中国政府储蓄率:新的测算及财政视角的分解

国家统计局资金流量表提供了一个研究政府储蓄问题的基本框架.但是,基于国民经济核算的政府储蓄和财政统计中的财政盈余(赤字)并不是一个概念,两者既有联系,又有区别.本文按照资金流量表的编制原理和财政分析的基本原理,通过对政府储蓄计算过程的分类、整合,构造了一个政府储蓄的财政视角分解框架,将政府储蓄问题与财税问题关联起来.在此基础上,本文将我国政府储蓄的各构成项与英国、德国、美国、日本和韩国作国际比较.研究结果表明,1998-2008年,中国的政府储蓄率已经从4.83％上升至11.98％;国际比较的结果表明,中国的高政府储蓄率的主要原因在于,扣除社保缴款后的宏观税负过高,政府消费占GDP比重偏低.除此之外,经常转移中的社会保险福利和社会补助支出不足也是导致我国政府储蓄率高于其他国家的重要原因.     

我国高储蓄率与收入分配差距关系探讨

近年来，“低消费、高投资”是我国内部经济失衡的突出表现，通过对储蓄结构的分析可知，我国的高储蓄是形成居民收入分配不均的原因之一，同时居民收入分配差距拉大致使中国的消费长期在低水平徘徊，使我国经济陷入一个“高储蓄、高投资”恶性循环。由此，采取有效措施把政府和国有经济部门的储蓄率降下来是关键。     

如何认识和推动消费信贷

消费信贷在我国还是一个新事物,很多问题亟待研究。本文第一部分论述消费信贷效应问题,第二部分为解决个人消费信贷风险和还款保障问题提供思路。一、消费信贷的宏微观效应分析消费信贷是一种负储蓄,即把一部分储蓄再转化为消费基金。如果说储蓄转化为投资是储蓄走向的顺流的话,消费信贷就是储蓄走向的逆流或回流。回流的结果是降低储蓄率,扩大消费规模,减少可用于投资的资金,从而改变生产与消费的平衡关系。当一个社会生产不足、商品短缺、急需扩大生产能力时,消费信贷会使生产落后于消费的局面更加恶化。而当生产过剩、市场疲软时,消费信…     

中国高企业储蓄分析

改革开放以来,我国经济增长方式的主要特征是高储蓄、高投资和出口导向。储蓄既是收入减去消费的余额,又是投资的唯一来源。储蓄问题是宏观经济学的基本问题之一,我国宏观经济中的诸多问题最终也可归因于我国的高储蓄特征。本文按照国民经济运行的三大部门——居民、企业和政府部门的分类,发现企业储蓄高是我国高储蓄的重要原因。深化金融市场改革,加快资本市场建设,减少中小民营企业的流动性约束,降低私营企业留存收益比重,同时大力发展消费信贷,培养上市公司发放现金股利的习惯,将有助于解决这一问题。     

投资率本质上是由消费率决定的

在分析我国低消费、高储蓄、高投资态势的内在形成机理时,一些学者在讨论中往往简单地判定二者之间具有直接此消彼涨的关系,甚至将高投资率视为低消费率的原因,这是值得讨论的。从逻辑上说,对消费投资比例关系的分析应从消费储蓄比例开始,然后才是储蓄投资的关系,储蓄是消费与投资关系的中介。在宏观经济分析中,消费决策同时也就是储蓄决策,二者是等价的。而储蓄与投资虽然有着极其密切的本质性联系,即为投资提供资金来源,但二者的决策过程并不是同一的,其形成机理也完全不同。储蓄的最主要行为主体是居民,其动机主要是考虑当前消费与未来消…     

探析我国居民储蓄组成与内需拉动

居民内需不足问题一直困扰着我国的经济发展,以过去的经验看,拉动消费需求却不那么容易。目前,巨额的居民储蓄被普遍认为是刺激消费的重要资金来源。本文分析了居民储蓄结构和来源,以及消费需求结构,在此基础上分析了高储蓄率、低消费率的原因,据此本文提出了从储蓄与消费角度拉动内需的若干对策。     

农村居民储蓄与"三农"问题

笔者从总量特征、影响因素和储蓄目的等几个方面对我国农村居民储蓄进行了分析,并在此基础上得出结论,认为解决我国农村经济发展、储蓄过高和消费不足问题的现实途径在于加快农村金融市场建设,促进储蓄向投资的转化,并在提高农民收入的基础上使农村消费和经济发展进入相互促进的良性循环.     

