On the Time-Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the US Economy

We study the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the US Economy by using a VAR with time-varying coefficients. The coefficients are allowed to evolve gradually over time which allows us to discover structural changes without imposing them a priori. We find three different regimes, which match the three major periods of the US economy, namely the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation and the Great Recession. The initial impact on real GDP ranges between −0.2% for the Great Inflation and Great Recession and −0.15% for the Great Moderation. In addition, the adverse effects of EPU are more persistent during the Great Recession providing an explanation for the slow recovery. This regime dependence is unique for EPU as the macroeconomic consequences of Financial Uncertainty turn out to be rather time invariant.     

经济分析中的干预主义政策与非干预主义政策

市场自由还是政府干预，贯穿于整个经济学发展的全过程，也是整个经济学各个流派争论的焦点。本文旨在对这一问题进行梳理，并进行剖析，给人以一定的启示。     

The Keynesian Paradigm and Economic Policy

Abstract . Keynesian macroeconomic theory and the new theory of the hitherto neglected branch of political science, public administration, which were both independently introduced at about the same time in the New Deal period of the 1930s, complemented each other. Keynesian theory, emphasizing government fiscal policy and deficit spending as counterdepression, full-employment, and economic growth measures, became the generally accepted paradigm in economics and public finance. Public administration theory held that government agencies, motivated primarily by their own bureaucratic expansionary self-interest, would bring about an equilibrium of national interest. This provided the justification for agency initiative in stimulating and supporting the demands of interest and pressure groups whose regulation required increased agency activity. The theories and their outcome reflected the continuing decline of classical liberalism.     

The Long-Run Effect of Economic Development Policy on Resident Welfare in a Perfectly Competitive Urban Economy

This paper argues that evaluations of economic development policy must consider the long-run effect on resident welfare. The paper uses comparative static analysis of a closed, urban economy with an explicit labor market, to investigate the effect of policies that stimulate economic activity. The paper finds that such policies do not necessarily raise resident welfare, because of the competition for land between firms and households. On the other hand, the paper does find that income transfers increase resident welfare. This model assumes, however, that the land, capital, and labor markets are perfectly competitive. Therefore, these results are based on the assumption that an urban economy is efficient.     

The Nominal Framework for Economic Policy

The next Budget will almost certainly be the last one before a General Election. Despite the temptations to make electorally attractive cuts in income tax or increases in public spending, we believe the opportunity should be taken to re-affirm the government's intention to move steadily towards price stability. This is particularly important at a time when our exceptionally high real interest rates may reflect fears about a future change in policy. We provide a nominal framework which extends the Medium Term Financial Strategy to 1992–3. Given the buoyancy of revenue and the likely growth of money GDP next year, we argue that the PSBR should be no higher than £6bn next year. There is a good case for keeping it at this year's expected level of £5bn.     

亚洲经济全面复苏后的两岸经贸关系发展形势

本文主要讨论了亚洲金融危机后两岸经贸关系的发展变化过程 ,预测可能出现新一轮两岸经贸热。同时探讨了在国际大环境变化与高科技产业迅速发展下台商对祖国大陆投资的新趋势 ,即台商加快信息电子、软体与网络业的投资 ,将投资重点转向拓展祖国大陆内销市场 ,以及积极争取新兴服务业领域投资。     

The Australian Economy - Thatcherism after 7 Years?

In March 1983 Mr Malcolm Fraser's Liberal Coalition was defeated in the Australian general election. He had held office for over 7years. His Government's record on economic management can be briefly summarised as follows. At the end of 1975 when the Liberal Coalition took office the inflation rate was 14 per cent and the rate of unemployment was 5.4 per cent; in March 1983 the inflation rate was 11.5 per cent and the rate of unemployment was 10.4 per cent. It is generally thought that Mr Fraser's policies were not unlike those of Mrs Thatcher. Since he had been operating them for over seven years it is reasonable to ask why the outcome appears to have been so disappointing. In this Briefing Paper we examine recent developments in the Australian economy and make some comparisons of policies and outcomes in Australia and Britain, particularly during the past four years, when there were conservative Governments in both countries.     

