Core Labor Standards and Competitiveness: Implications for Global Trade Policy

One of the principal arguments for inclusion of core labor standards in the WTO is that weak labor standards provide an illegitimate boost to competitiveness and may result in a "race to the bottom" in labor standards worldwide. This paper shows that, if the violation of labor standards results from discrimination against particular workers in export industries, employment, output, and competitiveness will be reduced since employment is determined by the short side of the market. If the problems arise from abuse of market power by employers, competitiveness will be similarly reduced. Only if freedom of association and collective bargaining were intended to allow workers in some sectors to restrict output and drive up wages would the absence of these standards raise competitiveness. However, if product markets are competitive, it is likely that association rights would increase output and competitiveness by raising productivity. The competitiveness argument seems either to reflect analytical confusion or to represent a cover for protectionist interests.     

Policy Implications of the Trade and Wages Debate

This paper examines the choice of policies to redistribute income in response to an increase in inequality caused by a rise in the differential wage paid to skilled labor compared with unskilled labor. The main issue is whether the appropriate policy response depends on whether the cause of the increased skill differential is 'trade'—increased competition with low-skilled workers abroad—or technological change. The analysis is conducted within the context of a two-sector Heckscher–Ohlin trade model augmented to allow endogenous determination of the level of skill.     

Collateralized Lending by Indian Banks: Some Explanations and Policy Implications

This paper draws a parallel between the extent of unsecured lending that a bank does and the screening effort extended by the bank. Since unsecured lending requires screening on the part of the bank, higher the percentage of unsecured loans in total loans, higher is likely to be the screening effort while processing loan applications. Using panel data relating to banks in India, we find that on an average a higher extent of screening effort or unsecured loans is likely to be provided by banks that are large, have low level of non-performing assets, and are in the private sector. Further, persistence in the extent of unsecured lending seems to suggest that any change in unsecured lending/ screening effort is likely to be rather slow.

     

微型金融组织研究综述及其政策含义

微型金融组织在过去三十多年的发展中,为农村发展和扶贫提供了至关重要的金融支持。相应的文献研究对微型金融组织发展的多个方面进行了总结,并为实践提供了理论指导和政策支持。本文拟对微型金融组织研究文献进行总结,主要包括微型金融组织的偿还机制、可持续性、福利效益、政府在微型金融发展中作用以及其政策含义等。     

The U.S. Banking and Corporate Structure: Some Implications for Industrial Policy

This paper argues that a fundamental aspect of the process of financialization is the transformation and evolution of certain key institutions. In national spaces, these include those that play essential roles in financing economic activity, such as the central bank and the commercial banking sector, and also the institutions that determine the quantity and form of public expenditure. In Latin American countries, these changes have reduced the possibilities of national authorities to influence financial processes.     

Monetary Policy Delegation and Transparency of Policy Targets: A Positive Analysis

Abstract. We show that, in a two‐stage model of monetary policy with stochastic policy targets and asymmetric information, the transparency regime chosen by the central bank does never coincide with the regime preferred by society. Independent of society's endogenous choice of delegation, the central bank reveals its inflation target and conceals its output target. In contrast, society would prefer either transparency or opacity of both targets. As a conclusion, the choice of the transparency regime should be part of the optimal delegation solution.     

Pre-commitment Mechanism and Policy Credibility in African Trade Reform

In the absence of a binding pre-commitment mechanism, a government has an incentive to renege on announced policy. This is a well-established result in the literature. The paper applies this theory to tariff policy by developing a two-game model to analyze the credibility of government tariff reform announcements. The pre-commitment solution is subgame-imperfect; therefore, government's announcement of tariff reforms is time-inconsistent. Using a sample of African countries operating under IMF structural adjustment programs, the study finds only weak evidence that countries implemented their announced tariff reforms. However, SAP agreements seem to enhance private sector confidence in government reforms.     

Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy With Unobservable Goals

We define and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model where the central bank's characteristics are unobservable to the private sector and inferred from the policy outcome. Increased transparency makes the bank's reputation and credibility more sensitive to its actions. This moderates the bank's policy and induces the bank to follow a policy closer to the socially optimal one. Full transparency of the central bank's intentions is generally socially beneficial but frequently worse for the bank. Somewhat paradoxically, direct observability of idiosyncratic central bank goals removes the moderating influence on the bank and leads to the worst equilibrium.     

