A note on why more West than East German firms export

Germany is one of the most important exporters of manufacturing goods in the world, but by far not all manufacturing firms in Germany are exporters, and there is a remarkable gap between the share of exporters in all manufacturing firms between West Germany and East Germany. While in West Germany in 2004 about two in three manufacturing plants were exporters, fourteen years after re-unification this share was less than fifty percent in the former communist East Germany. Given that exports play a key role in shaping business cycles and growth in Germany, and the much higher unemployment in East compared to West Germany, promotion of exports by East German firms figure prominently on the policy agenda. However, the reasons for the large difference in the propensity to export between East and West German firms are not yet well understood, not least due to a lack of comprehensive micro data. Using unique new data and a recently introduced non-linear decomposition technique this paper shows that the huge difference in the propensity to export between West and East German plants can only partly be explained by differences in firm size, productivity, and technology intensity.

ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom

This paper develops new estimates of investment in and outputof information and communication technology (ICT). These newestimates imply that GDP growth has been significantly understated,particularly since 1994. A growth-accounting approach is employedto measure the contribution of ICT to the growth of both aggregateoutput and aggregate input. On both counts, the contributionof ICT has been rising over time. From 1989 to 1998, ICT outputcontributed a fifth of overall GDP growth. Since 1989, 55 percent of capital deepening (the growth of capital per hour worked)has been contributed by ICT capital; since 1994 this proportionhas risen to 90 per cent. ICT capital deepening accounts for25 per cent of the growth of labour productivity over 1989–98and 48 per cent over 1994–8. But even when output growthis adjusted for the new ICT estimates, both labour productivityand TFP growth are still found to slow down after 1994.     

Population dynamics and economic growth in China

This paper focuses on two major elements of China's population dynamics—the rising proportion of workers in the population and the shift of rural workers from agriculture into industry and services—in a provincial-level analysis of per capita income and productivity growth during the last three decades. We measure the ‘mechanical’ contributions of these dynamics to per capita income as revealed by growth decompositions, before assessing the determinants of per capita income and productivity growth in a series of regressions that include the growth of the working-age to total population (WAP) ratio and a measure of sectoral employment change. Our results indicate that sectoral change has made a significant positive contribution to both per capita income growth and aggregate productivity growth, stemming from its positive impact on agricultural productivity growth—as predicted by the Lewisian dual economy model. However, the negative impact of sectoral change on productivity growth in the industrial and service sectors, combined with the negative impact of growth of the WAP ratio on both per capita income and aggregate productivity growth, suggests that the benefits of China's population dynamics during the last three decades have been overstated.     

Hunger games: or how the Allied blockade in the First World War deprived German children of nutrition,and Allied food aid subsequently saved them

At the onset of the First World War, Germany was subject to a shipping embargo by the Allied forces. Ostensibly military in nature, the blockade prevented not only armaments but also food and fertilizers from entering Germany. The impact of that blockade on civilian populations has been debated ever since. Germans protested that the Allies had wielded hunger as a weapon against women and children with devastating results, a claim that was hotly denied by the Allies. The impact of what the Germans termed the Hungerblockade on childhood nutrition can now be assessed using a newly discovered dataset based on heights and weights of nearly 600,000 German schoolchildren measured between 1914 and 1924. Statistical analysis reveals a grim truth: German children suffered severe malnutrition due to the blockade. Social class impacted risk of deprivation, with working‐class children suffering the most. Surprisingly, they were the quickest to recover after the war. Their rescue was fuelled by massive food aid organized by the former enemies of Germany, and delivered cooperatively with both government and civil society. The ability of former belligerents to work together after an exceptionally bitter war to feed impoverished children may hold hope for the future.     

REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY IN INDONESIA AND THE INITIAL IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

This paper estimates regional income inequality from 1993 to 1998, using a Theil index based upon district-level GDP and population data. Between 1993 and 1997, when Indonesia's annual average growth rate exceeded 7%, regional income inequality rose significantly. A two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis indicates this was due mainly to an increase in within-province inequality, especially in Riau, Jakarta and West and East Java. In 1997, the within-province component represented about 50% of regional income inequality. The crisis caused per capita GDP growth to revert to its 1995 level, but the impact was spread unevenly across provinces and districts. In 1998 regional income inequality declined to its 1993-94 level. In contrast to 1993-97, three-quarters of the 1998 decline was due to a change in between-province inequality, with the Java-Bali region playing a prominent role. The crisis appears particularly to have afflicted urban Java and urban Sumatra.     

