保障学前教育事业的健康发展,并直接影响社会的发展进步。     

我国农村普惠金融的减贫增收效应研究——基于4023户农户微观数据的断点回归

文章利用全国27省份517个村庄的4023户农户微观调研数据，使用模糊断点回归方法，对农村普惠金融的贫困减缓效应和经济增长效应进行了实证检验。结果发现，在东部地区，普惠金融的发展降低了绝对贫困和相对贫困水平，促进了经济增长；在中部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平和相对贫困水平的下降，对于经济增长的促进效用不明显；在西部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平的下降，但增加了相对贫困并抑制了经济增长。基于此，文章提出在农村普惠金融的推广过程中，应注意其发展战略实施的区域差别化，以实现普惠金融积极效应的最大发挥。     

海洋战略性新兴产业集群发展的国际经验与启示——基于产业集群动力机制的分析框架

培育壮大海洋战略性新兴产业集群,是加快建设海洋强国的重要举措。为促进海洋战略性新兴产业集群的培育和发展,构建包括内源动力机制、激发动力机制在内的产业集群动力机制的分析框架。在此基础上分析美国的市场化共同培育模式、日本的产业政策的积极干预模式、澳大利亚海洋产业集群综合管理模式、韩国的内外连通模式等国际海洋战略性新兴产业集群的培育和发展经验。从发挥政府的整体协调作用、动态灵活实施普惠性的产业集群政策、完善海洋产业集群发展环境建设、合理开发和利用海洋资源环境等方面提出海洋战略性新兴产业集群培育和发展对策建议。     

History of industrial decentralization in South Africa (Part I): The regional concentration of industry and the historical basis of the policy∗

This research deals broadly with the history and development of industrial decentralization in South Africa. It provides a basic analysis of a number of inseparable historic, political and economic issues, and is presented in two parts. This first part begins by tracing the economic forces that generated current concentrated patterns of economic activity in South Africa, and goes on to review the origins of the industrial decentralization policy. It concludes that despite a relatively rigid natural regional economic structure that developed historically, and despite the continued presence of the economic forces that brought this structure about, the government commenced with a policy of industrial decentralization in 1960. The second part of the research firstly assesses the development of the policy in an attempt to indicate reasons for major changes, and secondly discusses the impact of the policy with reference to current evidence. It concludes that the industrial decentralization policy may have had serious economic consequences to date, but may nevertheless have a continued role to play in the ongoing political development of the country. The approach throughout has been to provide a relatively compact chronology of the policy and its antecedents.     

New evidence on subjective well-being and the definition of unemployment in South Africa

Access to new nationally representative, individual-level panel data from South Africa has allowed for the revalidation of Kingdon and Knight's discussion on the definition of unemployment. This paper investigates subjective well-being as a measure of comparison between labour-market statuses. It finds that on the grounds of subjective well-being the non-searching unemployed (or ‘discouraged’) are significantly worse-off than the not economically active. Moreover, evidence suggests that, with regard to the relationship between life satisfaction and labour-market status, the non-searching unemployed consistently are the worst-off. This is especially true of both the young and senior non-searching unemployed; however, the findings are largely driven by the African subsample. This paper does not advocate for a change in the official definition of unemployment but does advocate for the inclusion and recognition of the non-searching unemployed in policy relating to labour and development in South Africa.