World Agricultural Trade Reform: Implications for Australia

In this paper we assess the implications of agricultural trade reform by GATT member countries. To do this, we link two general equilibrium models, a world food trade model and the ORANI model of the Australian economy. By treating the ORANI model as an integral part of the world model, we are able to focus on the implications for Australia of world agricultural trade reform.
The findings suggest that, if price distorting agricultural policies were removed by GATT member countries, world food commodity prices would rise, some by up to 30 per cent, and world food trade expand by about a third. Australia would be a major beneficiary of these international developments, the value of its agricultural exports rising by close to 15 per cent. In 1986, this would have meant for Australia additional export earnings of around SUS750 million, as well as more rapid economic growth.     

Industrial Policy As an Alternative to Trade Policy: Helping By Hurting*

Abstract Industrial policies that are essentially nonlinear taxes or subsidies on adjustment costs of domestic firms affect those firms' market power in oligopolistic international markets. These adjustment policies often can achieve a strategic purpose at lower cost to the government than linear trade or investment subsidies and are less likely to result in retaliation by other governments. Many governments, however, use adjustment policies for nonstrategic purposes without recognizing that they are reducing their firms' market power by subsidizing adjustment costs rather than taxing them.     

Capital Mobility and Investor Confidence: The Case of Hong Kong's Reversion to China's Sovereignty

The paper hypothesizes that capital flows to and from Hong Kong in the years prior to its reversion to Chinese sovereignty were determined in part by the credibility of China's economic and political policies towards Hong Kong. During the transition period, several events occurred that caused investors, foreign and domestic, to reexamine and revise their perceptions about concentrating their investment in Hong Kong. These events were the ongoing negotiations between China and Great Britain that resulted in the signing of the Joint Resolution and the Basic Law, the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, and Deng Xaioping's visit to China's southern provinces in 1992. As a result, Hong Kong provides a particularly relevant example of the impact government policies can have on investor confidence and capital mobility.     

四川对港贸易人民币结算业务评析及政策建议

本文从对比四川对港贸易人民币结算业务发展的潜力和现状入手,得出了该业务处于初级发展阶段的基本结论.通过理论分析与实践相结合的方式,本文进一步阐述了宏观层面及微观层面制约四川对港贸易人民币结算业务发展的因素,并从四川企业对"跨境"人民币交易的真实需求出发演绎出使用人民币进行跨境贸易结算的微观条件,据此提出稳步推动对港人民币结算业务的政策建议.     

贸易对生物多样性的影响:现状、机理与政策研究

随着人类活动的增加,特别是国际贸易,导致了生物多样性的破坏.农产品贸易品通过生产中化肥的使用、土壤流失和专业化导致品种单一性,通过工业品贸易引致扩张的路径扩大自然资源的开采和对生物生存环境的污染,这些都对生物多样性产生重大影响.因此,政府应该确保所有贸易政策与生物多样性相容,加强对外来生物的管理.     

贸易政策的制度质量分析——基于制度稳定性视角的研究评述

贸易政策的制度质量分析框架除了包括制度有效性分析,还应当包括制度稳定性分析.贸易制度稳定性的重要性在于,它既是经济长期增长的需要,更是贸易制度变迁进入"梯形"上升演进通道的必要条件.贸易制度稳定性均衡主要取决于利益集团、政治风险、理性预期及政策承诺,而它又会通过投资、贸易、经济改革等渠道间接地影响贸易发展和经济增长.因此,努力构建包括制度稳定性在内的符合中国特色的贸易制度质量分析体系,用以指导探索我国贸易制度发展的路径依赖、质量提升和体系构建等一系列问题,将是后续研究的一个重要方向.     

我国货币政策透明度的实践及问题研究

当今世界各国中央银行都致力于提高货币政策透明度,基于货币政策透明度可以有效地提高货币政策有效性,越来越多的国家将其作为本国货币制度的重要选择。本文通过对我国货币政策透明度实践的深入分析,发现提高货币政策透明度对货币政策具有积极的效用,并针对当前我国货币政策透明度中存在的问题提出相应的政策建议。