Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model

We propose a structural model to investigate the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand choice decisions in frequently purchased products. Forgetting results in consumers imperfectly recalling their prior brand evaluations when making a purchase decision in the category. We conceptualize the imperfect recall by positing that consumers recall their prior evaluations with noise. Based on prior research in the behavioral area, we characterize the extent of forgetting as an increasing and concave function of time. Our framework generates analytical results on the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand evaluations and their consequent purchase behavior. We calibrate our model using scanner panel data for liquid detergents. Furthermore, we obtain insights into the consumers' extent of forgetting in the category, extent of learning, predicted price elasticities and implications on state dependence and habit persistence. Our results underscore the importance of modeling consumers' ability to recall only imperfectly.     

Effects of prior brand usage and promotion on consumer promotional response

We examine how prior purchases influence consumer response to promotional activity in brand choice decisions. To improve understanding of the nature of this influence, we separate previous purchases into those on promotion and those not on promotion, and consider their differential impact on subsequent brand choices. Impact may be observed at the brand level, category level, or both and we suggest circumstances in which each might occur. Across four product categories, consumer sensitivity to price, price promotions, and feature advertisements increases for all brands in the product category following a promotional purchase but also decreases for the most recently purchased brand. The magnitudes of the results indicate that prior promotional purchases influence choice more than prior brand usage does. We offer managerial recommendations regarding promotional activities, for both retailers and manufacturers.     

Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty

We develop a model of household demand for frequently purchased consumer goods that are branded, storable and subject to stochastic price fluctuations. Our framework accounts for how inventories and expectations of future prices affect current period purchase decisions. We estimate our model using scanner data for the ketchup category. Our results indicate that price expectations and the nature of the price process have important effects on demand elasticities. Long-run cross price elasticities of demand are more than twice as great as short-run cross price elasticities. Temporary price cuts (or deals) primarily generate purchase acceleration and category expansion, rather than brand switching.     

Impact of different types of in-store displays on consumer purchase behavior

Research on consumer in-store shopping behavior does not account for the existence of different types of display locations (e.g. storefront, store rear, secondary, front end cap, rear end cap, and shelf displays). This article focuses on accounting for and understanding the impact of various displays on consumer purchase behavior based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) theory. Specifically, we study how displays closer to and farther from the main location of the focal category influence consumer purchase behavior. Furthermore, within the different types of displays we investigate the impact of specific types of displays on consumer's category purchase and brand choice and the moderating role of price and discounts. A hierarchical Bayesian model is estimated using scanner panel data for a large U.S. grocery chain that contains unique information on the number of product facings at multiple display locations within a store. We find that displays closer to the focal category have a larger impact, with front end cap displays having the largest impact on category purchase and shelf displays having the largest impact on brand choice. We also demonstrate the synergistic impact of price and discounts in enhancing the impact of displays on consumer purchase behavior and brand choice. Equipped with these findings we propose a display allocation optimization that results in an average increase in revenue of about 11.15% and a strategy to distribute displays across all locations in the store rather than letting one location dominate.     

Toward Consumer Efficiency: A Model for Improved Buymanship

This paper suggests that changes in the economic, marketing, and social environments call for alternative approaches to the traditional models of buymanship. The authors propose a shopping model that incorporates four main tenets: (1) search is conceived as a continuous process; (2) consumers take advantage of retail price competition at one point in time and over time; (3) an acceptable set of brands and stores is integral to purchase decisions; and (4) low price on an acceptable brand triggers purchase. Implications for consumer buying, research, and consumer education are identified.     

A nested logit model of brand choice incorporating variety-seeking and marketing-mix variables

We model the effects of variety-seeking and marketing-mix variables on consumers' purchases of coffee using a nested logit model. We premise that on any given purchase occasion, the utilities of brands other than the one purchased on the previous occasion may be correlated due to the consumer's tendency to seek variety or to avoid variety. This results in a two-level hierarchical model where choice on any purchase occasion is conditioned on the brand purchased on the immediately preceding occasion. Such a structure accounts for variety seeking and inertia tendencies of consumers and is consistent with a hierarchical decision process, where consumers first decide whether or not to make a repeat purchase and then decide which brand size to purchase. The assumed hierarchical structure is shown to be consistent with observed coffee purchase behavior, and the model is shown to outperform a nonhierarchical logit model in predicting consumers' brand choices.     