当前我国宏观经济的内外失衡及调整

我国目前宏观经济运行中内外失衡较为严重,储蓄率过高、消费需求不足、投资低效、失业率上升与国际收支巨额双顺差同时并存。尽管内外失衡是开放宏观经济运行的“常态”,短期内有其存在的必然性,但长期的内外失衡有悖于经济的持续发展。内外失衡并存的根本原因在于内部失衡,协调内外均衡的有效途径就是要转变我国过度依赖外需的经济发展模式．使我国经济发展建立在内需为主的基础之上。     

农村居民储蓄与“三农”问题

笔者从总量特征、影响因素和储蓄目的等几个方面对我国农村居民储蓄进行了分析，并在此基础上得出结论，认为解决我国农村经济发展、储蓄过高和消费不足问题的现实途径在于加快农村金融市场建设，促进储蓄向投资的转化，并在提高农民收入的基础上使农村消费和经济发展进入相互促进的良性循环。     

谁都惦记着十万亿储蓄

高储蓄的深层原因在于信心缺乏，不是对宏观经济发展信心不足，而是对投资效果和未来保障的心里没底     

China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences

In recent years, China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and production, producing external imbalance, i.e. a huge surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. Both imbalances imply a low rate of time discount by both government and society: consumption in the present is forgone in favour of consumption in the future. The paper examines how these imbalances came about and goes on to consider whether they can be sustained and how they might be redressed. There is no evidence that the rapid capital accumulation has reduced the rate of profit on capital and thus the incentive to invest. However, persistent external imbalance poses a threat to investment if it generates excess liquidity and asset bubbles. The current account surplus rose remarkably in the years 2004–07. This was associated with exogenous increases in competiveness and in saving, both attributable to the economic reform policies. On current policies, the surplus is likely to rise again once the world economy recovers from its recession. This poses three sorts of problems, each of which is examined in turn: difficulties for macroeconomic stabilisation policies; risk of capital loss on the foreign exchange holdings; and the threat of retaliation by China’s trading partners. A combination of internal and external policies will be required to redress the imbalance.     

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Investment under Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from the Brazilian Economy

The use of interest rate as the main tool by which central banks implement inflation targets points to a strong link between private investment decisions and monetary policy. With the objective of contributing to the literature surrounding macroeconomic determinants of investment under inflation targeting, an empirical analysis through Generalized Method of Moments models for the Brazilian case is made. In a general way, the findings underscore the relevance of macroeconomic variables for the determination of investment. In particular, we find that success inflation targeting creates a stable macroeconomic environment that promotes private investment.     

宏观经济政策反思及其转型的框架设计

前几年实行的财政政策中,企业税费负担增长过快抑制投资需求与增发国债扩大投资需求相互抵消;发行国债的增速在下降,还本付息比例在上升,国债发行扩大投资的边际效用在递减;国债主要投资于短期增加就业和拉动增长的基础项目上,其增长和就业连续性较弱.而货币政策方面,降低利率和存款准备金率以及公开市场业务操作等总量性的政策,对扩大贷款,特别是对推动增长和增加就业最有用的中小企业的放款,几乎没有作用.贷存比和对中小企业的贷款持续下降和相对减少.因此,需要从行政取向国债为主的财政政策和总量性的货币政策,转向市场取向刺激社会投资的财政政策和体制及结构性的货币政策.减少税费负担,实行投资税收抵扣制,对积极为中小企业贷款的银行给予税收优惠;大力发展社会资本的中小银行,同时鼓励民间中小企业信贷担保公司的发展,放宽资产抵押、担保和信用贷款的一些政策,调整银行呆坏账准备金的使用结构,为中小企业贷款服务.如果财政政策和货币政策转型,则在未来的三四年中,失业率可以从目前的年10%-11%下降到5%-6%,国内消费增长率从目前的8.5%左右提高到年12%-13%,消费物价走出持续低迷,并且GDP每年以8%的速度再增长三到四年.     

Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment

A model of macroeconomic complementarity is used to assess causes of comovement in investment spending across nine sectors of the U.S. economy. It is hypothesized that the irreversibility and uncertainty of investment spending imply a greater role for investment linkages and aggregate factors in investment fluctuations compared with estimates for employment and output. For the average sector, past investment growth across all sectors, changes in aggregate demand, and a common factor account for two-thirds of the variance of investment growth. After accounting for aggregate demand, sectoral shocks explain 70% of the average sector’s innovations to investment growth.     

中国：高储蓄、高投资和高增长研究

本文探讨了中国经济发展过程中长期存在的高储蓄、高投资和高增长并存的现象。文章认为：人口红利、工业化、城市化和市场化改革，是造成中国经济“三高”的实体经济因素和体制因素，这些因素并不能由宏观经济政策予以调整。文章最后提出了大力发展直接融资的改革对策。     

巨灾情境下政府财政支出结构变动对我国宏观经济的动态效应研究--基于三部门DSGE模型的数值分析

基于动态随机一般均衡理论( DSGE),从罕见灾难的角度出发,分析政府投资结构变动对我国宏观经济平稳发展产生的潜在风险。研究表明,政府投资性支出过度无论在单一财政支出形式还是复合型财政支出形式下对灾难经济体均表现出显著的负效应,其对私人投资的挤出效应加剧了我国经济的风险,而服务性支出以及其他支出形式在灾难经济体中的影响相对较小。同时,通过区分TFP 灾难、资本灾难和双重灾难三种情形,分别探讨不同灾难类型对宏观经济的影响,研究发现,双重灾难对宏观经济的整体冲击远大于TFP灾难和资本灾难对经济的影响; TFP灾难与资本灾难各有侧重, TFP灾难对企业产出、居民消费及私人投资的冲击最小,资本灾难对就业的影响最弱。     

Analysis of Domestic Factors Affecting Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil

Developing markets have increasingly gained prominence in the world economy, but the domestic factors behind this success are not well established. This uncertainty may interfere with multinational expansion plans. In this article, we examine several macroeconomic and institutional factors affecting Brazilian outward foreign direct investment in 17 destination countries. We applied a pooled ordinary least squares regression over the 2001–2014 period. The findings suggest that macroeconomic factors are still statistically significant to explain investment abroad, but several institutional factors such as corruption have emerged, having a negative effect and political violence having a positive effect on Brazilian outward foreign direct investment.     

Distributional Effects of Public Investment when Wealth and Classes are Back

In developed economies, wealth inequality is high, while public capital is underprovided. Here, we study the impact of heterogeneity in saving behavior and income sources on the distributional effects of public investment. A capital tax is levied to finance productive public capital in an economy with two types of households: high income households who save dynastically and middle income households who save for retirement. We find that inequality is reduced the higher the capital tax rate is and that low tax rates are Pareto‐improving. There is no clear‐cut trade‐off between efficiency and equality: middle income households’ consumption is maximal at a capital tax rate that is higher than the rate which maximizes high income households’ consumption.     

Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow reflects heterogeneous expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals, and currency markets learn about the state of the economy gradually, then order flow can have both explanatory and forecasting power for exchange rates. Using one year of high frequency data collected via a live feed from Reuters for three major exchange rates, we find that: i) order flow is intimately related to a broad set of current and expected macroeconomic fundamentals; ii) more importantly, order flow is a powerful predictor of daily movements in exchange rates in an out-of-sample exercise, on the basis of economic value criteria such as Sharpe ratios and performance fees implied by utility calculations.