新疆人均收入和收入不平等的增长与收敛——基于空间面板模型

新古典经济增长模型预测,随着时间的推移,人均收入的差距将会缩小,收入不平等将会逐渐趋同。本文利用1995年—2012年新疆15个地州的空间面板数据,采用跨部门模型和空间面板数据模型,并考虑空间交互效应来检验上述预测对新疆的正确性。研究结果显示,在对教育程度、失业、产业构成、人均收入的空间滞后增长以及区域固定效应进行调控之后,人均收入存在条件收敛,而收入不平等则存在无条件收敛。     

Why was Australia so rich?

Between 1870 and 1890 Australian incomes per capita were 40 percent or more above those in the United States. About half this gap is attributable to Australia’s higher labor input per capita, and half to its higher labor productivity. The higher labor input is due in part to favorable demographic attributes and partly to a favorable workforce participation rate. The higher productivity results from an advantageous natural resource endowment. By 1914 the income lead over the U.S. had all but disappeared due to declines in Australia’s advantages both in labor input per capita and in labor productivity.     

Trade Barriers,Openness, and Economic Growth

Using a long data set on openness and productivity, this article tests the influence of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and per capita growth since 1870 for 16 industrialized countries. It is shown, in simple regressions, that growth is, by and large, independent of openness. However, once the interaction between openness and foreign knowledge is allowed for, productivity is positively affected by openness.     

American colonial incomes, 1650–1774

New data now allow conjectures on the levels of real and nominal incomes in the 13 American colonies. New England was the poorest region, and the South was the richest. Colonial per capita incomes rose only very slowly if at all, for five reasons: productivity growth was slow; population in the low‐income (but subsistence‐plus) frontier grew much faster than that in the high‐income coastal settlements; child dependency rates were high and probably even rising; the terms of trade were extremely volatile, presumably suppressing investment in export sectors; and the terms of trade rose very slowly, if at all, in the North, although faster in the South. All of this checked the growth of colony‐wide per capita income after a seventeenth‐century boom. The American colonies led Great Britain in purchasing power per capita from 1700, and possibly from 1650, until 1774, even counting slaves in the population. That is, average purchasing power in America led Britain early, when Americans were British. The common view that American per capita income did not overtake that of Britain until the start of the twentieth century appears to be off the mark by two centuries or more.     

More similar and less equal: Economic growth in the European regions

More Similar and Less Equal: Economic Growth in the European Regions. — This paper examines the growth process of 109 European regions using a new data base. Applying various statistical tools, it concentrates on per capita income and labor productivity. The main results are the following: There has been a clear process of aggregate productivity convergence across the European regions over the 1980s. At the sectoral level, there has not been convergence in agriculture, while the industrial and services sectors show ß-convergence. Most crucially, the regional dispersion in per capita income has remained almost constant so that the differences in wealth conditions of the European citizens are still extremely high.     

Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870–2001?

In this paper we examine whether or not G7 per capita income can be classified as a stationary process using data for over a century. The unit root null hypothesis is tested using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier test which allows for at most two structural breaks. We are able to reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries at the 5 percent level or better, except for Italy and Germany.     

The Role of Economic Shocks on Health: Evidence from German Reunification

Sudden economic shocks impact the everyday lives of people from one day to the next. A number of studies have examined the association between economic fluctuations and health; however, no consensus on the nature of this relationship has been established. By exploiting the dramatic economic fluctuations following the German Reunification of 1990, which included a sudden change from a socialist to a capitalist system in East Germany, this study examines the association between broad negative economic shocks and health. The article finds that increases in state unemployment rates are associated with large and statistically significant declines in health outcomes. Estimates are stronger for people who became unemployed shortly after reunification, for low‐income individuals, and for East Germans, a group confronted with larger economic fluctuations. When examining potential mechanisms that could explain the observed health deteriorations, the study finds significant reductions in exercise frequency and increases in economic uncertainty and overall stress.     