Estimating the effects of higher coupon face values on the timing of redemptions,the mix of coupon redeemers,and purchase quantity

One of the key decisions a manager must make in designing a coupon promotion is to decide on the face value. In this study we examine the effects of higher face values on coupon redemption timing, category purchase timing, the mix of buyers who redeem the coupon, and purchase quantity. Data from a field experiment on coupon face values are used to test the hypotheses. A new method of measuring the effects of a coupon on category purchase timing is proposed. We find that coupons per se tend to advance category purchase timing, but higher face values do not increase the magnitude of this effect. Surprisingly, higher face values appear to increase redemption rates for both the prior nonbuyers and prior buyers of the brand in a similar way. However, higher face values have little effect on the package size purchased, the number of units purchased, or the total quantity (package size times units) purchased.     

Price Awareness and Consumers’ Use of Deals in Brand Choice

There is evidence that consumer knowledge of prices is limited, implying that, on occasions, consumers may not be fully informed of prices when making a brand purchase. On such occasions, how do consumers make their brand choice decision? One possibility is that consumers use their expectation of prices. This raises an interesting question. To what extent is brand purchase either a function of preferences and posted prices or, of preferences and expectation of brand prices? Another important issue relates to the role of displays and features in simplifying consumer brand choice. First, do promotions cause consumers to restrict their attention to only promoted brands? Second, do promotions affect the price aware consumers more than the price unaware consumers? Our study uses scanner data on ketchup and peanut butter categories to answer the foregoing questions. We find that between 40 and 50% of the purchases are made by consumers using expectations of prices rather than posted prices. Consumers using price expectations may be thought of as being “unaware” of prices. We also find that promotions cause some consumers to focus exclusively on promoted brands, and this effect is greater on the price aware consumers than on the price unaware consumers. Our findings have an important bearing on the rationality of consumer expectation of prices, especially of the promoted brands. Price aware consumers act as a check against firms promoting without accompanying price cuts.     

Factors that influence manufacturer and store brand behavioral loyalty

This study examines the factors that are linked to consumer goods brands having unusually high or low behavioral loyalty, after controlling for the association between brand size and loyalty that occurs due to the ‘double jeopardy’ effect. Behavioral, or repeat-purchase loyalty is measured as the brand's average share of category requirements (in volume) among its buyers over a 12-month period. We examine a range of factors that theory or past evidence suggests are associated with higher or lower behavioral loyalty, including brand type (store brand/manufacturer brand), price level, promotion intensity, as well as average brand volume per occasion and pack size. Using extensive US panel purchasing data, we find that store brands exhibit relatively higher behavioral loyalty than manufacturer brands. We explain the theory behind this result. We also find that the brand's average pack size and volume bought per occasion has a markedly positive association with behavioral loyalty. Finally, we find that the effect of low price on excess loyalty is moderated via a positive association with average volume purchase per occasion. These findings add to the body of knowledge relating to patterns in behavioral brand loyalty for both manufacturer and store brands, as well as the marketing-mix factors that influence it.     

Pricing strategy and the formation and evolution of reference price perceptions in new product categories

This study examines the formation and evolution of reference price perceptions in new product categories. It contributes to our understanding of pricing new products by integrating two important research streams in marketing—reference price theory and the theory of pioneer brand advantage. Prior research has focused solely on products in existing or incrementally new categories, and has typically examined fast‐moving consumer goods. Using a cross‐sectional experiment to study the formation of reference price perceptions, and a separate, but related, longitudinal experiment to study the evolution of reference price perceptions, the findings suggest that the pioneer brand's initial price defines a consumer's initial reference price, whether the pioneer is following a skimming or a penetration strategy. This effect endures in later time periods where the initial price affects consumer perceptions of value and purchase intention. The study also finds that the pioneer, due to its prototypicality, has a stronger influence on reference price perceptions than the follower, creating a systematic bias to both the formation and evolution of reference price perceptions in new product categories. Thus, reference price perceptions are shaped by what the pioneer does, rather than what the follower does. Furthermore, category‐level reference prices exist and explain purchase intention, but do not improve over brand‐specific measures in this regard. These findings have implications for pricing strategy and the theory of reference prices. ©2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The competing roles of variety seeking in new brand adoption