如何看待体育经济发展中的经济与社会效益

体育经济的经济与社会效益巨大,如何看待体育经济发展中的经济效益与社会效益的关系,是一个具有普遍性意义的问题。本文就如何看待这个问题,简单谈一些自己的看法,并提出,要正确对待体育经济的经济与社会效益,就要做到两者并重、共同发展。并就如何更好的发挥体育的经济与社会效益提出一点自己的看法。     

开放型经济下财政政策效应的实证研究

本文构建具有一个主导单元的GVAR模型,并采用1995～2014年33个国家的数据考察了国内外财政政策对我国宏观经济的影响及其跨国溢出效应。实证结果表明：第一,国内财政扩张会促使实际产出增加,而使贸易平衡恶化、实际汇率贬值,并对其贸易伙伴国产生不同的动态影响;第二,国外财政支出的增加对中国产出具有显著的正向溢出,但各国溢出效应的强度和持续时间不尽相同,而国外财政收入对中国的溢出效应较小;第三,随着贸易开放程度的提高,本国财政政策乘数效应逐渐减小,国外财政扩张的溢出效应逐渐增大。     

循环经济的技术经济范式与政策研究

本文对循环经济技术经济范式的概念进行了定义，对其经济学特征进行了分析，并在此基础上指出，发展循环经济必须进行技术经济范式创新。通过对循环经济内涵的分析，提出了循环经济技术体系是传统技术范式的纵向延伸和横向拓展的观点，据此探讨了循环经济技术创新的内容。在对循环经济技术体系研究的基础上，提出了把循环经济技术开发与高技术研究开发一样纳入国家科技发展战略的观点，探讨了促进循环经济技术创新政策体系。     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

经济全球化下的中国经济特征与发展策略

经济全球化在我们的日常生活中急速的向我们走来,近年来每个人从自己的工作、生活等方面体会深刻。经济的全球化无疑对于国家和个人来说从包括生产、经营、竞争、管理等一系列问题起到较为深远的改变和重新定位。本文从以上情况出发,探讨了经济全球化的特征和对中国经济的影响,并提出了部分应对措施,希望能够为我国经济的更稳定发展提供一些参考。     

Economic multipliers for the Maltese Economy

The aim of this paper is to build an econometric model for the Maltese Economy and to use this model in deriving economic multipliers which may prove useful for future economic planning, particularly since Malta must find substitutes for the income derived from the Military base after 1979, the year of independence. Both the methodology and the results of this paper should be of general use to small developing economies with limited domestic resources. In Section 1 we provide an outline of the theoretical foundation of the model. This is intended to serve as a guide for noneconometricians. Section 2 considers the functional relationships between relevant economic factors. These relationships are used in Section 3 to estimate the economic multipliers. Finally in Section 4, we examine the main policy implications of the model for economic planning.     

开放经济下的经济增长模型:中国的经验

本文从三个方面,以8个分指标为基础构造了衡量对外开放程度的变量——对外开放度指数,该指数较传统的外贸依存度更好地刻画了1978~2003年间中国经济对外开放程度的变化过程。在此基础上,本文运用动态建模方法建立了开放经济下的经济增长模型,从短期和长期的角度动态地考察了对外开放对经济增长的影响,很好地模拟了开放经济下中国经济增长的变化规律。实证研究的结果证实了对外开放不仅在短期内有效地促进了经济增长,而且也显著地进入了长期均衡方程。     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

中国经济增长的动力转换与政策选择

研究目标：探究经济增长动因结构及转换趋势。研究方法：基于中国1980～2014年三次产业的时间序列数据,构造结构指数生产函数,采取指数分析与对数分析相结合的方法进行实证研究。研究发现：2008年以来全要素生产率贡献缩减是经济增长大幅减速的最主要因素;要素规模增长率下降与产出弹性缩减的双重挤压导致资本和劳动力规模贡献下滑;资本和劳动生产率增长双减速是造成全要素生产率大幅下降的主导因素;全要素生产率增长动力从以产业要素生产率的提升为主转向以产业之间要素配置结构的优化为主。研究创新：从三次产业的要素规模和效率进行考察,三个层次层层推进,为经济增长动力及其变迁轨迹分析创造更加广阔的拓展空间。研究价值：揭示了中国经济增长变迁的动因结构以及最新转换趋势,为旨在推动国民经济又快又好发展的政策设计提供了新的科学决策参考。