Heterogeneous production functions and regional disparity

On explaining regional differences, the current literature emphasizes the difference in factor accumulations. This paper suggests an additional possibility that regions may differ in parameter values in their production functions. In terms of the Cobb–Douglas production function, regions may differ in the share of capital in income. Using the province-level data in China, this paper shows that capital shares have a very significant and positive effect on per capita GDP. In particular, the differences in production functions explain 46.6% of the difference in per capita output between the East region and West region in China. Further, using the firm-level data, we show that the differences in regional production function are likely due to different industry compositions.     

中国各地区城乡收入收敛性实证研究

使用1991-2011年的人均收入和CPI数据,对中国东、中、西、东北部地区进行了β和σ收敛分析,实证表明:东部地区城镇、农村人均收入在1991-2011年不存在σ收敛、β收敛,即东部地区城镇、农村人均收入差距都在不断扩大;中部地区城镇、农村人均收入在1991-2011年均存在σ收敛、β收敛,且城镇人均收入每年以17.333%的速度收敛,农村人均收入每年以8.333%的速度收敛;东北地区城镇人均收入差距在不断扩大,而东北地区的农村收入每年以3.378%的速度收敛;西部地区城镇人均收入差距在缩小,每年以8.174%的速度趋于一致,而农村人均收入差距在不断扩大;中部地区人均收入在城镇、农村上收敛速度均为最大。     

German stagnation versus Swedish progression: gender wage gaps in comparison, 1960–2006

This article provides a comparative analysis of the development of the gender wage gap in West Germany and Sweden during the period 1960–2006. Despite the economic similarities including broad social safety nets, the gap has developed differently since 1960. This analysis accounts for micro- and macroeconomic factors and politics and concludes that norms and traditions penetrate institutional settings and ensnare Germany in a cultural trap with regard to gender equality. While Sweden has moved to a two-earner model, German society expects mothers to stay at home. The micro analysis shows that family concerns (e.g. marriage and motherhood) decrease female income in Germany to a far greater extent than do such factors in Sweden, which can be explained in part by deeply held social attitudes.     

The Future is in the Past: Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high‐performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross‐country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value‐added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value‐added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value‐added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.     

Does foreign direct investment promote regional development in developed countries? A Markov chain approach for US states

This paper investigates the effects of inward FDI on per capita income and growth of the US states since the mid-1970s. Using a Markov chain approach, it shows that both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of FDI affect per capita income and growth. The empirical findings suggest that employment-intensive FDI, concentrated in richer states, has been conducive to income growth, while capital-intensive FDI, concentrated in poorer states, has not. Consequently, FDI has tended to be associated with weaker rather than stronger income convergence among US states. It appears to be less important whether FDI has been undertaken in the manufacturing sector of US states or in other sectors.     

Structure and Ownership of East German Enterprises

This paper investigates the process by which East German enterprises have been privatized and their resulting ownership and control structure. A corporate system with a very high level of concentration of ownership has been created. This is particularly closely associated with ownership and direct control by West German companies. The paper argues that this has allowed East German enterprises to gain access to finance, markets, and managerial skills which they might otherwise have been denied. The resulting "insider" system of corporate control will over time allow East German companies to participate in the control of their own and West German companies. The Treuhandanstalt has organized the privatization process to achieve certain industrial and social objectives. It has broken up the large multiplant enterprises to an extent that East German enterprises are now smaller than their West German counterparts. It has used informal liquidations rather than formal bankruptcies to be able to achieve its objectives. Privatizations have not involved the flotation of companies on the stock market. Instead, the Treuhand has arranged share and asset transfers on a scale which is in excess of merger activity commonly observed in the West. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1995, 9(4), pp. 426–453. University College London, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, and CEPR; Oxford University and CEPR     

The wedge and sigma convergence among U.S. states

The paper attempts to empirically quantify the factors underlying sigma convergence among the contiguous states of the U.S. Using annual state data the study finds a significant effect of the wedge in explaining the variation in state per capita productivity. Employing a time series framework, the paper finds that an increase in the variation of 1 percent in the wedge will increase the variation in per capita productivity by roughly 0.12 percent in the short run and roughly 0.45 to 0.55 percent in the long run.     

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: Evidence from eight countries

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.