We examine how consumers' attribute-level variety-seeking behaviors can explain their propensity to adopt a new brand in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) market. We leverage consumers' purchase history among extant brands prior to a new brand introduction as an indicator of the new brand adoption upon its launch. We incorporate variety seeking at two product attribute levels – brand and flavor – and find that variety seeking along these two dimensions predicts different outcomes for new brand adoptions. The estimation results of our discrete-time hazard model show that consumers' brand-level and flavor-level variety-seeking behaviors affect their likelihood to adopt a new brand in different manners: consumers who purchase various brands are more likely to adopt a new brand, whereas those who choose various flavors are less likely to adopt a new brand. The results also show that the new brand's price promotions and in-store displays can affect the role of variety seeking in consumers' new brand adoption. We assess the robustness of our findings by replicating our empirical model with an additional measure of variety seeking as well as a variety-seeking measure in another product category.     

The covariates of regularity in purchase timing

An examination of the timing of consumers' purchases for coffee reveals that consumers vary a great deal in terms of the regularity of their purchasing behavior. Some consumers make purchases at seemingly random time intervals, while others purchase at highly regular intervals. The measurement of regularity in purchase timing, as well as the identification of its covariates, is important in many contexts such as modeling purchase incidence and sales forecasting. We measure the degree of regularity among a sample of coffee purchasers and identify several consumer characteristics that vary with the degree of regularity in purchase timing. Results show that regularity in purchase timing is related to brand loyalty, store loyalty and deal proneness, as well as to certain pattern of routinization by the households, and that regularity may be used, along with other aspects of purchase behavior, to provide a basis for market segmentation.The authors wish to acknowledge the support of Information Resources Inc. for providing the data, and are grateful to Professor Jane T. Landwehr, University of Delaware, for her help.     

The influence of price and brand loyalty on store brands versus national brands

Abstract

This article investigates how price and brand loyalty of three frequently purchased product categories can influence the purchase decision process of store brands versus national brands. A multinomial logit model was constructed to analyse the data obtained from a consumer panel. The results confirmed that brand loyalty is the main variable which influences the purchase decision process of both national and store brands. The influence of price on the purchase decision process is product specific. There is a clear distinction between the buyer's profile of store brands and national brands. But there is no evidence of any correlation between demographic variables and national brands or store brands.     

Consumer heterogeneity in the longer-term effects of price promotions

While a significant literature has emerged recently on the longer-term effects of price promotions, as inferred from persistence models, there is very little if any attention paid to whether such longer-term effects vary across different types of consumers. This paper takes a first step in that direction by exploring whether the adjustment, permanent, and total effects of price promotions, and the duration of the adjustment period, differ between consumers segmented based on their usage rates in a product category and their loyalty to a brand. We also investigate whether such consumer segmentation will improve the forecasting performance of persistence models at both product category and brand levels. Expectations are developed based on consumer behavior theory on various effects of price promotions, such as the post-deal trough, the mere purchase effect, the promotion usage effect, and responsiveness to competitor's reactions. Evidence from household-level supermarket scanner data on four product categories is provided. We find substantial differences between consumer segments and provide insights on how managers can increase the longer-term effectiveness of price promotions by targeting each consumer segment with a different promotion program. In addition, consumer segmentation is found to significantly improve the forecasting performance of the persistence model for two of the four product categories. For the other two product categories, consumer segmentation provides forecasting performance similar to that obtained from aggregate-level persistence models.     

Profiling the reference price consumer

Researchers in marketing have devoted considerable attention to understanding how price impacts the purchase decision. Some individuals, termed memory-based reference price (MBR) consumers, take into account price expectations developed from past purchase behavior when making a current choice. Other individuals, termed stimulus-based reference price (SBR) consumers, make choices by constructing a reference point from the currently observed distribution of prices. Using a latent class model of structural heterogeneity applied to purchase histories from the toilet tissue category, we classify households in terms of the pricing mechanism used in buying decisions. We find strong evidence that memory-based (internal) reference price consumers are more price sensitive than other consumers. Moreover, we find that variables associated with the accessibility of price information are predictive of consumer use of memory-based reference prices. Managerial implications of these results are discussed.     

Purchase Behavior and Psychophysiological Responses to Different Price Levels

The aim of the study was to examine emotional processes when product prices for different brands were changed. In a within‐subjects design, the participants were presented purchase decision trials with 14 different products (seven private label and seven national brand products) whose price levels were changed while their facial electromyography (EMG) and electrodermal activity were recorded. The results suggest that low prices and national brand products induce higher positive emotions indexed with zygomatic EMG compared to high prices and private label products. Also, positive emotions are related to greater purchase intent. Naturally, a low price has also a direct positive influence on purchase intent. However, the involvement of emotions and the influence that price and brand have on elicitation of emotions may be one explanation for consumers’ varying purchase behavior. The results highlight the importance of emotional factors in pricing research and support the usefulness of psychophysiological measures in the consumer research.     

The impact of advertising along the conversion funnel

We assemble a unique data set that combines information on supermarket feature advertising with path-tracking data on consumers’ movement within the store as well as purchase information. Using these novel data, we trace out how advertising affects consumer behavior along the path-to-purchase. We find advertising has no significant effect on the number of consumers visiting the category being advertised. The null effect is precisely estimated. At the upper bound of the confidence interval, a one-standard-deviation shift in advertising increases category traffic by only 1.3%. We do find a significant effect at the lower end of the conversion funnel. A one-standard-deviation change in advertising (evaluated at the point estimate) increases category-level sales by 10%. We further decompose the impact on sales and find the increase is driven by the same number of consumers buying a larger number of products of the same brand. We find no evidence of spillover effects of advertising between categories that are stocked in proximity of each other, nor between different products in the same category. Two mechanisms are consistent with these patterns: consumers retrieve memory of the ad only when interacting with the category or only consumers wanting to purchase the brand choose to consume the ad.     

The impact of search costs on consumer behavior: A dynamic approach

Prices for grocery items differ across stores and time because of promotion periods. Consumers therefore have an incentive to search for the lowest prices. However, when a product is purchased infrequently, the effort to check the price every shopping trip might outweigh the benefit of spending less. I propose a structural model for storable goods that takes into account inventory holdings and search. The model is estimated using data on laundry detergent purchases. I find search costs play a large role in explaining purchase behavior, with consumers unaware of the price of detergent on 70 % of their shopping trips. Therefore, from the retailer’s point of view raising awareness of a promotion through advertising and displays is important. I also find a promotion for a particular product increases the consumer’s incentive to search. This change in incentives leads to an increase in category traffic, which from the store manager’s perspective is a desirable side effect of the promotion.     

Can't Buy Me Green? A Review of Consumer Perceptions of and Behavior Toward the Price of Organic Food

Support for organic farming is a promising policy for improving sustainability in the food sector. Further consumer demand, however, is hindered by high prices. We review research from 2000 to 2014 on the role of perceived price, income, price knowledge, willingness to pay, and reactions to price changes on organic food. We find that price is the major perceived barrier to purchase. Income is only a partial explanatory factor and is superseded by psychographic variables. Willingness to pay a premium is around 30% (ranging from 0% to 105%) and depends on consumer segments and product category. Price knowledge is vague, and organic consumers' price sensitivity is relatively lower than that of occasional or nonorganic consumers. The results suggest that further market differentiation in terms of organic consumer segments and food categories is necessary. Furthermore, we discuss detailed implications for public policy and practice and present a future research agenda.     

Price Knowledge for Services: An Empirical Investigation

ABSTRACT

This study extends the price recall literature into the service sector. The authors surveyed 169 adults and asked them to recall the last price they paid for nine commonly purchased services. The findings indicate that most consumers (53%) cannot recall the last price they paid, 13% had an inaccurate price memory, and 34% remembered an accurate price. The findings also indicate that the ability to recall a price, and to recall an accurate service price varies significantly by service. Other mediating variables include frequency of usage, home ownership, and education. No other demographic variables were related to either price recall or recall accuracy.